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Thursday, June 30, 2022

THE PERFECT POLITICAL STORM: Part 1 - Decisions of the Supreme Court

      From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
Jan     14       4142    15512        1151       189      712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839        279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1          439      4056         290          52        12
May    5          225      2404         151            ?        64 
June    2         216      1413         130          10        31 
           9          195      1526         148          24        24 
         15          305      1382         289          11        26
         22          390      1577         176          38        57
         29          326      1608         294          39        19

Summary:  This pandemic is just not going away.
  • The USA was back into six-digits for new cases yesterday:  100,257.
  • But we are #3 to Germany with 132,671 and France at 124,724.
  • Note that on a new cases/million population basis:
    • Germany  1574
    • France  1902
    • USA  299
    • Italy  1576
    • Greece  1565
    • Australia 1489
    • New Zealand 1612
    • Taiwan  1758
    • Singapore 1592
    • South Korea  206
    • Japan  137
    • Hawaii  489
  • In the Americas, we seem reasonably okay (compared to last week):
    • USA  +5%
    • Canada +35%
    • Mexico  +65%
    • Honduras  +186%
  • Europe is still in bad shape, having increased in cases by 43% during the past week.
  • Asia actually dropped 6% during the past week.
    • Singapore  +62%
    • Hong Kong +44%
    • Japan  +11%
    • Thailand  +8%
    • South Korea  +3%
    • Taiwan  -21%
    • Planning on a trip to the Orient?  
      • So far, only tour groups can visit Japan.  Japan Times reports that there is anticipation of opening up soon, and there might even be a "revenge tourist" mentality once this occurs.
      • For South Korea, you need to be up to date with vaccination.  Not much said about boosters.
      • Travel to Hong Kong and China not advised today.
      • Thailand remains generally open if vaccinated, but visas are required from some countries.
      • Singapore is open, but remains iffy on actual entering policy,
      • Australia allowed tourist travel from February, and the country is still generally open, except for several local restrictions.
      • New Zealand does not allow tourists today.
Well, the Supreme Court announced two more judgements, plus welcomed Ketanji Jackson as their newest associate justice today, then shut down until October 3.
  • Voted 6-3 on West Virgina et al v. the EPA to limit the EPA authority to set climate standards for power plants.  This will significant rile up environmentalists and much of the white urban community.
  • How many of you knew that the Administrator of the EPA is Michael Regan, like Ketanji Jackson, the first Black person to serve in those roles?
  • They voted 5-4 (Kavanaugh and Roberts voted with the liberals) to allow President Biden more flexibility in dealing with immigrants from the south.  
For those who missed The Perfect Storm, the 1997 book by Sebastian Junger about the shipwreck of the Andrea Gail in 1991, leading to the 2000 film starring George Clooney and Mark Wahlberg, on 30 October 1991 there was a conjunction of:
  • Hurricane Grace.
  • A massive low pressure system.
  • Causing up to 100 foot waves.
  • Sinking the 70-foot Andrea Gail.
I thought it was an eventful film, but Rotten Tomatoes only gave it 47/63 ratings.

The point about a Perfect Political Storm is that in just one week, the combination of Supreme Court rulings and the focus of the House January 6 Committee hearing flipped the usual scenario of the party out of power clouting the ruling party in the midterm election.  So instead of Republicans re-gaining control over both houses of Congress, Democrats find themselves in a perfect political storm to not only retain control over Congress, but increase their numbers and significantly affect state elections in their favor.  In one fateful week, circumstances have shifted 10% to 20% of votes toward Democratic candidates.
  • Abortion and Women's Rights
    • Also a 14th amendment issue, but this one taking back a woman's right to abortion.
  • Immigration is also linked to the 14th amendment.
  • Green Rights
To the above, you can add the House January 6 Committee hearings, which loom to lead the Department of Justice to convicting former President Donald Trump for attempting a coup.  Of course, Democrats don't want to throw Trump in jail this year.  The judicial process could well extend into 2023, with the peak only occurring in the September-October period when voters get most influence by the reality of the Trump effect, which I will detail tomorrow.

