IS DONALD TRUMP SUFFERING FROM DEMENTIA?

Our past presidents have not been perfect.  From Psychology Today:

According to a study by Jonathan Davidson of the Duke University Medical Center and colleagues, who reviewed biographical sources for the first 37 presidents (1776-1974), half of those men had been afflicted by mental illness—and 27% met those criteria while in office, something that could have clearly affected their ability to perform their jobs.

But has any U.S. President ever suffered from Alzheimer's while in office?  From all indications, Ronald Reagan might have been the only one.

Reagan's memory was a political issue even before he became president. His adversaries often claimed his tendency to forget names and make contradictory statements was a sign of dementia. Reagan tended to substitute terms such as "thing" for specific nouns, and favored using the same words repetitively. He used significantly fewer unique words in the years toward the end of his presidency, noted a study published in the Journal of Alzheimer's Disease.

At the age of 70, Reagan was the oldest President ever inaugurated.  The record was just broken this year by Donald Trump.

Sure, Donald Trump has always been a bully, and, probably too, a serial sexual predator.  Seems like those traits actually helped him get elected as PUS (President of the U.S.) #45.  But his actions as leader of the free world have been so bizarre that I've long wondered about his sanity.  He shows:

• memory loss
• difficulty communicating
• irrational reasoning
• incapability with handling complex tasks
• lack of planning and organizing
• confusion
• paranoia

...wait, a minute, according to the Mayo Clinic, those are signs of dementia.  Once you gain this mental condition, it only gets worse, with exceptions:

• immune disorder
• endocrine abnormalities
• nutritional deficiencies
• reaction to medication
• subdural hematomas
• poisoning
• brain tumor
• anoxia
• hydrocephalus

Chances are low that Trump's disturbed condition can be described by this latter list.

Today, Trump and Joe Scarborough (former Republican Congressman who can now be seen on Morning Joe) had a Twitter exchange.  Said Scarborough:

• People close to him during the campaign told me he (Trump) had early stages of dementia and that he is completely detached from reality.
• You have somebody inside the White House that the New York Daily News says is mentally unfit, that people close to him say is mentally unfit.

Scarborough also describes Trump as "not well," "a madman," and "profoundly unstable."  He further said it is time (and this is a new pathway I did not know existed) for the Cabinet to invoke the 25th Amendment, which allows for the removal of the President from office when he is "unable to discharge the powers and duties of this office."  That photo to the left was taken last year.

So there is now a multitude of ways for terminating President Donald Trump's PUS #45 term:

• Conviction and impeachment initiated by the Mueller Committee.  Looks ominous.
• Indictment and conviction for rape of a 13-year old.  Snopes hints that this case is not closed.
• Dementia, with action instituted by his Cabinet.
• Voluntary resignation, sort of like Richard Nixon.
• Death by old age.
• Assassination.

You can actually bet on the above through Paddypower on WILL TRUMP BE IMPEACHED IN HIS FIRST TERM?

• Yes  5/4
• No   4/7

What do those numbers mean?  Scroll down to near the bottom of the right column to the bettingexpert Odds Converter Tool and type-in 5/4 in the Fractional Odds box.  Click on Convert and you will get 44.44%, meaning there is still less than a 50-50 chance that he will be forced to leave by impeachment.  But dementia just hit the popular news today.  See where these odds go in the coming days.

When Donald Trump first entered the Presidential Campaign in 2015, the odds on his winning were 500/1.  Here are some current odds:

• Making a guest appearance at a World Wrestling Entertainment event:  250/1
• Russian footage of Donald Trump exhibiting his golden shower performance:  5/1  (What is a golden shower?  Go ahead, google it.)

• That Trump will again say in public "grab' em by the pussy":  50/1
• Chance that Trump will change his hairstyle while in the White House:  100/1
• Will succeed in building the Mexican Wall:  6/1

• Trump's temper will provoke the launch of a nuclear warhead:  250/1
• Likelihood of assassination:  100/1
• Odds of Trump leaving during his first term (any way, including impeachment): 1/1 (even or 50%)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average crashed through the 24,000 mark for the first time, ending up 332 to 24,272, another all-time high.  The Dow has jumped 6,000 points since Donald Trump's election.  Maybe he's not so crazy after all.

