MY SECOND TAILGATE and a MORPHING DORIAN

This is week one of NCAA football (the previous one was week zero) and first weekend of NCCA Women's Volleyball.  As successful as the Rainbow Warriors men's football team was, beating Arizona, the players showing greater promising potential are the ladies.

But first, my epicurean volleyball tailgate, which occurred on my 15 Craigside lanai.  Women's volleyball demands something more refined.  I started with some leftover New England Clam Chowder from a previous dinner in the dining room and take-home Assagio bread from our poker group dinner, which I toasted in butter.  Fried some scallop slices in olive oil, then poured in the soup, plus half a cup of Carnation evaporated milk:

The lanai tailgate of enhanced New England Clam Chowder and crispy bread, with endive, radicchio. sea asparagus and goose-liver pate', plus Kirin Beer and a 2016 14% Stanford Governor's Selection Goldschmidt Russian River Valley Chardonnay:

Made open-face sandwiches with the pate':

I had some Castello Blue Cheese and Salmon Caviar, but felt the above was sufficient, so perhaps in Part 2 of Tailgate 2.

Note those mostly hidden peppers:

The unranked Hawaii versus #21 University of San Diego volleyball game was a thriller, with Hawaii losing the first two of three.  They then  recovered by winning games four and five.  Hawaii played with two setters and no libero.

This is a totally different Hawaii team, playing only two starters from last year, with five freshmen and four transfers, three from the University of Oregon and one from Utah.  The transfers had some past link to Hawaii.  However, I don't quite understand transfer requirements for NCAA women, as at least two of them are now juniors with two years of eligibility left, and did not have to rest a year.  St. Johns and #12 Washington still to come this weekend.

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The big story this weekend, though, is what could well become Super Hurricane Dorian, who has morphed again, and might now totally miss Florida, and never make landfall:

A week or more behind Dorian is possibly Fernand, for Erin has weakened.   Bet you didn't know she was lurking just north of Dorian.

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TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME

Many of you don't bother keeping up with the news, and those that do only glance at the op-ed page of a newspaper.  I will thus quickly summarize one that appeared Wednesday (by libertarian Megan McArdle, who curiously enough, works for The Washington Post) and the other on Thursday (by Ann McFeatters, a syndicated columnist, who must be liberal).

McArdle's--When will Trump supporters finally say, "Okay, this is not normal"?--starts with:

The left had an easy time settling on its attitude toward President Trump’s supporters: a mixture of horrified outrage and sneering contempt. For many of us on the right, though, it hasn’t been so easy. The president’s boosters aren’t our natural enemies; they’re former and hopefully future allies. For three years, we’ve been struggling to find some way to discuss Trump.

So, clearly, she is on the right in sympathy with Trump supporters.  However, keep in mind that there are significant differences between libertarians and conservatives.  But that's neither here nor there in this specific conversation.

But she argues that everything about Donald Trump is not worth the transient joy of watching liberals have conniptions.  Yet, she understands the attitude of her comrades, for the liberal establishment's radicalism has left them no choice but support the race-baiting vulgarian.

The religious right clings to Trump because he promises to be on their side.  McArdle?  She has introduced the Trump Derangement Syndrome (honest, Wikipedia actually recognizes this attitude) to fit-in at cocktail parties.

More recently came Greenland, where that supposedly successful real estate baron did exactly what buyers don't do:  announce their intention to the world.  Then cancel a planned trip to Denmark because their Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen called the idea "absurd," which as rejections go, is fairly tame.  Thus, his fragile vanity botched what might have been a good deal if he went about this right.

So McArdle adds:

This is not normal. And I don’t mean that as in, "Trump is violating the shibboleths of the Washington establishment."  I mean that as in, "This is not normal for a functioning adult."

And finally:

The longer you humor people who have clearly gone off the rails, the more time they have to damage themselves and those around them. Moreover, the damage is usually fiercest to the people closest by — which in Trump’s case means the folks who have been standing loyally behind him for the past three years.

That was good humor.  Ann McFeatters writes a fairly standard opinion piece summarizing the latest Trump aberrations, suggesting, now, the end of U.S. global leadership:

One photograph said it all. At the meeting in France of the world's seven richest democracies on climate change and the catastrophic fires in the Amazon, there was an empty chair. Donald Trump did not even show up.

Even as global anxiety about the Amazon ratcheted up, Trump ordered increasing logging in Alaska's own rainforest, the Tongass National Forest.

The empty chair in France was a snapshot of the official end of responsible American global leadership. Perhaps forever if Trump is reelected.

Further:

They found Trump's incomprehensible fondness for Russian dictator Vladimir Putin -- despite his invasion of Ukraine, illegal annexation of Crimea, downing of a Malaysian airliner and interference in U.S. elections -- to be dangerous.

