PHOSPHORUS: A LOOMING CRISIS

The current issue of Scientific American has an article on “Phosphorus:  A Looming Crisis.”  To summarize:

 

1. The Saudi Arabia of phosphorus is Morocco.  China is #1 in world supply and the USA is #2, but already, we are importing phosphorus…from Morocco.  A small amount comes from guano (usually excrement of bats and seabirds), but both Christmas Island and Nauru (where Japan had an OTEC project) are running out of this stuff.
2. Phosphorus was distilled in 1669 by Hennig Brand from his urine (yes, your urine has phosphates, which chemically are composed of one part phosphorus and four parts oxygen).
3. What is phosphorus (P) and why is it important?
1. Atomic number 15, a solid, found in the Periodic Table just below, and therefore most closely related to, nitrogen, a gas.
2. Very reactive, so not found in nature as an element.
3. Usually mined as calcium phosphate rock.
4. Is a component of DNA, RNA, etc., but is mostly found in our bones and teeth.
5. Those three numbers on fertilizers, like 19-12-5, stand for the percentage of nitrogen (19%), PHOSPHORUS (12%) and potassium (5%).  Neither nitrogen nor potassium will ever run out.  But the sustainability of phosphorus is in question to provide food into the long-term future.
6. Actually, there is enough phosphorus to last a thousand years, but commercially available phosphate rocks will run out in less than a century.
7. So what’s the big deal?  Well, a ton of phosphate rock remained less than $25/ton until 2006, when the price zoomed up to $113/ton in 2008.  The price of phosphorus fertilizer in 2009 is predicted to be volatile.
8. There are at least 300 phosphoric acid fuel cells operating to provide electricity in stationary applications, making this the first type of fuel cell to become commercially competitive.

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The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 23 to 8300, while world markets were mixed.  Gold rose $5/toz to $931, while crude oil is nearing $69/barrel.

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Hurricane Andres killed one, but has quickly dissipated off Mexico.  Tropical Storm Nangka, at 50 MPH, should pass through China and Taiwan.

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