HOW DANGEROUS ARE TSUNAMIS?

Twenty years ago today, the deadliest tsunami in recorded history inundated Asian countries and killed about 230,000 people.  The Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake, also called the Boxing Day Earthquake (Boxing Day is a holiday celebrated after Christmas Day, mostly in Europe and Commonwealth nations):

• 
  Was caused by a subsea earthquake possibly as high as 9.3 magnitude (this was #2 to the largest, which was the 1960 Chile earthquake at 9.5) off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia.

• 
  Waves were as high as 167 feet in Aceh province, and two hours later, Sri Lanka saw 20 feet (with run-ups as high as 41 feet--there is a difference in these two terms), and  Thailand had run-ups of up to 64 feet.  
• 
  At Phuket, Thailand, the second wave was the largest at 20 feet.  Also two hours after the earthquake, India saw heights as much as 33 feet.   3100 miles away in Somalia, there was a run-up of 30 feet.

• 
  The maximum height above sea level a tsunami reaches on shore is called the run-up.
• In this tsunami, the second wave was the most damaging, and there were smaller first and third waves.
• The time between the waves is usually unpredictable and varied, typically ranging from 5 minutes to 2 hours.  Dangerous tsunami currents  can last for days.
• 
  Costas Synolakis writes that the U.S. is not ready for a giant tsunami.  He founded the University of Southern California Tsunami Center in 1996 and this year was named manager of the year.

• 
  Indonesia is building a Giant Sea Wall to protect Jakarta.
• More for flood control and land reclamation than to protect from a tsunami, for Jakarta is sinking.
• Cost of $40 billion for a 20-mile wall.  Or maybe $80 billion.
• Should be in place by 2027.
• A Stanford report argues against walls.
• 
  Japan's Great Wall.
• The 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake, Tsunami and Nuclear Disaster killed 20,000.
• Nearly 250 miles of tall concrete walls are are now standing along their northeast coast to soften future tsunami damage at a cost of $12 billion.
• Previous walls were only 26 feet tall, but that tsunami reached 50 feet.
• They now stand 45 feet tall, with portions up to 82 feet, and wider bases.

Historically, there have been truly monumental tsunamis, caused by asteroids, landslides, volcanoes and earthquakes.

• The more serious tsunamis come from asteroids, volcanoes and landslides.
• That Chicxulub asteroid event over the Yucatan Peninsula 66 million years ago created tsunamis of 330 feet high waves.  
• Also killed off the dinosaurs.
• But a major asteroid the size of a football field hits Earth only every 2000 years, while one large enough to threaten civilization comes only once every few million years.
• 
  Between 1 and 1.5 million years ago, the Nuuanu Slide occurred, when the eastern half of the Koolau Volcano on Oahu collapsed, causing a mega-tsunami that ravaged the West Coast of North America. 
• Watch this video.
• That event sent nearly half of Oahu into the Pacific Ocean, leaving behind part of the volcano, where I now live on Nuuanu Avenue.
• 
  My Chapter 6 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth projects that a more serious landslide can occur on the Big Island, which would jeopardize the West Coast.
• 1.4 million years ago, one-third of the East Molokai Volcano collapsed, generating a tsunami in the near field of 2000 feet.

• 
  Around 200,000 years ago, a volcano caused a collapse of Tenerife, Canary Islands, causing a mega-tsunami.  Another such  event has been predicted here again, which could in 9 hours reach Florida with 82 feet high tsunami waves.
• Hawaii is especially vulnerable for landslides, as around 105,000 years ago, a submarine landslide deposited  sediments on Lanai at an elevation of up to 1394 feet.  This same event reached as high as 262 feet on Oahu.
• I can go on and on, but if you're interested in these details, go to Wikipedia.

As natural disasters go, tsunamis are considered to be relatively rare.

• Especially in the Atlantic Ocean.  There have been a few, and more might be possible in the future.  The Great Lisbon Earthquake and Tsunami in 1755 might have killed up to 50,000.  This event changed history.

