AN UPDATE ON WIND ENERGY

Today I will update a posting of a dozen years ago, entitled:

     WHAT IS THE STATE OF WIND ENERGY TODAY?

In that blog of 5 August 2011 I said:

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  In 2010 almost 40,000 MW of new wind energy conversion systems (WECS) became operational, an equivalent of 47 nuclear power plants (850 MW/reactor).  The world total now is at around 200,000 MW of WECS, or said to be  the equivalent of 235 nuclear facilities.  

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  There are 442 nuclear power plants in 30 countries having a net electricity capacity of 375,000 MW, with 63,000 MW in 16 countries under construction.  However, almost half the new nuclear construction projects are in China, which has murmured the possibility of reviewing this option.  Germany will shut down all its nuclear plants by 2022 and Japan is in a real dilemma.

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  So I will first see how nuclear power has changed during these dozen years.
• Countries with nuclear power today = 32, or two more
• Number of power plants = 438, or four less
• Total capacity in megawatts electricity = 393,333, or 18,333 MW more.
• A typical nuclear facility is 1000 MW: they say that a plant this size uses 360 times less land than wind energy and 75 times less than a solar photovoltaic farm.
• Germany has decided to delay phase-out of nuclear, but only for one  year.
• Belgium has postponed phase-out for ten years.
• Switzerland will phase-out by 2034.
• Spain is on track to phase-out both nuclear and coal by 2035.
• Japan has 33 available reactors, of which 10 are operating today, and two more are in construction.  Fukushima has seriously affected Japan's economy, a pain that will continue for decades.
• The USA has by far the most nuclear power plants, with 92, and 2 more in construction.
• France has 56, with one in construction.
• China has 55, with 18 in construction.
• Russia has 37, with 4 in construction.
• South Korea has 25, with 3 in construction.
• Ukraine has 15, with 2 in construction.
• India has 22 with 8 in construction.
• Here is a list of nuclear powerplant accidents.  
• USA has had 55 recorded accidents.
• The World?  Count them.
• In short, nuclear power production is increasing.

But back to wind energy:

• In 2010 Vestas Wind Energy Systems of Denmark sold 5,842 MW worth of wind turbines.  For 2022, Vestas took 11,189 MW of orders.
• The largest companies are:
• #1  Vestas
• Has installed over 145,000 MW of wind turbines in 85 countries. Note again, for comparison purposes, that is like wind energy has replaced 145 nuclear powerplants.
• Largest onshore is 6.8 MW.
• Largest offshore has a rated power of 15 MW.
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  #2  Siemens Gamesa (Spain)
• Subsidiary of Siemens Energy of Germany.  
• Has installed 109,600 MW, 15,000 MW offshore.

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  #3  Beijing Goldwind Science and Creation Windpower Equipment Company of China.
• Largest onshore wind turbine has a rated power of 8 MW.
• #4  Nordex of Germany.
• Largest onshore wind turbine is rated at 6 MW.

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  #5  General Electric Renewable Energy of France, which is the green energy branch of General Electric.
• Has installed over 49,000 wind turbines.  
• Their Halilade-X offshore turbine is rated at 14 MW.

Size of wind turbines continues to grow.  The Vestas V236-15MW is the largest today, with blades covering a diameter of 379 feet, longer than a football field, and stands 919 feet high.  Depends on the available wind speed, of course, but Vestas says that this one machine can power 20,000 European households, saving more than 418,999 tons of carbon dioxide/year.  Future offshore turbines will have a hub height (ground to middle of the turbine rotor) of 500 feet, about as high as the Washington Monument.

Leading wind energy countries: (in MW, with second column representing % of electricity generated for country)

• #1  China  328,973  6.1%
• #2  USA  132,738  9.2%
• #3  Germany  63,760  23.1%
• Spain is #5, and at 19%, while the UK is #6 at 21%.

Eight years ago the USA was #1 in wind energy.  China flew past us.  Here are where these machines are in the U.S.  Who knew in my early days that the middle portion of the nation had the highest average wind speed?  10 meters/second is 22.4 miles/hour.  The rule of thumb is that you need at least 14 MPH (6.3 m/sec) to be in a favorable wind regime.

Here is another wind generation potential map.  Note that there are few choice (blue and red) regions in the middle of the country.  Something seems askew between the above and below maps.  Only the ocean shows this very high potential.  But building wind devices at sea is more expensive to install and maintain.

The best wind regimes in Hawaii are clearly between the islands because the volcanoes channel the winds there.  The ENERGY produced by a wind turbine is the cube of the WIND SPEED.  In other words, a 25 MPH site produces 8 (25/12.5 = 2....then 2x2x2 = 8) times more energy than a 12.5 MPH site.  Thus, the future of wind energy in Hawaii will be in the Alenuihaha Channel between Maui and the Big Island, and also just south of South Point.  However, all the channels are promising, for they have average wind speeds  regions of 20 MPH and higher.

