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Monday, May 31, 2021

THE SHIFT FROM A NUCLEAR WINTER TO THE VENUS SYNDROME

Memorial Day is a federal holiday that honors and mourns American military personnel who died while performing their duties in service to the United States Armed Forces.


The USA has been in 79 wars since 1776.   Click on that to see the details, but in every one of them, military life was lost.  Total casualties (deaths and wounded) of the major ones:

  • American Revolutionary     50,000
  • 1812                                    20,000
  • Mexican-American              17,435
  • Civil                                1,129,418
  • WWI                                  320,518
  • WWII                              1,076,245
  • Korean                               128,650
  • Vietnam                             211,454
  • Afghanistan                        22,266
  • Iraq                                      36,710

It is estimated that approximately 2.4% of military combat deaths in Afghanistan and Iraq were female. For all of the 79 wars, 1,354,664 were killed and 1,498,240 wounded.  As a percent of deaths relative to the national population, the Civil War was the worst with 2% killed, the Revolutionary War at 1%, World War II  0.3% and World War I 0.1%.  Thus, the price of liberty and freedom was terminally paid for by fewer than 1% of our citizens.  We honor them on Memorial Day.  

World War II started 80 years ago and the more recent  terrorist attack on September 11, 2001 was 20 years ago.  Thankfully, it's been 30 years since the end of the Cold War with the Soviet Union.  How many would have died in an all-out nuclear war?  Here is one estimate.  The potential for human extinction has to some degree been diminished with disarmament.  Yet, there remain 13,000 nuclear weapons, said to be sufficient to cause this hypothetical nuclear winter.

What has long troubled me are the prospects of future biological warfare.  Half a century ago there was the fictional Andromeda Strain of Michael Chrichton.  This came from space and was neither a virus or bacterium.  It was hexagonal.  He graduated with a medical degree from Harvard in 1969, and published that book the same year.  Never practiced medicine, and wrote Jurassic Park in 1990.

More recently, something more than a mere conspiracy theory has pointed to COVID-19 possibly being created in the Wuhan Institute of Virology as a bioweapon.  One would think that a country fixated on this means to control the world would first have developed a vaccine to protect themselves.  Apparently the "escape" of this virus was done in error, for China did not yet have any kind of certain cure.  

The country has denied any kind of organized effort, but they don't exactly willingly share this kind of information.  Yet, they clamped down on this outbreak so severely that you wonder if there indeed was some truth to these rumors.

The USA has not exactly been pious about this option, for 80 years ago at the time of Pearl Harbor, Secretary of War (yes, that was what it was called then--War, not Defense) Henry Stimson started our biological warfare program.  This became the U.S. Army Biological Warfare Laboratories at Fort Detrick in Maryland, located 51 miles from Washington, D.C.  Supposedly, President Richard Nixon dismantled this effort in 1969 and all BW agents were destroyed in May of 1972.  However, we retain a so-called "defensive" capability.

There is no confirmed certainty about what Russia is doing, although the Soviet Union had an active program and supplied products during the Vietnam War causing Yellow Rain.  This was a biological toxin derived from fungi.  Russia has indicated it is following the Geneva Protocol and Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention of 1992.  Surely you believe everything Putin says.


So if nuclear and bio warfare dangers are now in a semblance of control, one would think that Humanity is heading  in the right direction towards World Peace.  Not so, for we are now faced with a totally different kind of threat.  Walt Kelly of Pogo created an anti-pollution Earth Day poster in 1970, and used it again in his comic strip for Earth Day 1971.  While pollution and environmental concerns were the targets then, half a century later it is Global Warming.  And yes, we are the problem.

The Doomsday Clock remains at 100 seconds to midnight.  Global climate warming is now the growing concern.  Nuclear warfare was so frightening that a stalemate resulted.  Climate change is so relatively incremental that nothing much is truly occurring to engender remediation.

Long ago I thought that a two-by-four club was needed to knock some sense into decision-makers.  So I proposed The Venus Syndrome to evoke concern, for society acts only when threatened.  An attack by Martian aliens would trigger sudden world-wide cooperation.  If there were serious prospects for Planet Earth becoming Planet Venus, maybe then serious steps would be taken.  After all, the atmosphere is mostly carbon dioxide, and the temperature is at 900 F on Venus.