• 
  In the past 100 years, there have been 58, claiming 260,000 lives.
• That Boxing Day Tsunami itself accounted for 230,000 lives.  #2 was the 2011 Japan Tohoku disaster with 20,000 lives.

• 
  78% of tsunamis from 1900 to 2015 occurred in the Pacific Ocean.  Only 5% originated in the Indian Ocean, where that #1 killer originated.
• Thus, much of the alert warning technology is in the Pacific Ocean, although, after that disaster of 20 years ago, other areas are beginning to take precautions.

Some countries have never seen a tsunami, especially if landlocked.  

• The five countries with the lowest risk of all natural disasters from TEMPO.com are:  Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Malta, Singapore and Uruguay.
• Wikipedia has  quite a different list:
• Safest, #1 Andorra and Monaco
• #3  San Marino
• #4  Luxembourg
• #6  Singapore
• #8  Malta
• #13  Switzerland
• #16  Qatar
• #105  Uruguay
• #129  Saudi Arabia
• #158  Japan
• #168  USA
• #175  Russia
• #178  China
• #184  India
• #185  Philippines
• 
  Why such a difference?  Don't know.  Singapore could someday suffer from a tsunami, but have never had that problem.  
• The Indian Ocean monster occurred on the other side of Indonesia, so Singapore was not seriously affected, for the maximum tsunami height was less than a meter or yard.
• With all those typhoons flying around the Philippines, down to Vietnam, and up to Japan, why has Singapore never faced one?  It is too close to the equator, and cyclonic storms don't go there.
  
• Singapore is outside the earthquake zone, and has only felt minor tremors, never one which caused structural damage.
• Want a safe place with high tech and good living?  Visit Singapore, one of my favorite places.  Singapore was this year named as the safest destination in the world for travelers by Forbes Advisor.

Since 1788, the U.S. has been struck 21 times by tsunamis.

• Lituya Bay, Alaska has seen a handful.
• On 27October1936, a landslide caused a 490 foot wave that travelled about 2000 feet inland.

• 
  On 10July1958, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake occurred, causing a rockfall which generated a gargantuan 1720 feet wave (nearly as tall as the new World Trade Center and largest ever recorded).  Five deaths.
• Another landslide on 1January1853 created a wave of 394 feet.

• 
  An 8.1 earthquake hit near Alaska's Aleutian Islands on 1April1946, killing 165, 159 in Hawaii.
• The Great Alaska Earthquake on 27March1964 at 9.2 magnitude, created a 220 feet high tsunami, killing 120.
• Afraid of tsunamis?  Avoid Hawaii.  Want to read the right column?  Click on that link.

These Are the 10 U.S. Counties Facing the Greatest Risk From a Tsunami:

COUNTY	RISK SCORE	RELATIVE RISK
1. Honolulu County, Hawaii	100	Very High
2. Maui County, Hawaii	98.6	Relatively High
3. Hawaii County, Hawaii	97.3	Relatively High
4. Aleutians West Census Area, Alaska	95.9	Relatively High
5. Del Norte County, California	94.6	Relatively High
6. Kauai County, Hawaii	93.2	Relatively High
7. Kenai Peninsula Borough, Alaska	91.9	Relatively High
8. Clatsop County, Oregon	90.5	Relatively Moderate
9. Humboldt County, California	89.2	Relatively Moderate
10. Santa Cruz County, California	87.8	Relatively Moderate

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UPDATE ON VOLCANO ERUPTION IN HAWAII

Yes, the eruption in Puna on the Big Island is continuing, but there have been no deaths.  The number of fissures has doubled to twelve, and ten or so homes (number up to 25 later in the day) have been destroyed.  Last night a lava fountain of 230 feet was reported, the highest yet.  Note, however, that this housing tract is located in the middle of the very active East Rift Zone.

