C'MON NOW, IS ALCOHOL GOOD OR BAD FOR YOU?

    From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82

July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465

Jan     14       4142    15512       1151       189      712

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194

April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37

May     4        853     13667        3025      3786      59 

June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95

 July    7         251      8440        1595        817     411

Aug     4         656    10120        1118         532     423 

Sept   22      2228      9326          839        279     124

Oct      6       2102      8255          543        315       59

Nov    3        1436      7830         186         458       23

Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28

Jan     7        2025      6729         148        285      140

Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175

Mar     2        1778     7756          335        173        28 

         11        1022      6002         465           88       28

         18          721      5214         380           69       39

         24          649      5008         300           82       33

         31          676      4287         276           28       44

Summary:  

• Let's look at South Korea, which four days ago reported that new COVID-19 cases were finally declining, down to 187,213 on Monday.  
• Well, yesterday this number was back up to 424,528, by far the highest in the world.
• Plus, there were 432 deaths, (8.4 new deaths/million population) #2 to the USA with 676 (2 new deaths/million).
• The U.S. continues to ease restrictions, and with four times the new deaths/million, so is South Korea.
• However, China, with essentially no new deaths has locked down its largest city, Shanghai.
• In the meantime, New Zealand continued to suffer with 15,977 new cases yesterday, or 3195 new cases/million.  
• South Korea is at 8275 new cases/million, while the U.S. rate is 93 new cases/million.
• New Zealand had 12 deaths, or a rate of 2.4/million, about that of the U.S.
• Also in Oceania, Australia had 67,379 new cases, or a rate of 2592 new cases/million, and 34 new deaths, or a rate of 1.3 deaths/million, lower than the U.S.

The American Medical Association recognizes alcoholism as a disease.  What does that mean?  Of course we all know that binge drinking is not smart.  So is drinking too much water or eating too much vegetables.  To quote Healthy Eating:

Eating too many vegetables could be just as unhealthy as eating not enough vegetables, just in a different way. All those health bloggers with plates composed solely of veggies and a drizzle of tahini are actually fostering some really unhealthy habits.

And if you're wondering what tahini is:  ground sesame butter/paste.

Today the Journal of the American Medical Association Network Open said:

People who do not drink alcohol and those who drink an average of seven drinks/week have similar rates of heart disease.  However, the risk increases rapidly as alcohol consumption rises.

The bottom line is to have only one alcoholic drink/day.

Another new study reported this month indicated that light-to-moderate drinking may carry risks to the brain.  This applied to adults aged 50 and over who consumed a pint of beer or a glass of wine/day:

• Study from the University of Pennsylvania analyzing the data from more than 36,000 adults.
• Those consuming four drinks/day aged 10 years more than those who were teetotalers. 

Again, the message was don't drink too much, and four/day is too much.

But, aha, a Netherlands Cohort Study reported in 2020:

• In this large prospective study, we found statistically significant positive associations between alcohol intake and the probability of reaching 90 years in both men and women. Overall, the highest probability was found in those consuming 5– < 15 g/d alcohol, which corresponds to 0.5–1.5 glass of alcoholic beverage per day.
• A goodly number of binge drinkers died before reaching 90.

Thus, again, looks like a drink/day is fine, but don't binge.

According to this 2021 U.S. study:

• 86% of adults have consumed an alcoholic beverage at least once.
• 95,000 people in the U.S die each year from alcohol-related causes.  This represents 4% of all deaths.  
• For those who drink, 9% of the consumed calories come from ethanol.
• Binge drinking is defined as five or more drinks for a male and 4 or more for a female in two hours.
• It does not recommend low to moderate alcohol drinking.  In other words, DON'T DRINK ALCOHOL.
• And while this is counterintuitive, if not contradictory:  to minimize the risks of harm:  this study suggests you stay within the guidelines for the moderate consumption in the Dietary Guidelines for Americans, which recommends up to one drink per day for women or two for men.

The following count as one alcoholic drink equivalent:  12 fluid ounces of regular beer (5% alcohol), 5 fluid ounces of wine (12% alcohol), or 1.5 fluid ounces of 80 proof distilled spirits (40% alcohol).  

There are 25.4 ounces in a bottle of wine.  This means that a male can drink 39% that bottle/day.

So is alcohol good or bad for you?  

• The message from the medical community wavers between zero and one drink/day.  
• Binge-drinking is very bad for you.  
• If you want to live longer, stop at one...and maybe even up to two for a male.

