A BLUE AMERICAN TSUNAMI

While it was not a big surprise for Democrats to flip both houses of Congress, what happened yesterday was still in many ways historic, and most importantly, will go a long way to preserve American Democracy.

First of all, I've never before in my life ever watched the results of any midterm election.  Yesterday I was glued to my TV set, from 11AM Hawaii time to 10PM (which was 3AM ET).  The attraction for me to watch so long was the building euphoria of a Blue American Tsunami.

From Newsweek:

While midterm elections typically favor the party out of power, the scale of this year’s result points to a broader rejection of the Republican administration.

Since 1946, the party controlling the White House has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterms, with an average loss of about 26 seats. 

On the other hand:

The milestone potentially sets up a new political dynamic in Washington. A President has not had to deal with a Congress completely controlled by the opposition party since the last two years of Barack Obama’s presidency. Congress now stands to be a true counterweight to the White House and its agenda. 

So looking ahead to a final conclusion to these 2026 midterm elections, realizing that a few seats could take a week or two or more to get final results, here is what the 120th Congress will look like when it convenes at noon on 3January2027. 

• The House will have Hakeem Jefferies as Speaker and most probably at least 245 seats (218 is sufficient be in the majority).  He thus will have a 52-vote majority.  You can wield a lot of power with this kind of freedom.
• I have seen at least one speculation that this total could reach 260 seats.  
• This means there should only be from 178 to 193 Republican House members.
• 
  The Senate final total will be delayed by Mississippi and Alaska.
• Mississippi.
• Democrat Scott Colom  462,857, a lead of 65 votes
• Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith 462,792.
• She is the incumbent, the first female senator from the state.
• Endorsed by Donald Trump.
• Independent Ty Pinkins 19,938.
• 96% of votes counted.  
• Around 20,000 left.
• Here and there in various counties.
• Provisional ballots cast by voters who didn't immediately meet voting requirements at the polls.  Individuals need to confirm identity at their circuit clerk's office by November 10.
• Mail-in ballots postmarked no later than November 3, and received by November 8.
• Certification will be completed by November 13.
• 
  Mississippi has the largest percentage of African Americans in the U.S. at 38%.
• There is no automatic recount provision in state law, but a challenger can seek a court order for recount.
• From what I've read and saw on television, my sense is that Democrat Colum will prevail.

• 
  More importantly, Forbes reports that Colom is getting 90% of the betting odds today.  Interestingly enough, both Kalshi and Polymarket gave Colom only a 14% chance of winning just before voting started yesterday.

• 
  Alaska.
• With 74% of the votes counted, Democrat Mary Peltola is leading Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan by only 626 votes.
• Polymarket and Kalshi still price Peltola as a heavy favorite at 87¢ and 88¢, because the ballots left to count are expected to lean her way.

• 
  Thus, the current 54 Democratic seats and 44 Republican seats in the 120th Congress, based on BETTING ODDS, should be:  56 Democrats and 44 Republicans, a 12-seat advantage for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
• 12 divided by 100 equals 12%.
• House?  If  the expected 52 seat advantage is accurate = 11.8%.

The 2026 midterm election was historic.

• Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Atlanta mayor, will become the first Black female governor in the country.
• Gina Hinojosa will become the first Texas Latina governor.
• Deb Haaland of New Mexico will become the first Native American governor.

• 
  Ohio, Minnesota and Tennessee will get their first female governors:  Amy Acton, Amy Klobuchar and Marsha Blackburn.
• Peggy Flanagan of Minnesota will become thirst Native American women in the U.S. Senate.

• Byron Donalds will become Florida's first Black governor.  Same for David Crowley in Wisconsin and Aaron Flood in Nevada.

• 
  Chris Pappas of New Hampshire will become the first out gay man to serve the U.S. Senate.
• Abdul El-Sayad will become the Senate's first Muslim member.
• Xavier Becerra will become California's first Latino governor.

