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Thursday, June 28, 2012

WHO WILL WIN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN THE USA?

Romney or Obama?  You can argue all you want, agonizing with each gaffe and sound bite, but the reality is something else.  Here are two ways to avoid the frustration and gain a less stressful life.

Earlier this year I posted on one way to keep track of the Fall Presidential Election.  INTRADE, which actually originates out of the Republic of Ireland, provides an opportunity for you, like in sports betting, to invest in your candidate.  The latest board shows Obama at around 54% and Romney at 44%.  Incidentally, there appears to be a 72% chance of the Supreme Court declaring healthcare as unconstitutional.  The official word could be announced any minute now.  (Just came out, and Obamacare was upheld, meaning, approved or deemed constitutional, with certain language regarding the individual mandate as a tax.  Chief Justice John Roberts was the swing vote with the liberal four to make the difference.  When Obama was a senator, he voted against Roberts for Chief Justice.  A big victory for President Obama, but maybe a liability for his re-election because of the tax implications.)

Well, anyway, I was sent another political calculus, this one by Nate Silver.  The current electoral count has Obama at 288 and Romney at 250.  Obama is given a 61% chance of winning, while Romney, 39%.  As you read the newspaper/www or watch TV, though, keep in mind that polling services have an inherent bias:


That is, if you see a Pew poll, it tends to give Obama a 3.2% edge, while, as would be expected, Fox News favors Romney by 1.5%.  Gallup leans in Romney's direction by 2.5%.   It's mostly related to who they survey.

So the status today, if nothing changes, is that Barack Obama will be re-elected on November 6, only 131 days away.  But things do change!  Only 1594 days to the 2016 election.

I flew today from Busan to Bangkok.  Interesting that there was the regular audio/visual system, but I was also provided the latest iPad for movies.  The audio fidelity was excellent and the video was in high definition, unlike the "old" system.  The meal was okay:


If you are ever in this position, be very careful about that kim chee packet, for opening it is a non-trivial operation.  Imagine a hand grenade exploding this foul-smelling concoction.  The second course was a beef stroganoff, followed by cheeses with port and dessert with Kahlua and coffee.


I can't believe I was watching Barry Manilow in concert through the meal.  My flight successfully arrived in Bangkok:


One of my very favorite hotels is the Sheraton Grand Sukhumvit.  It is next to the Skytrain station, with the Westin and Robinson Department Store across the street.  My view on the other side:


I had dinner at Rossini's, an Italian restaurant in the hotel.  My entre was an ossobuco.



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