Wednesday, November 25, 2009

FURTHER MUSINGS ABOUT GLOBAL WARMING, SCIENCE AND RELIGION

Okay, zero for one on my predictions of November 23, as President Obama is, indeed, planning to show up in Copenhagen for the Climate Change Summit. Of course, what real choice did he really have, for he has to be in Stockholm on December 9 to pick up his Nobel Prize, and that gathering will go on from December 7 through the 18th. His word spinners will have him say he had to come because this is the meeting that will initiate the process for saving Planet Earth, and he will do everything in his power (which will not be much because there are too many Democrats from fossil fuel states, and Republicans...well, read my HuffPo on this subject) to remediate global climate warming.


The Large Hadron Collider (LHD) had a re-birth this past week. Hawaii was in the spotlight last year on the LHD, for Walter Wagner of Pepeekeo, a retired nuclear safety officer, with Luis Sancho, a Spanish writer, sued CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research) because they feared the prospects of black holes, strangelets and magnetic monopoles. Kind of reminds you of the Man from La Mancha, with his trusty sidekick, Sancho Panza. They were supported by University of Hawaii Hilo psychology professor Paul Dixon. Now, where is Sophia Loren? However, the lawsuit was summarily dismissed by Judge Helen Gillmor.


What is the LHD? It is only the most expensive scientific experiment ever, located 570 feet underground at the Swiss-French border, 17 miles in circumference, and built at a cost of $9 billion over 15 years. It is expected to prove or disprove the existence of the Higgs Boson, something to do with matter and the Standard Model. But since you won't understand the science, and I don't too, let's skip this part.


On 19September08, nine days after first flash, it went kaput, and took 14 months to repair. Yesterday, LHD experienced its first collision. Whew, Planet Earth survived. Judge Gillmor was right.

Grand Mosque, Mecca
REUTERS/Caren Firouz

Timed photo of the Hajj, which began today, and goes on until Sunday. This the annual pilgrimage that has been going on for 4000 years all Muslims make once in their life if they can afford it. The ritual is a lot more involved than merely walking counterclockwise seven times around the Kabah (cubed shaped building above). You must run between hills, pray, stand in vigil in the desert, drink from a sacred well, throw stones, pray, shave your head and perform an animal sacrifice (or you can have someone do this for you). Three million or so will so do this year. A website says, "Be Peaceful, Orderly and Kind. No Crushing!" Huh? In 2006, 600 were killed through people falling over each other. That same year, 362 Hajjis (these pilgrims) also died during the stoning process.


If you still wish this experience, the dates next year are from November 14-18. Oh, if you're not a Muslim, don't even try, for, first, you need a visa with a purpose for visiting Saudi Arabia, then, there are check points. You won't be arrested, but deported. On the other hand, if only Mecca is your goal, find a way to get into Saudi Arabia during the non-Ramadan, non-Hajj period, have a local dress you and suggest how to walk, don't talk and be as unobstrusive as possible.

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The Dow Jones Industrials hit a high for the year, up 31 to 10,464. The peak was 14, 164 on October 9 of 2007. World markets were mostly up. Gold surged to another all-time pinnacle, +$23/toz to $1192, while crude oil is now just under $78/barrel.

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Wow, Nida is now a SUPER TYPHOON at 185 MPH.


Nida will move sufficiently west of Guam and appears still headed for Japan. However, what an incredible goof, as NASA today showed the following satellite shot, and superimposed the Philippines...
Super Typhoon Nida

...and I quote:

The MODIS instrument onboard NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this true-color image of Super Typhoon Nida churning through the Philippine Islands. Packing winds of 100 mph and gusts of up to 122 mph, the typhoon caused floods and landslides in the Bicol region of the main island of Luzon. Nida has been responsible for at least six deaths in the Philippines and has displaced thousands as it skirted the eastern part of the country before moving towards southern Japan.


The country certainly doesn't deserve any more of this. There have been too many super typhoons hammering the Philippines, and several were named Nina, but Nida?

