Let start with today's Worldometer data on COVID-19:
About the key statistic: new deaths over the past 24 hours:
March 18 March 19 March 20 March 21
China 11 8 3 7
Italy 475 427 627 793
Iran 147 149 149 123
Spain 105 165 213 285
Germany 2 15 15 15
USA 41 21 18 32
China has stabilized below 10 deaths/day. Italy and Spain are getting worse. Germany has had 15 deaths/day for three straight days. The USA showed an increase.
There are now 303,443 cases with 12,964 deaths, an increase of 1584 from yesterday. The day before this figure was 1352, so there is continuing growth. I'm a bit more pessimistic today.
How does the COVID-19 Pandemic compare with the 1918-19 Spanish Flu (H1N1 virus)? One third of the world population caught this disease and at least 50 million died, including 675,000 Americans. In 1918 U.S. life expectancy dropped by 12 years. Today, this pandemic, from a coronavirus, has infected 0.04% of the world and killed 12,964.
About the Spanish Flu, a recent theory is that this one perhaps should have been called the Chinese Flu because it first emerged in China, and 25,000 laborers were exported to Europe in 1918 through Canada. About 3,000 were quarantined in Canada for "symptoms." When the remainder got to Europe, many were sick and hundreds were dying.
The reason why it was called the Spanish Flu is that much of Europe was in wartime censorship and Spain did not strictly adhere to the norm. In a two-week period this H1N1 virus infected 100,000 in the country, including King Alfonso XIII.
What was the general advice? Social distancing and consuming cinnamon, wine and beef broth. Healthcare workers ran short of masks, and medical students replaced dying doctors. Sort of like today. Families had to dig their own graves and farms could not harvest crops.
The most recent pandemic, the Swine Flu of 2009-10, was also caused by the H1N1 virus. It was so-called not because it came from pigs, but they were killed in large numbers. Up to 575,400 died globally. Interesting that 80% of deaths occurred to those younger than 65. Older people survived well. There is now a swine flu vaccine, which is included in those annual shots you get in the Fall.
Keep in mind that up to 650,000 deaths occur from the seasonal flu annually. I get criticized for this, but I need to again say that 1,250,000 people die in traffic accidents annually, or 3,287/day, and we still drive. Although I am seriously thinking of getting rid of my car. The total world deaths over the past four months from COVID-19 is 12,964, and probably will double or triple, but soon be checked because of those draconian hunker down edicts, the only solution today until an effective vaccine can be developed. Over the past 24 hours, China has had 7 deaths, South Korea 8, Singapore 2, Japan 1, Hong Kong 0, Israel 0, Russia 0 and India 0.
How vulnerable are you? The global figure for cases per million population is 38.9. Thus, those so infected today represent one in 25,707 living on Planet Earth. To die from the coronavirus? So far, one chance in 593,952. Even if deaths jump by a factor of 10 to 129,640, there is only a 59,395 to one chance that it will be you. Would you go to a race track and bet on a horse whose odds are 1 in 59,395? Who would put money on anything (unless you have inside info) at 1:100 odds? Feel safe because you are.
On that note, I went shopping yesterday without even a mask. It was more than three weeks since I returned from Thailand, so I again felt compelled to reward my body for keeping me alive and well. We need to get our temperature checked daily here at 15 Craigside. I have averaged 97.4 F.
After returning from Marukai, as the municipal golf courses are all closed, I thought, for the first time in three years, I'd use the 15C exercise facility:
Half an hour on that machine. Tomorrow, maybe 45 minutes. I also haven't bothered to take any of those exercise classes since I dropped out of Tai Chi a few years ago. But the Better Balance class caught my attention:
My neighbor John and I plan to golf at Ko Olina on Monday. I got a call from that golf course this morning and they indicated that we are okay, but they're shutting down on Tuesday.
I take a bath after anything physical...with a drink:
Also collected my choices for dinner:
So these are what I bought for my dinner:
This was supposed to be the 100th Anniversary of the Kamehameha Schools Song Fest. However, the event was cancelled for fear of the pandemic. So they showed highlights of past performances. I knew all the songs of the earlier events. From the year 2000 the students mostly featured esoteric compositions that I never heard before. Of course, their alma mater, Sons of Hawaii, and fight song, Imua Kamehameha, thankfully, kept returning.
I've got to say something about this 1997 Ridge Cabernet Sauvignon:
If you can find it, it sells for around $200. When I opened it, it was so old that I filtered the contents.
At first taste, the wine was drinkable, but only barely. However, through the two-hour meal, it got better and better, and by the end, there was a fragrant bouquet with a full-bodied complex finish. I've heard this can happen, but this was the first time any wine I drank did this. I wonder what it will do tomorrow, for I did not use much of that bottle.
Finally, I was watching Maui Mayor Victorino on TV, and noticed that he was not properly wearing his face mask. His nose was showing:
By the way, have you noticed those sign language ladies? They're usually female. I remember way back when Mike Bloomberg was Mayor of New York City, he had the best ones.
Let me close with photos of my flowers and herbs. Nice to have them around in my virtual seclusion.
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