(It must be re-emphasized that the former G-8 expelled Russia for its actions in Ukraine and Crimea. None of the other leaders wants to normalize relations with Russia. Only Trump is eager to invite the bear back around the campfire.)

Incredibly enough, yesterday Trump said he is considering blocking a quarter billion dollars of military aid to Ukraine.

What else?

China is using tear gas on Hong Kong citizens frightened of domination by Chinese communists. Armed soldiers are perched on city outskirts. There is no U.S. protest.

Saudi Arabia beheads an American journalist with no penalty.

American farmers and manufacturers face ruin. Consumers pay hundreds of dollars a year more in taxes because of Trump's tariffs.

Finally:

It takes a long time to get lost respect back. Sometimes, it never happens.

Oh, that's Ann McFeatters to the right.

Let me add one more Trump screamer reported today in The New York Times:

     Curbs on Methane, a Potent Greenhouse Gas, to be Relaxed in U.S.

To quote:

The rollback plan is particularly notable because major energy companies have, in fact, spoken out against it — joining automakers, electric utilities and other industrial giants that have opposed other administration initiatives to dismantle climate-change and environmental rules.

I've been editorializing on The Venus Syndrome for a very long time.  You say, what's the big deal about methane, as it is the dominant component of natural gas?  Well, for one, it is from 15 to 100 times worse on a molecular comparison with carbon dioxide, depending on various factors.

Trump has this thing about kicking and insulting pet peeves, and global warming is on the same level with Barack Obama and wind energy.  Note the disdain he showed in ticking off the G7 gathering in France by skipping the environmental session.  Of all his sins, this one could well seal the doom for him, and, unfortunately, Planet Earth and Humanity.

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Well, as predicted a few days ago, Hurricane Dorian will attain Category 4 status and crash into Florida on Monday.  The landfall zone has shifted south from Vero Beach to just north of West Palm Beach:

However, weathermen have kept adjusting their predictions, and Dorian could well do just about anything, including stalling, reaching Super Hurricane status (more than 150 MPH), sneaking into the Gulf of Mexico, re-strengthening, and heading for New Orleans.  Mind you, no one has even suggested this scenario yet, but here is a current graphic of potential:

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A MONSTER CALLED DORIAN IS HEADED FOR FLORIDA

Yesterday I reported that Hurricane Dorian would make landfall as a Category 2 close to where the Florida Solar Energy Center once was located.  No more, for the latest projection is as a monster Category 4, but with the eye making contact with a portion of Florida without any major population concentration:  somewhat north of Vero Beach.

However, something about Dorian, but prognosticators keep changing their predictions, for the following map remains possible:

Dorian reminds me of Super Hurricane Andrew at the end of August in 1992.  I quote Wikipedia:

Andrew began as a tropical depression over the eastern Atlantic Ocean on August 16. After spending a week without significantly strengthening itself in the central Atlantic, it rapidly intensified into a powerful Category 5 hurricane while moving westward towards the Bahamas on August 23. 

Though it briefly weakened to Category 4 status while traversing the Bahamas, it regained Category 5 intensity before making landfall in Florida on Elliott Key and then Homestead on August 24. With a barometric pressure of 922 mbar (27.23 inHg) at the time of landfall in Florida, Andrew is the sixth most-intense hurricane to strike the United States. 

Several hours later, the hurricane emerged over the Gulf of Mexico at Category 4 strength, with the Gulf Coast of the United States in its dangerous path. After turning northwestward and weakening further, Andrew moved ashore near Morgan City, Louisiana, as a low-end Category 3 storm. After moving inland, the small hurricane curved northeastward and rapidly lost its intensity, merging with a frontal system over the southern Appalachian Mountains on August 29.

Interestingly enough, just around the time Andrew began to form, a tropical wave exited the AFRICAN coast, and moved across the Atlantic, brushed South America, crossed Central America near Panama on August 28, the day before Andrew lost hurricane status.  On September 5, this "wave" became Tropical depression 18-E, 2500 east-southwest of Hilo.

I remember this period well because I spent my birthday the next day in Eugene, with my wife and brother plus wife, where we went on the 7th to a football game where the University of Hawaii beat Oregon.  That day a nondescript depression became Tropical Storm Iniki.  On September 9 it was upgraded to Hurricane Iniki.  We were driving to Colorado Springs, but spent September 10 in a Salt Lake City motel.  I turned on the TV and saw Iniki appearing to be just south of Honolulu.  I tried to call contacts back home, but could not reach anyone.  

