From Worldometer, COVID-19 new deaths:
DAY USA WORLD Brazil India South Africa
June 9 1093 4732 1185 246 82
July 5 251 3572 535 421 173
7 993 5504 1312 479 192
12 380 4118 659 500 108
15 1001 5760 1261 614 107
19 412 4606 715 675 85
22 1205 7128 1293 1120 572
26 450 4307 556 715 114
Aug 1 1462 6429 1191 765 193
3 467 4430 514 514 213
Aug 1 1462 6429 1191 765 193
3 467 4430 514 514 213
5 1362 6292 1394 849 345
10 534 4813 593 1013 198
12 1504 6556 1242 835 130
16 522 4525 582 961 162
18 1358 6312 1365 1089 282
21 1170 6062 1031 953 225
22 974 5349 823 918 144
23 430 4247 495 846 72
12 1504 6556 1242 835 130
16 522 4525 582 961 162
18 1358 6312 1365 1089 282
21 1170 6062 1031 953 225
22 974 5349 823 918 144
23 430 4247 495 846 72
24 510 4356 679 854 100
25 1290 5856 1215 1066 149
26 1289 6341 1090 1017 194
27 1143 6057 970 1065 126
28 1105 5711 868 1019 115
27 1143 6057 970 1065 126
28 1105 5711 868 1019 115
29 954 5305 904 944 238
30 369 4182 398 960 47
30 369 4182 398 960 47
Summary:
Enough of that. On Friday I introduced you to three programs on Netflix. I'll bring you up to date on the two that I said were to be premiered that night, using the third, bestowed a grade of FFF (flatulently flagrant failure), for comparison purposes. The three (scores are from Rotten Tomatoes):
FILM Reviewers Audiences My Grade
Cobra Kai (Season 1) 100 96 B
All Together Now 80 ? B
Drunk Parents 0 15 FFF
Any time Rotten Tomatoes shows 100%, I try to immediately watch. Sometimes, I wonder why, but usually, these productions are, indeed, excellent. Cobra Kai was good, but 100%? There are three seasons, and I have watched only three episodes of Season 1, each half an hour long. 13.5 hours to go.
In short, there seems to be at least a slight role reversal. Ralph Macchio remains as the good guy who won the karate match against the evil opposition, somewhat represented by the loser, William Zabka. Macchio went on to marry well, found a successful car dealership become rich and have a good family.
Zabka had a rocky life, who had sunk into despair, when some innocent Hispanic kid helped turn him around, inspiring the opening of Cobra Kai, the name of the karate club from the past. All the disappointments and rotten nature are still evident, but signs are forming to convert Zabka into, perhaps, the character you most want to succeed.
All Together Now has had numerous incarnations:
Then, everything went wrong and the movie became mostly depressing, so much so that half a dozen times I was close to quitting. I hung in there because she was from Hawaii and her character's life somewhat reflected what I went through in high school:
Aulii Pat (me)
Location of film Portland, Oregon Honolulu, Hawaii
High school name McKinley McKinley
Lifestyle homeless poor*
College dream Carnegie Mellon Stanford
Odds on being accepted Good poor
*plus I now live in a seniors' facility (which comes into play at the end)
The woes kept piling up to the point where she quit school to earn money so her tiny dog could get an operation. Sort of reminded me of Drunk Parents, in that it took a lot of creative writing to keep compounding the nightmare. I won't share anything more so that you too can suffer through her agonies.
So I shouldn't say this, but there is a happy ending, for the final scene shows her on to Carnegie Mellon for the postponed requested audition. The heroine in this ordeal was huffy Carol Burnett, a resident of an assisted living center.
Cravalho was the voice of Moana, the Disney movie. Now, her first starring film and screen kiss. An outstanding career awaits her.
I did learn a lesson. One can can experience an enhanced sense of exhilaration if you survive a tragedy or short state of mental depression. You hope these depths are not truly serious, but the compounding adversities in the film, ending with elation, served to further boost my continuing euphoria, which began almost two years ago. There have been a couple of minor ruts, but from early June of last year, this happiness has endured.
Lady Gaga was the star of the MTV Video Music Awards last night, and well exhibited her mask collection. Take that, Donald:
Typhoon Maysak, now at 125 MPH, is just about on top of Kumejima, that Okinawan island which has an OTEC experiment. Then, the projection is on to South Korea. The country could really be hurt, as this has been a very wet monsoon season, and Typhoon Bavi just last week dumped a lot of rain. Maysak could well become the most devastating typhoon to make landfall over the country.
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- Don't get too excited about these low numbers on a Monday.
- As a bad sign, yesterday India suffered the highest one-day new case figure for any country, ever: 79,457.
- How serious is this?
- Hawaii yesterday had 200 new cases. Nothing much, right? WRONG!
- India has a population just around 1000 times that of Hawaii (actually, 966). Thus, Hawaii's equivalent rate if we had India's population, was 193,286 new cases. We have recently been up to more than 300 new cases/day. That would equate to 289,924, which is 3.6 times that of India! And that figure for India was the worst for any country thus far.
- But we do test more, 184,153 tests/million people (which actually is the equivalent of testing only 18.4% of the population). India's is 29,996 tests/million. Yes, that's 3% of the population.
- Hawaii has suffered from 63 deaths, which means 0.000045/capita. India is at 0.000047, very similar to Hawaii.
- The USA, however, has had 0.00057/capita, or more than TEN times higher than Hawaii or India. How does this compare to the world? Let me put this number in deaths/million people:
- World 109
- USA 565 (opened up economy too soon)
- India 47
- Hawaii 45
- Peru 871
- Germany 112
- Canada 241
- Sweden 574 (did not fully close economy)
- China 3
- Japan 10
- Singapore 5
- Australia 24
- South Korea 6
- Thailand 0.8
So as Donald Trump keeps bragging we are doing well in resisting COVID-19, keep in mind that, in terms of deaths/capita, we are:
- About 5 times worse than India and Germany.
