WHAT A HELL OF A HALF YEAR

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

           DAY USA   WORLD   Brazil   India   South Africa

June      1      638    3189           480      223         40

              2      730    3053           732      200         22
              3    1134    4669         1232      221         50
             4     1083    4928         1269      259         37
             5     1031    5511         1492      275         56
             6       975    4906         1008      286         60
             7       706    4253           910      297         44
             8       586    3157           813      266         82
             9     1093    4732         1185      246         82
           10       982    5163         1300      388         48
           11       904    4951         1261      394         74
           12       791    4603           843      389         70
           13       702    4229           890      309         69
           14       331    3263           598      321         57
           15       425    3415           729      395         88
           16       849    6592         1338        ?           57
           17       809    5264         1209      341         49
           18       747    5123         1204      342         63
           19       719    5066         1221      366         94
           20       573    4428           968      307         46
           21       267    3338           601      426         53
           22       363    3880           748      312         61
           23       863    5465         1364      468        111
           24       808    6071         1103      424        103
           25       649    5179         1180      401          87
           26       663    4893         1055      381         48
           27       512    4547           994      414         73
           28       285    3463           555      384         43
           29       346    3415           727      417         73

Summary:

• Go to the Worldometer link for this information, but the USA suffered from its highest new cases over 24 hours ever yesterday, with 44,734.  
• Before a Senate committee Dr. Anthony Fauci indicated that the current trend could lead to 100,000 new cases/day.  
• Canada has had a total of 106,000 cases since the outbreak began.  
• For the record, 88,000 health workers in the U.S. have been infected with COVID-19.  
• Assisted living facilities deaths went past 50,000 and represents 43% of the 128,783 deaths in the U.S.
• The New York Times provided the following:

• Some latest developments
• Cirque du Soleil filed for bankruptcy.
• Broadway will not open until next year.
• The COVID-19 drug remdesivir to reduce recovery time will cost $3,120/patient.
• Palm Beach County residents will receive in the mail a package of two cloth and two disposable masks, courtesy of federal funds.  Not in the state, but the county will require wearing a mask outdoors and indoors where the general public is allowed.
• Bloomberg reports that another pathogen with pandemic potential is spreading from pigs in China.  Also, the Trump rally at Mount Rushmore on July 4 will not require face masks, and Europe will continue a ban of travel to the U.S., but open up incoming China visitors tomorrow.

This has been a hellacious half year for almost everyone.  Understandably, people are suffering, and while I am sympathetic, frankly, I've had a pretty good six months:

• Celebrated making it into the Year 2020 with wagyu and ozoni.  This was my most cherished wish.  Not the food, but being alive...and in a state of euphoria, too.

• Played it safe on January 2 by predicting that the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be held this year, as will the the Dubai Expo.  Both were cancelled.  I also said Donald Trump will be defeated on November 3.  I hope I won't be wrong again.
• Began an adventure to Thailand, even though by February 12 that country was #2 with this new coronavirus next to China.  By then, it already had a name:  COVID-19.  Today, Thailand is #96 with 0.8 deaths/million population, where the World is at 65.6 and USA 390.  Hawaii's rate is 12, the lowest in the country.  I was safer going to Thailand than staying home.

• Against my better judgement, but because I was traveling with someone who had this on her bucket list, I mingled with tigers.  Don't I look perfectly calm?  That was not the reality
• It was a relief to return home healthy, in consideration of viruses and tigers.

• On March 5 when the USA only had 11 COVID-19 deaths, I provided the latest summary, which hasn't materially changed in four months.  Dodging an earlier bullet, in that posting I mentioned just being on the Diamond Princes in December, and that on March 5 the ship was docked in Yokohama with 696 confirmed cases, where 410 were asymptomatic.  Note that the asymptomatic rate for those on that ship was 59%.  Eventually, 14 died.  Thus, the mortality rate ended up at 0.4%.  If you divide the deaths in the Worldometer data by the total number of cases, for both the world and U.S., you get 5%.  However, the CDC this past week reported that there are, actually, 10 times more cases than was officially observed.  Dividing 10 into 5% gives 0.5%, just about the mortality rate on the Diamond Princess.  As this ship is the best example we have of a controlled environment, I would expect that someday, when all the studies are in, the mortality rate for the World will be 0.4% and the percentage of asymptomatic infects to be around 60%.

