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Monday, January 25, 2016

HOW WILL BLOOMBERG AFFECT THE PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN?

Here are the current pre-Bloomberg betting odds for the U.S. Presidential Campaign:

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Odds as of January 22 at Bovada
  • Hillary Clinton EVEN
  • Donald Trump +200
  • Bernie Sanders +350
  • Marco Rubio +1000
  • Ted Cruz +1400
  • Jeb Bush +3300
  • Chris Christie +5000
  • John Kasich +5000
  • Carly Fiorina +12500
  • Ben Carson +20000
A good site to convert odds and chances is Online Gambling.  In case you were wondering, it is legal to bet on this race.  Time and again I've found these betting odds more reliable than political pundits.  

What do those numbers mean?  Chances of become President of the USA:
  • Hillary Clinton          50%          1 chance in 2
  • Donald Trump          33.3%       1/3
  • Bernie Sanders        22%          2/7
  • Marco Rubio              9%          1/10
  • Ted Cruz                    7%          1/14
This should have added up to something just under 100%, so while something is wrong somewhere, the relativity is about right.

So now we have the possibility of Michael Bloomberg running as an Independent Party candidate.   Oh, no, three from New York City.  He was a Democrat before becoming a politician, but in 2001 ran for New York City Mayor as a Republican just weeks after the September 11 terrorist attack.  He won a second term as a Republican in 2005, but prevailed in 2009 for a third term as an independent.  He is worth $41 billion, ten times wealthier than Trump, making Bloomberg the 7th richest in the U.S. and 13th in the world.  He is Jewish and 73-years old.

Hillary (68, native of Chicago, but represented New York as a Senator) responded by saying that  "He is a good friend of mine," and:

The way I read what he said is if I didn't get the nomination, he might consider it. Well, I'm going to relieve him of that and get the nomination so he doesn't have to.

Said Donald Trump: (69, a year older than Hillary, from New York City):

I would love it. I know Michael very well, I'd love to compete against Michael.

Bernie Sanders (74, grew up in Brooklyn and is an Independent Senator) remarked:

....what I have been saying for a long time.  This country is moving away from democracy to oligarchy.
That would be something if we end up on November 8 with two Independent candidates to match the Democrat and Republican.  While Bloomberg's similar sentiments would hurt Clinton more than any Republican, that two or three to one gender advantage of Hillary would be more than sufficient to elect her.  I once ran against three females and won in a stunning upset.  


Tonight, the three Democratic candidates will participate in a Town Hall setting for CNN at 9PM EST (4PM in  Hawaii).  The early voting begins in Iowa a week from today, followed by New Hampshire on February 9.  On the Republican side, Rick Santorum won in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008.  You begin to think, then, that maybe these initial results are irrelevant.  They both are in the bunch this year and should drop out after this vote.  Sanders and Clinton are close enough not to know for sure at this point, and so are Cruz and Trump.

New Hampshire is a bit insane and must have a thousand potential candidates, who were selected in the first official primary when the state met this month to set the slate.  New Hampshire has had the first presidential primary since 1916 and did not want Iowa to jump ahead of it.  If this confuses you, who cares, but if you really want to better understand this ridiculous process, read Wikipedia.  And feel free to be further discombobulated by linking to BallotPedia.  Anyway, New Hampshire again goes to the polls on February 9.  Trump and Sanders should prevail here.  While Bloomberg said he will wait until March to make any official move, he will be encouraged after New Hampshire.

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