Electricity rates vary quite a bit across the country.  This source says that in January of 2023, the electricity rate consumers pay in cents/kWh were:

• San Diego  47.5
• Urban Hawaii  44.6  (I did not know we paid that much.)
• Boston  39.1
• San Francisco  31.7
• New York  24.3
• Urban Alaska  19.6
• Detroit  18.9
• Houston  18.1
• Tampa  17.7
• Phoenix  13.6
• Seattle  12.6
• St. Louis  12.2

Finally, how does wind energy generation costs compare with other options?  Depends on who you ask.  But the estimate from Lazard in 2021 showed, in cents/kWh:

• PV residential  14.7 to 22.1
• Nuclear  13.1 to 20.4
• Solar thermal  12.6-15.6
• Coal with carbon capture  6.5-15.2
• Wind offshore  8.3
• Geothermal  5.6-9.3
• Natural gas with carbon capture  4.5-7.4
• Wind onshore  2.6-5.0

There was no estimate for utility scale PV farms, but his figure has dropped quite a bit, and is comparable with wind onshore.  Here is a composite table from Wikipedia, and you can see that these numbers are not exactly consistent.

Note the storage costs on the right.  That is the problem with solar and wind.  They come and go.  Thus they both depend on the availability of storage options.  

Here is another graphic of some meaning.  The generation price from solar and wind has dramatically dropped, while that for nuclear has gone up.

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THE BEST STRATEGY FOR DEMOCRATS TO WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN NOVEMBER OF 2024

The New York Times had this bar graph of Republican candidates for the Presidential election next year.

After all his legal problems and moral turpitude derangements, it defies any kind of sensibility for Donald Trump to still be supported by 45.6% of Republicans for the next President of the United States.  

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  Then for Ron DeSantis to be the #1 second-tier hope, by a factor 5 over Mike Pence, because more and more party voters are beginning to be convinced that there are too many flaws for Trump to gain the presidential nomination in mid-July of 2024, places the party in a truly uncomfortable position.  
• I've long touted New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu as their best choice.  
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  And what about Liz Cheney?  Republicans are afraid that she will run as an independent candidate with an attractive Veep partner, like Adam Kinziger.  Or perhaps a conventional Republic off-shoot party as an alternative to Donald Trump, if he gains the nomination  If they draw only 2% of the votes, that would be enough to sink any Republican running, and they look good enough to earn 5%.

President Joe Biden says he intends to stand for re-election.  

• He is already 80 years old, the first sitting president to reach that age.
• If he runs and wins, he will be 87 years old when his second term ends.  An 83-year old American male has an additional life expectancy of less than 7 years.  A lot can go wrong.

One list I saw indicated that there are seven Democrats most likely to run if he doesn't, and five are women:  Kamala Harris, Stacey Abrams, Amy Klobuchar, Elizabeth Warren and Gretchan Whitmer.  Two men:  Gavin Newsom and Pete Buttigieg.

Thus, even for the Democratic Party, there is no truly charismatic leader clearly obvious to take on the challenge if Biden doesn't run.  I still think that Michelle Obama should be the one, and so do the Republicans, but she remains inclined to sit that out in 2024.  One poll shows her 8 points ahead of Kamala Harris and 12 relative to Bernie Sanders.  Veep partner?  California Governor Gavin Newsom.  But it's getting late.

So what should be the Democratic strategy to prevail on 5 November 2024?  For one, it doesn't matter who is the Democrat candidate.  Why?  Because anyone they select should be able to beat the Republican if they can only keep Donald Trump disconcertingly competitive into July of 2024.  Meaning:

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  Wait to convict and jail him.  
• New York has pulled back and so has the Department of Justice.  They should hold off until next year to pull him into court.  When exactly?  Not sure, but maybe a year from now might be okay, and move slowly, for the longer he is viable, the higher the chance of Republicans losing.
• Georgia seems to be moving faster than comfortable.  And that state does have a Republican governor who doesn't like Trump.

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  Isn't it too dangerous to take the chance of providing a path for Trump to actually gain the Republican nomination and win the election?  Democracy and worse will be at stake.  Yes, but that's the optimal gamble.

If he is allowed to operate with his usual impunity, he will even more royally screw up the Republican Party, and as importantly, swing some Independent votes to Democrats.  All you need is one vote more than 50% to win.  Republicans will be so much into alienation with his tactics and effectiveness, that two things will happen.

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  If he is the nominee, there is no way that he will retain all Republican votes, and should also lose most Independents.
• The Democratic strategy would be to convict him some time between mid-July into October.
• If someone else is the nominee, there will be a sufficient number of Trumpers so upset that they won't vote for that candidate.  Only 10% of them can make a big difference.
• The wild card, again, will be Independents. But this strategy will only sway them away from the Republican Party.

American Idol is into week two with a second Platinum ticket to 15-year old Kaylin Hedges last night.  Read about why here....heartwarming....and click on her presentation.  Last week's Platinum was Tyson Venegas.  Earlier, Elijah McCormick was voted a Platinum by fans during the video auditioning period.

