MUFA Day#22: Mount Fuji and Burger King

Mount Fuji, at 12,389 feet, the tallest mountain in Japan, is 60 miles west-southwest of Tokyo.  It is an ACTIVE volcano and last erupted in 1707-08.  Just last year, various sources noting the magma chamber pressure, speculated on a possible eruption in 2015 or earlier.  There is no consensus on the origin of the name.  Katsushika Hokusai created more than 30,000 prints, and his "South Wind, Clear Sky (Red Fuji)" around 1826 is the most famous:

Here is Hokusai's "The Great Wave off Kanagawa," and most fail to see Mount Fuji:

Most also miss those three boats.

Geologically, "Old Fuji" formed 100,000 years ago, but the present form today only occurred 10,000 years ago.

You can hike to the top of Fuji-san in July and August from various fifth stations (around 7,550 feet), taking from three to eight hours, while the descent will range from two to five hours.  Many do this at night to catch the first light of the sun.

I caught a bus to the fifth station and  did not attempt to go any further.  A few photos on the way up:

So I'm now up to the 5th level, and had a corn and sake:

By the way, there is a lot of snow at the 5th level:

I then had a wonderful lunch with Manuela and Jessica of Germany and Ilaria of Italy:

The lunch was bento, and I had No Shrimp.  Our bus held 40 from the world over.  Iliana among a giant cherry blossom tree at Hakone:

She said that Mont Blanc in Italy is 15,781 feet tall,

The tour ended just in time for me to hurry back to my hotel to have my free drinks at the Westin Tokyo Executive Club:

Ryuta has been here 20 years:

I asked him to check his hotel computer to find out how many times I've stayed at the Tokyo Westin, and he determined:  25 stays and 61 nights.

If you're keeping up with me, two nights ago I had an extravagant, but nostalgically appropriate dinner, at New York Grill of the Park Hyatt, which is also 20 years old.  The cost was four times that of last night, Lawry's The Prime Rib.  Tonight, in exponential retrogression, I went to:

The cost?  About 10% of Lawry's, if I don't count the Yebisu beer, which I stole from the Executive Club to have this meal in my room.  Is it possible to get any lower?  Stay tuned.  Tomorrow I cut the cost by a factor of four with another beef meal for lunch.  You won't believe this.  Further I've been coming to Japan for forty years, and I have never had a day when I had nothing planned for the next day...tomorrow.  Well, actually, I now have one thing:  a beef meal much cheaper than Burger King's.

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For the record, there is some new activity, Tropical Storm Tapah, now east of Guam at 55 MPH, but soon to attain hurricane strength and skirt the northeast side of the Northern Marianas:

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A FEW THINGS YOU MIGHT NOT KNOW ABOUT JAPAN

1.  The population of Japan has dropped for six straight years.  Just 1.03 million were born last year, the lowest since the end of World War II, while 1.24 million died, the second-highest (2011 was worse because of that Fukushima disaster) in the post war era.  Demographers predict that the 128 million current population will drop to 87 million in 2060, when 40% of the population will be 65 or older (it is currently 20%).  In 1950, the average mother had 4 children.  The birthrate has dropped to 1.39.  While Monaco has the highest median age at 48.9, Japan is #2 at 44.6, but Italy is #3 with 44.3 and Germany is #4 with 43.7.  The USA is #59 at 36.9.  The lowest three are Uganda 15.0, Niger 15.2 and Mali 16.2.  It is pretty clear that the growing population of Africa will pose huge problems.

2.  There are 1.5 million people of Japanese ancestry in Brazil, most near San Paulo (the above photo was taken in this city), and 1.3 million in the U.S., with California being home to 272,000 (less than 1% of state) and Hawaii with 186,000 (14%).

3.  Mount Fuji is the highest mountain (12,388 feet) in Japan, and only took its present form 10,000 years ago.  The Hoei eruption of 1707 affected Osaka and Tokyo (lava flow reached this city and the ash was several inches thick).  Since 781, Fuji has erupted 16 times, or an average of every 77 years.  But that Hoei eruption was the last one, and that was 306 years ago!  Japan will long suffer from the Fukushima nuclear cataclysm, and will be decimated by more earthquakes and tsunamis, but a serious eruption of Mount Fujii will be catastrophic.  This is one of Hokusai's Mount Fuji prints, but he was born in 1760, more than 50 years after the last eruption.