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Tuesday, November 24, 2009

CHAPTER 4: SEEKING THE LIGHT—SETI (Part 2)

The following continues the serialization of Chapter 4 on the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:


SETI in the 70’s


In 1971, Bernard Oliver of Hewlett-Packard and John Billingham of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Ames Research Center (ARC) conducted a summer workshop, and the group picked 1.42 GHz, the spectral line caused by interstellar hydrogen, and 1.66 GHz, caused by hydroxyl ions, called the “Water Hole,” as the ideal portion of space to conduct the search. For one, water symbolized life, and two, that band was relatively quiet. There is now that transitional link, for Book 1 featured a chapter reporting on hydrogen. Maybe there is something about hydrogen that goes beyond mere future sustainable utility.


In 1972, Oliver and Billingham authored a NASA study proposing an array of one thousand 100-meter telescopic dishes to pick up television and radio signals from neighboring stars. Project Cyclops was projected to cost $10 billion (which is $50 billion in 2009 dollars), but was never seriously considered. At this point in history, the U.S. Congress was not aware, or cared, that NASA was doing SETI work.


As an assistant professor of engineering, I then teamed with the resident futurist at the University of Hawaii, James Dator, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, on “Earth 2020: Visions for Our Children’s Children,” where in the summer of ‘74 we brought to Hawaii noted lecturers of national stature in topics related to Planet Earth, the environment and space, and weekly filled a two thousand seat auditorium. We also conducted a workshop for forty or so secondary and university faculty.


Having been thusly enlightened with this course, many of them went on to become principals, a university president, a provost, and elected public officials. Professor Dator later gained fame as Secretary General, then President, of the World Futures Study Federation. Identical summer workshops were held at San Jose State University and San Diego State University, with the advanced planning final report prepared by faculty from all three workshops. There was also a lot of cross-fertilization with the leaders of Project Cyclops. The information and curricula we generated became the standard instructional tools for a large number of teachers in Hawaii and California in the growing field of environmental consciousness. Remember, this was more than a third of a century ago.


Having thus been exposed to the SETI field, in 1976 I joined 19 other university faculty members from across the nation at NASA's Ames Research Center in Mountain View, California, on Project Orion, to detect an extrasolar planet (or exoplanet, used interchangeably), that is, a planet revolving around another star, spearheaded, of course, by Oliver and Billingham. The first question asked of Cornell Professor Frank Drake was: “Extraterrestrial intelligence? How do you know there are even other planets outside our solar system?” So the faculty group was tasked to design a system to accomplish this feat. Why me? Well, I had an idea on how to do this, plus I long harbored visions that the cure for cancer and the solution to world peace might be beaming unto Planet Earth from advanced civilizations.


Originally, in the mid 1800’s, stars were classified by hotness (Class I for white and blue, down to Class IV for red and Class V). Early in the 1900’s, the Harvard classification was adopted, ranking stars by luminosity—O, B, A, F, G, K, and M—Oh Be A Fine Girl, Kiss Me.


F and G type suns seem best suited for planets. Our Sun is in the latter category, and the guess is that there is a 7% chance for a solar system, while the former is 1.3 to 1.5 solar masses, with a 10% chance of planets. Planets do not form in binary star systems, and have a higher probability of creation in galactic arms where heavy elements are located. There is a 20-30% chance towards the external portion of a galaxy, where we are located.


How does a planet form? Well, more and more, astronomers are seeing disks surrounding stars. Very simply, the dust agglomerates into planets. Thus, first find a planet, any planet. Then, find planets where life is possible. These sites should be:


o older than 3 billion years;

o with a star smaller than 1.5 times our Sun mass;

o having a stable location between galaxy spiral arms; and

o in a solar system which is singular, that is, without a binary star.


While most of the team went on to design an interferometric system to indirectly do the job, a few of us were allowed to pursue other directions. Indirect means to measure something else. That is, as you can’t see that extrasolar planet, the starlight being so intense relative to the reflection from the planet, measure the orbit wobble of the star, with the pattern mathematically being fitted for possible planets. Direct means somehow block out the starlight and see that extrasolar planet, or, better yet, actually measure and track something, anything, from the planet itself. I was the only one to take this latter option, for I like to see what I’m doing, and the optical spectrum was my choice.