Sure I exaggerated, but no one took me seriously.  However, I got worried, not for that reason, but if those methane clathrates escape from ocean deposits and the tundra, what then would be the solution?  I could not conjure up any happy ending to my developing book.  Then, more recently, other people began to also get concerned, like James Hanson.  Earlier this month a United Nations report said cutting the super-potent greenhouse gas methane quickly and dramatically is the best hope to slow and limit the worst of global warming.  Inger Anderson, Director of the UN Environment Programme:

The report said the methane reduction would be relatively inexpensive and could be achieved — by plugging leaks in pipelines, stopping venting of natural gas during energy drilling, capturing gas from landfills and reducing methane from belching livestock and other agricultural sources, which is the biggest challenge.

Sure, do that, but the report missed the whole point of my concern.  What do you then do about the natural emissions from the sea and Arctic tundra?  With the current warming, are we reaching this crucial tipping point?

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Sunday, May 30, 2021

I'M IN THE 14TH YEAR OF THIS BLOG

Eleven years ago I posted on MEMORIAL DAY AND WARS.  In 2012, WHY MEMORIAL DAY?  Five years ago the title was WHAT IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MEMORIAL DAY AND VETERANS DAY?  This is the day before, but I never let it go by.  Tonight, by the way, PBS has its annual Memorial Day Concert on the Mall, featuring  Colin Powell, Gladys Knight, the Four Tops and Steve Buscemi, of all the people.  I was working in the U.S. Senate when the first mall concert was held.  This was on 4 July 1980 for the initial Capitol Fourth.


Thinking about 42 years ago made me nostalgic.  I'm now into the 14th year of this blog.  This period is equivalent to going from kindergarten through high school and heading off to college.  But this second time was every day.  Back then there were weekends, holidays and summer vacation.  In fact, early in the 14th year, which would be June of 1958, I left Hawaii for the very first time.  I boarded a brand new PanAm 707 for Los Angeles.

My brother picked me up at LAX, and in the short period at the airport I could hardly breath, and my eyes watered.  The Los Angeles smog was something I did not expect.  I wondered how badly this affected your lungs.  To the left  and below are photos taken that year

Oxnard in 1958 had a population of 40,000, and had mostly lemon orchards, although this was also the lima bean capital of the world.  The size has mushroomed to more than 200,000 because Los Angeles people consider Oxnard, 60 miles away, to be a good escape.  A couple of years ago I read that the average new single-family home here, at just under $900,000, was higher than Honolulu.  In June it is cold in Oxnard, for the ocean current dominates.  It could be 115 F just 20 miles away in Santa Paula.  Oxnard would stay in the 60's.

My brother worked at the Naval Civil Engineering Laboratory, and got me a summer job there.  He drove me to Stanford University in September, and as we approached the campus, I saw a sign that said:  Leland Stanford Jr. University.  My first thought was, I didn't realize Stanford was a junior college.  Here I am at Wilbur Hall, when it had just opened that year for the first full class of freshmen.

Someone sent me Ronald Reagan's Memorial day speech of more than a third of a century ago.  He mentioned Private Martin Treptow's pledge during World War I:

She also sent me what you don't see on Memorial Day, as sung by Jackie Evancho.  A memorable moment worth your while.


As today is Sunday, I'll close with Calvin and Hobbes:

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Saturday, May 29, 2021

THE DECLINE OF DEMOCRACY?

I don't know who James Templer (journalist and author) is, but he published a guest commentary in The Daily News of Galveston County, saying what has been on my mind since the evil days of President Donald Trump, which continues.  I should insert here his entire presentation, but will only use two paragraphs (you should read the rest):

Lurking beneath the surface of American democracy ever since its inception have been potentially disastrous eruptions from anti-democratic factions, militia, underground armies, insurrectionists and domestic terrorists. Just as plate tectonics can set off a volcano, political greed and chicanery can set off an insurrection.

Who are these angry, anti-government, anti-authority, hate-filled, mostly white Caucasian Americans? Why are they so full of fear, paranoia, hatred and resentment? Perhaps it’s because there has always been inequality, government inefficiency and corruption and people get fed up with it.

The danger is that the future of our Democracy remains under threat, so here is one more quote:

And on that same infamous day, 139 Republican representatives and eight Republican senators refused to verify the Electoral College votes for Joe Biden. Since Jan. 6, Republican politicians and officials across the country have relentlessly spread the Big Lie. For example, almost four months after the U.S. Congress verified that Biden won the presidency fair and square, Arizona Republican senators have hired a pro-Trump firm to conduct another needless recount of the presidential votes, this one in Maricopa County, which overwhelmingly voted for Biden.  Wisconsin Republican lawmakers are following in goose step with another recount by the same dubious firm that suggested that other battleground states will follow.

