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Thursday, December 19, 2013

I JUST SOLD ALL MY STOCKS

The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched up 11 to 16,179...yes, another all-time high.  So what did I do today?  I sold all my stocks.  Most of them were purchased during that terrible late 2008 period when the economy seemed to be edging towards depression.  

Recall that on 9October2007 the Dow closed at an all-time high of 14,164.  It took a little more than a year to plummet to 7,552 on 20November2008, then rebounded to 9,035 on 2January2009, before collapsing to 6,595 on 5March2009.


Basically, I doubled my money during this five year run.  My anxiety has now been neutralized and I'll wait until just after the next collapse to re-invest.  When will this happen?  I'm terrible at these predictions, for I expected 2013 to be that crucial down year.  My gut feeling is that this must now be 2014.  However, that is a mid-term election year, so government will do everything possible to avoid anything economically cataclysmic.  Thus, 2015 could well be that fateful time period.

So why did I sell so early?  Stress reduction and my need to re-invest in my future.  In the meantime, I'll enjoy myself in 15 Craigside.  The media calls this a nursing home, but it is much more than that.  However, I'll be nursing whatever sum I gain from selling my apartment next door.

I'm particularly worried about Japan.  Here are two charts:


The Nikkei 225 hit an all-time high of 38,957 on 29December1989 .  After the Fukushima cataclysm of March 2011, the Nikkei bottomed out at 8160 on 25November2011, or 21% of the high.  An equivalent drop of the Dow from 16,179 would be to around 3400.  Since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took office at the end of last year, the Nikkei has jumped from 9,924 to 15,780.  Remarkable, considering everything is not going well.  I'd be especially cautious if I owned Japanese stocks.

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Tropical Cyclone Amara is at 120 MPH, but will weaken and turn south before threatening Mauritius:


There is another major storm just east of Amara, Tropical Cyclone Bruce is at 125 MPH, will strengthen into a Category 4, but will also turn south to nowhere:


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