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Thursday, March 12, 2020

WHAT ARE SOME POSITIVES ABOUT COVID-19?

The media have done it to the masses again. COVID-19 has infected common sense more than anything else.  This overreaction means entertainment, spectator events, travel, the stock market, schools, name it, have been sacrificed to quarantine Humanity.  The world is now into recession because of a corona virus variant to the SARS 2003 event.

In most ways, the effect of this corona virus is similar to the 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic H1N1 virus, in that they are both very contagious, with the overwhelming initial physical effect being mild, meaning that people so infected pass on the disease to anyone in relatively close contact.  

One major difference is that H1N1 had a death rate of just 0.02%.  COVID-19, maybe as high as 3.4%.  The seasonal flu at 0.1% is 5 times more lethal than H1N1.   However, more than a billion caught H1N1 with as many as 200,000 deaths.  COVID-19 today has 125,000 cases (6729 new from 24 hours ago) with 4613 (321 new deaths from yesterday--when this figure begins to regularly drop, the peak will have been reached, and I expect this to occur when the seasonal flu period ends, which is May at the latest) deaths.  

Keep a watch on the deaths/day statistic, for 321 from COVID-19 is no where near the 3800 that are killed in traffic accidents each day, nor the 1770 that daily die from the seasonal flu (averaged out over the year).  Where do you check for this death/day figure?  Click here (data comes from the World Health Organization, and is updated daily) and look at the top of the right column under "Globally (new deaths)".  During the past 24 hours, for example, only 11 died in China, but 310 outside that country, Italy dominating with 196 deaths.  U.S.?  Only four new deaths, and the country has panicked.  

I wonder why people still drive and that less than half of Americans get the annual flu shot.  If this corona virus can shut down the NBA, cause an economic recession and trigger toilet paper runs, you would think that more would sell their cars and walk (granted, they would still need to cross the street, and there are muggers out there) or catch Uber or the bus or mass transit.  While of course we need to be careful and take precautions, are our priorities making any common sense?

So on this note, I cite some benefits of COVID-19:
  • President Donald Trump got sucker-punched.  Something he least expected has derailed his bid to be re-elected in November.  Read Johan Goldberg's Coronavirus appears to be immune to Trump's powers.  And he is a conservative syndicated columnist.  The economy has sunk to just about where it was when he became President.  The Dow Jones today dropped 10% for its worst day since the 23% drop on 19October1987.  Worse, he is personally being blamed for causing all this economic consternation and cancellations and havoc.  Ironically, I thought he did rather well, blocking off Chinese tourists quite early, now shutting out Europe and leading the cheerleading to avoid panic.  Remember that a total of 29 Americans have succumbed to this corona virus since January.  In  the 2017-18 flu year, 167 Americans died daily from the seasonal flu.  Maybe we should be doing what we are doing now during every flu season.  Bet doesn't happen when COVID-19 dies off.
  • From Bret Jensen:
    • We are not Europe!
    • Only old people are at risk.
    • Myriad companies have announced programs working on new treatment.  Since mid-February, Moderna's stock has quadrupled.  Co-Diagnostics and Gilead Sciences are also doing very well.
    • The Flu Season is almost over.
    • The 30-year mortgage rate has dropped to all-time lows.
  • I can add that, the coronavirus so dampened the economy that in conjunction with the Saudi Arabian - Russian feud on oil prices, gasoline will be much cheaper in the months to come.  Here is a historical chart showing how the price of gasoline (orange, $/gal) tracks the price of petroleum (blue, $/barrel):

What about me?  Well, my Amazon toilet paper rolls arrived, and just in time:


I have stopped going to movies and am beginning to avoid people.  I still go to the dining room for some meals.  The University of Hawaii has curtailed travel and will be going online for classes when the spring semester starts.  Do I stop participating in meetings?

I have certainly saved a lot of time and now can include Netflix into my daily agenda.  I bought a new two-microphone karaoke system and can fiddle around with it for awhile.  The message here is that companies involved with your doing things at home will benefit from COVID-19.

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