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Tropical Cyclone Ockhi is strengthening, but the current projection shows a track making landfall west of Mumbai:

There is another storm, Tropical Cyclone Dahlia, which just formed off Indonesia:

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AS THE WORLD TURNS

Life in the USA is a soap opera with occasional massacres.  Recent mass shootings killed more than 80 people in Las Vegas and Texas.  So what does Congress do?  House Republicans advanced legislation to EXPAND gun owners' rights.  The House Judiciary Committee will vote today on a National Rifle Association-supported bill that will ALLOW A GUN OWNER WITH A STATE-ISSUED CONCEALED CARRY PERMIT TO CARRY A HANDGUN IN ANY STATE THAT ALLOWS THIS.  But this is the United States of America, and there are too many still living in those days a quarter millennium ago when there was no police force, the British were still around and Indians were then on the warpath.

There was an attempt to ban the "bump stock" device, but that fizzled.  House Speaker  Paul Ryan said the Texas shooting showed the need to enforce current gun laws.  Huh?

Some interesting statistics about weapons of destruction:

• Almost 120,000 Americans are annually shot, and more than 30,000 die.  Traffic?  In 2016 37,461 suffered motor vehicle deaths.  But it was 54,589 in 1972.  Does anyone call for the end of cars?  I'm being sarcastic.
• The Washington Post estimates that the number of firearms nationwide at 357 million.  Our population is 323 million.
• One of the grotesque reactions to mass shootings is that the price of gun company stocks go up.  Why?  Gunowners become concerned that government will soon pass laws to terminate gun sales.

• There is about one firearm/person in the U.S.  
• #2 is Serbia with 0.58, 
• the World averages 0.1, 
• #78 is Iran at 0.07, 
• #99 is China at 0.05 and 
• #162 is Japan at 0.006.
• The World murder rate/100,000 of 5 is about the same as the U.S.  The European Union is only 1.  El Salvador is the highest with 109, and rates in Central America, especially, and South America, are high.
• While those statistics immediately above are not particularly alarming, Americans are 10 times more likely to be killed by guns than 22 other highly developed nations.

Finally, Federal law does not restrict the open carrying of firearms in public, although:

Three states (California, Florida, and Illinois) and the District of Columbia generally prohibit people from openly carrying firearms in public. Two states (New York and South Carolina) prohibit openly carrying handguns, but not long guns, and another three states (Massachusetts, Minnesota, and New Jersey) prohibit openly carrying long guns, but not handguns. In the remaining states, people are generally allowed to openly carry firearms, although some states require a permit or license to do so.

Changing subjects to a real soap opera and the British Royalty, Prince Harry is now engaged to American actress Meghan Markle.  She is:

• 36, three years older than Harry
• divorced
• a Catholic
• like Barack Obama, gray--mother is a Black yoga instructor and dad White cinematographer

No soap, but a lot of turning, I've long been intrigued that a one-bladed wind turbine was the most efficient.  However, you need a balance on the other end, and the device is inherently unstable.  

It is said that, while a two-bladed wind machine is more efficient than a three-blader, 90% of wind turbines today have three because they operate better (this is a complicated analysis involving chatter, wobble, wind speed change, etc.)  

Those old rural farm windmills with ten and more blades are very inefficient.  However, the latest development from China, reported on at the end, seems to go back to a lot of blades.  

So you say, if a one-blade turbine is the most efficient, what about a bladeless wind device?  Glad you asked, for Saphon Energy, a Tunisian company, is attempting to market their zero blade technology.  It is said there is no noise.  Windmills can at most capture 59.3% of the kinetic energy, with the average in the 30% to 40% range.  This revolutionary development is somewhat like the spinnaker of a yacht and is more efficient than conventional wind energy conversion devices, as touted.  Good luck.

That's not all, Vortex Bladeless from Spain uses vorticity.  There are no gears or bearings, and the cost to generate electricity is projected to be 40 % lower than conventional wind systems, they hope.

