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Saturday, December 31, 2022

DAVE BARRY'S 2022 IN REVIEW

Yesterday was about my good 2022 year.  Today, a summary of Dave Barry's humorous view of the world in 2022,  who began with 2022 could have been worse...we could have had nuclear Armageddon.  Before I continue, I'll first segue into what to do today.  Save money, time and agony....watch television:

  • Certainly, all those fireworks the world over, as in Sydney, which already is into 2023:
  • Taiwan's Taipei 101 building and Bangkok:
  •  Hong Kong and Mumbai:
Then, of course, the NCAA football semifinals are on today:  #2 Michigan vs #3 TCU, Fiesta Bowl, 4PM ET, and #1 Georgia vs #4 Ohio State, Peach Bowl, 8PM ET...both on ESPN.  The championship game, also on ESPN, will be played at 7:30PM ET on Monday, January 9.

2023: Los Angeles (Los Angeles Stadium at Hollywood Park, Inglewood, California) - Jan. 9
2024: Houston (NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas) - Jan. 8
2025: Atlanta (Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA) - Jan. 6
2026: Miami (Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida) - Jan. 5

So on to Barry, you can of course read those two articles, or my selected summary below.

IN GENERAL

  • Do you play Wordle?
  • For the 13th consecutive year, the New York Yankees failed to get into the World Series.
  • 2022 was bad.
  • Democracy died at least three times.
JANUARY
  • The national debt, for the first time, crept above $30 billion, which is more that the entire U.S. economy is worth.  Fortunately, there is nothing to worry about.
  • Makes fun of finding the champions of the "professional" college football season.  He lists all the names as that bowl game, but the truth is that the game has no sponsors, and is called the College Football Playoff National Championship.   This coming year, on January 9 at the SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.  Alabama won't participate this year for sure.
FEBRUARY
  • Ottawa had massive truck protests.  Big deal, this is every day in New York City,
  • Ukraine is a foreign nation that, through poor planning, is located right next to Russia. This is unfortunate because Russian President Vladimir Putin, a man who relaxes by putting kittens into a food processor, has long wanted to establish closer ties with Ukraine, in the same sense that a grizzly bear wants to establish closer ties with a salmon.  On February 24, Russia invaded.  Most of the world rallies around the underdog Ukrainians and their charismatic president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a former comedian and actor who is basically the opposite of Putin. (Although to be fair, if Putin did comedy, he would kill.)  And, incidentally, you can spell Volodymyr's name with one or two y letters.
  • On the medical front, many states and municipalities drop their mask mandates as elected officials become aware of new scientific data showing that there is a strong statistical correlation between enforcing mask mandates and not getting re-elected.
MARCH
  • Will Smith slaps Chris Rock during the Oscars and is arrested for assault No, that’s what would happen to a noncelebrity such as yourself. Will Smith, on the other hand, sits back down and shortly thereafter receives an Oscar and a standing ovation.
  • In economic news, inflation continues to strain the economy despite intensive efforts by the Biden administration to explain that it is caused by Vladimir Putin, corporate greed, COVID, supply-chain issues, global climate change, the filibuster rule, the murder hornets and various other factors totally unrelated to any policies of the Biden administration. 
  • In entertainment news, the venerable Rolling Stones announce that they will hit the road this summer for their “Drool on the Microphone” tour. For the record, there were 14 concerts, all in Europe.  Can you believe they began in 1962?  I just graduated from college.
  • Major League Baseball lockout ends as owners and players approve a collective bargaining agreement, with some rules changes intended to make their product more attractive to modern fans, including starting games in the seventh inning, referring to runs as “touchdowns,” and at some random point in every game releasing a large venomous snake in the infield.
APRIL
  • Elon Musk says he wants to buy Twitter for $44 billion.  Meanwhile, for a few exciting hours, a trending topic on political Twitter, which we swear we are not making up, is “testicle tanning.” Don’t even ask.
  • Florida’s combative Gov. Ron DeSantis, always looking for new things to combat, takes on an insidious threat to Florida’s families and the American way of life: Disney.
MAY
  • Americans learn that there is a new medical danger for them to be nervous about: “monkeypox,” which gets its name from the fact that it is the disease that killed Tarzan. For the record, perhaps 20 Americans died from Monkeypox this year.
  • The war in Ukraine continues but receives less and less coverage in the United States as Americans turn their attention to the historic Johnny Depp vs. Amber Heard defamation trial.
  • The nation is shocked when an 18-year-old with a disturbing social-media history uses a semiautomatic rifle he obtained legally to commit a horrific mass murder. Ten days later, the nation is again shocked when another 18-year-old with a disturbing social-media history uses a semiautomatic rifle he obtained legally to commit a horrific mass murder.
JUNE
  • Johnny Depp wins his historic defamation lawsuit, with the jury ordering Amber Heard to repay the 783 billion person-hours the American public wasted watching the trial. The verdict unleashes a wave of thoughtful media think pieces the likes of which the nation has not seen since Will Smith slapped Chris Rock.
  • The House Select Committee To Investigate The Living Hell Out Of January 6 hears testimony, much of it from former members of the Trump administration, that leaves objective observers with only two possible interpretations of Donald Trump’s actions on that day:

