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Wednesday, December 21, 2011


I specialize in early predictions, as I did in my first Huffington Post article, when in May of 2008 I prognosticated that Barack Obama would prevail over Hillary Clinton, then win the presidency.  Today, even earlier, I again auger that he will beat Republican Willard Mitt Romney and Independent Ronald Ernest Paul.

Here is the scenario:

  3January2011:  Paul earns a surprise victory in the Iowa Caucus.

10January2011:  Romney scores in New Hampshire.

February:  Paul realizes he can't gain the Republican nomination, so one ups Donald Trump and aligns with Americans Elect as a centrist third party candidate.

Combined with the Republicans continuing to assassinate each other, Romney's religion turning off a sufficient number of Republican voters that they pass on 6November2012, Paul gaining as much as 5% of the national vote and foreign policy being a non-issue (for Iraq is now history, while Saddam, Osama and Muammar are gone), Obama easily gains a second term.  

There, however, will be considerable money invested by the rich into Republican congressional coffers because:

...the Bush tax cuts will ­expire unless something is done, plus, on Jan. 1, 2013, the top tax rate will rise from 35% to 39.6% on salary, from 15% to 39.6% on corporate dividends and from 15% to 20% on long-term capital gains. At the same time a Medicare “surcharge” of 3.8% on investment earnings will kick in (on income above $250,000 per couple) and the current $5 million per-person exemption from the federal estate and gift tax will dip to $1 million.

However, the disgust the public has for the U.S. Congress (all-time low in approval rating since Gallup began polling in 1974) and the irritation engendered by the Occupy Movement (where only 3% are Republicans--after all, they are mostly complaining about Wall Street), plus the lowered Republican turnout (refer to Romney), further result in a Democratic House and Senate.

The Dow Jones Industrials did not do much today, up 4 to 12,107, with world markets mostly down.  Gold dropped $12/toz to $1612, while oil continued a climb up, the WTI at $99/barrel and Brent at $109/barrel.


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