One final piece of good news, spurred by the results of the midterm elections.  European Brent crude oil today fell below $100/barrel for the first time since October 7.   Someday soon, hopefully, gasoline prices will drop below $4/gallon.  Why?  Many voters cited the Iran War as the cause of American woes, the result being the Blue American Tsunami.  Even JD Vance thought so.  He might be the first important Republican to begin distancing himself from the President.

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TODAY IS THE DAY TO HELP PRESERVE DEMOCRACY IN THE USA

I yesterday said I would today post part 2 of train trips.  Well, I'll do that later this week.

Today is Midterm-Elections Day, and I feel compelled to lay out the foundation for what will be a very interesting day.

• 
  For one, voting has begun in the whole nation, so I'm cheered that Democracy has withstood the first challenge.  There is still that matter of accepting the results, but my sense is that this matter will soon be confirmed.  However, there is no doubt in my mind that the next 26 months will determine the future of the USA. 

• 
  In any case, I offer this posting as background to help you watch the unfolding drama today from your television set.
• CNN coverage started yesterday, and will re-start at 11AM ET today
• FOX News from 1PM ET.
• MS NOW also began yesterday, but goes full bore at 1PM, led by Rachel Maddow.  Then tomorrow, Morning Joe will host a special edition on their November 4 show.

Expectations are varied.  Ranges from a Blue Tsunami to Blue Wave to Purple Tide to what our President just said.

• From Time magazine this morning.

Less than 24 hours before Election Day, President Donald Trump railed against the Democratic Party and contended that if his supporters show up to the polls, Republicans “will win in a landslide.”

• 
  I might add that Trump is on the cover of the latest issue of Time I am now reading.  This was the 56th time he has commanded that position.  Famous, but maybe infamous is a more appropriate description, for he just passed President Richard Nixon, who appeared 55 times.  For the record:  President Ronald Reagan had 46 appearances and President Bill Clinton 40 times.

• 
  Democratic Senator and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is "nauseously optimistic" about retaking the Senate.
• But Reuters lists 6 reasons why Democrats may fall short of a midterm landslide.
• Only 40 to 50 House seats of the 435 are truly competitive.
• About the Senate. key flipping or breakthrough Democratic victories must occur in states Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024.
• Young, Black and Hispanic voters generally don't vote much in midterm elections.
• Republicans held a cash advantage of several hundred million dollars heading in the final weeks of this campaign.
• Previous polls have frequently underestimated Republican support.
• Socialism attacks could resonate.

• 
  There seems to be a kind of consensus that Democrats should flip the House, and have an advantage of around 20 seats when they meet in January.  The Senate remains iffy, but the best guess is that Democrats can successfully flip this body, and have anywhere from a one to three seat voting advantage.  Watch this video.
• Click on this Cook Political Report to assess the situation in the Senate.

• 
  There are 36 governors' races today.  They control local elections and are the first line of defense for Democracy.
• In Ohio, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy was going okay until they released that campaign ad featuring opponent Acton's mother.  Not only might Acton now win, but also influences an important Senate election.

• 
  Texas incumbent Governor Greg Abbot won by double digits in 2022.  This year will be a lot more competitive agains Democratic State Rep. Gina Hinojosa.
• Georgia has billionaire Republican Rick Jackson against Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms.  If she wins, she would become the first female Black governor in U.S. history.

• 
  CNN has a video on which midterm races will give us early clues on election night.

• 
  The Hill indicates:  Democrats have a 73% chance to control the Senate.
• Axios says:  Final polls, models and markets see a "blue tsunami."

