In 1998, when Brent traded not far off $10 per barrel, forecasters were confident that gasoline would soon be given free with new cars. In 2007 a common view was that crude oil would soon trade up to $200 per barrel if not higher.
The right column, daily, provides the price of gasoline and WTI crude oil price. Here below are the two historic prices of oil (BLUE--price, and RED--in 2011 dollars)
USA is the Saudi Arabia of shale oil. Just the Green River Formation has more oil shale than the rest of the world combined. At $60/bbl, most of these American operations, plus Canadian tar sands (cost: $74/bbl), will stop production. The cost to produce a bbl of fracked American oil is as amorphous as an amoeba. Production/exploration costs range from less than $25/bbl to more than $100/bb. However, if you include the need for profit, etc., a range of $70-$95/bbl could well be reasonable. The cost of exploration and production of Middle East oil is $16.88/bbl.
Liquid fossil fuel production in the USA peaked in 1970, but could well rise to the same level next year:
However, nothing grows forever:
Someone tell Saudi Arabia not to get so paranoid abut the USA.
Houston and Port Arthur are in Texas. Oh, I get it, the oil would then be trucked or piped to Louisiana refineries.
Russia especially will suffer, for its depressed ruble is already under threat, and 45% of the current national budget is drawn from oil taxes.. Ask any of your friends which county produces the most oil and you will not get this correct answer in bbl/day:
#1 Russia 10,053,800
#2 Saudia Arabia 9,693,200
#3 USA 7,442,200
#4 China 4,372,000
However, the USA is the #1 producer of oil PLUS natural gas liquids, at 11 million bbls/day. In 2010 the U.S. passed Russia on natural gas production.
Super Typhoon Hagupit is now merely Typhoon Hagupit at 145 MPH, and will weaken to a Category 1 before passing about midway between Manila and Tacloban (struck by that devastating Super Typhoon Haiyan last year):
Manila and Tacloban are a little more than 500 miles apart.