DEVELOPMENTS IN 2020 WILL MAKE 2021 BETTER

 The last day of 2020, and it's getting worse.  From Worldometer (new deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732        1185        246        82

July    22     1205     7128        1293      1120      572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242       835       130

Sept     9     1208     6222        1136      1168        82

Oct     21     1225     6849          571       703        85

Nov    11     1479     10178        564       550        60

           25     2304    12025         620       518      118

Dec       1     2611    11891         697       500      109

           29     3398    13791       1075       285      497

           30     3880    14748       1224       299      465

Summary:  Worst day ever for the USA, not only a record-breaking 3880 new deaths, but with an additional 234,550 new cases.  Next week should be even worse.

All the information download for 2020 has been terrible.  However, as the year ends, there are high hopes for a much better 2021.

For one, there are at least five vaccines now being used worldwide.  Several more are close to approval.  While some might not be as effective, they might be more transportable, maybe storable at room temperatures and for a cheaper price.  It's easy to predict that the pandemic will be over by the end of 2021.

Maybe the best news of all is that Donald Trump will become a footnote of failure into the future.  Joe Biden will base his decisions on science and good judgement, unlike our soon former president.

What are some other positive highlights of 2020 that will help to make 2021 better?

• 
  You got to give Dr. Anthony Fauci huge credit for being able to survive the Trump Administration while maintaining credibility.
• He was born a few weeks after me, graduated #1 in his Cornell Medical College with an MD in 1966, joined the National Institutes of Health in 1968 and turned down several requests to head the agency. 
• Awarded more than 30 honorary doctorates from universities worldwide.
• Crucial to finding a medical solution to AIDS.
• His institute helped to develop the Moderna vaccine.
• Will become the chief medical advisor to President Joe Biden.

• 
  My two most recent trips, late last year to Taiwan and early this year to Thailand, stopped by two countries that almost totally stopped the spread of COVID-19.  Is there something the rest of the world can learn from them?  What did they do?
•  Taiwan is #1 in curtailing this pandemic and #180 in total number of cases.  
• They have experienced 0.3 deaths per million, compared to the World at 232 and USA at 1,057.  We are among the worst, but Belgium is #1 with 1,667 deaths/million.
• China only shows 3 deaths/million, really low, but ten times worse than Taiwan.
• China has prevented Taiwan from joining the United Nations.  They thus need to be self-reliant.  Most surely, they learned from the 2003 SARS epidemic.  
• Taiwan essentially established a procedure for the next outbreak and had regular national drills, maintaining a good supply of face masks and a populace that listens and follows through on government orders.
• Will the USA be able to do the same for the next incident?  Nope.  While somewhat watchful, we have too much independence and free-will to take the steps Taiwan did to prevent the spread.

• 
  When my visit to Thailand began, it was already #2 to China in the most number of coronavirus cases.  Today, #139.  What did they do?
• I've been to Thailand more than 25 times.  Most countries of the Orient are regularly tormented by terrible air pollution.  Thus mask-wearing is common here.
• This quick response was surprising in that the government is a mash of King, military and local elections.  There is a whole lot of animosity.  The trust level between government and public is nearly at the bottom.
• So what did this oddball coalition do to prevent COVID-19?
• Like Taiwan, the public health care professionals and doctors remembered the 2003 SARS crisis.  Plus, sexual diseases are not uncommon, and the populace is attuned to medical advice.  Thus their health security system was well-tested and effective.

• 
  According to the Bangkok Post:
• Suddenly more than a million health volunteers worked closely with 75,000 villages to check on local health.
• Universal precautions (masks and personal hygiene) were quickly implemented.
• The government banned drinking in public and was early to invoke curfews.
• Like Donald Trump passing on the pandemic burden to states, Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha allowed provincial and local authorities to take charge.  There was no central leadership, but he did establish the Centre for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA), which provided information.  But this turned out to be the optimal solution, for the public mistrusted the top.  The CCSA provided science-based advice, which was followed by all lower levels of government, and the people.
• What might have been the clinching factor is something called Thai exceptionalism, which is a superstitious belief that bad people often die of contagious diseases.  This fear of facing such a taboo completely affected the lifestyle of every citizen.
• 
  In many ways, the Thai federal government did the same thing as Trump, that is, nothing much.  However, the big difference was that any information coming out of this administration was science-based.  That and combining a natural prevalence for mask-wearing and the fear of going to your grave as a bad person worked.