That same previously mentioned (in Chapter 2) Charles Townes, who had won the Nobel Prize for the laser, and who will later be mentioned in Chapter 10 for being awarded the 2005 Templeton Prize (generally given to a noted scientist who has religious predilections), happened to just arrive at the University of California Berkeley from the Massachusetts Institute Technology in 1976, and had published a paper speculating that planetary atmospheres lased (that is, flashed a well-defined color like in a typical laser, representing the gaseous molecule undergoing this phenomenon).


As an aside, there is something karmic coupling the afterlife with SETI, as Science Digest, in its October 1985 issue on “The 20 Greatest Unanswered Questions of Science,” featured on its front cover, English-born and Princeton professor Freeman Dyson, the 2002 Templeton Prize awardee. Dyson was asked the question, “Are We Alone in the Universe?” He responded, “engaging in mathematical calculations on the probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe is not a worthwhile exercise. The universe may be crawling with life. The answer is: Wait and see.” Dyson had previously worked on a different Orion Project, but that was around 1960, and it had to do with using nuclear pulse propulsion for space-flight.


Anyway, returning to the discussion, a Jupiter-size planet cannot be seen revolving around a typical Sun-size star tens of light years away because the starlight is so much brighter by 5 to 10 orders of magnitude (meaning 10 to that power, or in the inverse, the light from an extrasolar planet is from 1/100,000 to 1/10,000,000,000, or one ten billionth that of the star). However, if the planetary atmosphere lased, then these spiked discrete frequencies, first, might well be detectable because you would know exactly which monochromatic colors to check (the lasing frequency of those gases that would be found in planetary atmospheres), thus, also, this would accordingly give the atmospheric composition. Conversely, if no lasing is detected, then that planet has no atmosphere, and can summarily be deleted from future consideration regarding the potential for harboring life. My PhD dissertation experience, which included building a tunable laser before you could purchase one, provided this spark of imagination. I went to see Professor Townes, and he graciously provided encouragement.


My final report to NASA was called “To See the Impossible Dream: the Planetary Abstracting Trinterferometer (note the acronym, PAT),” with a Man from La Mancha symbol on the cover. I of course quoted Miguel de Cervantes:


To Man, the Don Quixote of the universe

May he succeed in his impossible dream.


At first I thought David Black, the NASA coordinator, reacted to my paper as being some kind of joke, but I now understand that optical searches were not company policy. That is, as it makes a lot more technical sense to measure the microwave spectrum for actual alien signals, NASA seemed wedded to focusing only on that particular technology, even for detecting extrasolar planets. Why microwave? These signals can travel further in space (less degradation) than optical ones.


Anyway, Black surmised that the Hubble Telescope would be soon to fly and find such exoplanets. Hubble was actually deployed 14 years later, and only in 2008 (32 years later) detected a planet orbiting a star. This telescope was serviced one final time later in 2009 for operation until 2013, when the James Webb Space Telescope is expected to be launched. Without an orbit reboost, the Hubble could plunge to Earth sometime soon after 2019. In any case, the prevailing convention then, as now, was to explore and receive the microwave band, so anything resembling optical searches did not meet the accepted requirements.


Either way, there is a timing concern, as, more and more, new commercial communications satellites will cloud the radio spectrum, especially in the range of the most promising detection channels. Thus, SETI will soon need to move into outer space if the focus is to continue traditional interferometry measurement techniques on Earth.


Two final bits about the ‘70’s, in 1975, the U.S. Congress published “The Possibility of Intelligent Life Elsewhere in the Universe.” In 1978, Senator William Proxmire (D-Wisconsin) selected NASA’s SETI program for one of his famous Golden Fleece Awards. The following year found me in Washington, D.C. as U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga’s Special Assistant on Energy. Little did I know that while helping to solve our second energy crisis, one of my more interesting tasks would be related to SETI.

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At one point today, the Dow Jones Industrials dipped more than 100 points. However, the DJI ended down only 17 at 10,434, while world markets were also mostly lower. Gold continued to set world records, jumping $9/toz to $1169. Crude oil is now around $77/barrel.

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Tropical Typhoon Nida, at 115 MPH, was at first heading in the general direction of Guam, located 200 miles away, but now looks to move towards southern Japan, perhaps in a week. There is a tropical depression now affecting Mindanao (southern Philippine island). Tropical Cyclone Bongani, at 40 MPH, is moving west, just north of Madagascar.