• On April 16 I tried to explain that a face mask was not sufficient.  In addition to everything else, something to protect your eyes should also be part of the safety protocol.  Mostly only hospital frontline workers did this.  Now, I more and more see other options appearing.  Here is one to the right.

Testing was my focus on April 27.  Turned out President Trump was against testing because that would have shown too many cases to slow down opening up the economy.  He felt that an improved economy was the best way for his re-election, and now does not even wear a mask.

• Then came May 25 and the death of George Floyd, which has materially shifted attitudes about racial equality.  I suggested a simple solution to racial riots.  Donald Trump?  He inflamed the country.

• On June 5 I posted on my year of euphoria.  COVID-19?  Racial protests?  Donald Trump?  All crucial to the future of the U.S. and World.  But I have only a few years left, so continued enjoying life, and at least I'm happy.
• Donald Trump did what he could to tick off the cornavirus with his public rallies, and further unraveled in assorted ways, jiggled along by John Bolton and his book.

• The only hope Donald Trump has to win re-election is to succeed in just about the only thing he is doing mostly right about COVID-19, which is to put on a full court press to find a vaccine.  However, my posting of yesterday showed that a PROVEN vaccine would not be possible in time for him to gain any advantage.  Trump could do better by working with WHO and rest of the world in a combined effort to develop this vaccine.

If you think I did not do much so far this year, you're right, but:

What happened 70 years ago, 1950?

• The crime of the century, the Great Brink's Robbery in Boston, a theft of $2.8 million, worth $30 million today.  All eleven were eventually arrested.

• President Harry Truman says build a Hydrogen Bomb.
• Chiang Kai-shek moves his government to Taipei, Taiwan.
• University of California researchers announce the creation of element 98, and they called it Californium.
• L. Ron Hubbard publishes Dianetics.
• Korean War begins.  North Korean troops capture Seoul and kill around 800 medical staff and patients at Seoul National University Hospital.
• The Defense Production Act is enacted into law.  Yes, this is the one that seems to mystify Donald Trump.

• First Peanuts comic strip by Charles M. Schulz.

• 14th Dalai Lama is enthroned.  He remains active today, and will turn 85 on July 6.
• General Douglas MacArthur threatens to use nuclear weapons in Korea.

• First 12 Hours of Sebring race.  You would think this is some fancy place in Europe, right?  Nope, it's a dumpy town in Florida.  I know, I golfed there.
• President Harry Truman sends U.S. military advisers to Vietnam to aid the French.

Top songs of 1950 in 10 minutes.  The #1 tune that year was Goodnight Irene, by the Weavers.

-

WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF A PROVEN COVID-19 VACCINE TO INOCULATE THE NATION BY THE END OF THIS YEAR?

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

           DAY USA   WORLD   Brazil   India   South Africa

June      1      638    3189           480      223         40

              2      730    3053           732      200         22
              3    1134    4669         1232      221         50
             4     1083    4928         1269      259         37
             5     1031    5511         1492      275         56
             6       975    4906         1008      286         60
             7       706    4253           910      297         44
             8       586    3157           813      266         82
             9     1093    4732         1185      246         82
           10       982    5163         1300      388         48
           11       904    4951         1261      394         74
           12       791    4603           843      389         70
           13       702    4229           890      309         69
           14       331    3263           598      321         57
           15       425    3415           729      395         88
           16       849    6592         1338        ?           57
           17       809    5264         1209      341         49
           18       747    5123         1204      342         63
           19       719    5066         1221      366         94
           20       573    4428           968      307         46
           21       267    3338           601      426         53
           22       363    3880           748      312         61
           23       863    5465         1364      468        111
           24       808    6071         1103      424        103
           25       649    5179         1180      401          87
           26       663    4893         1055      381         48
           27       512    4547           994      414         73
           28       285    3463           555      384         43