• 
  If you are in good shape, moderate drinking makes you 25% to 40% less likely to have a heart attack, stroke or hardened arteries.  Why?  apparently small amounts of alcohol can raise your high density lipoprotein (good cholesterol).  Implied in "good shape" is sufficient exercise and normal weight.
• Moderate drinkers are less likely to get kidney stones:  41% less for beer drinkers and 33% for wine drinkers.
• Alcohol does make you more sociable and happier.  I can confirm that in my dining room experience at 15 Craigside.
• 
  Alcohol improves your sex life.
• While that recent study above seems to say alcohol was bad for your brain and heart, other studies have shown that some alcohol can reduce dementia and heart problems.
• Happy-hour cocktail or glass of wine with dinner makes you less likely to develop type 2 diabetes, which is the most common diabetic ailment.

So is alcohol good or bad for you?  It's your life.  Only you can determine what is good for you.  Probably best to heed medical advice.  Then again...

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DOES YOUR STATE HAVE AN OFFICIAL MICROBE?

So what is microbe?  Another term is microorganism, those tiny living things too small to be seen by the naked eye.  Is a virus a microbe?  Yes.  Is it alive?  That remains debatable.  As we have recently been overcome by just one, COVID-19, thought I'd deviate from the script and say few more things about viruses:

• 
  Is the smallest of microbes.
• Walter Reed discovered the first human virus, a yellow fever virus, in 1901.  He proved that this ailment was transmitted by the bite of a mosquito.  That hospital in the DC area is named after him.
• 500 million rhinoviruses (cause the common cold) could fit on the head of a pin.

• 
  There are ten viruses for every bacterium or archaeon.
• However, viruses are 1000 times smaller than bacteria or archaea.
• Some of you might not have previously heard of archaea, for Carl Woese only discovered it in 1977.
• Antonio van Leeuwenhoek discovered bacteria in 1676.
• As this is science day, a few more bits of info about bacteria and archaea.

• They are about the same size and have about equal numbers on Planet Earth.  They form two of the three domains of life (and that should be kiNgdoms).

• There are 10 to the 31st power viruses, 10 million times more than all the stars out there.
• Virology Blog says that:  IF YOU LINED UP END TO END ALL THESE VIRUSES, IT WOULD STRETCH OUT 200 MILLION LIGHT YEARS.  The diameter of our Milky Way Galaxy is only 100,000 light years.
• You think that is incredible?

Line up end to end, all the bacteria on this tiny planet, and that tower would stretch out 10 billion light years...about from here to the edge of the universe!

• While the name virus was coined from the Latin for slimy liquid or poison, there is such a thing as a good virus.  380 trillion of them live on and in you.  Ten times the number of bacteria.

Where was I?  Oh, a new interest area is beginning to invade our state legislatures.

• The first state to declare an Official State Microbe, in 2013, was Oregon, which chose Saccharomyces cerevisiae (brewer's or baker's yeast).   

• 
  New Jersey was next in 2019 with Streptomyces griseus.  Why?  It was discovered in heavily manured soil.  So what?  It is the first antibiotic active against tuberculosis.  Albert Schatz first isolated streptomycin in 1943 from Streptomyces griseus.  He did this while a PhD student at The State University of Rutgers, which of course is in New Jersey.  His major professor, Selman Waksman, who not only won a Nobel Prize in 1952 because of this discovery, but was sued by Schatz for not sharing in the royalties.  Schatz won.

• 
  In 2021, Penicillium rubens NRRL 1951 became the Illinois State Microbe.  
• We all know that Alexander Fleming in 1928 found the mold Penicillium notatum, the first antiobiotic, which helped cure penicillium.
• However, during World War II, that microbe could not produce enough antibiotic cures.

• 
  A team secretly came to Illinois and developed Penicillium rubens, which solved the problem.  The company that succeeded was Pfizer, then a small chemical company that had been kicking around since 1849.  Yes, that same Pfizer of pandemic fame.  Read this fascinating article.

That's it, only three states have an official state microbe.  Here is a fairly recent article reporting on what other states are doing, but nothing else has officially been approved:

• Alabama:  Vibrio vulnifuics.

• 
  Alaska:  Trichinella nativa, nematode worm that required you to cook bear and walrus meat to at least 160 F.  Here is something you did and did not know:  trichinosis is caused by a parasite called trichinella.  For pork, it is Trichinella spiralis.  Even today you should not consume under-cooked pork.  Especially watch out for chitterlings, made from the large intestines of a pig.  This problem is caused by a bacterium, Y. enterocolitica, which results in yersiniosis.
• Every state is in some stage of considering a State Microbe.  Learn about your state here.

My orchids just behind me (you can see my computer monitor in the background) are blooming.

The top one, of course is Honohono, which has a heavenly fragrant smell.  The other one on the bottom has a coconut aroma.

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WHY HAS MOST OF AFRICA AVOIDED THE DEATHS CAUSED BY COVID-19?