    One: Trump is a pathological narcissist who, in his delusional effort to cling to power, ignored the sane adults on his staff and listened instead to Rudy Giuliani — which is like getting legal counsel from a Magic 8 Ball — and in the end showed an utter disregard for the sanctity of his office, the rule of law, the welfare of the nation and the physical safety of thousands of people.

    Two: There is no Two.

JULY
  • There was a horrendous mass-shooting on July 4 by a young man with an extremely disturbing social-media history who was still able to legally purchase a semiautomatic rifle:  As you can imagine, everyone is shocked.
  • Why President Joe Biden fist-bumped assassinator Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman:  White House press office thought he was another Mohammed bin Salman.
  • UK Prime Minister announced his retirement:  So he can spend more time on his hair.
  • Elon Musk announced he no longer wants to purchase Twitter and will instead use the $44 billion to buy two Springsteen tickets.
  • The House January 6 Committee announces plans for January 6: the Musical.
AUGUST
  • FBI agents search Mar-a-Lago and find that Trump misappropriated packets of White House ketchup.
  • Congress passes the Inflation Reduction Act because it says so in the title.
  • President Biden announces a program to forgive college student loans, plus, for those who failed chemistry, a bump up to a B plus.
  • Nancy Pelosi swims across the Taiwan Strait and single-handedly destroys a Chinese naval base...or at least something close to that for China to almost start World War III.  God only knows what would have happened had we instead sent, say, Cher.
  • California, always in the forefront, decrees that by the year 2035 it will be illegal for any vehicle on the state's highways to have wheels.
SEPTEMBER
  • White House blasts Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (after he sent two charter planes with immigrants to Martha's Vineyard) for undermining the administration's program for dealing with the humanitarian crisis at the border, which is to pretend that there is no humanitarian crisis at the border.
  • Queen Elizabeth II passes away, who reigned over the demise of the Great Britain global empire, now down to a tourist destination roughly the size of a pickle ball court.
  • NASA sends a $300 million spacecraft into an asteroid 7 million miles away, nudging it into a collision course  with Planet Earth, and immediately made a semi-urgent request for another $300 million.
OCTOBER
  • Elon Musk decided to buy Twitter after all because the best seats he could get to a Springsteen concert for $44 billion was way up in the balcony.
  • Chinese President Xi Jinping wins an unprecedented third term to the Communist Party Congress, for after considering all their options, elect to not die.
NOVEMBER
  • On November 5 the Red Wave turns out to be a pink squirt.  Donald Trump blamed Ron DeSantis.
  • Cryptocurrency giant FTX implodes, underscoring the wisdom of not trusting your money to a company with a meaningless name and an incomprehensible business model, headed by the fourth runner-up in a John Belushi lookalike contest.
  • The World Cup gets under way in Qatar with no soccer tradition, except for one:  pay off very large bribes.
  • Ticketmaster screws up Taylor Swift's concert tour by selling all tickets to Bruce Springsteen.
DECEMBER
  • NASA sent Artemis 1 on a 25.5 day journey past the Moon, which forgot to board the crew, so had to return.
  • The new Congress will spend the next two years probing the other like some kind of deranged proctologist.
  • Happy New (GLUB).
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Friday, December 30, 2022

2022 WAS A GOOD YEAR...for me.

This was a good year.  Avoided COVID.  Am at the best Body Mass Index in at least the past quarter century.  I've never been, as such, fat.  Well, maybe when I was around 1 year old.  But to the present.