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The 125th country just checked into this blog site:

MOLDOVA POPULATION: 4,324,450



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Background
Formerly part of Romania, Moldova was incorporated into the Soviet Union at the close of World War II. Although independent from the USSR since 1991, Russian forces have remained on Moldovan territory east of the Dniester River supporting the Slavic majority population, mostly Ukrainians and Russians, who have proclaimed a "Transnistria" republic. One of the poorest nations in Europe, Moldova became the first former Soviet state to elect a Communist as its president in 2001.

Map data ©2009 Europa Technologies - Terms of Use


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Monday, November 23, 2009

TAKAHASHI PREDICTS THE FUTURE

November 23 is not a particularly memorable day in history. Japan has a holiday today, a fusion of labor and thanksgiving, although turkey is not particularly popular. Good a day as any to predict the future. Perhaps a year from now I'll review how well I did.

1. On Global Climate Change: President Barack Obama will find a convincing excuse for not again going to Copenhagen (one Chicago Olympics embarrassment is enough) next month and will send in his place Michelle and Al (Gore). Of course, there will be no congressional legislation passed this year, and, maybe not next, too, unless tens of millions perish in the summer of 2010.

2. On Peak Oil: crude petroleum prices will remain under $100/barrel. (I need to pad my stats.)

3. About the Health Plan: The Senate will find a way to drag this on until December 21 or so and, somehow, find a way to call for a final up or down vote, where VP Joe Biden will cast the 51st vote to pass it. Through this means, ten deserving Democrats will be allowed to vote "no" to help them get re-elected next year. The conference committee will thus bestow a Christmas present to President Barack Obama. Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu, whose birthday is today, will also extort a nice gift, for which she has been labeled a prostitute.

4. Bullish on the American Economy: The stock market will not crash this year. The weak American dollar is helping our export enterprises, and the continuing low interest rates will make our national debt a moneymaker. You see, if our country can borrow from foreigners at these purposefully low rates, hoping that we make more from those stimulus funds (which we had to appropriate to prevent a great depression), on net balance, we will be ahead. This is what companies in our free enterprise system do.

5. How high will gold go? Gold hit another historic high today, and has jumped 45% this past year. However, if, in the right box (Calculating the Current Value of Money) you type in $850 (which was the price in 1980) and 2009 (actually, this service only goes up to 2008, but inflation has been low this year), you will get: $2222. Thus, gold, today at $1166/toz (that's troy ounces, where one toz is 10 percent higher in weight than an avoirdupois, the kind you normally use, ounce--or looking at this another way, you will get 3 grams more of gold if you insist on toz over aoz) can almost double to reach an all-time high based on current dollars.

6. What about the Hawaiian Economy? Over the next two years, the slowly improving economy and oil prices below $100/barrel will result in more tourists visiting the State. China and Korea will be expected surprises. This steer (no testicles) economy will be sufficient for our decision-makers to ignore replacing our economic lifeline--the jetliner and jet fuel-- with a hydrogen-powered aircraft or jet fuel from algae. We, of course, should have begun this process 30 years ago after the second energy crisis, for something like this takes at least a generation to commercialize, so it is already too late, for the combined hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming will almost surely force oil prices up to $150/barrel within the decade and tourism will drop by 50%. You think furloughs will help then? While it is, indeed, too late, we can minimize the agony by initiating a crash program for Rinaldo's Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper or hoping for a genetic miracle with marine algae. With Senator Daniel Inouye as chairman of both the full and defense appropriations committees, and President Barack Obama in the White House, surely, there must be a way to get this going.
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The Dow Jones Industrials leaped another 133 points, ending at 10,451, a 13 month high, with world markets all also up, save for Japan, which is on holiday. Yes, gold hit another all-time max, jumping $16/toz to $1166. Crude oil seems content vacillating between $77 and $80 per barrel.

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Remember Hurricane Ida (my blog of November 8) traipsing through Florida and up the Atlantic Seaboard? Well, that was the storm that, beginning Wednesday of last week, and lasting through the weekend, dumped more than a foot of rain in portions of the United Kingdom. Iniki in 1992 caused damages of $2.6 billion (2009 dollars), mostly on Kauai, and could well have originated off the African coast. No storms have been tracked going around the world.

