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Monday, March 5, 2012

THE FUTURE OF PUTIN, SARKOZY, XI AND OBAMA

Well, my predictions for the year have been mostly (Romney was edged by Santorum in Iowa) right, as I predicted that Vladimir Putin would win in March.  No one got this wrong, but I'm picking Nicolas Sarcozy in May.  Polls show he is behind by 12%.  Putin supposedly "gained" 63% of the votes, but there was unnecessary overkill in his strategy.  Reports indicated some serious polling day inconsistencies.

Angela Merkel is good at least through most of next year, as the next federal elections occur in the fall of 2013.  However, the unemployment rate for the Eurozone is approaching 11%, so incumbents no doubt will get the blame.  Unemployment in Russia is also in this range, but Putin is obviously above it all...at least for now.  Both The Economist and TIME magazine say this the beginning of the end of Vladimir.

In October Xi Jinping is still on track to replace President Hu Jintao in China.  The unemployment rate in China is at 4%, but their system is such that nothing matters, for people vote only in local elections and on their representatives to the National People's Congress (NPG).  However, the Communist Party controls everything, including the NPG succession plans.

I did presage that Barack Obama would be re-elected, and he remains the betting favorite in the November presidential election:


My predictions, of course, are made with tongue firmly in cheek, as, for example, I have portended that Kim Il Sung will not descend from heaven on 12April2012, the centennial of his birth, and the Mayan Prophesy can ignored, or Doomsday will not occur on 21December2012.  These fortune-telling sure things of course also improve my divination record.

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The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 15 to 12,963, with major world markets also all decreasing.  Gold fell $6/toz to $1706, while the WTI Cushing is at $107/barrel and Brent Spot at $124/barrel.

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My one day vacation ended with lunch on my Waikiki Sheraton lanai of freshly prepared sukiyaki and gyoza with the Royal Hawaiian Hotel in the foreground.  I stayed there in December during another festive weekend.  I had a chance to finish my fine cabernet and left over beer.  Fine cuisine is more than food, of course.  To enhance my repast today, Mount Leahi (also known as Diamond Head) was in the background, 50 souls were enjoying the surf and I was serenaded by the ambience of the pounding surf (a lower frequency analog of the 283 GHz cosmic background radiation--a nine-minute clip if you have nothing better to do):

I also went to a University of Hawaii softball game yesterday, a tournament won by the Rainbow Wahines with a 1-0 victory over #20 Florida State.  These games are all action, as between innings bingo is played and all (even substitutes) the players jump unto the field for wind sprints, ball throwing and a range of three-ring circus acts:


The Hawaii softball team is undefeated this year, and will host top ten teams California and Texas, plus Texas A&M, beginning March 13.  These games will all be free.  Yes, FREE!

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