Summary:

• A good day for Humanity.  However, the USA did show 40,540 new cases yesterday.  Will the new deaths figure in two weeks be 2000 or 200?  I suspect it will be closer to 2000.  Come back then to see how accurate I was.
• Lauran Neergard of the AP had a nice article today on 15 COVID-19 vaccines.  Here is a summary:
• The U.S. will press forth with two 30,000 sets of human guinea pigs (meaning that they need 60,000 volunteers, who will be paid):
• Oxford's method, which genetically engineers a chimpanzee cold virus to trick the human body
• Moderna's version which is to inject a piece of the coronavirus genetic code to produce "harmless" proteins to teach the immune system
• China's Sinovac Biotech/SinoPharm is pushing an inactivated coronavirus, similar to what is used today for the seasonal flu and polio.

So about that question above?  The development of a proven COVID-19 vaccine to mass inoculate the nation by the end of the year is very close to zero.  I'd be truly disappointed if Dr. Anthony Fauci is speculating on this possibility to help President Donald Trump get re-elected.

Here is a short video featuring Dr. Zubin Damania, a physician who is also a comedian.  But this clip is all too real:

The key to this question is proven.  Immunologists are particularly chary about being too optimistic about any new vaccine for one simple reason.  The unknown longer-term effects.  Sure, third-stage trials can show the effectiveness of a vaccine.  50% is okay, 75% is desired and 90+% dreamland.  However, vaccines change the body chemistry in mysterious ways.  It is possible that the initial immunity one gets can lead to a deadly reaction the second time.  Thus, they really don't how how truly safe a vaccine is until several years thereafter.

In April 2016, the Philippines made headlines around the world when its Department of Health vaccinated 830,000 elementary schoolchildren with the world’s first vaccine against dengue, a potentially life-threatening tropical mosquito-borne disease that infects nearly 400 million people per year, with 500,000 severe cases worldwide.

Here was the story:

• To start, 2016 was an election year, so the vaccination program may have been rushed to be used as prop in political campaigns. The vaccination program was launched shortly after the vaccine’s approval — unusual because such programs typically occur after several years of use in private practice as well as post-marketing studies that collect safety data. 

• Sanofi, the vaccine manufacturer, announced on November 29, 2017, that new data showed a loss of efficacy in seronegative patients over time and there was a small but increased risk of severe dengue in these patients, and it would be updating the product labeling to reflect this.

• On December 5, 2017, with calls for investigation and public outrage mounting, the Philippine FDA suspended Dengvaxia from the market, pending the outcome of investigations.

First, dengue is not a coronavirus.  Next, the second infection of dengue fever is usually far more severe than the original ailment.  You can read the details, but this reaction is related to antibodies, which the vaccine introduces.  It turns out that for this Philippine recall, that was probably done prematurely, as four years into the "scandal," the current analysis is that nothing terrible really happened.  But the medical field has to be watchful for a few more years to come up to a better final final analysis.

Of all the coincidencies, I was on the Hawaii Biotech board when our scientists decided to beat the world to the first dengue vaccine.  We got close, but then later decided to focus on astaxanthin, something I'm taking today for inflammation of my knees.  Frankly, this pill is too expensive, as it is not covered by my medical insurance, and will quit when I run out, soon.  While I have off the board for two decades, I still get asked to sign documents a couple of time/year, even though I'm pretty sure that my millions of stock options shares are essentially worthless after all the financial maneuverings.

The whole point of the above is that when is safe really safe?  If it turns out that if one-half of one percent of those who take this possible future COVID-19 vaccine DIES, or succumbs within a year or two, or overreacts to this virus when it infects you later, it is not worth taking that shot.  The medical profession won't know this figure for years to come.  Certainly not by January 1, 2021.

So to get into the analysis, if you ever catch this coronavirus ailment, your mortality rate will only be around 0.5% or less.  