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My life, actually, is a lot more enjoyable than only trying to save Planet Earth and Humanity. Today, I had a typical lunch, this one at Magic Island, where I picked up a plate lunch, container of Pinot Grigio, ate/drank, smoked a Ghurka cognac infused cigar (which came in crystal: a glass container...which means it was very expensive) and was joined by the following:

and a wedding of a Japanese couple:


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The 124th country to visit this site is:

LATVIA POPULATION: 2,245,423

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Background
The name "Latvia" originates from the ancient Latgalians, one of four eastern Baltic tribes that formed the ethnic core of the Latvian people (ca. 8th-12th centuries A.D.). The region subsequently came under the control of Germans, Poles, Swedes, and finally, Russians. A Latvian republic emerged following World War I, but it was annexed by the USSR in 1940 - an action never recognized by the US and many other countries. Latvia reestablished its independence in 1991 following the breakup of the Soviet Union. Although the last Russian troops left in 1994, the status of the Russian minority (some 30% of the population) remains of concern to Moscow. Latvia joined both NATO and the EU in the spring of 2004.

Map data ©2009 Europa Technologies - Terms of Use


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Saturday, November 21, 2009

VISITORS TO SIMPLE SOLUTIONS FOR PLANET EARTH AND HUMANITY BLOG SITE

My first SIMPLE SOLUTIONS FOR PLANET EARTH AND HUMANITY blog posting was on 29April08. I publish daily, except, usually only one weekend day. I will be challenged to maintain this pace when I next visit Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand and India.

I began subscribing to the site visit service early this year. One hundred and twenty three countries have now entered this site:
Map data ©2009 Europa Technologies - Terms of Use
Map
Satellite
Terrain

This is only part of the world. To view the full map, click on the Visitors box at the right, then click on Flag Map at the top.

The most number of visitors was registered on 21July09, two days after Pearl passed away: total (300) and new (126). The Huffington Post on 20July09 published my article on "Gratitude, Not Grief," which must have stimulated this interest.


Weekly Chart | Monthly Chart | Yearly Chart

You can click on "Weekly Chart" and "Monthly Chart" to see those graphs.

Integrating the above, 17,390 clicks have been registered, 678 this week. Thus:

17,390-123-678

represents the total number of visitors, countries and entries this week.

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A tropical depression has formed north of Papua New Guinea.

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Friday, November 20, 2009

DON'T WORRY TOO MUCH ABOUT OUR NATIONAL DEBT




How serious is our public debt? Let me cite two tables. The first is from the 24October09 issue of The Economist:



Yes, while the Japanese public debt is around 230% of their Gross National Product (GDP), the United States is at a "mere" 100%.

Interestingly enough, the CIA Factbook has a table of essentially the same international comparison, with Zimbabwe at the top with a debt percentage of 266%, and Japan's is listed #2 at 172%. Italy (#5) is shown at 105% and Canada(#21) is at 64%, both very close to the above numbers. However, I couldn't find the USA until I reached #61 at 38%.

So what's going on? On the right you see an entry point for the national debt, and clicking on it gives:

$ 1 2 , 0 2 2 , 1 4 1 , 4 4 7 , 1 5 6 . 9 7

or just over $12 trillion (I insert it here, as this number sometimes disappears) as our debt. Our GDP is $14.4 trillion, so a simple calculation provides a figure of 83%. What is the CIA trying to do? Certainly, I would tend to believe The Economist. Anyway, our national debt is around our annual GDP. A third summary of the U.S. debt from Wikipedia:

Year .........Debt....% of GDP
................(trillions)
20089,985.870.2
2009 (est.)12,867.590.4
2010 (est.)14,456.398.1
2011 (est.)15,673.9101.0
2012 (est.)16,565.7100.6
2013 (est.)17,440.299.7
2014 (est.)18,350.099.8
Thus, yes, the percentage is at around 100%, which is expected to edge up until 2012, then begin to drop. Expect an even higher figure, though, for the health care measure will initially add more debt (just plain old common sense as 50 million or so more people will now need to be covered), but over the next decade, when the public option finally kicks in to compete, the unacceptable growth rate will be checked. Yes, the U.S. Senate apparently will vote tomorrow (Saturday) night to try to begin debate. This should last almost till Christmas Eve, then, dramatically pass. In any case, barring any new wars, the Venus Syndrome or the crush of true Peak Oil, we should be okay by 2020.

