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Wednesday, January 4, 2012

THE CONTINUING REPUBLICAN SURVIVAL SERIES

Well, the Romney (AP photo) landslide victory in Iowa by 8 votes (there were more than 120,000 voters) insured that my predictions for 2012 will remain unblemished until at least into May.  He and Rick Santorum each gained about a quarter of the votes.  In case you missed it, Barack Obama also won this Iowa Caucus with a 100% majority, as he was unopposed and write-ins were not allowed.


Not too sad to say that Michelle Bachmann (AP photo) gave up.  No surprise, for as early as June of 2009 I already questioned her sanity (in the HuffPo third paragraph).  In her inimitable manner, she linked Democrats to the Swine Flu.  You can even see her performance on You Tube.

Mitt Romney, of course, will roll in New Hampshire (January 10), where he will likely gain 40% of the votes.  However, in South Carolina (January 21), the last poll I saw had Newt Gingrich ahead of Romney 38% to 21%.  Yet, this survey was taken nearly a month ago, at a time when Gingrich was also ahead in Iowa.  All those evangelicals and born again Christian voters will make a real difference in South Carolina.  The ascendancy of Santorum and continuance of Governor Rick Perry, though, will split this vote with Gingrich, a similar circumstance four years ago in this state when John McCain beat Mike Huckabee--who was compromised by Fred Thompson--and went on to become the Republican nominee.  You can almost predict the same for Romney here, where 80% of online voting has him gaining his role.  Ironically, the final primary is on June 26 in Utah.  The Republican National Convention will be held in Tampa at the end of August.

The only possible drama on the Democratic side is whether Hillary Clinton will exchange jobs with Joe Biden, secretary of state for the vice presidency.  Now that the optimal scenario is actually unfolding--Occupy Movement replacing the Tea Party, improving economy, disposal  of bin Laden and Gaddafi, return of troops from Iraq--only Ron Paul running as a serious Independent candidate is left to insure victory for Obama.  The Democratic National Convention will be held in Charlotte (NC) in early September.

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The Dow Jones Industrials ticked up 21 to 12,418, while markets in Europe and the Orient were all down.  Gold jumped $15/toz to $1614, while the WTI is at $103/barrel and Brent at $114/barrel.

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