• Then, what are the odds you even being infected?  Today, there are 10.3 million COVID-19 cases worldwide.  Say that number eventually doubles to 20.6 million.  
• The percentage odds of you being one of them is 20.6 million divided the world population, which is 7.8 billion, times 100...or 0.26%.  
• Then, if only 0.5% of those who become a case dies, your chances of being killed by this coronavirus is .0013%.  
• How low is this possibility?  Say you perversely bet a dollar that you will die from this disease, and you do pass away as a confirmed COVID-19 case.  You would win $769,230 for your friends and family.

Well, recent reports from the CDC indicates that the number of COVID-19 cases is ten times higher, or that 20.6 million will be 206 million actual cases when the virus goes away.  Even then, your chances of being killed by COVID-19 would be 0.013%.  Or you would only "win" $76,923 for your dollar bet.

Should the elderly rush to take the new COVID-19 vaccine when it arrives, for 13.4% of patients 80 and older die if so infected?  But let me go through another calculation:

• 1.6% of people 80 and over in this world = 125 million
• 1.6% of COVID-19 cases, or 206 million x 0.016 = 3.3 million
• 3.3 million x .134 = 0.442 million 80+ elders die of COVID-19
• 0.442 divided by 125 million x 100 = 0.35%

To summarize, if the chances of dying from taking a future COVID-19 vaccine is 0.5%, and your chances of dying by not taking the shot is 0.35%...EVEN THOSE 80 AND OLDER SHOULD NOT TAKE THIS COVID-19 VACCINE!!!

Of course, this 0.5% death rate for taking a future COVID-19 vaccine is totally made up.  I can't seem to find good data indicating how many die from taking the seasonal flu shot.  I suspect it is much lower than 0.5%.  For those 80 and older it doesn't matter because they will die pretty soon anyway.  I can say this because I will be 80 in September.  And I hate injections.

The World in 1951:

• Patti Page's Tennessee Waltz is #1 on January 1.
• Chicago surgeons remove a 300 pound ovarian cyst from a 58-year old Gertrude Levandowski, in a 96-hour operation.  That photo on the right is only a 20 pound cyst from two years ago.  I just can't show the 300-pounder.

• 22nd Amendment is ratified, limiting Presidents to two terms.  
• First NBA game.

• The first rock and roll song, Rocket 88, by Jackie Brenston and his Delta Cats.  The confusion and historical mistake was that he was the saxophonist and lead vocal only.  The group that actually should have been credited was Ike Turner (you know, husband of Tina) and his Kings of Rhythm.  Turner got $20 for this hit, as did Brenston.  Bill Haley and his Saddlemen (a country western group) recorded this same song later in the year.  In 1954 Bill Haley and his Comets recorded Rock Around the Clock, credited by some as the first rock and roll song.  Hey, how many of you knew this?

• Rogers and Hammerstein's The King and I opens on Broadway.  It was written specifically for Gertrude Lawrence, who played Anna.  Unfortunately, halfway through the 3-year run she dies of cancer.  The show made Yul Brynner a star.

• Remington Rand delivers the first UNIVAC to the U.S. Census Bureau.
• President Harry Truman fires General Douglas MacArthur from running the Korea War.  I still remember my 5th grade teacher, Mrs. Wedemeyer at Pohukaina Elementary School, being so upset by this. 

• William Shockley, John Bardeen and Walter Brattain announce invention of the transistor.
• Disney's Alice in Wonderland premieres in London.

• Blue Sun sets over Europe (caused by Canadian forest fires from 4 months previously).
• Bobby Thompson of the New York Giants hits a game-winning home run in the bottom of the 9th inning off of Brooklyn Dodger pitcher Ralph Branca, to win the National League pennant after being down by 14 games.

• CBS Eye logo premieres on TV.
• State of war between the U.S. and Germany is officially ended, six years after the termination of World War II.
• Winston Churchill re-elected Prime Minister of the UK a month before his 77th birthday.
• Direct coast-to-coast telephone service begins in the U.S.
• Gigi opens on Broadway with Audrey Hepburn.  Seven years later Leslie Caron gets the part in the film.

• First nuclear reactor produces electricity...in Idaho.  I wonder why there?  I guess they were afraid the whole thing would blow up.  I'll need to check into this.

