JAPAN TODAY...AND TOMORROW

A little more than a year ago, March 12, to be specific, the day after the Great Tohoku Disaster, I landed at Narita Airport, and took six hours to finally reach my hotel.  The country was in turmoil.

Today, in Tokyo, Osaka and Kyoto, you wouldn't suspect the Japan economy was on the verge of possible collapse.  The best restaurants are filled, tourists flock to the Sakura sites and all seems well.  I will later visit Sendai, and, perhaps Fukushima, so I will get a closer reaction to reality.

It is not difficult to predict that electricity will be a huge problem this summer, as on May 5 all 54 nuclear reactors will be shut down.  The central government is attempting to accelerate the re-approval process, but the local governments are wary.  Still, I expect virtually all these powerplants will be functional by next year.  However, there is absolutely no support for any new nuclear systems.  Japan will just need to import in more fossil fuels.  In 2010, their greenhouse gas emissions went up 4.2%, just the opposite of the 6% they needed to reduce to meet their Kyoto Protocol requirement.

The population of Japan dropped by 259,000 last year.  There remain 128 million people, but nearly a quarter of the population is 65 and older.  This very high percentage compares to other aging countries like Germany and Italy, with "only" 20% in this old category.  This figure for the USA is 13%.  The population pyramid of 2050 shows the 65+ group up to 40% in Japan.  In 2100, the projected population is shown to be down to 67 million, where it was in 1932.

Perhaps Japan should borrow the South Korean solution.  The number of foreign brides marrying Korean males is up to 210,000.  About one-third of rural men marry non-Koreans through marriage brokers.  While the current population of South Korea is 49 million, interesting that 10 million ethnic Koreans live overseas.

The Japanese government is also wrestling with the problem of what to do with the 220,000 tons of partially radioactive debris from the Great Tohoku disaster.  Rachel Maddow has a video clip on the Japanese radioactive ghost ship.  Could the ocean, then, be a solution for all that debris?  No one complained when the U.S. Coast Guard sank the ship.

Earlier this year, Japan announced its first trade deficit since 1980.  What happened in 1980?  The second energy crisis.  When Peak Oil strikes, Japan, whose economy depends on petroleum for 45% of its needs, will, like Hawaii (which is in the range of 90% oil dependent), go into depression.

The country experienced a record 4.41 trillion yen ($54 billion) trade deficit in 2011, and first time since 2008. Very simply, exports dropped and imports grew, especially fossil fuels.  The Great Tohoku disaster, of course, was the primary reason.

Japan has the  highest debt/GDP ratio in the world.  The following shows this figure for Japan, France and the USA:

Note that Japan sits at 180%, three times higher than the U.S.  However, this appears not to be a concern because the loans are mostly to its citizens.  (I also think U.S. debt/GDP ratio is not a problem.)

So is there any hope for Japan?  In the short term, no.  If Peak Oil is delayed for a generation and global warming turns out to be not so bad, after all, perhaps the Blue Revolution can be the ultimate solution.  HOWEVER, WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF BOTH NOT HAPPENING WITHIN A DECADE?  Interestingly enough, as shown in the pictorial to the left, not a whale, which only alienates Japan from the world, but a whale shark, could well be part of the solution.

But sustainable grazing platforms will take a quarter century to become commercially functional.  The Pacific International Ocean Station has been advanced by Blue Revolution Hawaii to show the way, and Japan can serve as the world lead.  All it will take is some responsible decision-making.

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