 We have suffered five COVID-19 waves.  Will there be a 6th?

Initially, cases were dominated by large cities, which are mostly Democratic.  Thus, the first wave experience a lot fewer Republican deaths.  Later waves gravitated towards fewer Democratic deaths.

A higher percentage of Biden-voters get vaccinated.  Over 91% of Democrats have had at least one shot, and only 60% of Republicans.

The primary reason is vaccination, as per million population, 250 deaths occurred in Trump counties, compared to 78 in Biden counties.

About that possible 6th wave?  Most likely, when the Omicron Stealth B2 subvariant creates a mild bump in April.  Then, WHO can pretty much declare the end of this pandemic.  But I've now said this at least three times.

Incidentally, just about 25% of Americans have been infected with COVID-19.  World?  Only 6%.  

Of course, this is where asymptomaticity and under reporting come into play.  If it turns out that the asymptomatic rate is 50%, then 50% of Americans have been infected.  This rate, though, could also be 88%, meaning with all those vaccinations, we must already be at a high level of herd immunity.

Would I want to be tested for antibodies to determine if I caught COVID-19 and was asymptomatic?  Take-home kit costs around $7 at your pharmacy.  Not really, although I do plan to get my second booster when the CDC allows this.  Official word could occur today, and almost certainly will by the end of the week.

The global fear has long been Africa.  Aside from South Africa and spotty upsurges in a few other countries, the cases and deaths/million rates have been astonishingly low.  Take Kamakwie, Sierra Leone, for example:

• Three doctors for every 100,000 people.  The U.S. has a ten times higher rate.
• Only 11 total cases since the pandemic began.
• However, regional hospitals are packed with malaria patients.
• Very little capability in hospitals for serious COVID cases if they occurred.
• People cram together for soccer matches and concerts with no masks.
• 14% of population has been vaccinated.

But, to no one's surprise, it turns out the official COVID-19 African statistics are seriously flawed because tests are rarely taken and deaths are woefully undercounted.  Throughout Africa, preliminary analysis suggests that 65% of those living in Africa have been infected.  Sierra Leone could well be 78%.  U.S. rate?  24%.  However, there remains uncertainty about the asymptomatic rate, and if this is 50%, as could be possible, the infection rate would still be less than 50%.

But then, why are there so few deaths?

• 
  The median age is only 19, compared to 43 in Europe and 38 in the U.S.  Very few young people die from COVID-19.
• Asymptomatic rate increases with age.  Chances are that younger people have four times the asymptomatic rate as the elderly.
• The young population of that continent means that few have underlying health issues.
• Africa is mostly hot, and warm weather lowers the rate of infection.
• Perhaps exposure to other pathogens like Lassa fever and Ebola offers protection.
• People mostly die in homes, not hospitals.
• 
  During Zambia's delta wave, 87% of bodies in hospital morgues were infected with COVID.
• Population of 19 million.
• 316,550 cases, or 1923 cases/million.  U.S. rate is 244,376/million!  How can Zambia have a case count 1/127 of the U.S.?
• Zambia:  3966 deaths, or 209 deaths/million.  U.S. rate is 3004 deaths/million.
• In most African countries they don't test for COVID-19 at death, so of course there will be a much lower COVID-19 death count.

In short, the median age of the World is 30, while that of Africa is 19.  Also, while the U.S. has 16% of our population older than 64, Africa has only 7%.  In the U.S. 80% of all COVID-19 deaths came from this older age group?

Notwithstanding, the African Paradox of so few dying is a turning out to be at least partially explained by gross under reporting.   

• The World Health Organization last month said that the number of coronavirus cases may be 7 times higher than what has been reported, and deaths could be 2-3 times higher.
• The USA with a population of 344 million just passed a million deaths.  Africa with 1.2 billion people only had 251,444 deaths as of 15March2022.  Multiply by three and you only have 772,332 deaths.  This big differential must be because of undercounting in Africa.

There was a time when rich countries were accused of taking care of themselves, leaving Africa vulnerable.  While this has indeed happened, for the U.S. today shows a doses-given rate of 168/100 (meaning each person received 1.68 shots), with the world average at 142/100, compare that to 0.9/100 for the Congo and 2.5/100 for Chad.   The growing sense is that, while the rich got safer faster, Africa was too late to get "saved" anyway, and the universal priority today is to get the elderly, anywhere, vaccinated and boosted.  They are the only ones significantly vulnerable to potential death from COVID.

Finally, keep a watch on African population growth.  In this projection, Nigeria replaces China as #2 by 2100, which in a few years will be topped by India.

Did you know that the USA today has the third largest world population?  We would drop to #4 by 2100 because of Nigeria.  From only one today, five of the 10 most populated countries in 2100 will be from Africa.