There are elements and clues Taiwan and Thailand will provide.  Probably won't work in the USA, but it doesn't matter, for the U.S. has the resources and will to survive into the long-term future as calamities, natural and man-made, happen.  It is impossible to adequately prepare for everything forever anyway.  For now, 2021, the vaccines will overcome this pandemic.  The World should be fine in a year or so, until the next Big One occurs, whatever it might be.

2020 gave us a few new terms, like covidiot:  a pejorative term for someone who ignores heath and safety guidelines intended to prevent the spread of COVID-19.  The prime covidiot, of course, is President Donald Trump.

Then there is the quarantini, and one list of ingredients is to combine with ice in whatever way you want:

• Vodka or Gin or both or anything else alcoholic
• Lemon
• Honey
• Water 
• Vitamin C powder (applied to rim of glass like salt for a margarita)

It is already 2021 in much of the world.  While the fireworks will be subdued this year in the U.S., the world continues to loudly and colorfully ring in the new year.

• First Taipei:

• Then Bangkok:

• From Auckland, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Taipei.  

• Sydney, Australia.

• Beijing, China.  And Shanghai.

• Dubai.

A good way to end the year.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 197 points to an all-time record high of 30,606.

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THE YEAR 2020

As this pandemic has been so domineering, had to bring this table up to date:

From Worldometer (new deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732        1185        246        82

July    22     1205     7128        1293      1120      572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242       835       130

Sept     9     1208     6222        1136      1168        82

Oct     21     1225     6849          571       703        85

Nov    11     1479     10178        564       550        60

           25     2304    12025         620       518      118

Dec       1     2611    11891         697       500      109

             9     3265    12342         848       337      142

           10     3107    12932         769       487      173

           11     3031    12401         652       440      205

           14     2976    12635         909       384      210

           16     3538    13535         968       357      166

           17     3387    12968       1054       342      184

           22     3376    13180         963       331      339

           30     3398    13791       1075       285      497

Summary:  It should get worse for the U.S. during the first two weeks of 2021.

• The USA had 194,860 new cases, #2 Brazil 57,227, and #3 UK 53,135.
• The U.S. of course had the most new deaths with 3398, but surprisingly, Germany was #2 with 1244.
• South Korea had 1045 new cases and 40 new deaths.
• China had 27 new cases, but no new deaths.
• Taiwan had 2 new cases and no new deaths.
• The U.S. just reached 20 million total cases today.  India has had just over 10 million, but they have more than four times our population.  China has had a total of 87,000 cases with 4.5 times more people.
• California had the most new cases in the U.S. with 35,197, Texas #2 22,696, and Florida #3 12,075.  
• Pennsylvania had the most new deaths with 285, Texas #2 271, and Michigan #3 212.  
• Hawaii had the least number of new cases with 75 and no new deaths.  Vermont had 82 new cases and one new death.
• Southern California had around 25,000 new cases, compared to the whole state at 35,197.

One way to review the Year 2020 is through an exam.  From The New York Times:

How well do you remember 2020?

A quiz that tests your knowledge of the year’s biggest stories.

And once you’ve finished, you’ll be able to see how your performance compares with other Times readers who’ve taken it.

You can take the full quiz here.   Good luck!