Oh, by the way, also from Wikipedia:

The debt limit was most recently raised to $12.104 trillion by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (H.R.1), which was signed into law on February 17, 2009 (P.L. 111-5).[11]

So there is a check and balance system in place in case you were wondering if this can go on forever. The answer is yes, of course it can, as Congress regularly raises the limit when asked by the President.

To go on, let us look at a historical graph from zFacts:



The all-time high of 120% was attained at the end of the Second World War, but the current exponential slope looks damning. However, 83% or 100% is still nowhere close to Japan, which appears to be surviving at double that rate. I should mention without going into details that the Gross Domestic Product is about 10% lower than the Gross National Product, and these percentages differ from different sources depending on whether GNP or GDP is being used, and the year cited.

You will note that the Reagan-Bush the Senior years reign showed a doubling of our national debt/GDP ratio, while the Bush the Younger years initiated the jump when Congress passed the initial bailout package in December of 2008 before Obama came into office. While we're at this, look to the right and focus on the CALCULATE THE CURRENT VALUE OF MONEY box, where to the astonishment of most you, President Reagan, when he came into office in 1982 faced exactly the same predicament as Obama, for the second energy crisis had discombobulated the economy. As you can read, in 2009 dollars, Reagan got a $1.8 trillion recovery package, double that of Obama.

Finally, what about China:



Yes, China owns 24%, and Japan, that country with a 200% or so debt/GDP ratio, is at 20%. Actually, China recently dropped to 23% and Japan rose to 21%, and all this is not as bad as you might think, as foreigners only account for about 25% of this debt. 75% is owned by us. Thus, China's hold on on our economy is actually less than 6%. So let them them bolt and invest in Zimbabwe (remember, their debt/GDP percentage is 266%--and China has a platinum problem with this country today--this from AlJazeera.net, of all places) instead. Yup, China is contemplating moving money from the U.S. into African, South American and Indonesian resources. It's a risk, but would you rather trust in the USA or gain sure access to world resources, which will only jump in prices over the next decade?

So, be mildly concerned about our escalating national debt, but there is no need to anguish, and ignore those editorials that regularly pop up throwing fear at you about China pulling out their money, causing an American depression. Just won't happen.

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The Dow Jones Industrials, at one point down 56, ended only 14 down at 10, 318, while world markets all dropped. Gold hit another all-time high, up $6/toz to $1150, while crude oil slid below $77/barrel.

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Thursday, November 19, 2009

CONCERNING CARBON

I yesterday spent most of my day at a workshop sponsored by the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology at the University of Hawaii:

“Concerning Carbon”

Symposium Agenda

Asia Room, East-West Center

Wednesday 18 November 2009

0800: Doors open, coffee available

0830: Begin session, Framework talks

Brian Taylor, Overview

Pete Mouginis-Mark, UH satellite opportunities for carbon cycle; Matt Church, Ocean carbon time series observations; David Karl, Kaimalino as a platform for process studies

1000: Break

1030: Ocean color, ocean phys-bio-geochemical processes in 4-D, air-sea fluxes,and related research topic presentations. Leadoff discussions by Brian Taylor, Paul Lucey, Bor Yann Liaw, John Porter, Nikolai Maximenko, and others.

1200: Lunch

1300: Ocean acidification, coral reef health, coastal ocean processes and related research topic presentations. Leadoff discussions by Richard Zeebe, Marlin Atkinson, Eric DeCarlo, Paul Jokiel, Rhian Waller, and others.

1430: Break

1500: Carbon sequestration, and related research topic presentations. Leadoff discussions by Lorenz Magaard, Greg Ravizza, Gerard Nihous, Kevin Johnson, Michael Antal, and others.

1630: Adjourn

In each discussion session, we anticipate additional speakers from the participants – please bring your slides with you! We have approximately 45 participants confirmed, and the room holds 60, so we look forward to a well-attended and intellectually stimulating day!

Image of Brian Taylor.

