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Thursday, July 21, 2016

DONALD TRUMP COULD WELL BECOME THE NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE USA...NOT

I saw the following list of polls two days ago, and just could not believe it:

Tuesday, July 19
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort)
Poll
Results
Spread
Trump +1
Clinton +1
Trump +1
These are not FOX, conservative or Trump-sponsored surveys.  The apparent reality is that Donald Trump appears now to be in the lead to become the 45th President of the United States.

But how can this be?  In my mind he has done everything wrong.  Yet, it is disconcerting, but perhaps something is wrong with me.  I live in a country where more than 90% of "us" believe there is a God and, too, a holy place called Heaven.  I don't.

According to Gallup, more than four in ten Americans believe that God created humans in their present form 10,000 years ago, a view that has changed little over the past three decades.  Huh?  What about evolution?  Here I still remain in the minority for only 19% felt that God had no part in the process.  To complete this analysis, 31% thought that we evolved, but with the guidance and hand of God.

So does The Donald have a good point in his quest to Make America Great Again?  Well, not in those two beliefs above, for these percentages were higher in 1776, I think, or even after World War II.

Let me quote from Marie Claire (yes a 79-year old international monthly magazine for women...but most of what I'm posting today is on the edge of being preposterous, and everything said below can be verified):
  • His father had KKK leanings and Donald was expelled from school at the age of 13 and sent to a military academy.
  • Has been married three times, the third to Melania (she was a model), who was naturalized a decade ago, a year after marrying Trump.  Her father was a communist, of course, in Yugoslavia/Slovenia.
  • Some of Trump's statements:
    • Ariana Huffington is unattractive, both inside and out.  I fully understand why her former husband left her for a man--he made a good decision.
    • I will build a great wall--and nobody builds walls better than me, believe me--and I'll build them very inexpensively.  I will build a great, great wall on our southern border, and I will make Mexico pay for that wall. Mark my words.
    • The beauty of me is that I'm very rich.
    • It's freezing a snowing in New York--we need global warming!
    • My fingers are long and beautiful, as, it has been well documented, are various other parts of my body.
I can go on an on, but his reputation seems to have grown after the above.

ViralMozo listed 20 facts Donald Trump wishes we'd forget.  Here is just one:  Trump has been named in at least 169 federal lawsuits.

But enough of that.  Trump's remarks surely has alienated 36% of citizens who are non-white and most women.  Just on these statistics, 68% of Americans would not vote for Trump.  So you say, he has a few hispanic/black women who support him.  Sure, but not all males will vote for him.  By any kind of analysis, Hillary Clinton should be receiving 60% or so of the votes on November 4.  But polls show this is will not be the case.  Why?

Well, there are other issues.  Trump says Clinton is a crook.  Benghazi...e-mails...flaws...but a crook? The point is that she must then be dishonest.  Turns out Trump and Clinton are tied with 57% disapproval ratings.   David Brooks of The New York Times recently wrote:

I understand why Donald Trump is so unpopular. He earned it the old-fashioned way, by being obnoxious, insulting and offensive. But why is Hillary Clinton so unpopular?


Best as I could infer, Hillary is too professional, too networked, too dedicated, too much the workaholic.  Thus, we are easily swayed by Republican allegations that she was the cause of the tragedy that was Benghazi, lied about her computer services and therefore can't be trusted.  You would think that most Americans would see through these political facades.  

But less than a quarter of the public read the newspaper and this is misleading, for here are where we turn to for our daily news:
  • TV  26%
  • Cable news 1%
  • Internet  18%
  • Newspaper  6% (in other words, most read the newspaper NOT for current events)
We are just too busy, lazy or disinterested to keep up with the true facts.  If Donald Trump becomes POTUS #45, we can blame ourselves.

Yet to come are the Democratic Convention (July 25-28 from Philadelphia), the presidential debates and mash of truths and mistruths that will inundate you on television.    In the meantime, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been breaking all-time records for seven of the past trading days and America remains even more supreme than ever.

It thus is not surprising that I feel confident in predicting that Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump, many Republicans just will not show up to vote on November 4 (hey, John Kasich, the governor of Ohio, and Cleveland is in that state,  boycotted this gathering--and Marco Rubio remains in Florida to discuss serious problems with algae blooms) and their stronghold over Congress will be challenged.  Who's that with Hillary?  Read the final paragraph.

The best indicator of reality seems to always come from online gambling.  Current betting odds?

2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - NEXT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES
Odds as of July 19 at Bovada
  • Hillary Clinton -240
  • Donald Trump +200
  • Other +1200
Basically, this means that Hillary with -240 is favored.  If you bet $2.40, you would get back a total of $3.40.  Donald at +200 means that the odds against him are 2:1, or for every dollar risked by betting on him, you could make a profit of $2, for a total of $3 returned your your spent dollar.  The implied probability is that Hillary has a 50% chance of winning, while the Donald has around a 30% chance.

PredictWise indicates that the next president will be Democratic, by a 71% to 29% margin.  More specifically, here is the trend:


Now this is more like it.  Just what my mind kept telling me.  Even more astounding, click on this to see what will happen to the U.S. Senate.  PredictWise says that there is a 70% chance that Tim Kaine will be Hillary's VP and the Chicago Cubs team has a 20% chance of winning the World Series, with the San Francisco Giants at 11%.  Who is David Rothschild and what is PredictWise anyway?  Here's his photo, and he's with Microsoft Research.

In closing, for the sake of our country--and this is being posted before Ivanka Trump introduces her father tonight--I hope she attempts to at least reach out, indicating that we are all for America, laments the mostly negative references to opponents, that Barack Obama has actually done a decent job as President, and that Hillary Clinton is not her enemy, but more so, need her partnership to improve our country.  She has contributed to Hillary in the past and seems to be the most approachable of all the Trumps.


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Hawaii will get some wind and rain from Tropical Storm Darby this weekend, and tracking along behind are Estelle, Frank and a fourth.


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