  • I saw 146.8 pounds on the scale a couple days ago.  My BMI is thus 23.0, just above average in the optimal green category.
  • My weight before the pandemic was 165, or a BMI of 25.8, in the overweight category.
  • Through a strict vegetable and little solid carbohydrate diet, with few snacks and almost no dessert, my weight dropped to 154, a BMI of 24.1, which placed me just in the optimal category.
  • I just returned from a five-week trip, including a 21-day Regent Seven Seas Explorer cruise, and saw 155.4 pounds, a BMI of 24.3, still barely in the optimal category.  But the amazing thing is that I thought I had gained at least 6 pounds, for I ate and drank a lot.  Too much.
  • The solution, I determined, was a lot of sleep.
True, we remain in COVID Pandemic status.  However, the bivalent booster provides confidence that if I get infected, the symptoms should be mild.  A summary:
  • The USA is very close to reaching 100 million cases, with 1.1 million deaths.  The mortality rate is thus 1.1%.  
    • This has dropped to around 0.6%, but is still much higher than the seasonal flu, which is about 0.01%.
    • South Korea is now down to 0.1%, which is ten times higher than the flu.
  • The world has had 663.3 million cases and 6.7 million deaths, once at close to 1% mortality, but now at 0.4%.
  • China started this all just around 3 years ago, kept infections low through stringent rules, but recently opened up, resulting in an exponential jump in new cases and new deaths.  How the country and world react to this blow will determine the future of this pandemic.  2023 will be severely challenged.
What were the top ten events in 2022?  Depends on who you ask.
  • In addition to the continued pandemic, Russia invading the Ukraine ranks up there at the top.  Most early on predicted a quick finish, but continued resistance, led by TIME Person of the Year Volodymyr Zelensky, has been a surprise.  There is always that lurking fear that everything could escalate to nuclear warfare, placing this WAR as the most significant event this year.
  • No question that Western aid has helped. How much?  Europe has agreed to provide $55 billion, with the U.S. at $51 billion.  Putin has for 2023 pledged $155 billion for his war in Ukraine.
  • There was some worldwide inflation and crises in Iran, Pakistan and South/Latin America, but nothing earth-shaking.
  • The UK had some issues at the top and in the USA the diminution of Donald Trump was nice.  The House did release his taxes for 2015-2020 today.
  • Some say global warming is finally beginning to show, but there were only a few rather minor natural disasters this year.  Floods and droughts hit here and there, with the worst being floods which killed 1739 in Pakistan.  An earthquake killed 1,036 in Afghanistan. Some wildfires.
  • The U.S. had 15 weather disasters, where perhaps 342 died, maybe 400 after this latest winter storm is included.  Hurricane Ian caused at least $20 billion in damages, and maybe up to $100 billion, but with "only" 157 fatalities.
  • World leaders reached a new climate change agreement, but with little true commitment and a lack of enforcement.  What can you expect for a gathering held in Egypt?  The next attempt will be made next year in Abu Dhabi.

A pleasant surprise was the eye candy provided by the James Webb Space Telescope.  Here is an article that listed 344 ways this project would fail after launch.  Employing 20,000 over two decades, and costing far more than originally stated (first funding was for a billion, and the total cost exceeded $10 billion), this was another successful NASA effort.  Read my Wednesday posting of another.  


The bottom photo shows more than 250 galaxies.  Our Milky Galaxy is only medium-sized, and we have around 200 billion stars.  We are old, forming only 0.1 billion after the Big Bang of 13.7 billion years ago.  If you shine a light from one end, it would take 120,000 years to get to the other side.  IC 1101 is a galaxy that has over 100 trillion stars.  Thus, want to take a guess at how many stars are in that third photo?

On the sports front, Argentina beat France for the World Cup.  Ten times more watched this game than any Super Bowl match.  

We long ago forgot, but there was a Winter Olympics this year in Beijing.  Norway won with 37 medals.  Biggest star?  Eileen Gu.  Her mother is from China, so she competed for that country.  However, she was born in San Francisco, and here is a photo of her first day at Stanford, with mother and grandmother.


Here is one list of the ten top songs of 2022.  Don't recognize any.  #1 was Titi Me Pregunto by Bad Bunny.  To quote TIME:

“Titi Me Pregunto” is much more than its sheer sonic brilliance. While the first two verses show Bad Bunny playing the carefree, chauvinist playboy, he eventually confesses that it’s all a shield for his emotional fragility. “I’d like to fall in love but I can’t… I don’t even trust myself,” he sings despondently. “I don’t want to be like that anymore.” Just another day in the office for the biggest pop star in the world.


Titi Me Pregunto means my auntie asked me and brags about all the women Bad Bunny has.  He is a Puerto Rican rapper, so the song is in Spanish.


Topping the Billboard Hot 100 in 2022 was English singer Harry Styles' As It Was, which spent 15 weeks at #1, breaking the length record of Candle in the Wind (Elton John, 1997), I Will Always Love You (Whitney Houston, 1992) and We Belong Together (Mariah Carey, 2005) . Incidentally, #1 the first week of January 2022 and final three weeks of December was Carey's 1994 All I Want for Christmas is You.


