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Tuesday, March 31, 2020

COVID-19: Is There Rational Hope?

Worldometer:

The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 202 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship. The day is reset after midnight GMT+0.


On the change of deaths over the past 24 hours:

DAY  
   China   Italy   USA   Spain   Germany   S. Korea  WORLD

Mar 18        11  475       41      105             2     
        19         8  427       21      165            15 
        20         3  627       18      213            15
        21         7  793       32      285            15
        22         6  651       98      375              9               6
        23         9  601       85      435            24               7        1631
        24         7  743     100      489            33               9        1983
        25         4  683     129      454            47               6        1987
        26         6  712       73      498            33               5        1801
        27         5  919     182      569            71               8        2782
        28         3  889     241      674            52               5        2609
        29         5  756     169      624            49               8        2706
        30         4  812     271      537            19               6        2849
        31         5  837     439      553            37               4        3661

Summary:  Both the USA and World showed major leaps of new deaths.  Forget the concept of plateauing for now.  Stay home.

Analysis:
  • I worry most about India and the African continent.  But COVID-19, for some reason, has not struck those area, yet.  And maybe never will.  Don't know why, but this was also the case for the previous H1N1 pandemic of 2008-9.  Maybe this is why:  I just heard on CNN that India is building emergency jails to house those who break quarantine laws.
  • It's becoming obvious that swift quarantining is the necessary and decisive step for government to take.  Apparently, 90% of Americans now agree.  Just a week of indecision can make that crucial difference.  Easy to say this in hindsight, but President Donald Trump should have a month ago taken this Chinese decision for Wuhan, or maybe even way back when his administration stopped travel from China on January 31.  Can you believe that was two months ago?  Further, President Xi sent 43,000 healthcare workers into Hubei Province, plus commissioned 16 emergency coronavirus hospitals.  New York needs similar help now.  Hubei Province has a population of 58.5 million, while the state of New York has nearly 20 million, and Wuhan City 11 million.  Soon New Orleans, then Chicago and Detroit.
  • You might wonder why I tend to look for the silver lining and express hope, when almost everyone else is doom and gloom?  Well, that's me.  But there are others.  For example, Ross Douthat of The New York Times has an opinion piece entitled:  Rational panic is here, but there also is rational hope:
    • Today, at last, we have panic in surplus — however unevenly distributed and still-insufficient in some places. But now we need something else to leaven it: Along with rational panic, we need sources of rational hope.
    • Rational hope is not the same as reckless optimism. It doesn’t require, for instance, quickly lifting quarantines based on outlying projections of low fatality rates, as some return-to-normalcy conservatives have been urging in the last week. Rational hope accepts that the situation is genuinely dark, but then it still looks around for signposts leading up and out. It recognizes that things are likely to get worse, but keeps itself alert to the contexts in which they seem to be getting better — or at the very least, getting worse more slowly. It doesn’t expect miracles, but it rejects a grim helplessness, a spirit of inevitable doom.
    • ...there is hope in the fact that the impressive containment achieved so far in East Asia has been accomplished with a variety of different policies, different degrees of lockdown and distancing, but one major commonality: the widespread use of masks. Fearing shortages and panic, Western experts have downplayed the effectiveness of masking. But the circumstantial evidence of Western versus Asian epidemic curves and the direct evidence of multiple studies suggest that masking works, and that its widespread adoption can change an epidemic’s course.
    • The current shutdown bends infection curves relatively quickly, outside a few major urban outbreaks. That policy response combines with America’s social-distancing sprawl and car culture and younger-than-Europe age profile to compensate for our initial incompetence and natural insubordination.
Finally, from A.J. Kole of the Associated Press:  If you don't Laugh, you cry:  Coping with virus through humor:

  • BOSTON (AP) — Neil Diamond posts a fireside rendition of “Sweet Caroline” with its familiar lyrics tweaked to say, “Hands ... washing hands.”  [Me:  He had to cancel his 50th Anniversary tour a couple of months ago because he has Parkinson's.]
  • Are we allowed to chuckle yet? We’d better, psychologists and humorists say. Laughter can be the best medicine, they argue, so long as it’s within the bounds of good taste. And in a crisis, it can be a powerful coping mechanism.
  • Laughter is a symbol of hope, and it becomes one of our greatest needs of life, right up there with toilet paper. It’s a physical need people have. You can’t underestimate how it heals people and gives them hope.
  • We have 60,000 thoughts a day and many of them are very disturbing. Laughter helps the brain relax.
  • There’s Fox News anchor Julie Banderas tweeting: “How long is this social distancing supposed to last? My husband keeps trying to get into the house.”
  • Michael Knight, a 29-year-old musician and a caseworker for people with mental disabilities, has been breaking the tension by posting memes like: “They said a mask and gloves were enough to go to the grocery store. They lied. Everyone else had clothes on.”
  • “Just a month ago, who would have appreciated being given a roll of toilet paper?” she said. “I mean, the whole world is upside down.”
Donald Trump is hanging in there.  From nowhere comes this old man, Dr. Anthony Fauci, who will be 80 in a few months.  How can Trump cope with an individual who has character, prestige, eminence and trustworthiness?  Well, The New York Times a week ago reported a growing sense of impatience.  Business Insider said "frustrated."