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GOD IN FILMS

It's Sunday, so what about a film featuring God?  Portraying him in a movie is no easy task, unless it is a comedy.   You can read a book, as shown on the right, or skip to the core with one list of the top 10 Gods in movies:

• #10  Ignore, for this was a false god.
• #9    Dogma (1999):  Alanis Morissette was not convincing.  Rotten Tomatoes, 67/85.  In addition to her, Ben Aleck, Linda Fiorentino, Matt Damon, George Carlin, Salma Hayek, Alan Rickman and Chris Rock.
• #8    Citizen Toxie (2001):  Can't find the film that is described in this article.

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  #7    The Ten Commandments (1956):  doesn't qualify, for God is a pillar of flame, but there is the voice provided by Donald Hayne.
• #6    Switch:  A Blake Edwards, a farce and the voice of God is male (Richard Provost) and female (Linda Gary).  Again, no form.

• #5    Superstar (1999):  Will Ferrell plays a super-mellow God, indicating that Spirit in the Sky is him.  RT, 32/59.

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  #4    Time Bandits (1981):  Sir Ralph Richardson plays the Supreme Being in a Terry Gilliam production.  RT:  90/77.  Cast included John Cleese, Sean Connery, Shelley Duvall, Michael Palin, and George Harrison.
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  #3    Bruce Almighty (2003):  Morgan Freeman makes a really cool God, with a thin skin.  Starring Jim Carrey and Jennifer Aniston. RT: 48/57.
• #2:    Monty Python and the Holy Grail (1975):  Only the voice of Graham Chapman, but RT:  98/95.  Might as well watch it.  But I think I saw this movie a long time ago.  1975 is almost half a century ago.

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  #1:    Oh, God (1977).  At least God is old, in the form of George Burns, with John Denver, Teri Garr, Ralph Bellamy, Dinah Shore  Donald Pleasence, Paul Sorvino and David Ogden Stiers.  Directed by Carl Reiner.  RT, 74/60.

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  Not sure if this is #0 or #11, but...Evan Almighty (2007):  Again with Morgan Freeman, plus Steve Carell and John Goodman.  Tom Hanks as executive producer.  RT: 34/52.  Oh, got it, this film came out after this article was written.

I was also planning to have a list of the top Jesus performances, but will leave that to another Sunday.  Here, by the way, is God from Monty Python and the Holy Grail, cricket legend W.G. Grace.

Want to watch a video instead?  Click on this for another list, from WatchMojo.com.  This one is only 8 years old.  I'll tell you who won.  Morgan Freeman...but which film?

By the way, did any of you catch Saturday Night Live's spoof last night of Donald Trump visiting the train wreck in Palestine?  Worth a look.

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FILMS TO STREAM THIS WEEKEND

My streaming is limited to Netflix and Amazon Prime, and I avoid animated and comic book films.  I do more series watching than anything else, but now and then view available top movies.

The Top Ten Netflix films currently are:

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  #1  Your Place or Mine, about two best friends who are total opposites and live across the country from each other.  Stars Reese Witherspoon and Ashton Kucher.  We enjoyed it.  However, I then went to Rotten Tomatoes, and saw 31%/38%.  What a surprise.  It was weak, but somewhat entertaining.
• #2  The Woman King, starring Viola Davis and John Boyega.  I have avoided it because....well, just because.  Checked Rotten Tomatoes and saw fabulous 94/99 ratings.  I guess I now need to see this.  A historical action drama about an all-female warrior unit that protected the West African kingdom on Dahomey during 17th-19th century.  This film was set in the 1820's, with Davis as a general.  An all-women production, also including Maria Bellow, who helped sell the concept with co-producer Cathy Shulman, Polly Morgan as cinematographer, Dana Stevens screenplay, and directed by Gina Prince-Bythewood.

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  #3  Two Guns, starring Denzel Washington and Mark Wahlberg, which I avoided because Rotten Tomatoes only gave it 64/66 scores.  About Washington and Wahlberg working undercover as members of a narcotics syndicate in Mexico.  Has done well in the theaters.
• Four of the next six are animated.  I was tempted by #7 You People, starring Jonah Hill and Eddie Murphy, but Rotten Tomatoes gave it 42/35, so probably not for me.

Yesterday, Wired reported on the 11 Best Amazon Prime Movies Right Now.  They're all free if you have a subscription.  Not in any order, except perhaps showing my inclination to possibly watch:

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  Shotgun Wedding, with Jennifer Lopez and Josh Duhamel, plus also Cheech Marin.  Unfortunately Rotten Tomatoes gave it 44/52 scores.
• Respect, with Jennifer Hudson, Forest Whitaker, Marlon Wayans and Audra McDonald., about the rise Aretha Franklin.  RT:  68/95.  I might see this because such a high audience score usually omens well.
• Nanny, with no one you know, said to be a psychological horror fable.  RT:  90/67.  Normally I side with the audience, so might skip this one.

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  Licorice Pizza, about falling love in San Fernando Valley of 1973.  Sean Penn and Bradley play minor roles.  RT:  91/66.  Another one loved by reviewers.  I might also miss this one.
• There are a lot of older films in this list.

To close, a photo of my blooming Honohono Orchids.

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