WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF YOU DYING FROM COVID-19?

 From Worldometer (new deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9     1093     4732       1185        246        82

July    22     1205     7128       1293      1120       572

Aug    12     1504     6556       1242        835       130

Sept     9      1208    6222        1136      1168        82

Oct     21     1225     6849         571       703         85

Nov    11     1479     10178         564       550        60

           17     1615     10502       676      472        118

           18     1964      10970      754       587       124 

           19     2065     10758       644       584       115

           25     2304     12025       620       518       118

           30     1238       8291        317       482        58

Dec       1     2611      11891       697      500       109

             2     2833     12356        669       498        65

             3     2918     12660        776       570        94

Summary:  Looks like the USA will experience 3000 new deaths some time next week.

So far the World has seen 65.5 million cases and 1.5 million deaths.  Dividing by the global population of 7.6 billion, your odds of being infected with COVID-19 is 0.86%, or less than 1%.  The chances of your death is 0.02%, or one chance in 5000.  

Eventually, the total deaths, when all the waves disappear, should be around double what they are today.  Thus, the World will suffer from 3 million deaths, and the USA around 0.565 million.  Comparing yourself to other Americans, your odds of eventually dying from COVID-19 during the pandemic should be 0.172%, or 1 chance in 581.  

An interesting statistic is that 655,000 Americans die of some heart ailment annually.  Thus, you have a 0.2% chance of dying this year because of your heart, or one chance in 500.  Of course, in both instances, the older you are, the higher this probability.  What I'm trying to say is that for most of you, not to worry about dying from this virus...or your heart.

About the 1918 Spanish Flu, there were 1.8 billion people on Earth then.  500 million became pandemic cases and at least 50 million died.  Some reports say 100 million.  Thus, 28% of the world population contracted this ailment, and, at the 50 million death level, 2.8% died.  Comparing the 0.02% death rate of COVID-19 with the 2.8% of the Spanish Flu, means that there were 140 times more deaths/capita a century ago.  If this current pandemic eventually kills double the current number, as is expected, the death rate would be 70 times fewer per person by next year.

The mortality rate for the Spanish Flu was 10-20%, depending on which total deaths figure was used.  One of the casualties was Donald Trump's grandfather, who died at the age of 49. Looking at the Worldometer data,  the COVID-19 mortality rate is 2.3%. 

•  However, all signs point to this number dropping to less than 1% after all the asymptomatic cases are included.  A similar adjustment should be done for the Spanish Flu, except that no one then bothered with finding the asymptomatic rate.  If similar to the seasonal flu (since the Spanish Flu virus was the H1/N1, which still annually returns as the flu), which is around 50%, then the mortality rate for the Spanish Flu should be in the range of 5%-10%.  
• Similarly, that for this current pandemic should eventually turn out to be 1.15%.  
• Yet, very early calculations seemed to hint that the actual mortality rate for COVID-19 would eventually drop to 0.5%.  For this to actually happen, then the asymptomatic percentage would need to be around 80%.  One sign that this rate could be much higher than currently estimated is the following study of pregnant women, which here shows an asymptomatic rate of 87%!!!

Most medical studies seem to suggest that the asymptomatic rate is from  40%-45%, with Anthony Fauci/CDC currently saying 40%.  Of course, there is a range of asymptomaticity from absolutely no symptoms to very mild, bringing the asymptomatic rate to as high as 62% depending on these details.  Even higher for venereal diseases, as this study says 66%.

I've never seen this from the CDC before, but the below graph indicates that you would be more apt to be infected if you stay in a hotel or motel, versus going to a fitness center or any kind of restaurant:

Grocery stores are safer than restaurants, while gas stations, new car dealers and convenience stores are even safer places to patronize.  Of course, while not shown above, the standard drinking bar or an enclosed room with a lot of people talking to each other, should be worse than a hotel stay.  Yet, at least one report indicates that safe air travel should have a lower incidence of transmission than eating in a restaurants.  However, in consideration of your longevity, it's best to stay at home if you can.

Incidentally, China (this photo was taken in Shanghai on April 7 when they first reported no new deaths for the day) yesterday had 16 new cases and no new deaths, which means that this virus can be stopped without the use of any vaccine.  Thailand had 13 new cases and no new deaths.  Singapore had 9 new cases and no new deaths.  Vietnam had 3 new cases and no new deaths.  Taiwan had one new case and no new deaths.

South Korea, however, had 540 new cases and 3 new deaths.  Japan had 2441 new cases and 41 new deaths.  Everyone wears masks (at Shibuya Crossing everyone is wearing one) there, so, it appears that once COVID-19 takes hold, getting rid of it will  be difficult without a vaccine.

From death to life...WHAT DO YOU KNOW ABOUT THE COMING COVID-19 VACCINES?

• Not sure what roll-out really means, but the current plan is to do just that 24 hours after the FDA authorizes the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine on December 10 and Moderna on December 17.
• The coordination of getting these first 20 million vaccines to states (some coming from foreign countries) at very low refrigerated temperatures, and having the required medical-grade syringes and staffing available with most hospitals already challenged, will need to be remarkable.
• State governors will almost all follow CDC recommendations, giving healthcare workers (21 million) and long-term care residents (2 million, and I think of them is me) top priority.  The former account for 0.5% of all virus deaths, while the latter, a horrendous 40%.  Guess which group will get them first?  Will I?  I absolutely dread injections, but, of course, will, for I don't worry about any long-term effects anymore.
• While everyone keeps saying everything will be free, that is only at the beginning.  At some point, medical plans and financial considerations will pose a problem.
• The biggest hurdle of all is to gain the confidence of the general public, for around half of the polled public at this time have concerns.
• The second shot will probably come next month when more vaccines are made available.
• The Astrazeneca-Oxford vaccine should also be ready by then.  Storage temperature is not a concern and it is much cheaper.
• The next stage?  Probably not you if you're younger and healthy.  You'll need to wait until the Spring.
• It's possible that obese individuals might be at the head of the line, for they're more than double likely to end up in hospitals.  Older and minority essential workers will also receive special consideration.
• At the end of the line will be our youth.
• But by summer, anyone who wants one will get both.
• Schools will reopen next fall like normal.  Spectator sports should return even earlier.
• Have a great weekend.

My favorite song #24 is E Ku'u Morning Dew by the Cazimero Brothers, Robert on bass/piano and Roland on a 12-string guitar.  They started with Peter Moon's band, The Sunday Manoa, including Palani Vaughan and Cyril Pahinui.  Guava Jam in 1969 re-sparked the Hawaiian Cultural Renaissance.

The Brothers officially formed in 1975, and had a female partner who danced the hula, Leinaala Kalama Heine.  We graduated from McKinley High School in 1958.  I had never before heard of them when they came to Washington, DC in 1979 to perform for the Hawaiian congressional group.  I was so impressed that they converted me to like Hawaiian music.

The Cazimeros performed in Carnegie Hall in 1989.  It was a sold-out concert, but possibly because some New Yorkers thought these were The Brothers Karamazov.  The Cazimero's earned 25 Na Hoku Hanohano Awards.  Here is an hour of the Brothers in Concert.  

E Ku'u Morning Dew was written by Eddie Kamae and Larry Kimura for Eddie's wife Myrna, who was from Mapleton, Utah.  Here is Kamae in 2010 singing E Ku'u Morning Dew.

Iz also recorded this song.  He returns tomorrow.

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