Which brings us back to vertical axis turbines and real blades.  I've always thought this form made the most sense for maintenance reasons, and there are usually two blades.

And, finally, what about The Super Turbine?

We're back to a lot blades, but Super Turbine Inc of China has big dreams.

THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS JUMPED 104 TO 23,940, again breaking its all-time record.

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In the Indian Ocean is Tropical Cyclone Three, soon to to attain Category 2 strength and, maybe, circle back towards Mumbai:

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BREAKING NEWS: The Latest Developments in the Future of Energy

I have almost been negligent in reporting on solar, energy wind power, biomass, the Blue Revolution, etc.  This is primarily because King Hubbert was wrong.  Not only was Peak Oil NOT reached in 1970, but in 2018 the USA will produce more oil than ever before (which was in 1970).

The result is that petroleum prices have been less than half what they were a few years ago:

In fact, oil went up to $145/barrel in 2008, and is today in the low $50's.  Worse, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has the future price of petroleum at $51.60/barrel in December of 2026.  To be more specific, the price of oil could well be unchanged for the next 9 years.  Combined with the reality that people just cannot perceive the tiny annual rise of sea level and average temperatures, and, with a U.S. White House disbelieving in any notion of global climate warming, you have the current situation today where the focus in the country is not on the future, but energy and profits today. 

So in the title above I used CNN's tactic in flashing BREAKING NEWS to gain your attention.  The fact of the matter is that, while on the one hand, nothing much is happening in green energy, on the other, solar and wind projects are continuing to be supported around the world?  Why?  For one,  renewable energy is cheaper than new coal and nuclear power plants.  

For those with poor graphic interpretive skills, what the above says is that geothermal energy in 2020 will be the cheapest and wind farms on land slightly better than natural gas.  Coal and nuclear options will cost twice that of geothermal.  Compound these facts with the historic metastability of natural gas prices, now being environmentally challenged by serious fracking problems, renewable energy electricity now doesn't anymore elicit BREAKING NEWS.  This, of course, is good news.  However, don't expect any immediate reduction of carbon dioxide because the rise of the renewables will take time to make a difference.  In fact, the percent of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere will this year be the highest in 800,000 years.

Keep in mind, though, that only about 40% of the energy consumed goes toward electricity generation.  Transportation is currently mostly run on gasoline and jet fuel.  While electric cars are making inroads, biofuels are suffering.  Why?  Many of these renewable options can only compete with gasoline when petroleum is $100 /barrel and more.  Ethanol from corn was a social disaster and ethanol from corn stalk/husk and other biomass forms has turned out to be a challenge.

Electric vehicles are making inroads, but lithium will be the final battery.  That is the limit shown on the Table of Chemical Elements.  There might be liquid electrolytes and nanotechnology developments to come, but the fact of the matter is that compared to batteries, fuel cells, on a weight/volume basis, will take a car at least twice as far, and probably further. 

Why not then use fuel cells?  Toyota, partnering with BMW, is trying with their Mirai.  Honda, Kia and Hyundai are right behind.  But there are detractors.  Elon Musk of Tesla has said that fuel cell cars are:

   ...incredibly dumb, extremely silly, mind-bogglingly stupid, and most succinctly, bullshit.

On my recent visit to Japan, I consulted with probably the pre-eminent professorial authority on this subject, and in kinder words, he pretty much agreed with Musk.  I wrote the Hydrogen Act in 1980 which became law and once chaired the U.S. Department of Energy's Hydrogen Technical Advisory Panel.  I have long been a cheerleader for the Hydrogen Society, but I agree that hydrogen cars today are not ready for prime time.  Someday, perhaps, but there is no infrastructure and this gaseous fuel will be far too expensive for a long time to come.  Here is Part 1 on my HuffPo on this option.  Part 2.  Part 3.

But, then, I had a Part 5.  I have long been saying that the ideal pathway to ground transport is the direct methanol fuel cell (DMFC).  Here is a second article from the Huffington Post.  First, because methanol is much cheaper than hydrogen.  Second, that methanol is the only liquid that can be utilized by a fuel cell without reforming.  Third, that the current infrastructure can largely be adapted.  And fourth, that all the patents for the lithium are owned by the Japanese, and the field of direct methanol cells is wide open.  Why?  Because the Farm Lobby prevented the U.S. Department of Energy to conduct any research on this topic.  Ironically, the world pretty much followed the lead of the U.S. by rushing into ethanol.  