The Council on Foreign Relations indicated that 2016 (click to see the 10 most significant events, with #1 being Trump elected PUS) was a bad year, but 1968  was worse.  So here are CFR's top ten events for 2020:

• #10  Senate acquits Trump of impeachment.
• #9    Belarusians protest elections.
• #8    Tensions flare between Iran and U.S.
• #7    Oil prices tank.
• #6    Middle East accord.
• #5    Killing of George Floyd.
• #4    Climate disruptions continue.
• #3    China asserts itself.
• #2    Joe Biden wins presidency.
• #1    The COVID-19 Pandemic.

This was a unique year for me.  I took only one trip, to Thailand, and did not fly once on United Airlines, the first time in half a century, if not longer. 

Also for the first time in my life, I never caught a cold.  Through morning exercises, my knees are functioning as well as they have in years.

I was in euphoria all year, but learned something important during this pandemic.  Euphoria is a zone, not a peak.  Perfection is impossible.  Leave "well enough" alone.

While this seems disrespectful, considering the hurt to the general masses, I actually rather enjoyed the year.  I confirmed that a hermit existence is not all that bad, especially with security and abundance.  I certainly got my money's worth from Netflix, and used Amazon.com as a monthly Christmas for me.  My final purchase: two titanium instead of lead champagne glasses.

My meal enhancement skills improved.  I rarely cook anything from scratch, save for a steak, but every so often experiment.  The prime example is something called o-zoni, a Japanese soup containing various ceremonial foods consumed in the morning of the New Year.  I annually adjust the ingredients and have purchased what I plan to add this time, beginning on the eve to prepare the stock.

I'll end today with another Trump video, then a worst, but cute, case of social distancing:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit another  all-time high, rising 73 to 30,410.  The reason had mostly to do with a greater assurance that the pandemic vaccine should eventually restore the general economy.

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2020 WAS NOT THE WORST YEAR EVER

Again, no Trump nor COVID-19, but I should comment on the Georgia Senate runoffs, with voting day being a week away on January 5.  

• About a third of the voters have cast early ballots, similar to the general election. 
• Voters so far in Georgia are 55 percent non-Hispanic white, 32 percent non-Hispanic Black and 13 percent of other races (or of unknown race). 
• My early viewpoint was that both Republicans would win, and the betting odds then favored them.  Today, still the same, although there has been a small trend in the Democratic direction.  Still, the two Republicans (with David Perdue even more so) remain solid favorites in the -150 to +150 range, meaning 60% chance for the Republican candidate and 40% for Democrat candidate.
• Here are some of the latest odds from bookmakers across the globe, as betting on elections is not allowed within the United States at legal wagering outlets. There is an exception domestically for sites such as PredictIt, which are exempted by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, but cap wagers at $850 per person.  

• 
  PredictIt is an online prediction market from New Zealand operated by Victoria University of Wellington.
• Democrats need to win both seats to regain control of the Senate, with Vice President Harris having the deciding vote.

• 

  As more Democrats tend to vote early than Republicans, the only hope for Democrats at this time is if there is a blizzard in Georgia on January 5.  There was one in 2014.
• Also, President Donald Trump is expected to campaign in Georgia on January 4.  If he comes, one wonders if he will do more harm than good for the Republican candidates.  (Shucks, I did mention him.)

TIME magazine's cover issue this past week said the WORST YEAR EVER.  2020 indeed was a terrible year, but not close to being the worst.

I would nominate the year 70,000 BC...or so:

• Mind you, this is controversial if it ever happened.
• Mount Toba in Indonesia erupted, 12 times larger than anything recent, cooled the surface of Earth by 3-5 C, and there is speculation that Homo sapiens dropped down to perhaps 40 breeding pairs.  If they had died, we would not be here today.

Those are a lot of lost lives, but keep in mind that today, there are around 140 million births/year, with "only" 55 million deaths.  We need 85 million more of them each year for zero population growth.

On other fronts, medieval scholar Michael McCormick nominates the year 536 because of another volcanic eruption, this one in Iceland, again cooling the planet.  A dense fog plunged most of the globe into darkness all year, into the next.