On September 11 Hurricane Iniki at a peak of 145 MPH struck Kauai.  However, the Navy's Makaha Ridge radar station recorded a gust of 227 MPH.  Six were killed and damages of up to $10 billion (in 2019 dollars) were caused.  

How do I know so much?  A good friend from NOAA, John Carey, led the Department of Commerce team that documented the whole story of Hurricane Iniki.

We went to the UH-Air Force game, won by Hawaii, 6-3.  The Air Force Academy this year comes to Honolulu on October 19.

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FROM BLUE EVOLUTION TO BLUE REVOLUTION

I generally reserve Wednesdays for the latest in science and technology, particularly renewable energy, global warming and the Blue Revolution.  So where are we on this so-called Blue Revolution?




Let me first send you to a 2012 posting on THE STORY OF BLUE REVOLUTION HAWAII, for it provides the background that begins in 1976 with John Craven and Kiyonari Kikutake, four years after I first arrived on the Manoa Campus as an assistant professor of engineering.






Craven and his students actually built a floating platform, but, alas, it sank in Kaneohe Bay, and I'm afraid it's still there.



Around this time, John did go on to create the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii at Keahole Point on the Big Island of Hawaii.




I found myself working for U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga in 1979, when Lockheed successfully tested the 50 kW Mini-OTEC off this lab.  Matsunaga had asked the U.S. Navy to provide the barge for the facility.


I was asked by the Senator to work with the Energy and Natural Resources to draft the first bill for OTEC.  The U.S. Congress passed this legislation and President Jimmy Carter signed it as Public Law Number 96-5796 in 1980.  We wrote-in a national goal of 10,000 MW of OTEC by 1999.  Yes, that's me to the right.

I returned to the University of Hawaii in 1982 and with the new dean of engineering, Paul Yuen, we founded the Pacific International Center for High Technology Research, which secured $25 million in funding to build a 250 kW open cycle OTEC system at the Natural Energy Laboratory of Hawaii Authority in the early '90's.  Getting the U.S. to work with Japan on this partnership was indeed an adventure.

Around this time, State Senator Richard Matsuura (who had worked for Norman Borlaug in the Green Revolution) and I presented the first paper on the Blue Revolution at the First Very Large Floating Structures Conference.  He unfortunately a few years later passed away from cancer.

In 1992, NOAA's Chief Ocean Technologist Joe Vadus and I co-chaired a workshop to design a 100,000 square foot (one hectare) floating platform at a cost of $500 million, "only" half the cost of one B2 bomber, with a target date of 2000.

The Blue Revolution required a functional OTEC powerplant, and the beauty of this all was that you could generate electricity, freshwater, next generation fisheries and a whole host of sustainable products, while possibly eliminating future hurricanes and remediating global warming.

In 1996 Andy Trenka of PICHTR and I were asked by UNESCO to write a book for them on OTEC.  This led to a long-term relationship with the United Nations in Paris.  We established links with Norway, the UK, Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea and even Mauritius.

Thus, we set out to develop the potential pathways to feed into the Blue Revolution:

The University of Hawaii was selected as the National Science Foundation Marine Bioproducts Engineering Center in 1998 with funding of $12 million.  The primary focus was on marine microorganisms to produce high value biopharmaceuticals and nutraceuticals.

In 1999, a team led by Fujio Matsuda, Joe Vadus (right) and I wrote in SEA TECHNOLOGY on The Ultimate Ocean Ranch.  PICHTR hosted several next generation fishery workshops and summits, in Honolulu (1997), Tokyo (2004) and Bergen (2005), the latter resulting in the Bergen Declaration for Next Generation Fisheries.

In 2003 I was invited by UNESCO of the United Nations to provide the Anton Bruun Memorial Lecture on OTEC and the Blue Revolution.  I would say that interest in this concept was at a peak during this period.

From the Blue Revolution Hawaii blog site, let me now send you to three articles I published in The Huffington Post:

      The Dawn of the Blue Revolution

       Blue Revolution

       The Blue Revolution is the Optimal Solution for Japan

All the above eventually led to the formation of Blue Revolution Hawaii in 2010, inspired by Guy Toyama, who, at the age of 42 two years later passed away from complications while running a marathon.  The organization is now largely spearheaded by Leighton Chong and Benny Ron.

Clearly, the Blue Revolution will  not happen until OTEC can be proven to work.  Two years ago I posted on:

    THE CURRENT STATUS OF OTEC

Just click on that to get up-to-date on this subject.  Nothing important has happened since then.  I should end here, but I'll pontificate a bit on why.