The event was inspired by Dean Brian Taylor and led by Sandy Shor. It was an informative experience for me, although much of the science was way beyond my current interest level. Dean Taylor indicated that this was an opportunity for the various departments and institutes in the school to interact so that partnerships could be formed.

A few presentations caught my attention. For example, Paul Jokiel reported that the projected ocean warming, which will also increase acidification, will affectively dissolve much of the coral within the century, if not in 50 years. At least, I think that is what he said. Someone will correct me if not so.

Michael Antal postulated that the conversion of biomass into carbon (he has a patented system) can make a crucial difference, for, added to the soil, plant growth can perhaps be improved by 70%. Further, this carbon will largely remain in the elemental form for a long period of time. I asked whether his concept could be applied to the open ocean. He said he'll think about it. Again, perhaps some readers of this blog might suggest marine pathways.



There were other interesting talks, but, like most gatherings, the informal discussions during breaks provided the opportunity for me to personally satisfy my curiosity. For example, David Karl mentioned that artificial upwelling from OTEC, if properly managed, could well remediate carbon dioxide because of the phosphorus factor, plus the opportunity to conveniently add trace metals (such as iron) to the controlled marine biosystem. The former is a new one for me, while the latter is the Martin Experiment. Dave, of course, is part of at least one of those teams continuing the effort. Even a company, Climos, has formed to take advantage of the coming market incentives.


Dave and I have had discussions in the past about the role of methane in climate change. Only a few years ago, methane was not considered to be much of a problem. Today, the global warming influence of this gas could well be up to one-third the worry.


The Venus Syndrome, to become, possibly, my first novel, with two co-authors, will develop the potential of marine methane hydrates (from the tundra and near coastal sites) triggering a worst case scenario: the conversion of Planet Earth to Planet Venus, which has a surface temperature of around 900 degrees Fahrenheit. This is Chapter 5 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth. One molecule of methane has 25 times the potency of a carbon dioxide molecule towards climate heating. While the storyboard for the novel has satellites detecting this sudden jump of methane emanations, Peter Mouginis-Mark said that no one is doing any of this today, and it might be impossible. I guess we will need to get creative. Hey, this will be a novel.


While a few scientists have speculated that sudden releases of marine methane hydrates have occurred in our geologic past, resulting in sudden temperature jumps, the 900 degree scare will just not happen to our globe. But is 50 degrees F possible? Maybe, and it certainly does make for an intriguing novel premise, perhaps providing that needed 2x4 club to influence decision-makers, for the simple solution to prevent this cataclysm is to control our climate now, and all signs show that nothing much will happen in Copenhagen next month.


Anyway, to return to the symposium, Dean Taylor began the process of forming working groups on ocean color, carbon sequestration (or, at least to team on another proposal to the National Science Foundation's Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship program) and a third related to coral reefs and ocean acidification. He suggested a white paper from each team by the early spring.


Just to plant a seed, for this was not the appropriate venue for this topic, I nevertheless lightly expounded on the need for Hawaii to initiate R&D on sustainable aviation, as our state is so dependent on tourism, and jet fuel prices will skyrocket when Peak Oil occurs. Maybe a partnership with the College of Engineering on designing a next generation hydrogen powered aircraft (which could be a dirigible capable of flying up to 350 miles per hour) and producing jet fuel from marine algae. Any of this will not be commercialized in time, but if we start now (and we should have after the 1979 energy crisis) we might be able to shorten the length of the looming great local depression. In my retirement I'm into doomsday threats. To my pleasant surprise, several faculty members came up to talk to me about this subject. There is presently no substitute for the jetliner nor jet fuel on the horizon, and no one, save for some beginning work on biofuels from algae, is spearheading this study area. This is by the far the most important economic need for the State, and SOEST is ideally conformed to take this leadership role.


Finally, I might add that Manfred Zapka sent me two references:


1. Climatologists Baffled by Global Warming Time-Out (Gerald Traufetter): just released today from Germany, here are more details to my November 3 blog, giving detractors a new set of ammo to deride global warming.


2. On Warming, Peat is the "Elephant in the Room" (Washington Post): report today indicating that peat fires (usually purposely to clear land) on Borneo in 2006 equaled the combined emissions from Germany, Britain and Canada, or more than all U.S emissions from ground and air travel.