You can only wonder how Leilani Estates came to be.  In 1955 and 1960 serious eruptions occurred down the fault line in Kapoho, less than 10 miles away.  But in 1964 this subdivision was created, bestowed as the royal child or heavenly lei.  To quote:

Leilani Estates is a beautiful, rural subdivision in the Puna District on Hawai'i Island.  Our Community has well-maintained, paved roads, one-acre lots, an active Neighborhood Watch program, Community Emergency Response Team (CERT), and a volunteer Board of Directors. 

There is a Community Center with a multipurpose Pavilion, playground, fitness trail, ball fields and meeting facilities. We have a variety of weekly activities and classes available to Leilani Estates residents. 

Leilani Estates is close to Pahoa Town, a quaint town with an eclectic mixture of old and new. There is a variety of services, shopping and restaurants in Pahoa, including post office, banks, healthcare, an all-purpose community park and community pool. Down the road there are plenty of ocean activities with parks, swimming, snorkeling, fishing, surfing and even a hot pond heated by the Volcano. Leilani Estates is approximately 30 minutes south of Hilo and an hour from Volcanoes National Park. 

Then in 1983, Pu'u O'o crater formed, uphill, where one flow for months threatened the town of Pahoa, which is NOT ON THE RIFT ZONE.  This latest eruption skipped under Pahoa and vented right in the middle of Leilani Estates.

While you can deprecate the stupidity of the owners and laws to allow this development, 45 years ago the Hawaii Geothermal Project, of which I was a member, selected the site of HGP-A to be on this fault line, a mile or so from Leilani Estates, because that spot was deemed by geophysicists as the optimal point to do the drilling.  However, our 3 megawatt well, which, by the way, was then the hottest geothermal find ever, was experimental.  Why Puna Geothermal Ventures built their 38 MW facility close by makes some scientific sense, but was that financially and logistically smart?

The frustration and agony are compounded by USGS volcanologists just uncertain about what is next to occur.  They have no clue if the 6.9 earthquake was as large as it will get, or if the next fissures will destroy the Puna Geothermal Venture power plant.  But that is the nature of this science.  As we don't know much about dark matter, we still can't predict the whims of Madame Pele.

However, the Island of Hawaii remains open for business.  TV channels across the world report on burning homes and lava covering roads, and the Hawaii Visitors' Bureau is concerned that tourists will stop coming.  You are at this moment not allowed to enter the Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, and much of the lower Puna area.  However, the rest of the island is safe.  But what about the whole island falling into the ocean?  Won't happen, trust me.

But, to continue my story regarding mega-tsunamis caused by rift faults and massive landfalls into the deep ocean triggering these monstrous tsunamis, perhaps 100,000 years ago such a cataclysm probably occurred in Hawaii when part of the Kohala area dropped into the sea, causing seawaters to rise up the slopes of mountains on Lanai and Molokai to 1500 feet.  Only 73,000 years ago a flank of West African Fogo Volcano collapsed into the ocean and the nearby island of Santiago (left) experienced a 560-foot mega-tsunami.

To close, I live on Nuuanu Avenue on the Island of Oahu in Hawaii.  From my book, but extracted from a posting on this site:

A particularly good example is the collapse on Oahu of Koolau Volcano a million years ago (give or take 500,000 years). Known as the Nuuanu Landslide or Nuuanu Debris Avalanche, where an apparent earthquake caused one third of the island to break off and fall into the sea. This might have been the largest landslide in the history of the planet, for just one chunk, known as the Tuscaloosa Seamount, is 20 miles (32 km) by 11 miles (18 km) and just more than one mile (1.8 km) high, and is located 60 miles (96 km) northeast of the Nuuanu Pali at a depth of 8800 feet (2680 m). As you drive towards Kaneohe/Kailua through the Pali or Wilson Tunnels and look back at the mountains, what you are viewing is that inside portion of the volcano that remained, although over the years, there has been considerable erosion and land build-up. A web page by Paul Jokiel of the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology provides good info (Google search: “Jokiel’s illustrated scientific guide to Kaneohe Bay, Oahu”).