What will happen on November 8 is simple:
  • First of all, you won't change the minds of most Trump advocates and die-hard Republicans.  They watch the Fox News Channel and will merrily march to the poll, almost expecting to win.
  • What the above will influence are:
    • 2% of Republicans and 5% of independents pissed off about that gun rights issue to switch their vote from a Republican to a Democrat.
    • 5% of Republicans and 10% of Independents really ticked off about Rowe v. Wade so that the Congress can pass some abortion legislation to return this form of women's rights.  Or maybe fiddle with the filibuster rule to add two more associate justices.
    • 10% of Hispanics who now feel better about immigration, which historically has been supported by Democrats.
    • 5% of Republicans and 10% of Independents concerned about global climate warming to more seriously think about voting for a Democrat over a Republican.
    • 5% of Republicans and 10% of Independents who are patriotic with high morals to vote against any Trump-supported candidate.  The Trump more fumes and insults, the more Democrats will get elected.  Just look at the Georgia run-off for the U.S. Senate.
  • Of course you can't add those numbers up, for some, if not many, happen to support some or all of those categories.  However, most elections are won by less than 10% of the votes cast.  All Democrats need is for 5-10% of Republicans/Independents to either not vote or vote for a Democrat over a Republican.
I'm showing the following today to help me lose weight.  I am served too many cucumbers every day where I live.  I'm getting tired of them.  But eating more can help control my weight.  So for me:


Tropical Cyclone Two still in the Caribbean will cross into the Pacific Ocean and could well become a hurricane:

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Wednesday, June 29, 2022

RENEWABLE ENERGY AND GLOBAL WARMING HIGHLIGHTS

First, about that 6th House January 6 Committee hearing yesterday, Cassidy Hutchinson's performance accelerated the doom of Donald Trump.  General conclusions on the morning after is that she broke the ice towards the formal indictment of the former president by the Department of Justice.  Congress is having trouble subpoenaing members and close aides of the White House.   The attorney general has stronger and more compelling powers to force testimony.  

One problem I see is that this campaign to secure victories for Democrats on November 8  is now moving too fast.  The Perfect Political Storm (upcoming posting) of abortion/gun rights, future of democracy and Trump effect needs to reach a peak in September into October to maximize victory.  The Department of Justice moves so slowly anyway, that perhaps it has been calculated into the final strategy.

I get a weekly newsletter from the American Energy Society, which is the U.S. affiliate of the International Solar Energy Society.  

  • They both have been around since 1954.  
  • Not directly associated with the American Solar Energy Society.
  • I've noticed that the organizations linked to an energy source (solar, oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear, etc.) tend to only feature their option, ignoring the others.
  • However, while the American Energy Society seems to mostly push the renewables, they also incorporate what is happening with fossil fuels and nuclear power.
  • The following is an organized hodge-podge representing from Energy Matters, essentially the best from issues of the past few weeks.
  • From what you get from the media, some of the bullets you will read are surprising, if not startling.  Your base of information about energy will be significantly jiggled.

Are global temperatures really increasing?  Yup, compared to the 1900-2000 baseline, from the American Energy Society:

Image
 
- The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere right now. For context, this is the highest recorded measurement in the last million years and the first time the total is more than 50% higher than the pre-industrial era.  (From Wikipedia, a more accurate statement is...from 14 million years ago.)

- 
Each passenger flying from San Francisco to London is responsible for about 1 metric ton of CO2 – about half the emissions that a citizen in India releases in a year. 

- Related, driving an electric vehicle costs around $1.41 per gallon-equivalent vs. $4.67/gallon for a gasoline-powered car with an ICE (US averages, as of June 1, 2022). 
  • Climate: The highest income households emit 5.6 times more greenhouse gas emissions per capita than the lowest income households.
- Relative to 1850, these are the gases contributing to global warming:

- A bit more than 90% of the Great Barrier Coral Reef is bleached and much of it is probably dead.

- In 2013 California established a goal of 100% clean energy by 2050.  How are they doing?

This surprised me:

- About 40% of all corn grown in the US is used for biofuels (mostly ethanol). Note: 36% of the US corn crop is used as animal feed, including distiller grains left over from ethanol production; much of the rest is exported. The smallest percentage is used for food, much of that for high-fructose corn syrup.

  • Bloomberg: The cost to reach net-zero — $9.2 trillion a year every year until 2050 — is  a bargain.
- Three-quarters of gas stove methane emissions occur when the stove is not being used.