I Googled "what is the status of OTEC today."  The first item was a paper written by Kobayashi, Jitsuhara and Uehara.  I suspect this article was published just around 2002, 17 years ago, because the most recent publication cited was from 2001.  I know Haruo Uehara well, for he led the OTEC program at Saga University in Japan, and was then the most active researcher in this field.  Just around that time I was invited to Saga to talk on the Blue Revolution.  In 2012 I had lunch with him at Hau Tree Lanai.  This is a photo of him with his wife and OTEC colleagues.

Item #4 on the internet was Uehara's paper on THE PRESENT STATUS AND FUTURE OF OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY CONVERSION.  It was published in 1995.

In 2013 there was a press release trumpeting a Lockheed Martin and China partnership on an OTEC power plant off Hainan by 2017.  Of course it was never built. and I've seen no recent update.

The sixth entry was OTEC by Wikipedia, and to quote:

• In July 2014, DCNS group partnered with Akuo Energy announced NER 300 funding for their NEMO project. If successful, the 16MW gross 10MW net offshore plant will be the largest OTEC facility to date. DCNS plans to have NEMO operational by 2020.^[33]

As far as I know, nothing happened.

The Ocean Energy Council examined the future of OTEC:

Were its vast potential harnessed, OTEC could change the face of energy consumption by causing a shift away from fossil fuels. Environmentally, such a transition would greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and decrease the rate of global warming. Geopolitically, having an alternative energy source could free the United States , and other countries, from foreign oil dependency. As Huang said, “We just cannot ignore oceanic energy, especially OTEC, because the ocean is so huge and the potential is so big… No matter who assesses, if you rely on fossil energy for the future, the future isn’t very bright…For the future, we have to look into renewable energy, look for the big resources, and the future is in the ocean.” 

But that was written in 2015.

Or, from Maria Online:

▪ Ocean thermal energy ‘ideal’ to power Maldives: Study - ETEnergyworld.com
▪ Govt declares ocean energy as green power - BusinessLine
▪ Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Plant Market Size, Analysis, Segmentation, Recent Developments and Top Players Forecast To 2026 - Sustainable Energy Forms

So I clicked on the third one, which was written by Jesse Denton only 15 hours ago, and he cited Fortune Business Insights:

Some of the leading players operating in the global Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Plant market include:

• Akuo Energy
• Bluerise BV
• Bardot Group
• Makai Ocean Engineering
• OTEC International LLC
• NELHA
• DCNS
• UTM OTEC

And:

The increased spending on oil and gas across the world is another factor likely to drive the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Plant Market. Rising investments in energy efficiency projects backed by governments may also stimulate growth in the market. The penetration of renewable sources is increasing, fueling demand for energy and which is expected to drive the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Plant Market.

How can they be so optimistic?  Then I got to their marketing page.  If you want to read the whole report, I think the cost is $4850, but you can go there and find out for yourself.

There was a lot more from Maria, but one item caught my eye:  an ad for Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion, a book I co-wrote with Andy Trenka.  Apparently you can get this priceless publication from them for $146.  But Amazon sells it for $100.  So I show the cover again.  I don't get the money, the UN does.

There was the International Conference on Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion in Tokyo earlier this year.  I didn't see any reason to attend.  Not sure what happened.  However, there will be another one from July 16-17 in Helsinki, Finland.  But even here I fear the worst, for the sponsoring organization, the World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology, has been called a predatory publisher, arranging conferences to artificially boost the academic credentials of specialists.

What a way to end a subject so dear to my heart and so important for the Blue Revolution, but that happens to be the state of the field today.  I went to the site of this cover to the left, and my friend from Malaysia, A Bakar Jaafar, apparently, remains active.  Someday, when global warming becomes serious enough and the price of oil skyrockets past $100/barrel, return to this site for some progress on OTEC...and the Blue Revolution.

The Blue Evolution currently gestates, awaiting the Blue Revolution.  Long ago I became convinced that the standard federal sources of funding and companies themselves would not be able to initiate something this magnificent.  The key was an imaginative billionaire and his friends seeking a monumental legacy.




Finally, here are five recent postings reporting on a few encouraging early steps, which will someday hopefully lead to an obvious pathway for the future of Planet Earth and Humanity:

THE BLUE REVOLUTION TAKES A TINY STEP FORWARD

BLUE REVOLUTION TAKES TWO MORE TINY STEPS FORWARD

PACIFIC OCEAN INTERNATIONAL EXPOSITION

THE ULTIMATE BLUE REVOLUTION

FINANCING THE ULTIMATE BLUE REVOLUTION

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Tropical Storm  Dorian will cause some damage in the Caribbean, but, for the first time, has been projected to attain Category 2 hurricane force, and now threaten Florida on Monday.

The latest landfall seems now to be along the coastline which was once home to the Florida Solar Energy Center, fortunately relocated to a safer inland area in Cocoa.

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