Want to become rich and famous?  The bridge to a cold-fusion powered car will be the direct methanol fuel cell.  Toshiba at one point did have a DMFC for electronic applications.  While biofuels will have problems competing today, a decade of swift development could position more powerful DMFCs for transport commercialization.  When the price of petroleum skyrockets again, as it will, we can then be ready for the next opportunity.

As wallowing as biofuels might be today, there is almost nothing happening with next generation aviation, another of my postings in The Huffington Post.  As hydrogen provides maximum energy with minimum weight, this is the ideal fuel for future jetliners.  When jet fuel is consumed, you have carbon dioxide and other gases.  When hydrogen is used, the waste product is water.  Plus, hydrogen is the most abundant element in the Universe.  It will take 25 years to commercialize hydrogen aviation, so now is the time to get started.  Rinaldo Brutoco is trying with his faster dirigible called the H2Clipper.

All stars, of course, fuse HYDROGEN, to provide energy.  Thus, there is something symbolically sublime about Element One in the Chemical Table.  I have spent my whole professional life on the applications of hydrogen:  

• at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory on laser fusion 
• supporting cold fusion R&D at the University of Hawaii, and a variation, low energy nuclear reactors, seem now to be a possible pathway
• writing the first Congressional legislation to develop the hydrogen jetliner

I don't have any BREAKING NEWS for hydrogen.  This evolution will take time, but surely, those obvious signs from the Big Bang must be a clue for Humanity.

Then, of course, there is now the Hydrogen Bomb threat of North Korea.  And, their missiles are said to be capable of reaching Hawaii.  Hawaii will on Friday resume nuclear attack warning siren tests.

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LAST FLAG FLYING and LADY BIRD

The top three films this weekend were Coco ($49 million), Justice League ($41 million) and Wonder ($22 million).  I avoid animated and comics movies, and just can't go to another Mask.  This was not the Jim Carrey version, which speaks for itself.

I was looking forward to Murder on the Orient Express, mostly because I catch the Trans-Canadian from Vancouver to Toronto next week, but timing was wrong.  The 1974 MOTOE with Albert Finney as Hercule Poiret was better rated, anyway.

So I went to see two productions that mostly depressed me.  Mind you, they were okay, but don't go if you want any kind of truly happy ending.

                                 B.O. Mojo     Rotten Tomatoes        My Rating
                                                     Reviewers  Audience

Last Flag Flying           #18               75             70                  B

Lady Bird                      #11             100             89                  B- 

Last Flag Flying was directed by Richard Linklater (he won the Oscar for Boyhood three years ago), starring Steve Carell, Bryan Cranston and Laurence Fishbone, who are drawn together as Vietnam War marines to meet the body of Carell's son, a marine, killed in Iraq.  This was all about the politics of unpopular wars, although God keeps coming into the conversation.  While mostly solemn, there are moments of humor.  The acting was good, but the minor roles played by two Marines, Yul Vazquez as the Colonel, and J.Q. Johnson as the war buddy of the son, stood out as outstanding.

Lady Bird left me totally dissatisfied. For such a highly rated film (not that many 100's by Rotten Tomatoes reviewers), I was fully expecting a turning point, a memorable moment, anything...and the film simply ended.  The opening scene when Lady Bird jumps out of a car driven by her mother was a shock, but it was almost non-stop bickering, whining, discord and discomfort.  I don't need that.  Only 1.5 hours long, an additional half an hour of pure entertainment would have been appreciated.  Directed and written by Greta Gerwig, 34, and already associated with a few memorable productions, this effort reminds me of Sacramento, her home town, and where the movie took place.  However, there is something about what she has accomplished thus far that has me anticipating something spectacular in her future.  But I still can't help but wonder why most reviewers absolutely loved this film.  But I'm used to being in the tiny minority.

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