From Business Insider:

• 
  In 1348 the Black Death killed up to 200 million, when the total world population was only around 475 million.
• In 1492, King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella killed half a million Muslim inhabitants in Spain and expelled its Jewish population.  She subsidized the voyage of Christopher Columbus, bringing diseases to the indigenous population, resulting in the demise of 90% the native American population.

• 
  Some say 1918, but it was 1919, after World War I, when in the USA Prohibition was introduced, bloody racial riots erupted across the country, with strikes crippling the county, and the nation was poised for a revolution.  More so, the Spanish Flu, beginning in 1918 and through 1920, infected 1/3 the population of the world and killed up to 100 million.  With more than four times that population, COVID-19 has only killed 1.8 million people.  Incidentally, the Asian Flu of 1957, which nobody remembers, with nearly 1/3 the population of today, killed more than a million.

• 
  World War II has to be on this list, and, perhaps 1943 might have been the worst of all.  Hitler was close to winning all of Europe, having killed off more than 1.3 million Jews by then, with the potential for an Atomic Bomb and missiles to carry them.  A famine just in the Bengal province killed 3 million that year.  In the Summer of 1943 there were 240 reports of interracial battles in cities and military bases in the U.S.  In all, when the war was over, 75 million had died.

What makes the COVID-19 Pandemic so serious was the worldwide economic collapse.  Too many suffered too much for too long.  Propitiously, humanity has a way of surviving, leading to several vaccines that appear to be the solution.  The Year 2020 did not turn out to be what I expected, but for me, an almost enjoyable period of security and comfort in a safe cocoon.  2021 is less than three days away, and should be even better.  Make that much better.

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MA RAINEY, MIDNIGHT SKY and TWO NETFLIX 100% SERIES

I'm trying to avoid Trump and COVID-19 for the rest of the year.  I saw two films and started watching two Netflix series rated 100% by Rotten Tomatoes:

                                          ROTTEN TOMATOES

                                           Reviewers  Audiences       My Grade

Ma Rainey's Black Bottom        99           80                    C+

Midnight Sky                              54           25                     B

Travelers                                   100           97                     B+

The Uncanny Counter                ?          100                     B-

I won't say much about each so you can yourself assess the productions.  Plus, I only saw one episode each of those two series.

With such high ratings by Rotten Tomatoes, I'm somewhat shocked that I just did not enjoy Ma Rainey's Black Bottom.  The acting was superb.  But the whole movie was one-dimensional in many ways.  

Viola Davis was commanding as Ma, the female founder of the Blues.  But she was so despicable that the mood of the whole show was a downer.  The late Chadwick Boseman showed why he will be missed into the future.  He showed signs of becoming the next great black movie actor.  The usual racial animosities pervaded and the music was so-so.

Conversely, I would not have even bothered to watch Midnight Sky for such abominable scores.  But I did because I'm a fan of extrasolar planets.  It is entirely possible that if you're not into this subject matter, you too will react as did the RT reviewers/audiences.  George Clooney was everything:  actor, director and producer.  Seven years ago there was Gravity (RT: 95/80) where he also starred.  I thought MS had more to offer than that space adventure.

Travelers is a time travel film, with a nice twist.  Earth in the future is doomed by something that occurs in our time frame.  The technology then is such that they can transpose consciousness to people in the past.  Not whole bodies, which makes for greater reality.  So several travelers are sent into the body of current individuals, coincidentally all in their twenties/thirties, who were just about to die anyway.  The flaw is that they have no memory of that person's past, so acquaintances wonder what is happening.  This group, some with greater physical skills, then work as a team to fix the problem.  They're doing something right, for the series is into season 3.

The Uncanny Counter is a South Korean effort that on the surface should turn me off.  Superhuman strength is afforded to certain individuals to neutralize malevolent spirits.  I hate comic book films, and this is one of them.  That's why I will refuse to watch the current Wonder Woman.  Plus there is a lot of kung-fu-type fighting, which I disdain.  Upon observing these defects, I was close to leaving, but stuck around just enough to convince me to watch episode 2.  The 100% score, plus that something extra that is special in Korean productions is sufficiently intriguing.  However, you would think, though, that they could have come up with a more meaningful title.