From Box Office Mojo, Top Gun: Maverick (Rotten Tomatoes: 96/99) earned $1.5 billion worldwide this year.  #2 was the only recently released Avatar: The Way of Water (RT: 78/92), at $1.1 billion and #3 was Jurassic World: Dominion (RT: 29/77) at $1 billion.  On just one plane flight, from Honolulu to Seoul, I last month saw #1, #3 and #15, Elvis ($286 million, RT: 77/94).  Below, Tom Cruise, in  1986 and 2022.  He has been divorced three times:  Mimi Roger in 1990, Nicole Kidman 2000 and Katie Holmes 2012.  Is currently seeing no one.

Thursday, December 29, 2022

KEEPING DONALD TRUMP RELEVANT

 From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

2020
June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82
July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572
Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130
Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82
Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85
Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118
Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465
2021
Jan     14       4142    15512       1151        189     712
Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398
Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194
April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37
May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 
June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95
 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411
Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 
Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124
Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59
Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23
Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28
2022
Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140
Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175
Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 
Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12
May    5          225      2404         151            ?        64
June    2         216      1413         130          10        31
July    6          316      1627         335           35       12 
Aug    4          311       2138         258          70         ?
Sep    1          272       1732         174            ?         ?
Oct     6          281       1305         119            9         ?
Nov    3          167         980           16            ?         ?
        25            88         985           71             3        ?  
Dec    3          149       1029         131            3         ?
          8          194       1320         104             6       86
        15          147       1295         124             4         ?
        22          289       1637         165             9         ?
        28          296       1768         337             2         ?

Summary:
  • Japan led the world in new deaths with 415.  #2 Brazil 337 and #3 U.S. 296.
  • Japan also was #1 in new cases with 216,219, #2 S. Korea 87,517, #3 Germany 40,810, #4 Brazil 37,104 and #5 USA 36,881.
  • New cases/million population.
    • #1 Niue 9864.
    • #2 Hong Kong 2,744
    • #3 Japan 1,722
    • #4 S. Korea 1705
    • #6 Taiwan 1,179
    • #11 Germany 487
    • #13 France 398
    • #15 Singapore 260
    • #25 USA 110
    • #49 China 4

I would bet a lot that the hotspot today is not Japan, but China.  The U.S. yesterday announced that all travelers from China from January 5 will need to test negative, regardless of nationality and vaccination status. 


Under the new U.S. rules, travelers to the U.S. from China, Hong Kong and Macau, will be required to take a COVID-19 test no more than two days before travel and provide a negative test before boarding their flight. The testing applies to anyone 2 years and older, including U.S. citizens.


Similar restrictions no doubt will be set by the rest of the world.  China has just not reported the truth from the beginning, and this misinformation miasma is worse today.  In fact, they have essentially stopped publishing daily COVID-19 data.

  • For example, in eastern Zhejiang province alone, the provincial government said it was experiencing about a million new daily cases.  Located just south of Shanghai, this province has less than 2% of the population of China.  Now, this does not mean that China necessarily has 20 million cases/day, but certainly, it must lead the world by a wide margin.  
  • Maybe more meaningful is a leaked estimate by top Chinese officials to Bloomberg and Financial Times that as many as 250 million were infected in the first 20 days of December.  Doing the calculations, this would mean that the entire country must have around 12.5 million new cases/day.  So the new cases/day/million population rate of China would be around 9,000.  Remember that the world's worst today is Japan with slightly more than 200,000 cases/day, which translates to a new case/million rate of 1,722.  China would then be #2 to Niue (island off New Zealand), with 9864 new cases/million.
  • So how many deaths is China experiencing?  A rough estimate is that the world yesterday showed a mortality rate of 0.3% with 1768 total deaths.  The result  for China would then would be 37,500 deaths/day, or 21 times more than the entire world!
  • Hot off the press:  50% of passengers from China on two flights to Milan TESTED POSITIVE!!!.  WOW, WE CAN'T WAIT UNTIL JANUARY 5.  TRAVEL RULES MUST BE INITIATED NOW!!!
  • Something can't be right about all the above, but if true for China today, January will only be worse.

One more bit of covid news.  