- About 100 times worse than much of the Orient.
Another way of looking at these deaths is in comparison to how you personally are affected. In the U.S. the odds that you died of this coronavirus was one chance in 1752. If our deaths end up doubling, that is still only a one chance in 876 that you will be killed by this virus this time around. A 100:1 horse in a race almost never wins. You should be relatively safe with 876:1 odds to survive this pandemic.
What about the chances of you getting this infection? If it turns out that the mortality rate ends up being 0.5% (the seasonal flu is 0.1%), including asymptomatic cases, and the current 187,224 deaths end up at 374,448 deaths, the odds are that one in 4.38 Americans actually will get afflicted with COVID-19. There is a lot of uncertainty in these odds, for it is unclear what the asymptomatic rate or mortality rate or number of deaths will be. However, nearly one in four Americans actually catching COVID is a bit frightening, and maybe too high a rate, for I honestly don't know one person who has this ailment. Further, there are more and more reports that you don't really fully recover from this disease. There are long-term consequences. Apparently, even those asymptomatic cases suffer from this complication.
Another comparison. A hundred years ago, when the Spanish Flu Pandemic struck humanity, there were slightly less than 2 billion people in the world. It is reported that around 500 million caught this virus (H1N1) and 50 million died. The mortality rate was thus 10%. The death percent of the world population was 2.5%. There are 850,148 deaths thus far from this coronavirus. Let's say this doubles. Dividing by the world population of 7.6 billion, the death percent for the current pandemic will be 0.005%. This current "puny" pandemic will thus have 500 times fewer deaths/capita than the Spanish Flu a century ago.
Incidentally, you might have forgotten about the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic we survived, caused by that H1N1 virus associated with the Spanish Flu. The numbers are rough, but it is estimated that from 151,700 to 575,400 were killed. So in 2020, with nearly a million deaths, we have already shot past those numbers. The estimate of all cases in 2009, including asymptomatic, was 700 million to 1.4 billion, or from 11-21% of the World. Today for the 2020 pandemic? We have just passed 25 million cases (but not counting most asymptomatic cases). If this doubles, that would only be around 50 million world cases. That's only 0.66% of the World population! This discrepancy can only be explained by the percentage of asymptomatic cases.
DO YOU KNOW WHY I AM PETRIFIED TODAY ABOUT HOW THIS UNKNOWN CALLED ASYMPTOMATIC CASES IS AFFECTING OUR LONGEVITY? To be safe, we need to test everyone and get the results today. But that would not be enough. Testing would need to be repeated in a week, and continue weekly for the rest of the pandemic. We are so short of quick tests that we are nowhere close to having this potential. With all the tests we are doing, thus far, only 25% of the national population has been checked since the beginning of this pandemic. Everyone, every week, for weeks? So improbable and impossible that we seem doomed. With schools opening, this sickness will fester for some time to come. Look at Florida. Cases are dropping, but why is the governor hiding K-12 school infections? Look at what is happening on college campuses. Hope that vaccine comes soon, and is effective.
FILM Reviewers Audiences My Grade
Cobra Kai (Season 1) 100 96 B
All Together Now 80 ? B
Drunk Parents 0 15 FFF
In short, there seems to be at least a slight role reversal. Ralph Macchio remains as the good guy who won the karate match against the evil opposition, somewhat represented by the loser, William Zabka. Macchio went on to marry well, found a successful car dealership become rich and have a good family.
- In 2008 there was a documentary about The Beatles and Cirque du Soleil in a collaboration about love.
- A 1990 British song of that name featuring the chord progression of Pachelbel's Canon in D.
- An Australian TV sitcom from 1991-1993.
- A British TV music competiton which lasted two years in 2018-2019.
- An Australian copy of that British series.
So why did the producers settle on All Together Now, when they could have picked something else and, also, perhaps more appropriate?
The beginning was a quick joy. Amber Appleton (played by Aulii Cravalho) was a campus leader, volunteered to teach English to older Korean women at a church, worked at a seniors' community, had a dad who graduated from Carnegie Mellon and was a singer/songwriter. That lasted all of five minutes, maybe.
Then, everything went wrong and the movie became mostly depressing, so much so that half a dozen times I was close to quitting. I hung in there because she was from Hawaii and her character's life somewhat reflected what I went through in high school:
Aulii Pat (me)
Location of film Portland, Oregon Honolulu, Hawaii
High school name McKinley McKinley
Lifestyle homeless poor*
College dream Carnegie Mellon Stanford
Odds on being accepted Good poor
*plus I now live in a seniors' facility (which comes into play at the end)
So I shouldn't say this, but there is a happy ending, for the final scene shows her on to Carnegie Mellon for the postponed requested audition. The heroine in this ordeal was huffy Carol Burnett, a resident of an assisted living center.I did learn a lesson. One can can experience an enhanced sense of exhilaration if you survive a tragedy or short state of mental depression. You hope these depths are not truly serious, but the compounding adversities in the film, ending with elation, served to further boost my continuing euphoria, which began almost two years ago. There have been a couple of minor ruts, but from early June of last year, this happiness has endured.
Lady Gaga was the star of the MTV Video Music Awards last night, and well exhibited her mask collection. Take that, Donald:
Typhoon Maysak, now at 125 MPH, is just about on top of Kumejima, that Okinawan island which has an OTEC experiment. Then, the projection is on to South Korea. The country could really be hurt, as this has been a very wet monsoon season, and Typhoon Bavi just last week dumped a lot of rain. Maysak could well become the most devastating typhoon to make landfall over the country.
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