Dr. Anthony Fauci is here and there being referred to as Ol' Blue Eyes.  Shirts and socks and stuff with his image are selling out.

He deserves all that:
  • Is an accomplished scientist who has won numerous awards, including from three Presidents.  Will there be a fourth?
  • Authored and co-authored more than 1000 scientific publications and earned 31 honorary degrees from universities worldwide.
  • I'm not worried about myself.  I'm worried about the job I have to do.
Finally, a vegan does not eat or use animal products.  Some toilet papers apparently include animal products.  I wonder what.   But vegan toilet paper?


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Monday, March 30, 2020

COVID-19: And the U.S. 2020 Census

Worldometer:

The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 200 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances: the Diamond Princess cruise ship harbored in Yokohama, Japan, and the Holland America's MS Zaandam cruise ship. The day is reset after midnight GMT+0.


On the change of deaths over the past 24 hours:

DAY  
   China   Italy   USA   Spain   Germany   S. Korea  WORLD

Mar 18        11  475       41      105             2     
        19         8  427       21      165            15 
        20         3  627       18      213            15
        21         7  793       32      285            15
        22         6  651       98      375              9               6
        23         9  601       85      435            24               7        1631
        24         7  743     100      489            33               9        1983
        25         4  683     129      454            47               6        1987
        26         6  712       73      498            33               5        1801
        27         5  919     182      569            71               8        2782
        28         3  889     241      674            52               5        2609
        29         5  756     169      624            49               8        2706
        30         4  812     271      537            19               6        2849

Summary:

  • Yesterday was a promising day.  Today, not so good.
  • Italy, the USA and the World all saw increases in the number of new deaths.  The U.S. had our largest new deaths day yet.  Same for the World. 
  • South America is beginning to show more cases and deaths.
  • Africa remains largely unaffected, but many countries are not reporting their statistics.
Read how this coronavirus enters and attacks your body.  Reminds me of Michael Crichton's Andromeda Strain, with a lot more medical detail.

Just about half a century ago, Crichton, a former medical doctor, published a techno-novel about a deadly extraterrestrial microoganism infecting New Mexico.  Samples were transported to a secret lab 60 miles from Las Vegas.  No RNA/DNA, but an entity that keeps mutating and can convert energy into matter.

The main character is a professor from Stanford University.  A movie (Rotten Tomatoes:  69%/73%) directed by Robert Wise was released in 1971, featuring Arthur Hill as this doctor.  In 2008, Ridley and Tony Scott had Benjamin Bratt as this character in an eponymous miniseries.  Rotten Tomatoes thought this was a dull mutation (30%).  Also in the cast was Daniel Dae Kim, as a doctor.  A sequel, written by Daniel Wilson, entitled The Andromeda Evolution, was written last year.  But Crichton passed away in 2008, so why is his name at the top of this book?  Something for you to answer.  Now that you are only mostly watching your television set, you might be able find the above in Netflix, Amazon Prime or RedStop.

Yesterday iHeart and Fox showed a one hour fundraising program hosted by Elton John. Excellent cast, as you can see.  Everything was produced while physically distancing themselves.  The Back Street Boys excelled, mainly because they sung a song I actually knew.  Also, harmonizing from five different locations must have been a challenge. Hard to believe they have been entertaining for more than a quarter century.  Of course, Elton John has been doing this for 53 years.  The show itself reminded me of a typical PBS fundraiser, for two charities.  It took me 30 minutes to watch the hour.

Totally changing subjects, by now you surely must have responded to U.S. Census 2020, something that has been going on since 1790.  Everything is kept confidential...for 72 years.  So what info you provide will be publicly revealed in 2092.

I got the initial mailing early in March, and a reminder that I had not yet completed the questionnaire a few days later.  Underscored is the excoriation that, by law, your response is required.  But you will not be penalized, you are only obligated to participate.  The deadline is April Fool's Day, April 1, 2020...which is Wednesday. 

The directions said this would only take 10 minutes of your life.  I was told to go to my2020census.gov and type-in my census ID, which is provided in the mailing.  I went yesterday, and the whole process took THREE MINUTES!  I'm a certified klutz when it comes to getting to a government site and succeeding in doing anything.  It took me 3 minutes.  SO GO!!!

Why is it important to complete this survey?  I asked SIRI on my iPhone, and she said:
  • Federal funding for schools, clinics, hospitals, school lunches, Medicaid, Head Start, new roads and services for where you live will be affected by your participation.
  • Hundreds of billions of Federal dollars will be allocated according to the survey results.
  • Electoral districts will be determined.
  • Businesses will make decision on where to re-locate or leave.
  • And a lot more.
Okay, if you don't respond online, this only means that one of the half a million people being hired to reach people like you during May through July will contact you.  The problem is COVID-19.  The deadline for the Census Bureau to send the final report to the President and Congress is December.  Of course, this date can be delayed if necessary.

In 2010, 74% of Americans participated.  This was a mail-in census.  Livonia, Michigan took first place with 88%.

Most U.S. adults have heard of the census and intend to participate ... but intent to participate differs among demographic groups

Here is another tally:


84% of Americans plan to follow-through on this census.  You should, too.  I did, and it took me 3 minutes.

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