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Monday, September 10, 2012

WHY BARACK OBAMA WILL SERVE A SECOND TERM

Yes, I'm a Democrat, although I have Republican proclivities, especially the free market/choice part.  But I abhor their policies on energy, the environment, financing and the poor to middle class.  Also, I like Barack Obama, with my initial Huffington Post article suggesting his best hope for a true legacy.  While the final sentence seemed somewhat sarcastic, I don't hold it against him for graduating from Punahou High School.

Thus, here are the reasons why Barack Obama will beat Mitt Romney on November 6:

1.  Romney is a Mormon.  Obama is a Christian.  Seventy six percent of Americans are Christian.  Hate to play the racial card at the outset, but that is the reality.  When John Kennedy became president, he was the very first Roman Catholic to prevail.  However, a quarter of Americans are Catholics, while less than 2% are Mormons.  The danger to Republicans is that a few percentage (perhaps five to ten %) of them will find a reason not to even bother to vote because in their heart they just don't want to vote for a Mormon.  Thus, the final results will show in the Congressional campaigns.  I would not be surprised if Democrats win back both houses.  One survey, anyway, showed Democrats winning the House.  And this poll was taken last year.  The Republicans basically lost their chance in the Senate when Congressman Todd Akin (left, R-Missouri) chose to continue his campaign in the face of his stupid gaffe on rape.  The incredibility of this all is that, despite later demurral, he probably continues to believe what he said.  Supporters of Claire McCaskill (right, D-Missouri) are keeping as quiet as possible until September 25 so as not to discourage him.











2.  I can't believe that there is a sufficient number of rich people to vote Romney into office.  Remember, there are only about, oh, 1%, of them.  However, the American voting public reminds me of sheep.  They watch a TV ad and actually believe what is being said.  A sum of $5.6 billion was spent in the 2008 presidential/congressional campaigns.  I have no reference on this one, but I would not be surprised if the total this year reaches $10 billion.  Why?  The rich are desperate against Obama and focused on gaining total control of Congress.  They were given an open door by the U.S. Supreme Court decision legalizing super PAC's and other spending interests who DON'T need to disclose their donors.  Sheldon Adelson himself has indicated a willingness to spend $100 million against Obama.  As he is worth $25 billion, that's less than one half of one percent of his riches. All that said, Obama himself will be sufficiently supported by his billionaires (like Warren Buffett to the right) to neutralize the Republicans.

3.  By a reasonably significant margin, more women will vote for Obama.  As they represent half the voters, this difference alone should be enough.  However, it all depends on who is polled and what organization does it.  Lifetime Television (a women's channel) recently gave Obama 52% to Romney's 36%.  However, Obama got 56% the women vote over McCain four years ago, and all recent evidence, possibly due to Obamacare, show Romney maybe even pulling even.  Even if this vote is split, and it won't, for Obama should edge ahead here, all the other reasons should be sufficient.

4.  Americans trust neither Romney nor Obama on the economy.  Most polls show Romney as the favorite here, and the economy is more important than anything else, but the argument that the Republicans started this all, and show no new ideas, will neutralize this issue.  If the unemployment rate drops to 7.9% in the October release, that will insure it for Obama.  Even if it increases only a tenth or two, that should not be dissuasive.  It would be ideal for Obama if the Dow Jones stays above 13,000 and doesn't sink below 10,000.  Remember, the Dow dipped as low as 6457 soon after he was inaugurated, so, one way of looking at our economy is that our economy doubled during Obama's reign.


5.  Obama has a huge edge on foreign policy.    Normally, Republicans have the advantage here.  However, after the pullout of Iraq and Afghanistan, and the assassination of Osama bin Laden (this is a confirmed fake photo--the U.S. has yet to release an official one), this issue is all Obama's.  Also, neither Romney nor Paul Ryan has any experience in this field.  None of the four ever served in the military, but Joe Biden was at least chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

6.  Energy and the environment are two topics favoring Obama.  One of my Huffington Post articles was called:

Why Do Republicans Like Fossil Fuels and Not Care That Much for the Environment?



Trend: How much do you personally worry about global warming?

My current views about renewable energy are closer to that of Republicans than green Democrats, but the average voter has some conscience about the environment, feel insecure about fracking and drilling in environmentally sensitive coastal regions, and don't trust oil and coal companies.  While, yes, we should produce more domestically, the reality is that we now import less oil than we did than four years ago (although the depressed economy had a lot to do with that).  Romney's energy policy shows a disdain for renewable energy.

7.  Obama easily wins the Hispanic, Black and Asian vote.  

In a FOX poll, Obama had it 6 to 1 over Romney with Hispanics.  Gallup has 91% of blacks voting for Obama.  About three-quarters of Asians support Obama.  But America is 72% white.



Two months ago I showed you how to bet on the London Olympics.  Today is a tutorial on how to use moneyline as the parameter for betting.  You can click on this to learn the mathematics.  Let me just show you some examples:

Chances of winning     Moneyline    Fractional

75%                                  -300               1/3
67%                                  -200               1/2
50%                               +/-100               1/1
33%                                 +200               2/1
25%                                 +300               3/1

Betting Source             Obama           Romney

Gambler's Palace             -240              +210
Brovada                           -205              +165
PoliticalBettingOdds        -190              +155

Average                            -212              +177

Thus, there is a greater than 67% chance that Obama will gain re-election.  First, a minus number means you're favored to win.  Thus, if you bet $212 for Obama to win, you will get back $312 (your $212 plus $100).  If you placed $100 on Romney, your total winnings will be $277 (your $100 plus $177).

Every swing state, Colorado, Florida (-170/+140), North Carolina, Ohio (-240/+190), Virginia, Wisconsin), is currently favoring Obama in Political Betting Odds.com.

Some campaign for their candidate, some provide a lot of money.  Most don't bother to do either.  Considering how important your time is to you, are you willing to waste this precious commodity (time) helping an individual who has less than a 40% chance of winning, if your were for Romney?  Would you bet $100 with a greater than a 67% chance of losing it?  Gambling represents reality, thus, I can comfortably predict that Barrack Obama will serve a second term.

One potential indicator could well help Romney.  If the Dow Jones Industrials Average slips from Labor  to Election Day, the incumbent usually loses.  An increase insures victory.  Over the past 112 years, this simple barometer has been right 25 out of 28 times.  The lofty 13,000+ level maintained recently could quite easily drop with any kind of crisis, real or perceived.  The smart bettor would look very closely at this figure.

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There is a tropical depression in the Pacific east of the Philippines that will become a typhoon and head towards Okinawa, with landfall expected this weekend.

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