- There are 8 parking spaces for every car in the US.

- The oceans absorb about 93% of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases.

Are American corporations actually using more renewable energy?  Yes:

The Biden White House and U.S. Congress for Fiscal Year 2023 will be increasing funding for renewable energy.  So far:


The Ukraine War has increased the price of petroleum about $30/barrel, spurring record earnings for Russia.  Last year 75% of their oil and gas exports went to Europe.  This year, half will be going to Asia, especially China and India.  Below, the increase in the price of petroleum:
Image
  • COVID pandemic and reduced demand
  • Supply-chain breakdown
  • Russia's invasion of Ukraine
  • OPEC and market manipulation
  • Primary cause: lack of investment (refineries, pipelines, IMEX hubs, E&P, etc.). Insert: oil above $120/barrel, in Brent crude USD.
- Fiscal break-even production price of oil/barrel, by nation:
  • Russia:  $79 / barrel (down from $87/b in 2017). 
  • Saudi Arabia:  $67 / barrel (down from $83 in 2017).
  • United States:  $47 / barrel (though some efficient producers break even at $37/b).
  • Venezuela:  $92 / barrel (not a typo).
  • Conclusion:  With oil prices above $100/barrel, Russia continues to finance its war.
A quote:

"We are at $120/barrel without China, so when China comes back, oil is going to go higher." 
- Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

Which countries are most causing global warming by using coal for electricity?
  1. China
  2. India
  3. Indonesia (which is the fastest growing).
Last year coal power generation rose by 9%,  to 10,943 TWh, the biggest percentage increase since 1985:


Some sordid history:

- Retrospective: In 1900, roughly 50,000 horses pulled carts, cabs, and buses around the streets of London and generated roughly 1,000 tons of dung per day. All this manure  attracted rats and flies, which spread disease. At the same time, coal-fired industry contributed a nearly permanent level of 600 PM air polution (significantly worse than Beijing or Delhi today). In other words, in London during the early industrial era, the coal-powered manufacturing sector and the pre-fossil fuel transportation system were literally making citizens very sick.
Image
- The Gates of Hell (or, the Darvaza gas crater) in Turkmenistan formed in 1971, when a Soviet drilling expedition lit a hole on fire to try to curb a gas leak. They believed that the flames would subside after a few weeks; however, the Gates of Hell continues to burn 50 years later. Meanwhile, the Centralia coal-seam mine fire has been burning underneath the borough of Centralia, Pennsylvania, US, since at least May 27, 1962, and will continue to burn for another 250 years; and, in eastern India's Jharia coal fields, there have been coal fires burning consistently since 1916. Finally, Mount Wingen in Australia has been burning for approximately 6,000 years and is the oldest known coal fire.

The cost of electricity in the U.S. will  double from last summer:


- Electric power generated from renewable sources surpassed nuclear generation in the US during 2021 (795 million megawatthours vs. 778 million MWh, respectively). 

- Pundits offer many proposed pathways to a zero-emission electricity grid. Insert: a comparison of the current electricity grid (left), the IEA's version of a clean power grid (middle), and the 100% renewables' plan by Mark Jacobson, professor of Civil & Environmental Engineering at Stanford University (right).
- About 70% of transmission and distribution lines are well into the second half of their 50-year life expectancy, and some are more than 100 years old. 

- The average US home uses about 11,000 kilowatt hours of electricity per year. To put this in perspective, a typical clothes dryer uses 3 kWh/load, which is about the total amount of kWh used each day on average by a person in sub-Saharan Africa (pop. 600 million).

- The current state of nuclear generated power in the US:
  • In 2021, for the second consecutive year, US nuclear electricity generation declined. 
  • Output from US nuclear power plants totaled 778 million megawatthours, or 1.5% less than the previous year. 
  • Nuclear’s share of electricity generation was similar to its average share in the previous decade:19%.
  • Subtractions: three nuclear reactors with a combined 3,009 MW of capacity are scheduled to retire in the coming years (Michigan’s Palisades is scheduled to retire later this year, and California’s Diablo Canyon is slated to retire one generating unit in 2024 and one in 2025).
  • Additions: Georgia's Vogtle Unit 3 is scheduled to come online this year (1,114 MW).
Image
​SMR refers to a class of smaller modular nuclear reactors that produce less than 300 MWe—compared to larger nuclear power plants that can produce more than 1,600 MWe. Though small in size, SMRs offer a number of benefits, but none so valuable as this: flexibility. Perhaps that is also its greatest challenge?