All the above you know.  What you might not be familiar with is something even more frightening happening in American Samoa, a territory of the USA.  The following came yesterday from The Diplomat:

  • It might seem cliché or exaggerated to continue to blame former U.S. President Donald Trump for all of the world’s ills, especially after he left office. Yet his — and his party’s — behavior leading up to and following last November’s presidential election are still rippling out beyond U.S. shores. Although Trump and the Republican Party were unsuccessful in their attempts to subvert American democracy, they did send a signal to the rest of the world that a refusal to accept results and hand over power in an orderly and graceful manner was a legitimate form of political action in democratic countries.
  • Here is what happened in America Samoa, and I seriously simplify:
    • For the past 23 years Auilaepa Sailele Malielegaoi (right) has been Prime Minister, with his Human Rights Protection Party (HRPR) in total control of the politics.
  • So a splinter group formed the FAST (too complicated to explain acronym) Party, led by Fiame Naomi Mataafa, who on April 9 was elected as the new prime minister.
  • But HRPP changed the Parliament membership to add someone from their party, causing both sides to have 26 seats.
  • Then on 19 May 2021 the Supreme Court of Samoa ruled against this additional seat, giving back the slim majority to FAST.
  • However, HPPR appealed, but the go ahead was nevertheless okayed by the Supreme Court on May 24 to reconvene the Parliament to formally anoint Mataafa as Prime Minister.
  • Ah, but the building of the Parliament was locked, forcing FAST to go through the ceremony in an outside tent.
  • On May 25 HRPP launched a private prosecution case agains Mataafa for bribery, which will not be heard until September. 
  • SO WHO IS RUNNING AMERICAN SAMOA?  GOOD QUESTION.  Where is Biden on this?  Amazingly enough, not a peep.

While Belarus was once part of the Soviet Union, and incumbent Alexander Lukashensko is blessed by Vladimir Putin, and has won the last six elections as president since 1994, in August of last year, Sviatlana Tsikhamouskaya using the slogan, Stop the Cockroach, claimed victory with at least 60% of the votes.  Then Lukashensko said he got 80% of ballots and was still president.  Of course, he controls the TV stations.  Further, Lukashensko arrested leaders of the opposition party, except ST was able to escape and is now in exile.  

The European Union, for one, imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials.  The country went into a round of protests.  Then today, the White House announced their sanctions, stimulated by the forced landing of a Ryanair commercial flight, leading to the removal and arrest of 26-year old opposition journalist Roman Protasevich.  This is now called the Slipper Revolution because that is the traditional means of controlling a cockroach.  But this does not qualify as any kind of decline of Democracy because Belarus has never really been one.

For the record, Democracy is declining (Green=Free, Gold=partly free, Blue=Not Free):

  • The 2021 edition of Freedom in the World, covering the events of 2020, marked the 15th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Of the 195 independent countries assessed by the report, 73 experienced aggregate score declines and just 28 made gains, the widest margin of its kind during the 15-year period. There are now 54 Not Free countries, accounting for 38 percent of the world’s population, the highest share since the decline began.
  • Dark countries are electoral Democracies.
  • With India’s downgrade from Free to Partly Free, less than 20 percent of the global population now lives in a Free country, the lowest level since 1995.
  • The United States, which remained Free, fell by three points in 2020, for a total decline of 11 points on the report’s 100-point scale over the last decade.
The most Democratic countries at 100 are Finland, Norway and Sweden.  United States?  83.  Others, and some are surprising:
  • Syria  1
  • Eritrea  2
  • South Sudan  2
  • North Korea  3
  • Saudi Arabia  7
  • China  9
  • Belarus 11
  • Venezuela  14
  • Russia 20
  • Singapore  48
  • Monoco  83
  • Romania  83 
  • USA  83
  • Mongolia  84
  • Argentina 84
  • Czech Republic  91
  • UK  93
  • Taiwan  94
  • Slovenia  95
  • Japan  96
  • Uruguay  98
  • New Zealand  99

The United States is not the sterling model of Democracy.

Can't end my posting on this Saturday on that note.  What about the duet of Luciano Pavarotti and Tom Jones singing Delilah?

If you want more, here are Pavarotti and Celine Dione.  This has always been one of my favorites, Andrea Bocelli and Sarah Brightman, in their 2007 Time to Say Goodbye. That duet single became Germany's all-time best selling single.  Known as Con te partiro, the song was first made popular by Bocelli in 1995.  You might not have seen that version, for he begins by playing a French Horn.

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Friday, May 28, 2021

NONUPLETS

On 4 May 2021, 25-year old Halima Cisse (below with her husband Adjudant Kader Arby) of Mali (country in red) went to Morocco (green), thirty weeks (40 is the typical length) into her pregnance to bear nine babies (five girls and four boys)--nonuplets.  They weighed in from 1.1 to 2.2 pounds.  Not much has been reported since then, except that they all survived and are fragile.  Similar events happened in Sydney, Australia in 1971 and Malaysia in 1999.  However, none survived for more than a few days. 

