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Monday, June 8, 2009

PEAK HUMANITY: 1998


If the doomsdayers are right, when did society begin to decline? Let me suggest 1998. Why?

- In December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was signed (close enough to 1998).

- Bill met Monica, resulting in his impeachment, which Hillary labeled a “vast right-wing conspiracy.”

- Our U.S. Senate passed a resolution urging President Clinton to respond to the threat of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction program.

- The FDA approved Viagra.

- An antitrust suit was filed against Microsoft.

- This is the year I announced my retirement from the UH. Officially, it was the end of the following year. Yes, a decade ago.

- Charlton Heston became president of the NRA.

- The Catholic priest scandal unfolded.

- Russian banks collapsed and the world stock markets registered their second largest decline in history. However, our Federal government showed a surplus of $70 billion, the first in 29 years.

- Google was founded.

- Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota. Now they have the Al Franken embarrassment.

- Sonny Bono skied into a tree and died.

Actually, not really an eventful year. However, based on 2009 dollars, oil reached a near all time low of $15.96/barrel in 1998, as compared to 1950 ($25.10/bbl), 1972 ($14.29/bbl), 1980 ($99.18/bbl) and around $70/bbl today, but surely to go up and up. I could have analyzed historical GDP/capita data and all those other parametric comparisons, but I’ll leave that to others. Yes, Humanity, perhaps, began to decline, maybe for good, in 1998. Blame the price of oil.
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After dropping 136, the Dow Jones Industrials recovered to plus 1 at 8764, but world markets almost all declined. Crude oil inched up to $68.65/barrel and gold eased down $1/toz to $954. Money Morning hints that we might be on the leading edge of a new bull market, or not.

Here is something really interesting. I thought my GM stocks were worthless when it went bankrupt. As I mentioned, I bought some shares the weekend before it went under, just as a hedge for Ford. Well, looks like GM is now GMGMQ and the value has actually come up recently, so I can actually still cash it in and not lose any money. Amazing! I called Ameritrade, and the person on the line said, who knows what will happen, but there is a chance that the price will go up further, but could also get zeroed out, as in the cases of United Air and Enron. I guess I'll hold on to see what happens.
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If you wondered what the photo was all about, it is just a 1998 gathering of a SETI group, for my chapter 4 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity hints that the answer to our destiny might well be streaming in from outer space.
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