  • In April, Shanghai had a COVID-19 asymptomatic rate of 70%, which was double the expectation as has been estimated by our CDC.  
  • Way back in 2020, Wuhan found that 82.1% were asymptomatic.  Yet other studies in those days showed only a 4.52% asymptomaticity in in nursing homes.  And only 0.75% of healthcare workers were asymptomatic.  In other words, asymptomaticity ranged from 0.75% to 82.1%, which makes no sense.
  • In the Beta and Delta outbreaks in South Africa, the asymptomatic rate was 2.6%.  During Omicron, the asymptomatic rate increased to 16%.
  • The Omicron wave in China showed China's asymptomatic rate at 70% (matches Shanghai data), but that 95% of cases either had no or very mild symptoms.
  • The bottom line thus remains somewhat blurred.  Is asymptomaticity close to 90% or 1%?  I have not seen any kind of worldwide consensus.

Changing topics to my most despised subject (this is also a pun), how can Democrats keep Donald Trump relevant until July of 2024?  That would be the highest order priority to win the presidency on 5November2024, hold the Senate and win back the House.

Amazingly enough:


Trump remains the most potent force in GOP politics, but polls show that his support among Republicans is beginning to soften. The share of Republicans who see Trump favorably dropped to 64% in December, according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll, down from 75% two months earlier. More Republicans are open to other candidates as well. The same poll found that 61% of Republicans prefer a GOP candidate other than Trump who would pursue the policies from the Trump Administration. Thirty-one percent of Republicans want Trump to run in 2024, the poll found.


The task of insuring for the relevance of Trump for almost two years, however, will be difficult.  For one, Georgia, a Republican state, will be tasked by Republican insiders to nail him as soon as possible to avoid a Republican Convention showdown, scheduled from July 15-18, 2024 at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

There are other inconveniences, such as the New York effort to further penalize Trump's corporative activities.  But no political problem here, for he will not go to jail.  By the way, do you realize that there are 4,095 lawsuits on file against The Donald?  I guess that comparison to the right says something about Republican presidents.

About his taxes, the House Ways and Means Committee will release on Friday Trump's tax returns of 2015-2020.  Most likely there will not be too many legal problems for him.  However, we will see that he might just not be as rich as he says he is.  The fact that he tried to hide all this will at least be an embarrassment.  And that is his best case outcome.

Earlier this week, the Georgia special grand jury wrapped up its probe of Trump and his allies to steal the state election.  The Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis is a Democrat.  Changes are that she will not proceed with any particular speed to convict Trump.  No official criminal charges yet  But they have him on tape.

In a Jan. 2, 2021, phone call between Trump and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, the president suggested that the state's top elections official, a fellow Republican, could "find" the votes needed to overturn his narrow loss in the state to Democrat Joe Biden.  Trump told Raffensperger he needed 11,780 votes, one more than Biden won. That was a mistake, Cunningham said, because the specific and transactional nature of that comment makes it hard to say he was just generally urging Raffensperger to look into alleged fraud.


The Department of Justice, no matter who says what, is today a Democrat weapon to try Trump.  Attorney General Merrick Garland reports to President Joe Biden.  They have on file now the 18-month House investigation, which recommends prosecuting Donald Trump.

The committee’s final report made 17 findings about the Capitol attack on Jan. 6, 2021, including that Trump plotted to overturn the 2020 results despite knowing he’d lost, sent an angry and armed mob to the Capitol and failed to respond to the violence as it unfolded on television.


They, too, will take their time, for they can wait until August of 2024 to prove anything, and will have three months of active effort until the November 5, 2024 presidential election.  So far:

  • Around 900 defendants have been arrested, from every state.
  • 283  were charged for higher crimes, and 99 for lower ones.
  • 470 pleaded guilty.
  • 335 were adjudicated and received sentences, with 185 going to jail.
  • They might proceed as they have for convicting the 6January2020 culprits.  Start low and work up to Donald Trump.  Perhaps John Eastman, said to be the architect of the effort, might get the initial attention.  The House Special Committee reported:
At the heart of the committee’s story is evidence that Trump began planning to overturn the election months before voters went to the polls. Trump would follow the advice of allies like Rudy Giuliani, Steve Bannon and Roger Stone to declare victory on election night, despite signs that Biden was leading or likely to take the lead in several key swing states.


And, of course, what about the Mar-a-Lago classified documents?  The more they look, the more they find.  This trial can proceed, for the end result will not crush Trump, merely cause some deserved pain.

Ironic that the solution to preserving democracy might well be to back off on the the primary cause, former president Donald Trump.  There seems to be a higher confidence today that our form of government seems secure enough, that we can wait to later convict him.  He can still actually win the Republican nomination in July of 2024, but, surely, that will only further insure for Democrat-dominance on 5November2024.  Is it worth that gamble?

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