Remember Octomom?  Nadya Suleman, now 45, celebrated the 12th birthday of her octuplets earlier this year.  She actually already had six children, all by in vitro fertilization.  The first of the six came in 2001 when she was 25-years old and divorced.  The third child is severely autistic.

The father has not been named.  All six boys and two girls are doing well in Los Angeles today:

How does she support her 14 children?

Nadya lives paycheck-to-paycheck and works as a full-time counselor with patients who have drug and alcohol addictions. She also lives off of the residuals she receives from her adult films. She’s managed to make ends meet with the help of government assistance, she told The New York Times in 2018. She also still participates in “international photo shoots” for cash. Additionally, she is busy working on a book that she started in graduate school, she told the outlet.


In 2017, Nadya admitted she is the sole provider for her family. “Help? I don’t get any help,” she told Inside Edition. “I haven’t had any help in many, many years.”

Although Nadya has tried to keep her kids out of the spotlight, RadarOnline reported she is open to a reality TV show. She’s “ready to make a comeback,” a source told the outlet. Aside from her day job, her first priority is to her children.

A video of the children at the age of 10.  A clip from last year.

Among the notable multiple births in history are:

  • The Dione quintuplets of Canada, born on 29 April 1896, were the first to survive infancy, and were the only set of identical quintuplets to live into adulthood.  Here with their parents in 1947.
  • The Gosselin sextuplets, born on 10 May 2004 in Hershey, Pennsylvania to Jon and Kate Gosselin, who already had a set of twins, then three years old.  They had a reality television show titled Jon & Kate Plus 8.
  • The McGaughey septuplets born on 19 November 1997 in Des Moines, Iowa are the world's first surviving set of septuplets.
  • There have been eight set of octuplets, but Octomom's happen to be the only who survived.

In 2009 Scientific American reported on a Tunisian teacher in her 30's who successfully delivered 12 infants.  Alas, the health ministry of the country exposed this as a fraud.

Then there is Feodor Vassilyev (above), a Russian peasant who lived from 1707 to 1782, who gave birth 27 times, and had 16 twins, seven triplets and four quadruplets, mother of 69, with 65 of them surviving their infancy.  Her husband, Feodor Wassilief was something special.  69 children with her and another 18 children with a second wife.

Guinness lists:

  • The heaviest birth as 22 pounds. in Seville, Ohio on 19 January 1879.  Mother was Anna Bates (right) of Canada, who was 7 feet 11 inches tall, while the father was Martin Van Buren Bates, around 7 feet 10" tall.  Unfortunately, "Babe" lived only for 11 hours.
  • Heaviest 
    • Twins had a combined weight of 27 pounds 12 oz to Mary Ann Haskin of Fort Smith, Arkansas on 20 February 1924.
    • Triplets weighed 24 pounds to Mary McDermott of the UK on 18 November 1914.
    • Quadruplets weighed 22 lb 16 oz to Tina Saunders of the UK on 7 February 1989.
  • First test tube baby (in vitro fertilization) to Louise Brown of the UK on 25 July 1978 to Lesley  Brown.
  • Most premature to Brenda and James Gill of Canada on 10 May 1987, 128 days early, weighing 1 lb 6 oz.  Normal pregnancy is 280 days.  Baby James survived well.
  • Shortest baby was Nisa Juarez of the U.S., born on 20 July 2002, measuring 9.44 inches long and weighing 11.3 ounces.
  • Oldest person to give birth was almost 67 year old Maria del Carmen Bousada Lara (right) of Spain on 5 January 1940, who had twins.
Finally, the natural odds of septuplets (six) are one in 4 billion pregnancies.  As there are around 200 million pregnancies/year, this means there should be one every 20 years.  Most of these multi-births today are induced by some form of fertility treatment.

The chance of a natural octuplet birth is said to be around one in 21 trillion.  This actually happened in Mexico City in 1967.

There are 7.7 billion people today alive on Planet Earth.  It is estimated that 117 billion of us were born in all of history.  Don't know the odds of a natural nonuplet birth, but chances are with these tiny numbers, there has never been one of these ever, except for now, but only because of medical inducement, and the one from Halima Cisse is already the third.  More, and larger numbers, can be expected into the future as some seek fame.

Here is something to ponder over:  The odds of you being born were one in 400 trillion.  But then Ali Binazir did his calculation and placed the odds at 1 in 10 to the 2,685,000 powerThe fact that you are here is a miracle.
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