- About 88% of all US households use air conditioning. Two-thirds of those use central AC or a central heat pump as their main AC equipment.

- China, the world’s biggest lithium battery manufacturer, has about 72% market share (note: it was about 60% in 2018). For comparison, US manufacturers have about 8.5% market share.  China has by far the largest lithium resource, with Australia second.

- There is one gasoline pump for every 185 vehicles in the US.

- There is 1 EV fast-charging port for every 92 EVs.

Battery pack prices in $/kWh are falling:

Not sure how lithium battery price declined by 97% over the past three decades, even though the price of lithium is now exponentially rising ($/metric ton):

Lithium is a problem, but:

- In 2015, there were three battery manufacturing gigafactories. In 2017, Tesla's gigafactory opened; today, there are 285 gigafactories globally (some under construction). However, there has been very little increase in the mining of rare earth raw materials for the manufacture of batteries at these gigafactories. 


Consequently, the price for rare earth metals have gone up significantly, and many see that trend continuing. However, COVID prevention lockdowns in China are causing the largest consumer of rare earth metals to slow down — for instance, copper prices are falling. Below: price changes for rare earths in the last five years:

  • Lithium +700% 
  • Nickel +250%
  • Cobalt +100%
  • Manganese +100%
  • Graphite +25%


Trying to keep up with academic interest in hydrogen?

- Universities in the Spotlight -
Hydrogen RD&D
 
- UCLA engineers have developed a solar thermal solution that turns methane into hydrogen.
 
- University of Wyoming has launched the Hydrogen Energy Research Center (H2ERC). 
 
- University of Louisiana at Lafayette, University of Oklahoma, University of Arkansas, and Louisiana State University, have established a collaborative regional hub for RD&D of clean hydrogen as a fuel and manufacturing feedstock. 
 
- Solar Turbines donated a 3.5-megawatt turbine engine to Colorado State University to support hydrogen combustion research at the CSU Energy Institute.
 
- Penn State has developed a method to purify hydrogen from heavy carbon monoxide.
 

- Stanford University launched a research initiative on hydrogen. 
 
- The National Fuel Cell Research Center at UC-Irvine set a record for hydrogen dispensed at the UC Irvine Hydrogen Fueling Station.
 
- University of British Columbia is launching a research program on hydrogen fuel for transportation, with special emphasis on the hydrogen supply chain.
 
- University of Alberta is developing a Hydrogen Roadmap for its province.

Also:


- Stanford received a $1.1 billion gift from John and Ann Doerr to launch the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, the first new school at the university in 70 years.

- Stanford University now produces more renewable energy than it uses; the extra energy goes onto the California electric grid.
 
- The Berkeley Energy and Resources Collaborative (BERC) will host its annual Energy Summit on Monday, April 11th at UC Berkeley’s Pauley Ballroom. This is the largest student-led energy conference in the country. 

- University of Hawaii researchers in the Chemistry Department are testing the "excitation" of water droplets to see if they can extract power that can be converted into electricity.

Evolution of wind turbine size and output:


Image
- On this date in history, March 29, 2022, wind was the second-largest source of US electricity generation (natural gas 31%; wind 19.1%; nuclear 19%; coal 17%; all other sources 14%).

- The Carbon Removal XPrize, by the numbers:

  • 287: total number of teams that participated in the Carbon XPrize this year. 
  • 1,133: total number of teams that have qualified to compete for the 2025 grand prize. 
  • $50M:  the grand prize for the winner in 2025; runner-ups will receive $30M.  
  • Note: There is still time to apply for the 2025 grand prize competition. 
  • Insert: a map of all 1,133 qualifying teams and the 60 semi-finalists.

The top-5 solar power producing cities in the US:

  1. Honolulu
  2. Las Vegas
  3. San Diego
  4. Albuquerque
  5. San Jose
Where are major solar and wind energy farms developing?  Illinois has the most new solar projects in the pipeline:


Texas has the most wind projects:

I've noticed that various sustainable energy hopes go through a hype cycle.  Here is a historic chart:

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