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Wednesday, August 31, 2011

OIL RESERVES AND THE SENECA CLIFF

At the end of 2005, The Economist showed the following:


In June of this year, The Economist showed essentially the same bar graphs, but Venezuela had jumped to #2 with slightly more than 200 billion barrels of oil reserves.  These are heavy oils and expensive to produce.  Venezuela's remaining oil reserves ROSE from 73 to 234 years, Saudi Arabia's 66 years  ROSE to 72.4 years, Iran's dropped from 93 to 88 and the United States dropped from 12 years to 11.3 years.

The Oil Drum consistently and comprehensively reports on petroleum.  Their lead article today is:

The Seneca Effect: why decline is faster than growth



This is the Seneca Cliff:

Who is Seneca?  Click on that blog site to find out.

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The Dow Jones Industrials jumped 54 to 11,614, sneaking 0.31% above what it was at the start of the year.  All major world markets also increased, Europe in particular from 2% to 3%.  Tokyo Electric Power, most people don't know, actually dropped from more than 30 to less than 15 from about a year ago until March 11, when Fukushima happened.  Then the crash down to 5, where it remains today, a drop of 83% from a year ago.


Gold dropped $5/toz to $1824 and oil remains steady (Brent at $115/barrel and WTI at $89/barrel.)


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Tropical Storm Katia at 70 MPH, will very shortly become a hurricane, and strengthen into a Category 2 over the next few days.  



However, current projections show her heading in a more northernly direction than Irene at this early stage in the Caribbean.


Tropical Storm Talas will become a typhoon by Friday, with eye projected to be over Osaka and Kyoto very early Saturday morning:


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