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Tuesday, March 24, 2020

COVID-1 vs THE ECONOMY

Worldometer:

  WORLD   410,465 +31,683 18,295    1,788

About the key statistic:  new deaths over the past 24 hours:

                       Mar 18  Mar 19   Mar 20   Mar 21  Mar 22    Mar 23  Mar 24

China                    11             8            3            7            6            9           7
Italy                     475        427        627        793         651        601      743
Iran                     147         149        149        123         129        127      122
Spain                  105         165        213        285         375        435      489
Germany                2           15          15          15             9          24        33
USA                     41           21          18          32           98          85      100
South Korea                                                                     2           7          9
Japan, Norway, Australia, Brazil, Thailand, Russia          0           0          4
WORLD                                                                                  1631     1983

China appears to be okay and Iran has stabilized deaths.  However, the World continues to suffer from more deaths, including the USA.  We are certainly not at the peak, yet.

Under these conditions, President Donald Trump appears to be mostly listening to a few conservative and business interests, saying, We can't have the cure be worse than the problem.  Mind you, he doesn't want to overrule the various lockdowns in certain states, nor does he want to reopen the economy of the country today.  But he suggest weeks instead of months.  He could be right, and time will tell.  However, President Trump cannot stop listening to the science of reality, which more and more seems to be what has been hurting him and the country.

For now, the wise policy is to over order on ventilators and other critical hospital needs, including space.  The Feds must stimulate production by agreeing to purchase whatever is made, with certain limits on ultimate production.  A hospital ventilator costs between $5,000 and $50,000.  Two patients can use one ventilator.

The White House absolutely needs to immediately send whatever it can to New York, and there apparently are 20,000 or so ventilators just waiting in the federal stockpile.  Sending 400 of them to New York is insufficient.  This infection clusters and spreads  out over time.  Other states almost surely will approach the New York infection problem (New York has around ten times more cases than California or Washington) into the future, but they don't need these supplies today.  Fairness is tertiary to current need. 

Congress must pass the $2 trillion COVID-19 package, hopefully by tomorrow, and work on the next $2 trillion, which if all goes well, might not be necessary.  But all might not go well, so speed is essential.  However, the stock market must know something, for the Dow Jones today jumped 2100 or 11.4%, the largest percentage increase since 1933, not long after the 1929 depression.

Aim toward testing everyone as fast as possible, and retest those who were infected.  Only when we know this information, and the death rate begins to decline, can the nation begin to implement any business as usual plan.

I'm in a dilemma about what I do today regarding visiting a doctor.  I'll report tomorrow:


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