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The Dow Jones Industrials were down 170 at one point, but recovered to end minus 94 at 10,332, while world markets also mostly decreased. Crude oil dropped below $78/barrel and gold stayed steady at $1144/toz.

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The oceans are quiet.

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Wednesday, November 18, 2009

HOW CLOSE IS DOOMSDAY?

Yes, 2012, the movie, revealed how much humanity enjoys the prospects of doomsday (but for fantasy, only), for it was the #1 film last week, pulling in $225 million worldwide. While not as entertaining, the reality is that any end of the world will more probably "only" be a diminution of our daily life so that survival becomes a challenge. The following is an edited e-mail message I sent to a colleague yesterday. While the specific purpose was to comment on his crusade to commercialize the field of biofuels from microalgae, I thought this was a good opportunity (there was a bunch of cc's) for me to crystallize the essence of many of my postings into the beginnings of a cohesive story regarding various tangential pathways to a sustainable future. In parallel, I should mention that I'm in the midst of reparteeing with various individuals from a couple of internet forums about the future. I'm simplifying, but they essentially are of the opinion that Peak Oil and Global Warming will permanently reduce (and worse) our lifestyle, so the best we can do is to educate the masses about this coming doom. I urge you to click on a particularly excellent blog providing Jon Barrett's view on this issue. As you can see, their arguments are beginning to affect my attitude, although I remain resolute in my belief that giving up is not an option.


Dear Professor X:


I can only agree with you that biofuels from algae for the next few decades will need to link with other applications, such as environmental remediation. Now you know why I felt compelled that you meet with Dr. Y in Ozland, and when you said you were going to the Middle Kingdom to grow algae ONLY for biofuels production, I was almost rude in seeking from you and the team some calculations regarding these costs, which never came.


As I very early on felt that hydrogen was too expensive today, I similarly felt uncomfortable about algae being the pathway to biofuels. Energy, even at $100/barrel, is just too cheap to use any biological process. Ethanol, using any process, will require a few more breakthroughs or oil at a price higher than $100/barrel.

I'm also suspicious about plug-in electric cars, for the lithium battery is the last battery, coal will continue to be the prevailing electrical feedstock for many decades to come (and watch out for the real carbon tax when tens of millions perish one hot summer), and it is said that, for the same weight of fuel and power train, a fuel cell system will take a vehicle five times further than the lithium battery. Hawaii is particularly condemned because, while globally, oil is used to generate electricity in only 1% of power plants, this is the dominant fuel in Hawaii. Plus, when you additionally consider that our economy is uniquely based on jet fuel and the uncertainty of how high petroleum will go, I can't imagine any technology close to being developed in time to save our local economy when Peak Oil occurs.


Finally, returning to how our interest first got started, ground transport, the only biofuel I have any hope for is methanol through gasification and catalysis, but only if the direct methanol fuel cell can be developed. One gallon of methanol has more accessible hydrogen than one gallon of liquid hydrogen, so I can't understand the continued push for the hydrogen-powered car. We should be investing billions on the direct methanol fuel cell. While the Farm Lobby is the sole reason why this is not happening, it should be a simple matter of convincing them that their non-food fiber can more economically be converted into methanol.


Oh, by the way, as oil could skyrocket to more than $150/barrel, it is also a good idea to spend billions on algal biofuels, for there are opportunities for breakthroughs through genetic engineering and the long-term promise of the oceans. On to the Blue Revolution.


Aloha.


Pat


So how close are we to DOOMSDAY? I don't know, but the above is, more or less, an optimist's take on what should be our research priorities for a sustainable energy future. For a counterpoint, I urge you to click on Jon Barrett's blog.

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The Dow Jones Industrials slipped 11 to 10,426, while world markets were mostly down. The Japan Nikkei, incidentally, which for some time was higher than the DJI, is today at 9553, so the American economy is at least doing better than that of the Japanese. Well, gold went up $4/toz, so now at $1144, is again, at another all-time high, while crude oil is inching back up to just under $80/barrel.

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Aside for a declining Tropical Cyclone Anja in the Indian Ocean, our oceans are relatively calm.

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