EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF COVID-19 VACCINES

From Worldometer,  COVID-19 new deaths:

           DAY USA   WORLD   Brazil      India   South Africa

June      9     1093    4732        1185      246         82

July       1       676    4857        1057      438         92

             5       251    3572          535       421       173

             6       378    3573          656       474       111

             7       993    5504        1312       479       192

           12       380    4118          659       500       108

           13       465    3729          770       540         93

           14       935    5414        1341       586       174

           15     1001    5760        1261       614       107

           19       412    4606          715       675         85

           20       545    4040          718       596       140

           21     1119    5669        1346       671        195

           22     1205    7128        1293     1120        572

           26       450    4307         556       715        114
           27      596     4200         627       636        298
           28    1266     5589         955       776        190
           30    1485     7023       1544       779        240
           31    1465     6418       1189       783        315
Aug      1    1462     6429       1191       765        193
            2     1123     5601       1048       852        148
            3       467     4430         514       514        213

            4       567     4366         572       810        173

Summary:  Nothing much new.

Professional sports seem now to be serving as the canary in the coal mine of coronavirus.  Guess the site of the NBA bubble:

• Why are fans flocking to Disney World since its reopening, undeterred by Florida’s outbreak? In The Atlantic, Shirley Li breaks down what makes the parks “not just attractive, but vital” to their devotees. “I felt safer going to Disney than going to the grocery store,” one attendee told her.

• “Baseball is never just about baseball,” Doug Glanville, a former major league player, wrote in an essay in The Times’s Opinion section about the sport’s recent outbreak of coronavirus infections. “It is called our national pastime for a reason. The virus has dealt a serious blow not just to the league’s operation but, in some sense, to the nation itself.”

• My take on school openings is analogous to Major League Baseball, where the Florida Marlins and St Louis Cardinals were hit with numerous cases of COVID-19.  Attempts will be made to have at least some classroom learning.  However, the case count will jerk upwards in those regions, resulting in considerable pull-back.  The result is that the new cases and deaths will not result in a particularly serious next wave.  However, the economy of the nation will sink even further so that in early October we will have a totally screwed up schooling system combined with a still rotten economy.

• Here is what happened to Israel:

• The government sent students back to the classroom in May, for the case numbers looked encouraging.
• Outbreaks closed more than 240 schools and led to the quarantine of 28,147 teachers and students!

As Kliner told the Knesset, 1,400 Israelis were diagnosed with the disease last month. Of those, 185 caught it at events such as weddings, 128 in hospitals, 113 in workplaces, 108 in restaurants, bars, or nightclubs, and 116 in synagogues, according to Kliner, while 657—which is to say 47 percent of the total—were infected by the coronavirus in schools.

• Useful info for Donald Trump:
• The former king of Spain, Juan Carlos, announced he was abandoning his country amid investigations into possible money laundering and tax evasion. 
• It would be wise of Trump to find a country which makes extradition difficult.

• New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd has made the ridiculing of Donald Trump into an art form.  Read her latest.  A quote:

Even Trump’s allies are baffled about why he can’t fake a sense of compassion and competency. He has made enough cheesy movie cameos — even one hawking cheese-stuffed Pizza Hut crust — that he should know how to pretend to be halfway human.

Here is all you need to know about the development of the COVID-19 vaccine:

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• There are 165 candidates with 27 already in human trials.
• Phase 1:  for safety
• Phase 2:  for efficacy and dosing
• Phase 3
• for efficacy
• would involve tens of thousands of people
• should take several months
• each study will need 30,000 volunteers
• they will each probably earn $500 to $1200 and more for getting one or more shots and participate in interviews over a one-year period
• multiply $1000 by several hundred thousand to get the cost of paying volunteers
• Don't look for the use of weakened coronavirus at this time because of the risk.
• The first generation will merely limit the severity of the spread.
• Think flu shot rather than polio vaccine, which gives 99/100% immunity for a few years.
• Expect something like 50% effectiveness.  Not good, but better than zero.
• Beginning early next year there could well be 300 million dosages available, but all signs point to the need for two shots, a month or more apart.
• Some priority system will be developed as to who gets injected first.  In any case, what percent actually taking this vaccination is a big unknown, especially since there is yet no assurance of long term safety.  The seasonal flu immunization rate is always below 50%.

• Here is a complete list of the 42 leading contenders.  Scan down the list to be impressed with the world effort.  Incredible how fast this field is moving.

My predictions:

• The FDA will make an announcement in October on the success and promise early availability, which will probably mean January.  Something Trump will insist for the November 3 vote.  Maybe too quick for public safety, but, after all, this is Operation Warp Speed, and you know the ethics of the White House.

• Dr. Anthony Fauci has said he would be glad to take the first shot.  However, sometime later in October, Donald will trump Fauci and with great fanfare, in the Rose Garden, be the first official volunteer.

Here I'm trying to Save Planet Earth and Humanity.  Then someone puts together 12 minutes of nothing.  Interesting, perhaps, but lacking in significance.  Certainly not worth your time, unless you have absolutely nothing better to do.  Click on that link to at least find out what this object might be.  Not an avocado.

Okay, one more.  Two minutes of flowers from, I think, Russia:

Tropical Storm Isaias made landfall over North Carolina and is racing through New York into Massachusetts.  Lot's of rain and still strong gusts.  

In the West Pacific, Typhoon Hagupit rolled over Zhejiang and Hangzhou, skirting Singapore, and is now a tropical storm soon to enter the Yellow Sea, with a projected path towards Russia or North Korea.

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I've moved Pearl's Sunburst into the 15 Craigside 12th floor elevator lobby area.  Should be in full bloom in a couple of days.