Kenji Satake of the Japan National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology reconstructed the event and surmised on the resultant tsunami from computer models using digital bathymetric data obtained on cruises commissioned by the Japan Marine Science and Technology Center. Estimated were: volume of 3000 km3 and velocity range from 20 m/s to 100 m/sec. Calculated tsunami heights were 100 meters (328 feet) in north Oahu, but 30 meters (98 feet) on the opposite side of the island, Waikiki. Five hours after the slide, 10-40 meters hit the Pacific Northwest and 30-70 meters in California, and in eight hours, 5-10 meters on the Japanese coast. Satake indicated that the wave heights could well have been double those sizes in the Hawaii Islands. So, a noted scientist did write about the prospects of a mega-tsunami in the far field from a landslide.

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CHESS

About the Ukraine matter, here is another explanation, by VOX, of why Putin invaded.  In short:

Putin believes that Ukraine is an illegitimate country that exists on land that’s historically and rightfully Russian. Zelensky’s willingness to move away from Moscow and toward the West is, in Putin’s mind, an attempt to legitimize the “false” regime in Kyiv. The existence of an anti-Russian regime in what he views as rightfully Russian territory populated by rightfully Russian people is unacceptable to him — so unacceptable that he is willing to wage a costly and bloody war over it.

I haven't been paying much attention to chess for quite a while, so with nothing better to do this sparkling (the view of Honolulu from where I sit is fabulous) Saturday morning, I will attempt to crystallize the essence of the field.  Click on this to see the world ranking:

• 
  #1 Magnus Carlsen of Norway is only 31 and has already been World Chess Champ for five years.  His peak rating of 2882 is the highest in history.  This has dropped to 2865.  At 15 won the Norwegian Chess Championship, and reached #1 in one of the world rankings at the age of 19, the youngest to ever do this.
• Three of the top eight today are from the USA.

Then there is India's 16-year old chess grandmaster, Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa, who beat Carlsen in an online rapid chess tournament.  Pragg became the youngest person to ever defeat him.  Carlsen did reveal that he was suffering the after-effects of COVID-19.

Said to be the greatest chess champion in history, Carlsen has admitted that he'd regularly lose to a computer.  Deep Blue, the IBM supercomputer, beat then world champ Garry Kasparov in 1985, and again in 1996.  Today there are several chess engines, with AlphaZero having a rating of more than 3000.  That you can't buy, but the next best is Stockfish, which is a free app.  AlphaZero beat Stockfish in a 100-game tournament.

How's this for gender inferiority.  There has never been a female world chess champ.  Currently, there is only one woman in the top 100, Hou Yifan of China at #89.  There is an argument, though, that this is because there are so few females playing chess, so the reason is not biological.  Yet, there are other opinions.

There are 39 female grandmasters, and only one from the USA, Irina Krush.  A check of the current status shows 1688 male grandmasters and only 37 female.

You might have watched last year the 7-episode Netflix series, The Queen's Gambit.  Anya Taylor-Joy became famous in this role.  Rotten Tomatoes reviewers gave this production a terrific 96 rating.

Nothing to do with chess, but I did say this was a sparkling morning in Honolulu.  Then a friend sent me this video of a mega tsunami inundating the city.  I have an upcoming posting on this subject.  About four years ago I wrote about a historical 1500-feet mega tsunami that struck Molokai and Lanai. 

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THE RISKIEST CITIES IN THE WORLD

       From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732         1185       246       82

July    22     1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9     1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21     1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25      2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30      3880    14748       1224       299      465

Jan     14       4142    15512         1151        189       712              

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

          25       2414    10578        1582        119      144

Mar     2        1989      9490       1726       110      194

          31       1115      12301        3950       458       58

April   6         906     11787         4211        631       37

May    4         853     13667         3025     3786      59 

         26         607     12348         2399     3842     101

June    1         287    10637        2346      3205        95

          30         249      8505        2127        991      383

           7          251      8440        1595        817      411

         13          307      8117        1613        623      633

Summary:

• Suddenly, Indonesia yesterday had the most number of new cases at 47,899, with Spain #3 to Brazil's #2.
• However, while Indonesia also had the second most number of new deaths with 864, Spain only had 13 new deaths.  Something does not read right here.
• Africa is showing a serious ascent, and not only South Africa.