• 
  Betting odds.  From Polymarket.  Surprising numbers!
• Which party will win the House?
• Democrats = 95%
• Republicans = 6%
• U.S. Senate
• Democrats flip both House and Senate = 76%
• Republicans retain control in Senate = 24%
• For Senate from Texas?
• James Talarico (D)  = 76%
• Ken Paxton (R) = 26%
• For Senate from Michigan (but what about the recent flap this weekend???)
• Abdul El-Sayed (D) = 76%
• Mike Rogers (R) = 24%
• Maine Senate.
• Troy Jackson (D) = 71%
• Susan Collins (R) = 30%
• Kansas Senate.
• Adam Hamilton (D) = 64%
• Roger Marshall (R) = 37%
• Ohio Senate
• Sherrod Brown (D) = 73%
• John Husted (R) = 28%
• Iowa Senate
• Josh Turek (D) = 52%
• Ashley Hinson (R) = 50%
• South Carolina Senate
• Darline Graham Nordone (R) = 70%
• Annie Andrews (D) = 31%
• Alaska Senate
• Mary Peltola (D) = 71%
• Dan Sullivan (R) = 31%
• Texas Governor.
• Gregg Abbot (R) = 61%
• Gina Hinojosa (D) = 40%
• Georgia Governor
• Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) = 74%
• Rick Jackson (R) = 28%

To close, the best midterm songs?

• Spotify lists 91 songs, with #1 being Willie Nelson's Vote 'Em Out and #91, This Land is Your Land by Peter, Paul and Mary.
• The League of Women Voters has This Land is Your Land as #1, but sung by Woody Guthrie.
• Numero has a roundup of 10 of the best political campaign music playlists.  All Democrats:  Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Biden/Harris, Bernie Sanders. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Jon Ossoff.

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WHAT ABOUT A TRAIN TRIP? Part One: How Safe?

Well, tomorrow, November 3, will be mid-term elections day. 

• The midterms, or next general election day, 7November2028, is not a Federal holiday.  Some states treat these days as holidays.  Seen in green to the right.

• 
  The development of the Morse electric telegraph forced the U.S. Congress to in 1845 mandate a uniform national date for choosing Presidential electors.  This technology made results known virtually immediately, and this could have influenced the vote in other states.
• The first Tuesday after the first Monday in November was selected to allow farmers to finish the harvest, while keeping away from snowstorms and the Christmas period.  

• 
  Most primary elections are held between March and September, also usually on Tuesdays.
• Pro sports leagues that play in November typically don't schedule games on Election Day.
• Early voting began in 2000.
• Well, it now looks like there will be a 2026 mid-term election day.  The concern shifts to post-election legal challenges.

Here are some speculations.

• Most polls seem to have Democrats taking control of the House.  But there remain some uncertainties in the Senate.
• Members of the Senate are elected every six years, and in cycles which means only 35 out of 100 seats are up for re-election this November. There are 15 Republican-leaning seats, while 13 are likely to go to the Democrats. Seven states could go either way.  The Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, and the Democrats 45. There are also two independents, Bernie Sanders and Angus King, who caucus with the Democrats.
• Here is what Steve Kornacki says.
• Longer CNN video.

Now, to my topic of today.  We all need to move about to enjoy a full life.  Today I'll compare the safety of various modes of travel.  There was that terrible crash in Spain on October 28.  Is it safe to go on train trips?

According to data compiled on Transport accident - Wikipedia, the risk of death per travel metric changes dramatically across modes: [1]

Mode of Travel	Deaths per Billion Journeys	Deaths per Billion Hours	Deaths per Billion km
Bus	4.3	11.1	0.4
Rail	20	30	0.6
Van	20	60	1.2
Car	40	130	3.1
Foot (Walking)	40	220	54.2
Water (Boat/Ship)	90	50	2.6
Air (Commercial)	117	30.8	0.05
Pedal Cycle (Bicycle)	170	550	44.6
Motorcycle	1,640	4,840	108.9

The above table clearly shows that trains are, actually, a relatively safe mode of travel.

• Clearly, you don't want to ride a motorcycle, for there are double the deaths per distance traveled compared to just walking.  Walking is great for exercise, but you need to be careful.  Traffic, tripping, mongrel dogs, muggings and so forth.  I walk in my apartment hallway over carpet with handrails on both walls to avoid those problems.