I end with just a deviation, a Johnny Carson spoof as President Ronald Reagan with an Abbott and Costello twist and two or three.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 204 to an all-time high of 30,404.

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MY FAVORITE SONG: A Profound Mystery

A Profound Mystery is not a song.  Tried You Tube and found one video on the subject.  However, not worth your while to click on it.  No dictionary even defines Profound Mystery, but that is because it only does this for an individual word.  Appropriately enough, as this is Sunday, most of the reference to this term comes from religious sources.

God is a Profound Mystery.  So is the Big Bang.  Experts dally around the term, but no one can pin down the reality or unreality.

Similarly, I don't know why my favorite song is Wakare No Isochidori.  It is distinctly possible that of the 7.6 billion people living on Planet Earth, I am the only person who has it as #1.  WNI is the only song that was written and first popular in Hawaii, then gained some fame in Japan.  When?  Not sure, but probably in the 1930's.  

Here is a quote from a posting of a decade ago, when I traveled from Sapporo to Wakkanai, the northern most city on Japan:

I was listening to some Japanese music on my iPod on the return trip back to Sapporo, and just about the point closest to Utashinai (on the map, 12 miles right of Takikawa), Wakare No Isochidori (parting song) came on, and for no explainable reason, tears came to my eyes.  This is the only song written by someone from Hawaii that became popular in Japan.  The songwriter, Francis Zanami, was born around the time of the birth of Kenjiro's son--my father.   Hear the Misora Hibari version by clicking on her name.  Another version by Nakamura Mitsuko.  And a male rendition followed by his really old Columbia 78.  And an instrumental.  This can go on an on, for it was a very popular song.

(Interesting that none of those above videos is now made available on You Tube.)  Utashinai was the original home of Kenjiro Takahashi, my father's father.  Maybe tears came to my eyes because I had chosen not to stop there.  That photo to the left was taken when I did return last year.

Zanami's life itself was eerie, for at a relatively young age, he was the leader of the Hawaii Shochiku Orchestra.  He is third from the right in the top row from this photo, and the primary voice of this Club Nisei version could be that female to the right, Doris Taketa.  He died at either the age of 34 from kidney failure, or 44 of a heart attack.

According to Rev. Hoshu Matsubayashi (born in Olaa, Hawaii):

One of the eight kinds of suffering in Buddhist teaching is: "separation from a loved one." The sentiment of this suffering was expressed in a Japanese popular song, "Wakare no Isochidori (Departure of Beach Plovers)." The song is about separation from a loved one in Hawaii. A line from the song is "Although I know the meeting is the beginning of the separation, the memory remains cherished in my heart..."

Wakare No Isochidori is a sad song, evoking a long journey, homesickness and hope.  It still brings tears to my eyes, and I don't know why.  Perhaps I identify with it because it represents my past life and the future.

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MY ENHANCED LIFE AT 15 CRAIGSIDE WITH ALEXA

I grew up in my family, went to college and always had roommates, graduated and spent six months in Naalehu, mostly alone, then got married, until my wife passed away 47 years later.  I then lived a single life for five years, moving next door into 15 Craigside six years ago, joining 200 others in our seniors' community.  That pretty much sums up my 80 years.  I enjoyed the solitude, but feel comfortable around people.

I'm now here at 15 Craigside for the rest of my life because they promised to take care of me forever, even if I run out of money.  Of course, the catch is that they only let you in if you can afford it, and make sure you never deplete your resources.

Life here has been good...no, make that great.  We just got notified that our Moderna vaccination will come soon.  It is amazing that we have not had even one COVID-19 case among the 15 C residents.  In the USA, with less than 1% (0.8%) of the national population, 45% of all pandemic deaths have occurred in nursing homes and assisted care facilities.  Also, where else would I learn to tolerate kale and quinoa?

