My greatest worry is not this recession but the possible coming depression. I will predict that, when the economy improves, the price of oil will spike past the high of $147/barrel attained in July of 2008. Not sure when, but certainly in five to ten years. Saudi Arabia already warned on 26May2009 of $150/barrel oil in THREE YEARS.
Here is the problem when oil is priced at that rate:
1. Our economy is too dependent on tourism. Even high tech was decimated this year by the State Legislature. I've long been suggesting the Blue Revolution, but my pontifications rarely gain any attention.
2. Jet fuel prices will skyrocket again. Tourists will, then, really stop coming to Hawaii, with no relief possible unless we can find a way to reduce their travel expenses. I can foresee a State depression for a very long period.
3. Biofuels from terrestrial crops will be very expensive and cannot be expected to replace jet fuel. This will be a matter of pure economics. However, do the R&D, and pray for a miracle.
4. Biofuels from marine algae have a shot at replacing jet fuel, except that it is not yet ready, and will take at least a decade to develop with ten times more funding and various tax incentives. My survey of specialists in this field indicates that oil would need to go up to something in the range of $200/barrel for current microalgae systems to begin to become competitive. This should be a very high priority R&D effort for the University of Hawaii.
5. There is no next generation airliner capable of replacing the current planes.
There is, however, one longshot concept that deserves a chance. Rinaldo Brutoco, president of the World Business Academy, has proposed the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper. His idea is to design a dirigible filled and powered with hydrogen from renewable energy locations (such as windfarms and the Puna geothermal field) capable of flying at speeds up to 500 miles per hour (although 350 MPH is his current maximum). The H2 Clipper would then carry passengers and deliver renewable hydrogen to the West Coast.
As corporations like Boeing and Lockheed Martin will never themselves initiate such an adventure, we need the Federal government to step in and take the lead. However, 75% of the Department of Defense energy budget is for jet fuel. We thus have something in common with that most supported of agencies beginning to do something about this problem. With Senator Dan Inouye as Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman, Barack Obama as President of the United States and a commitment by the current White House to go green (sustainable aviation has not even been discussed), we have never, ever, been in a better position to take a leadership role to develop something like the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper.
Yes, there is the Hindenburg disaster, no existing hydrogen market and a million reasons why this project should not work. Let's, though, see how this can succeed. Does anyone have a better idea?
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After dipping more than 150 points, the Dow Jones Industrials recovered over the final half hour to only lose 66 to 8675. European markets all fell and those in the Orient rose. Maybe Fereidun might have a clue after all, as oil dropped $2.30/barrel to $66.25. $26 dollars to go. Gold fell $19/toz to $963.
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4 comments:
I agree that Hawaii especially needs a solution for aviation fuels to sustain our current economy. In Hawaii County, 38% of our imported crude is going to aviation fuels. Luckily, there is a project with NREL, Sandia National Labs, PNW National Labs and other private companies including H2 Technologies of Hawaii that are tackling aviation fuels through a joint project on renewable high energy density fuels and storage.
Guy, there is an important role for hydrogen in our future, and aviation might well be the potential crisis and opportunity.
I’m glad you’re covering the H2 Clipper. It will dramatically cut transportation costs through its large pressurized compartment suitable either for passengers or for pressure/temperature-sensitive freight. This is critical for the military and important for cities dependent on tourism.
The H2 Clipper will also speed the transition to renewable energy. Hydrogen is an invaluable energy carrier and storage medium that can smooth the daily and seasonal fluctuations of intermittent energy sources such as solar, wind, and geothermal. We must produce hydrogen on a large scale from renewable resources like wind, geothermal, and solar.
But we need a cheap way to deliver the hydrogen to market. The way to do this is to use the cargo as the fuel source—to use hydrogen’s extraordinary lifting capacity to get large quantities of it to the end user.
The argument that it is too expensive to transport hydrogen in large quantities stems from the fact that so far the focus has been on transporting hydrogen as a liquefied gas in tanker trucks—this is expensive because of the high cost of trucking and of liquefying the gas.
The H2 Clipper will be a cheap, clean way to deliver hydrogen to fueling stations like those that California, South Carolina, and Europe are creating as part of their hydrogen highways.
One unique version of the H2 Clipper, the Hydrolifter, will act as a mobile elevator platform that uses almost no energy in carrying hundreds of thousands of gallons of water to virtually any altitude on the planet. This application is particularly vital as it means that the hundreds of millions of people on the planet who now depend on disappearing glacial melt waters for survival will have a way to get water to their high-altitude villages at an affordable cost rather than having to rely on a conventional water system that would require prohibitive uphill-pumping of fresh water.
The H2 Clipper certainly should join the mix of options now being considered for the future of aviation. Your advantage is that your concept should be closer to commercialization than the National Aerospace Plane and a lot more attractive than that helium blimp being touted for cargo service.
Aloha.
Pat
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