• John Huston's The African Queen, with Humphrey and Katharine Hepburn.
• Marshall Plan ends, after distributing $13.3 billion in aid to rebuild Europe.  This is the equivalent of $131 billion today.
• The U.S. becomes malaria free.

The top songs of 1951 in 10 minutes.  Nat King Cole's Too Young was #1 that year.  I'll close with another one of those dance sequences, this one depicting dances of the 50's and 40's:

-

THE VERY BEST OF NETFLIX

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

           DAY USA   WORLD   Brazil   India   South Africa

June      1      638    3189           480      223         40

              2      730    3053           732      200         22
              3    1134    4669         1232      221         50
             4     1083    4928         1269      259         37
             5     1031    5511         1492      275         56
             6       975    4906         1008      286         60
             7       706    4253           910      297         44
             8       586    3157           813      266         82
             9     1093    4732         1185      246         82
           10       982    5163         1300      388         48
           11       904    4951         1261      394         74
           12       791    4603           843      389         70
           13       702    4229           890      309         69
           14       331    3263           598      321         57
           15       425    3415           729      395         88
           16       849    6592         1338        ?           57
           17       809    5264         1209      341         49
           18       747    5123         1204      342         63
           19       719    5066         1221      366         94
           20       573    4428           968      307         46
           21       267    3338           601      426         53
           22       363    3880           748      312         61
           23       863    5465         1364      468        111
           24       808    6071         1103      424        103
           25       649    5179         1180      401          87
           26       663    4893         1055      381         48
           27       512    4547           994      414         73

Summary:

• The leading countries for new cases yesterday were:
• #1 USA             43,581
• #2 Brazil           35,887
• #3 India             20,131
• #4 South Africa  7,210
• #5 Mexico          5,441
• New deaths:
• #1 Brazil               994
• #2 Mexico             719
• #3 USA                 512
• #4 India                 414
• #5 Chile                279

My semi-regular scientific sermon will return next week.  I'll instead continue my Netflix series.  The company was founded in 1997 with headquarters in Los Gatos, California.  They now have 182 million paid subscriptions worldwide, 69 million in the U.S.  None in China.  If you had invested $1000 in 2002, the value would today be close to $350,000.

Netflix started as a DVD sales and rental business, but largely abandoned that in 2007 to enter streaming.  Beginning in 2012 they became an active producer and distributor.  Their first series was House of Cards (RT:77%/76%) beginning in 2013, providing 73 episodes in 6 seasons.  Orange Is the New Black (RT:  90%/81%--although season 7 earned a 98% rating by reviewers) also started that year and went on for 91 episodes in 7 seasons.  Just in 2016 they released 126 original series.  Last year Netflix scored 15 Oscar nominations, equal to the total previously.  They have been able to avoid state and federal taxes.

Here is a list of original programs distributed by Netflix.  How many?  You try counting.

Rotten Tomatoes has reviewed them all, and those that scored 60% and higher made the list of best 156 Netflix shows.  I scrolled down the list and the first program I recognized was Designated Survivor (2016), at RT 71% and #135.  House of Cards was #121, Black Mirror RT 83% at #100 and Orange is the New Black RT 90% at #68.

I will only show the 100% Netflix offerings, ranked from #1 to #11 from that list of 156 best.  If you click on the title, you will link to the Rotten Tomatoes page for that entry.  [SOMETHING WENT WRONG WITH THE LAYOUT.  I'LL CLEAN THIS UP LATER...MAYBE.]

#1

MASTER OF NONE (2015) 
 100%

Synopsis: Comedy following the personal and professional challenges that face a 30-year-old New York actor, whose trials range from the immigrant...