For the topic of the day, I typed into my computer, which is the deadliest city in the world, and saw that Tijuana is it.  I was looking for those sites threatened by natural hazards, but since I found this information:

• #1  Tijuana, Mexico:  138 homicides/100K people.  Drug trades and human trafficking by gangs are why.
• #2  Acapulco, Mexico:  The playground for the Hollywood set is now in a drug war.  111 homicides/100K people.  You might adjust your vacation plan if these two Mexican cities were being considered.
• Caracas, Venezuela:  100 murders/100K people, cause by poverty, poor law/order.  Kind of forget Central and much of South America

Incidentally, #1 in the USA with 65 murders/100K residents is St. Louis.  Next Baltimore with 58...and you'd never have guessed #3 correctly...Birmingham, Alabama with 51 murders/100K.  Yikes, Baton Rouge is #6 with 32. I spent almost four years there.  And, New Orleans is #7 with 31, but I knew that was problem back then.  #13 is Washington, D.C. at 25, and spent three years there.  I partly left because I thought it was a dangerous place.  Wait a minute, where is Chicago?  #28 with only 18.  I don't see New York City on this list of 65 worst. But then, it depends on which study.  The map on the left is from Statista.  Click on it to read the details.

So the United States is not too bad about murders.  However, the World Peace Index says that the USA is only the 128th safest country, meaning we are way below average.   Progress, for the latest index that just came out says we are better than that:  #122.  Did it help that Biden is now president?

• #1      Iceland
• #5      Slovenia (huh, where is this?)
• #28    Mauritius (I want to go back there, one of my favorite places)
• #41    Botswana (Hawaii's antipode, and #1 for not being involved in wars)
• #50    Vietnam
• #67    Kazakhstan
• #80    Kosovo
• #83    Rwanda
• #87    Cuba
• #100  China
• #113  Thailand
• #122  USA
• #123  South Africa (which I have avoided)
• #140  Mexico
• #141  Iran
• #143  Israel (#1 for danger from wars)
• #151  North Korea
• #154  Russia
• #163  Afghanistan

Here is a particularly interesting quote:

• The global economic impact of violence was $14.96 trillion PPP in 2020, equivalent to 11.6 per cent of global GDP or $1,942 per person. The year-on-year increase was primarily due to higher levels of military expenditure. 

Of course our USA is the culprit here:

Well, returning to the topic of the day, I actually knew the answer about cities in peril, and selected this topic because I wanted to feature the location of the Summer Olympics, Tokyo.  According to Business Insider:

• #1  Tokyo-Yokohama, Japan
• 57 million in jeopardy, and death could be instantaneous. 
• I was in a 7.1 earthquake there.  That was a mere blip for people living in Tokyo.  But what was the highest Moment Magnitude earthquake you've experienced?  The Richter Scale is now obsolete.
• Earthquakes, typhoons, floods and tsunamis.
• 
  I might add that Honolulu is similarly in danger, but we never make any of these lists.  I wonder why.  
• Maybe it's because a hurricane has never made landfall over my island of Oahu in recorded history. 
• An 1868 earthquake on the Big Island might have been at 8.1 MM.  But the worst for Oahu was only a 4.8 in 1948, and even that one was offshore.
• 
  The 1946 April Fool's Day tsunami from Alaska reached an amplitude of 55 feet.  
• But that was the Big Island.
• Supposedly a million years or so ago part of Lanai fell into the ocean, creating a 1000 foot tsunami.

