Day 148 of the Lower Puna Eruption, and nothing new.
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It was on September 11, 2001 when I spent six hours in bed, from 3am to 9am, in horror watching the terroristic attack on the USA. This morning, the Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh also kept me in bed for six hours. However, I wasn't about to wake up at 4AM, so I recorded the whole CNN proceedings, and began watching at 5:30AM or so.
Christine Blazey Ford was first to testify and was convincing. Something terrible happened when she was 15 years old, and Brett Kavanaugh, with Michael Judge, were accused. She is 100% certain it was Kavanaugh who personally attempted to remove her clothing in a locked room with Judge serving as laughing partner.
One problem was the process. The Republican leadership decided that a seasoned Arizona presecutor would confront Ford. So this is how it went: opening statements, Rachel Mitchell using the next five minutes interacts with Ford, then a Democrat praising Ford for five minutes, then back to Mitchell, then the next Democrat, etc. There was no continuity for the prosecutor, but all the activity just made Ford a lot more credible. After this was over, Mitchell walked up to shake Ford's hand and did nothing to strengthen the Republican point of view. Mitchell could just as well have been Ford's best friend in glossing over everything seeking some character flaw, Democratic strategizing or whatever. The four hours went quickly. Surely, a few Republicans will now not vote with President Trump if a final vote is held this weekend.
Brett Kavanaugh then came on and with vigor and almost anger, reiterating all his previous statements. If anything, and he continues on, he has hurt his chances by being so dogmatic, and primarily citing personal trivia extolling his excellence. Emotional, yes, and fighting for his future, but he was facing a female who was emotionally hurt and came forward as a civic duty with nothing to gain.
He must have been convinced by Trump to take a defiant role. Too bad. I might further add that Rachel Mitchell did not particularly help Kavanaugh, and, in fact, hurt his case, because her tepid comments were interspersed every five minutes by furious Democrats belittling him. However, now and then Republicans realized this was not working, so Senator Lindsey Graham took his turn and went overboard with his anger about how Kavanaugh was being treated. But, after all, he is from South Carolina, a Trump state. The process was adjusted after Graham.
Then, of course, what about the four other accusers who haven't yet had a chance to face him? What would Mark Judge (left) do when subpoenaed under oath?
Brett Kavanaugh will not now be voted into this lifetime job, and worse, could lose his present judgeship because of perjury. His life would hereby be ruined. If, somehow, he perchance is voted into the Supreme Court under these circumstances, Republicans will be decimated on November 6 and he will now be the second justice with a record of lying.
If they truly reflect on the long term, Donald Trump and Republicans now have a larger problem. How soon can they shift gears with another candidate for the Supreme Court? Can they reconvene late in December to vote on someone in a lame duck session if Democrats gain control of the Senate on November 6?
Who might they be? Thomas Hardiman:
Amy Coney Barrett:
Raymond Kethledge:
Amul Thapur (Mitch McConnell's favorite):
If mid-term voters keep Republicans in power, then they will have two years to still approve of their desired conservative judge. One of the above will most likely be next.
So what is my assessment of the situation? Much of what is happening has to do with politics. But those are the facts of life. Brett Kavanaugh might have been a bit reckless while a student and soon thereafter, but he matured and became an exemplary citizen and excellent judge. In a way, this is unfair because he is a fine citizen today. The problem is that there is more than one female who has accused him of sexual predation when he was much younger, and especially when drunk. But he lied by saying no, no..... This is, morally, perjury. It might be impossible to legally determine how truthful these women were.
But circumstantial evidence is overwhelming. If this were a year ago, when the #Me Too movement had not yet gained momentum, it is possible that Ford would not have taken that first step, and others following. Today, women have gained a new kind of voice dealing with sexuality. Unfortunate for Kavanaugh, but timing could well be the difference. He should not be confirmed as the next Supreme Court justice, for there are candidates with equally imposing records who have not been accused of anything serious.
I might mention that President Trump did not today meet with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein. Thus, he still remains to protect investigator Bob Mueller.
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Typhoon Trami is down to 120 MPH, with the eye passing between Miyakojima and Naha. If landfall occurs over Kyushu, Trami will still be at Category 2 strength on Sunday afternoon. However, models show the eye passing east and rolling over either Shikoku or Honshu:
Typhoon Trami is expected to remain mostly at hurricane strength over Honshu.
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