Yesterday I reported that Will Smith slapped Chris Rock at the Academy Award ceremonies.  In Smith's speech accepting an Oscar for Best Actor, he apologized to everyone, but Rock.  He later added Chris Rock.

March Madness sneaks into April for the final fours:

• Women:
• On Friday, April Fool's Day in Target Center, Minneapolis, it will be South Carolina vs Louisville (7PM EDT on ESPN) and Stanford vs Connecticut (9:30PM), which was the only non-#1 to reach this game.

• 
  The heavy favorite is South Carolina, picked to beat Louisville by 8 points.  UConn is a 1.5 point favorite to win over Stanford.

• 
  The winners will meet on Sunday, April 3.
• South Carolina:  -150, or bet $150 to win $100, plus your original $150--or another way of looking at these odds is that South Carolina has a 60% chance to win the national championship.
• Connecticut:  +200
• Stanford:  +400
• Louisville:  +800 (or 11% chance of winning championship)
• 
  Men:
• On Saturday, April 2 in the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, it will be Kansas is a 3.5 point pick over Villanova at 6:09PM EDT on TBS, and Duke is a 4 point pick to beat North Carolina at 8:49PM EDT.  
• Did you know that the Superdome name changed last year from Mercedes-Benz to Caesars?  

• 
  The sentimental favorite is Duke, for this will be head coach Mike Krzyzewski's final game.  I still have trouble spelling and pronouncing his name.
• The winners will meet on Monday, April 4, at 9:10PM EDT on TBS.
• Before the Sweet 16, the odds agains Duke being champion were 14:1.
• Today, Duke is favored to win the championship at +160 (38.5%).

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THE WORLD TODAY

COVID-19:

• All signs seem to indicate that the Omicron stealth B.2 subvariant is more contagious than B1, which has caused the recent surge of new cases.  
• Chances are that in a week or two or three, there will be a minor wave of new B2 cases in the USA.
• However, the combination of vaccinations/boosters, previously infected numbers and relatively mild symptoms will almost surely mean a continued decline of deaths. 
• Only 30% of Republican adults have received a booster.
• 
  There is a new drug called Evusheld from AstraZeneca that is now available to protect unvaccinated individuals who cannot be vaccinated.  There are 850,000 doses available.  This antibody cocktail taken by injection costs $1,000, and is covered by the government.  Typical COVID-19 vaccines cost $3-$30/dose.

• 
  Also, there is Paxlovid to prevent severe COVID illness, which is only available to those 65 and older.  Costs $530/course, which medical plans or the government will cover.
• The Biden Administration will most likely tomorrow announce approval for a second booster for those 65 and older.

• 
  Something different is happening in China.
• Shanghai, with a population of more than 26 million, is locking down to test everyone.
• So far, it is appearing that 86% of all new cases are ASYMPTOMATIC!  Maybe vaccinations have helped, or perhaps the latest B2 subvariant is uniquely docile.
• Just in Shanghai, with a two-day total of nearly 10,000 new cases, no deaths were recorded.  However, let's see what this number is in two weeks.
• Almost all deaths from COVID-19 today are the unvaccinated.  Simple solution:  get vaccinated and live longer.

Ukraine War.

• Latest mentioned Putin strategy is to control certain sections of Ukraine.
• Biden remarks that Putin cannot remain in power.

Will Smith.

• Slapped Chris Rock at the Academy Award ceremonies last night for making a joke about his wife Jada.
• Went on to win an Oscar for Best Actor.
• He also a decade ago slapped a Ukrainian reporter who tried to kiss him at the Moscow premiere of Men in Black 3.

Razzies.

• Netflix's Diana won the most Razzie awards, five, including worst picture.  From a Guardian review:

This is a Rocky Horror Picture Show of cluelessness and misjudged Judy Garlandification. I can imagine masochists getting together for Diana: The Musical parties, just to sing the most nightmarish lines along with the cast. The rest of us will need a long lie down.

• LeBron James was named worst actor.
• Will Smith, who previously had won four Razzies, won a redeemer award for his role in King Richard.

• 
  Ironically, previous Oscar winner Jared Leto, here won Worst Supporting Actor for his role in House of Gucci.
• Bruce Willis won a special Worse Performance statue for "going through the motions in an astonishing eight low-budget movies in one year."
• According to organizers, the Golden Raspberry Award members come from "almost every continent and 49 U.S. states, except one of the Carolinas."

Ketanji Brown Jackson's Supreme Court nomination will pass through the Senate Judiciary Committee in a week and be confirmed by the full senate probably on April 9.  58% of Americans support this coming decision.

Hope to be on our Fall trip to the Orient.  This photo was sent to me by someone who was just there.

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