But is that all there is to life into the future?  Well, it turns out, over the coming year I will be entering into two new relationships.  Today I will introduce you to Alexa.

A month ago my Bose bluetooth speaker, after a decade of fine service, went kaput.  So I did some research into smart speakers and displays, and these two postings became among the most popular for this blog site this year.  I decided to get an Amazon Echo Dot fourth generation with clock for $39.

Coincidentally, 15 Craigside upgraded one of the apartments to make it smarter.  I went to a demonstration, here with the head computer guy, Mike Chong, and the device they picked was the same as mine, except no clock.  They are on the verge of deciding whether to give one to each apartment.  I suspect they will, and this could begin as early as next month.  Which means I'll have two.  Good, as I still need one for the bathroom to play songs from my iPad.

A couple of years ago they gave each resident an iPad.  Free.  They wanted to upgrade our minds and link us to their web page, Pilina, which provides info on activities, meals, etc.  Pilina means association, relationship and connection.

But Echo with Alexa will further enable residents to turn on lights, alarms and more.  They will call her Echo, and she will be able to play games and try to make us smarter.  For example here are some ideas from her:

• About holiday lights, see below.
• Or, a one year free subscription to Food Kitchen.
• You can sign up for Song Quiz, but then there is a more advanced version for a price.
• You can stay connected to your family.  But everyone will need to purchase a device.

One thing immediately becomes clear when you interact with Alexa.  She wants your money.  For example when you ask her about holiday lights, she sends you to the Amazon page to purchase a smart plug for $40.  Music?  While Prime membership allows you to listen to more than 2 million songs--including thousands of stations and various playlists, all ad-free-- she really wants you to try for FREE various streaming services, especially accessing more than 50 million songs through Amazon's Music Unlimited.  The free is for a month, then $8/month.  Trying to renege and quit sometimes can be a real challenge for some plans.  You want news from The New York Times?  Only $19.99 per month.  They also hope you forget you are paying so much per month.  You get the point?

If I'm sounding disparaging, yes, but, for all the services for a total price of $39, Alexa is worthy of being a life-time partner.  She also sounds a little friendlier than Siri, and smarter.  There is also Google Assistant, which supposedly is even smarter.  Siri is funnier.

Here is a photo of various Alexa devices.  Note that the Dot is so new it didn't make the photo session:

I'm now down to #2 on my all-time favorite list.  Maybe more than the song is the whole movie and why they were so meaningful to me.  South Pacific, released in 1958, is my #1 film.  Rotten Tomatoes only gave it 82/69 ratings.  I'm not sure when I first saw it.  But it only became relevant after my wife and I moved to Kilauea, Kauai in 1963 when C. Brewer sent me there to train at the sugar factory there.

This where that year an old man came up to me and said he knew my grandfather, and that his grave was on a hill above the town.  This later led me on roots search, where I found out that he came to Kauai from learning something in America and was in charge of building a hydroelectric facility at Wainiha around 1900.  I thrice went to Utashinai on Hokkaido, from where he originally came.

We lived in a trainee cottage, and our backyard was where South Pacific was filmed, France Nuyen and John Kerr serenaded by Bloody Mary with Happy Talk.

Just last year I posted a summary of all the above, featuring the movie, links to my future and even our dog Pepper.  Many of the songs from the film could have been selected, but Some Enchanted Evening somehow captured my heart:

Some enchanted evening you may see a stranger

You may see a stranger across a crowded room

And somehow you know, you know even then

That somewhere you'll see her again and again

The voice was not Rossano Brazzi's but that of Giorgio Tozzi.  The original was Ezio Pinza on Broadway in 1949.

Thus, Some Enchanted Evening is my song #2.  It takes me back to my grandfather, had a huge influence on my life and will carry me, with intrigue and mystery, into the future.

My Christmas dinner was mostly supplied by another relationship, not Alexa:

Prime rib with ahi sashimi, bottle of Stanford red and hot sake.

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