[More]

Starring: Aziz Ansari, Cady Huffman, Ravi Patel, Claire Danes

#2

BIG MOUTH (2017) 
 100%

Synopsis: The adventures of two teenage boys are spotlighted.... [More]

Starring: John Mulaney, Nick Kroll, Maya Rudolph, Jason Mantzoukas

#3

MYSTERY SCIENCE THEATER 3000: THE RETURN (2017) 
 100%

Synopsis: In this reboot of the cult classic, a human and two robots poke fun at cheesy sci-fi movies.... [More]

Starring: Jonah Ray, Joel Hodgson, Hampton Yount, Baron Vaughn

#4

FEEL GOOD (0) 
 100%

Synopsis: A comedian living in London navigates sobriety and a new relationship with her girlfriend.... [More]

Starring: Mae Martin, Charlotte Ritchie, Adrian Lukis, Sophie Thompson

#5

UGLY DELICIOUS (2018) 
 100%

Synopsis: From James Beard Award-Winning Chef David Chang and Academy Award-Winning Director Morgan Neville comes Ugly Delicious, challenging both our taste... [More]

Starring: David Chang, Nick Kroll, Aziz Ansari, Padma Lakshmi

Let me further elaborate because yesterday I indicated that I had two more meals and would add them later.  After the second meal I found Ugly Delicious, which was fascinating, and unlike Midnight Diner and Samurai Gourmet, is a real food series.  Momofuku founder David Chang created, produced and stars in now a second series.  His parents emigrated from Korea (father, North, and mother, South).  He has a bunch of Momofuku, Fuku and Milk Bar eateries, mostly in New York, but around the world, and won numerous cuisine awards.  About my two meals, first loco moco, with ahi and abalone sashimi:

The second, chicken katsu (cutlet) with hirame (flounder) sashimi:

#6

GIRI/HAJI (2019) 
 100%

Synopsis: A Tokyo detective heads to London to find his missing brother, who's been linked to the Yakuza and accused of... [More]

Starring: Charlie Creed-Miles, Takehiro Hira, Togo Igawa, Andrew Joshi

I reviewed this series on May 19.

#7

DIRTY MONEY (2018) 
 100%

Synopsis: Dirty Money is a thrilling investigative series from Oscar Award-winning director Alex Gibney, which provides an up-close and personal view...[More]

I reviewed this series on June 18.

#8

CONFESSION KILLER (2019) 
 100%

Synopsis: How the most prolific serial killer in America got caught in a defective legal system.... [More]

#9

 100% MIDDLEDITCH & SCHWARTZ (2020) 

 100%

Synopsis: Thomiddleditch_and_schwartzmas Middleditch and Ben Schwartz bring their two-person comedy show, Middleditch & Schwartz, to a global audience in a collection...[More]

Starring:

#10

CRAZYHEAD (2016) 
 100%

Synopsis: Black comedy about an unlikely duo of demon hunters.... [More]

Starring: Cara Theobold, Susan Wokoma, Riann Steele, Lewis Reeves

#11

LENOX HILL (2020) 
 100%

Synopsis: From birth to brain surgery: This docuseries provides an intimate look at the lifesaving work of four doctors at Lenox... [More]

Starring: John Boockvar, David Langer, Mirtha Macri, Amanda Little Richardson

I'm into the year 1952:

• Winter Olympics in Oslo, Norway.
• Prime Minister Winston Churchill announces that the UK has an atomic bomb.
• Reunion gets 73 inches of rainfall in one day.  Interestingly enough, in 2018 Hawaii got 50 inches in one day, breaking the national record, but this article indicated that the world record was 72 inches in Reunion, but in 1966.

• U.S. Senate actually ratifies a peace treaty...with Japan.
• Werner von Braun publishes articles for crewed flights to Mars and the Moon.
• B-52 superfortress flies for the time.

• First Miss Universe, Armi Kuusela from Finland.
• Summer Olympics in Helsinki, Finland
• Argentine First Lady Eva Peron dies of cancer at the age of 33.
• Kitty Wells is the first woman to have a #1 hit, It wasn't God Who Made Honky Tonk Angels.
• First open-heart surgery at the University of Minnesota.

• Agatha Christie's The Moustrap opens in London, and is still running.
• The great smog of London.

• U.S. detonates the first H-Bomb at Eniwetok Atoll in the Marshall Islands, a yield of 10.4 megatons.

The hit songs of 1952 in 10 minutes.  #1 for the year was Leroy Anderson's Blue Tango.

It's Sunday, so here is why God made a dog:

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