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Monday, June 14, 2010

THE PRICE OF OIL WILL SKYROCKET IN FIVE YEARS...IF NOT SOONER

The 12June2010 issue of The Economist had a chart showing some very revealing energy consumption patterns:

1.  In 2009 the USA and China used about the same amount of primary energy.

2.  U.S., Japan and Europe used less energy in 2010 compared to 1999.  That is, we were able to gently grow our economy over the past decade, while decreasing energy use.

3.  However, since 1999, China MORE THAN DOUBLED energy consumption.  India also in this period almost doubled use.

4.  Yet, the average American today uses 450% more energy than the typical Chinese and 1800% more than an individual in India.

5.  China and India represent 37% the world population.  Do you expect them to cut energy use anytime soon?

6.  Germany, per person, uses energy at less than half the rate of an American.  Yet, since 2003 they  have ranked #1 in export.  Even better than China.  Why?  Good question.

When you add the imminent development of Africa and other upcoming nations, considering the limits to oil, and the potential of global warming, preventing the expanded use of coal and other fossil fuels, you can with high confidence predict a severe energy cost spike within five years.  Even sooner if a major conflict erupts between Israel and Iran.

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After looking good most the day, the Dow Jones Industrials eventually edged down 20 to 10,191, while world markets almost all went up.  Gold increased $5/toz to $1222 and crude oil rests just below $75/barrel.

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The disturbance west of South America moving towards the Caribbean continues to show some potential of strengthening, while a new weather spot popped up on the Pacific side of Central America.



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