• 
  Then there was the 2000 foot tsunami 1.5 million years ago when a third of the northern portion of Molokai crashed into the sea.
• I'm writing a book where a larger chunk of the Big Island crashes into the sea, creating a mega tsunami headed for the West Coast of the USA.
• 
  Oahu experienced wave heights up to 36 feet at Kaena Point and 27 feet in the region around Kahuku Point.  I have visited this latter site where huge boulders can still be seen inland.  Waikiki went up to 9 feet, with Honolulu Harbor only attaining 4 feet.  Reefs apparently help protect.
• I haven't found a good reference about a serious tsunami to hit Hawaii emanating from South America.  Then, Waikiki and Honolulu should be in severe danger.
• However the 9.5 MM 23May1960 Chile tsunami which killed 61 in Hilo with a wave amplitude up to 20 feet, only got up to 5 feet in Honolulu.  I was in California for that one.

• 
  #2  Manila, Philippines
• 34.6 million people.
• Typhoons are particularly a threat.  The three most powerful typhoons ever, all at 190 MPH and stronger, made landfall here.
• Earthquakes are possible.

• 
  #3  Pearl River Delta. China
• 34.5 million in the cities of Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Dongguan, Macau and Guangzhou.
• Storm surge, cyclonic winds and floods.
• #4  Osaka-Kobe, Japan
• 32.1 million.
• The 1995 Great Hanshin earthquake killed 6,000, causing $100 billion in damage.
• Also tsunamis and typhoons.
• 
  #5  Jakarta, Indonesia
• 27.7 million.
• 40% of the city is below sea level.
• Floods.
• Others in the top ten were Nagoya, Kolkata, Shanghai, Los Angeles and Teheran.
• I have been to all but Teheran.

Cities@risk outlook, a more comprehensive assessment, indicates that Asia is home to 99 of the World's 100 cities facing the greatest environmental challenges.  

• 576 of the world's largest cities were included in all aspects of the environment.
• #1 worst was Jakarta, and #2 New Delhi.
• Europe is home to 14 of the 20 safest cities, and Glasgow, host for the next UN climate conference in November, is the least vulnerable city to this problem
• India had 13 of the top 20 cities, with air quality being the problem.

• 
  China had 37 terrible cities.  If you've been to China, especially in January and February, as I have several times, you don't want to go back, and I won't.
• Interestingly enough, while African cities were fairly safe, 38 of the 40 cities from that continent are most at risk from global warming.
• The most vulnerable U.S. city is Los Angeles, mostly for air quality.
• This article has colorful graphics, which you need t click on to read:

• Business Standard provided the following:

So what it comes down to are the parameters used to determine worst/deadliest/riskiest/whatever city in the world.

Conversely, which are the safest cities in the world?  And this is a shocker.  The Economist in 2019 did such a ranking incorporating, digital, health, infrastructure and personal security.  Based on the above, incredibly, Tokyo was rated the SAFEST!!!

• #1    Tokyo
• #2    Singapore
• #3    Osaka
• #4    Amsterdam
• #5    Sydney
• #6    Toronto
• #7    Washington, DC (what???...I lived there...personal security is a huge problem)
• #8    Copenhagen
• #8    Seoul
• #10  Melbourne
• #11  Chicago
• #13  San Francisco
• #15  New York City
• #17  Los Angeles
• #23  Paris
• #31  Beijing
• #37  Moscow
• #47  Bangkok
• #52  New Delhi
• #60  Lagos

How can the same city be the most hazardous and the safest?  It depends on the parameters of consideration.

Maybe it doesn't matter, for things can very rapidly change.  I recall way back around 1980 when a survey showed that the Falklands was the safest place to live on Planet Earth.  Then in 1982 came the war with the UK and everything changed.

In all the above no study even mentioned Mount Fuji as to why Tokyo might be in danger.  While the last major eruption occurred in 1707, there apparently is a link to the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake that caused the tsunami and nuclear cataclysm.  And this volcano is only 60 miles away from Tokyo.  Also too, there is a 70% probability of a major earthquake in Tokyo or off the coast in the next 30 years.  

But you can't spend all your time worrying about natural or man-made disasters no matter where you live.  Honolulu is particularly vulnerable to a major hurricane, serious earthquake, damaging tsunami, or perhaps even a nuclear bomb accidentally exploding in storage at Pearl Harbor.  Those are the conditions one faces in Paradise.  I love it here and am not the least bit worried.

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