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Wednesday, October 17, 2012

OBAMA/BIDEN 2 - ROMNEY/RYAN 1

My posting on 3October12 predicted Barack Obama would be elected to a second term if he did not shoot himself in the foot during these presidential debates and the economy did not suddenly collapse. These debates are crucial.  To quote from this article:

The classic example is Ronald Reagan versus Jimmy Carter (debate) in 1980.  Going into the final week, Carter had a 3-8% (depending on poll) lead.  Yet, Reagan won by 10 points?  How?  Simple.  October 29 was the one and only presidential campaign debate.  The movie actor dominated.

Well, after three debates, the score is 2-1 in favor of the Democrats, with Obama and Romney splitting (Romney won #1 and Obama #2) and Biden beating Ryan.  The final debate will occur in Florida at 9PM (EDT) on Monday, October 22.  Obama should have an advantage because the subject will be foreign policy.  Bob Schieffer will moderate.

The New York Times recently brought up the matter of a third party vote.  In the 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore, if Gore had received just 538 more votes in Florida, he would have won the electoral votes for that state and the presidential election.  Ralph Nader of the Green Party received 97,421 votes in Florida.  You can read the details, but if not for this spoiler effect, now known as the "Nader effect," Gore would have been become the 43rd President of the United States.

I might add that Nader just last month called Obama a war criminal.  But the Green Party candidate this year is Jill Stein. She's a physicist and doctor with a Harvard M.D. degree.
This time around the Republicans are concerned, for the former Republican governor of New Mexico, Gary Johnson, is running as the Libertarian Party nominee.  Republicans seriously attempted to prevent him from qualifying in a number of states, but when the dust cleared, Johnson will be eligible in 48 states.  Republicans were successful in assuring that Ron Paul was not that candidate, but all Johnson needs to do is gain a percentage point or two in a few key states.  For the record, I only know because I got my mail in ballot and noted that the VP candidate for the Green Party is Cheri Honkala, an anti-poverty advocate, while the Libertarian Party has James P. Gray, a former judge.  By the way, there are four amendments in Hawaii, and Oahuans vote for the strangest people from various islands.

While only 2% of Republicans have a very favorable opinion about Johnson, combined with the fact that Romney is a Mormon, I suspect there will be a sufficient number of lukewarm Romney supporters who will actually vote for Johnson on November 6.  There is validity, for a CNN/ORC poll shows that 3-4% of voters say plan to vote for Johnson.  Three percent shifting away from Romney will make a huge difference in some toss-up states.

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