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Monday, April 21, 2014


THIS IS A RECENT ADD ON (26April2014--click on it to expand view):

It is now 45 days since Malaysian Air 370 disappeared.  There is a growing fear that this craft might never be found.  For the record, those black boxes from the flight now the focus of attention are colored orange, and there are two of these.

Nearly a month ago I posted on:

At that time, the weight of information was 99% certainty that the plane crashed in the South Indian Ocean, a thousand miles or so west of Australia.  Apparently, searchers focused on:

After reviewing radar track data from neighboring countries, officials have concluded that the passenger jet curved north of Indonesia before turning south toward the southern Indian Ocean.

This was the beginning of the period when satellite data, primarily from FranceJapan and Thailand detected debris in various suspected locations.  Then a plane, plus a ship, from China, saw and picked up flotsam that, it turned out, had no link to the flight.  Thus, disappointment #1 was a lot of junk at sea but no connection to MAS 370.

Disappointment #2 began two weeks ago when a Chinese ship thought it detected two pings from a black box.   A couple of days later, the HMS Echo from the United Kingdom said it heard four pings.  This was followed by one last ping received by the Ocean Shield, an Australian navy vessel carrying some U.S. listening equipment.  The Chinese and Australian sounds are now being discredited.  What terrible timing, as the batteries of the black boxes were just just about running out of juice when these hopeful pings were heard.

Disappointment #3 is, thus far, the inability of Bluefin-21, an autonomous underwater vehicle, to find anything.  Again we are faced with the end limits, as the search area could be close to 15,000 feet deep, which is at the limit of this probe.  Anyway, the undersea search has just begun, and there remains considerable space to cover.

Disappointment #4 is that the oil slick found near the pings turned out not to be aircraft oil or hydraulic fluid.  Thus, not one bit of direct evidence.

Today, there are 11 planes and 12 ships searching the South Indian Ocean surface across 52,000 square miles.  After eight searches, the Bluefin-21 has covered, probably, less than a hundred square miles.  You think this effort could take, maybe, years?  And they're already thinking of giving up in a few days.

Perhaps the time has come to involve those Remus (Remote Environmental Monitoring UnitS) 6000 autonomous underwater vehicles.  They were developed by the Naval Oceanographic Office, the Office of Naval research and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, and found Air France 447 in 2009.  It was, they said, like looking for a needle in a haystack, AND THEY PRETTY MUCH KNEW EXACTLY WHERE THE PLANE CRASHED IN THE ATLANTIC!  The latest Remus AUVs have a depth measuring potential of 6000 meters, thus this designation, or 19,685 feet.  The Bluefin-21 of Phoenix International, contracted to the United States Navy, only has a depth capability of 15,404 feet.

At some point, no doubt, authorities will need to come to grips about whether the data suggesting the Indian Ocean might be flawed, and the plane could be virtually anywhere else, land or sea.  Certainly, that 99% potential of finding MAS 370 has today dropped to perhaps 90%, and continues to fall as zero hard evidence has been confirmed from that location.  Mind you, a racehorse at 1:10 is almost a sure winner, so even at these lower odds, the chances remain good that success should still be reasonably close at hand.

However, the total absence of any concrete linkage brings back the full range of conspiracy theories.  Click on Wikipedia to read this summary.  I had my list, but some of those options were too far beyond the pale to deserve any more mention.  Not trying to rub it in to CNN, but about that "black hole" theory:

Stanford University physics professor Peter Michelson (right), added that if the plane had been swallowed up by a black hole, "a lot of other things would be missing as well," like "probably the Earth." So we can safely put that theory to rest.

The authorities will now, again, take a closer look at discounted input, such as the flaming plane  seen crashing from an oil rig in the South China Seas.  The matter of no mobile phone calls would argue for something dramatic and instantaneous happening, where the flight made this first quick left turn while in the Gulf of Thailand could well be where the plane went down:

Malaysian Air 370 might well become the greatest air mystery ever.

Of some concern is Tropical Cyclone Jack, currently at 90 MPH, projected to bring big waves to the search area:

While the air search has been suspended, apparently the ships will continue their efforts.  Interesting that the only region forming hurricane-like storms over the past month around the globe has been in this general portion of the South Indian Ocean.


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