THE LATEST FACTS ABOUT COVID-19

COVID-19 statistics:

• 3,198 have died from 93,090 cases in 77 countries.
• The death rate is 3.4%.

But the rate is surely lower, maybe much lower, for who really knows the exact number of cases, which has to be higher.  One example, in China, the mortality rate (same as death rate):

• Wuhan:  5.8%
• other areas of China:  0.7%

Age dependent:

• 80+:    14.8%
• 70-79:   8.0%
• 60-69:   3.6%
• 50-59:   1.3%
• 40-49:   0.4%
• 30-39:   0.2%
• 20-29:   0.2%
• 10-19:   0.2%

Sex:

• male:     2.8%
• female:  1.7%

Health / Pre-Existing Conditions:

• cardiovascular disease      10.5%
• diabetes                               7.3%
• respiratory disease              6.3%
• hypertension                       6.0%
• cancer                                  5.6%
• NO pre-existing condition   0.9%

The following graphs show that in mid-February there was a sign of peaking beginning to occur.  Today, it looks like peaking is in the future:

Typically, 1% of those who contract the seasonal flu are hospitalized, but the mortality rate from the flu is around 0.1%. So far 11 people have succumbed to COVID-19 in the USA.  During this period, 18,000 Americans have died from the flu.  World-wide there have been 3200 COVID-19 deaths, covering a two-month period, which can be compared to the 3700 who DAILY are killed in traffic accidents.

As much as public officials everywhere need to take steps to plan and prepare for the possibility of a local COVID-19 epidemic, I have not changed my attitude about the potential of my dying from COVID-19.  The odds are very low.  I never wore a mask once in my two-week trip to Thailand and back, through Japan.  One, it is uncomfortable.  Two, anyone who is ill and coughs no doubt was wearing a mask.  Hotel centralized air-conditioning and airline ventilation systems will not transmit this virus.  For those who wear masks, this virus can enter your eyes, which standard masks don't cover.  I did some serious hand-washing whenever possible, carrying a hand sanitizer solution (provided by 15 Craigside).  I used hand wipes (advertised to kill 99.99% of germs) to clean remote controls, phones, airline earphones and anything my hand would be contacting near my seat.  I tried not to touch my face, which was difficult.

Two items of personal note.  When I arrived in Thailand on February, it was #2 to China on number of COVID-19 cases.  During my two-week stay, no new cases.  Thailand is now #23, although since I left they added ten cases with one, and only, death.  No such thing as tiger flu.

I stepped on to the Diamond Princess on November 29 and disembarked on December 7.  On January 20 an 80-year old passenger boarded this ship.  He had COVID-19, leading to 696 cases and 6 deaths.

The Grand Princess is currently being held outside of San Francisco  because two passengers on a previous cruise tested positive, with one dying.  They had boarded on February 11 and returned to San Francisco on February 21.  The ship then cruised to Hawaii with 62 continuing passengers and crew.  Now, 21 of those (11 passengers and 10 crew) are showing symptoms, although they haven't yet been tested.

I wonder how many on that ship actually disembarked in Honolulu?  My recollection, though, is that any cruise line that leaves the West Coast of the USA cannot offer a one-way trip.  Has to do with the Jones Act.  You can, though, board in Vancouver or Mexico and get off in Hawaii.  But I'm not sure.

Not certain if this is good or bad for me, but current plans of my next, and final, around the world adventure, include a 46-day cruise on the GRAND PRINCESS from Los Angeles via Honolulu to Singapore.  If this ship becomes another Diamond Princess, then those plans need to be adjusted.  On the other hand, if the number of COVID-19 cases is minimal, then the cost of this October-December cruise could well drop to an all-time low.

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