• 
  Bicycles are just a bit safer than walking.
• Cars are 17.5 times safer than walking.
• Air travel is more than a thousand times safer than walking.
• Of course, the distinction to make is that of distance.  
• You can't catch a plane to walk a mile for exercise.
• A bike is used to get to a place faster.
• You need to pay a lot more for a car than a bike, plus gasoline vs exercise, but most of us travel most by car anyway for various reasons.
• The death rate of car or ship travel is relatively close, but one moves in water and the other on land.  You will pay more for movement by ship than a drive on vacation, but there are other factors why people go on a cruise.

• 
  One advantage of taking a train is that it is more than 4 times safer than a cruise and around 5 times safer than driving.
• Commercial air travel is by far the safest.
• 62 times safer than driving.
• 52 times safer than a ship.
• 12 times safer than a train.
• Commercial airline deaths/year:
• From 2000 to 2009:  680.
• From 2010 to 2019:  304.
• From 2020 to 2025:  137.
• Hmmm...getting better and better.

• 
  From Google AI:

The chance of dying in a commercial airline crash is extraordinarily low, with general estimates placing the odds at roughly 1 in 11 million per flight or up to 1 in 37 million depending on recent global tracking data. [1, 2]

About that recent train crash in Spain.

• 69 people died, with over 100 injured.
• In January of this year, there was another Spanish accident claiming around 45 lives.

• 
  China has 12 times the high speed railway network compared to Spain.  Since 2000, "only" around 150 have died, including workers.
• Japan.

• 
  Since 2000, has had 115 train deaths, but 107 from the April 2005 Amagasaki incident.
• Amazingly enough, the Shinkansen (bullet train) has had ZERO on-board passenger deaths since it began operating in 1964!

So about travel by train.

• Yes, twelve times more deaths per distance traveled compared to flying.
• But trains are safer on a per-trip basis.
• And much more environmentally cleaner than planes.
• 
  I've been all over Japan on their bullet train, which is fast, safe, timely, and get this:  you can place quarter on its side, and this coin will not fall from Tokyo to Kyoto.  You can take a photo of what is outside, like Mount Fuji.  On a plane, some nice sunsets, but not much more.

• 
  Earlier this year we took a train trip from Toronto to Vancouver.  Lots of pluses and minuses.  Read about our experience.

• 
  Next month, we will take the SJourney from Hanoi to Saigon.  From Google AI:

What it is: Vietnam’s premier luxury rail offerings (like the 8-day, 7-night slow-travel SJourney Train or private luxury tour packages) transform the 1,072-mile North-South route into a five-star hotel on wheels. [1, 2, 3]

Cost: Roughly $7,300 to $10,000+ per person (or around $8,600+ standard pricing). [1, 2, 3]
Accommodations: 10m² private twin or double cabins featuring high-end 5-star bedding, floor-to-ceiling panoramic windows, wardrobes, mini-bars, safety boxes, and en-suite private bathrooms with actual showers. [1, 2, 3]

Dining & Amenities: Fine-dining restaurant cars serving multi-course Vietnamese and Western meals, unlimited wine/beer, afternoon tea, daily housekeeping, concierge services, and off-train guided cultural excursions. [1, 2]
Vibe: Slow travel (operating at around 40 km/h) designed to mimic a luxury cruise or boutique resort. Opinions on social media and travel groups note that while the comfort rivals luxury hotels, some feel it trades away the gritty, real-life authenticity of local transit for a curated bubble. [1, 2]

• 
  Mind you, this train travels at around 30 MPH, versus the Shinkansen up to 200 MPH.  
• We will be on this train for a week.
• However, Vietnam will next year begin building a 220 MPH rail system, bringing this trip down to 6 hours.

Tomorrow, the best trips in the world.

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