3.  How long will Shinzo Abe remain as prime minister?  He was PM in 2006.  Seven years and seven prime ministers later, he is back.  Abenomics has worked.  Around the time he was elected for his second stint, the Nikkei was below 9000.  It now flirts with 15,000:

But the Nikkei was once up almost to 40,000:

The differential comparison is actually considerably worse, for the 2013 value of 39,000 is today closer to 75,000, or the Nikkei has a value today when at 15,000 only 20% of what it once was in 1989.

However, PM Abe has: 

• pissed off China and South Korea with his nationalistic policies (which is affecting trade), 
• lowered the value of the yen, which helps exporter companies but is seriously increasing the price of commodities at home, especially by increasing the consumer tax
• proposed a more aggressive defense budget (where the Constitution will need to be changed) and 
• has indicated a strong preference for more nuclear power.      

When all these policies begin to take effect, he will become so unpopular that he will by the end of next year be kicked out of office.  Guaranteed!  But that is the Japanese way of conducting national leadership.  Their head of government makes difficult decisions for the good of the country (they absolutely, for example, must reactivate their nuclear reactors, for those 50 currently idle facilities have a value of at least half a trillion dollars if  replaced by other options, and the masses are strongly against this).

4.  I need some help from you readers out there, especially if you're from Japan.  There is a long story to this, but there is a statue in the Jindaiji (Tokyo) Botanical Park that looks exactly like my deceased wife Pearl:

The sculpturer is Yasuo Bussi, and he created this statue in 1961.  Interestingly enough, Pearl looked like this in 1961, but it's unimaginable that she was the model.  I discussed with the staff of the park about the name of the model, and they said they would contact me if they were successful in their search.  However, it has been more than a year since, so my question to you if you live in Japan is, do you have any idea?  I Googled Yasuo Bussi and Yasuo Bushi, and found nothing.  Thank you for your possible assistance.

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THE HORROR OF VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

Last year I had a posting entitled, RAINBOWS, KILAUEA AND GOLF.  For reasons that confound me, this entry regularly registers among the top ten viewed for the day.  I don't think "golf" is the reason.  Possibly, "rainbows" might be the attraction, for  TEACHING RAINBOWS is regularly pinged.

I think, though, that volcanoes are the greater allure, for EYJAFJALLAOKULL, KATLA AND KILAUEA has received considerable attention.  People are particularly interested in natural disasters, and volcanic eruptions are constantly occurring.  That's big E to the right in 2010, causing considerable grief to European flights.

The Washington Post recently had an article about why volcanoes are erupting all over the place right now.  Of the theories mentioned, one had to do with a minute change in the rotation of Planet Earth, and second...GLOBAL CLIMATE WARMING!  Love this topic, for volcanic eruptions make for spectacular photos.  So here is another one from Iceland.

The journal, Terra Nova, showed that changes in the Earth's rotation tended to be followed by increases in global volcanic activity.  Basically, cracks are induced due to stress variations and magma rises to the surface.

The greater cause, however, is suspected to be climate change, for historically, the loss of planetary ice not only increases sea levels, but results in a significant spike in volcanic activity.  For example, 19,000 years ago, glaciation was at peak, with even much of Europe under ice.  Mind you, this is a time in history when farming had not yet developed.  Volcanic eruptions became much more frequent.  But it takes time, for it was between 12,000 and 7,000 years ago that the global level of volcanic activity rose by up to six times.  Iceland, already one of the most active sites, in that period was 30 times more active.  Why?  Ice sheets are heavy, where the absence of ice reduces rock stress, allowing magma to ooze up to the surface.  I might add that volcanic eruptions add carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

Activity is waning in the Philippines and Papua New Guinea, but has picked up in Iceland (above), Ecuador Indonesia, Mexico, Japan and Hawaii.  Mount Ontake, 130 miles west of Tokyo suddenly erupted this past Saturday trapping 250 hikers:

Thirty six are confirmed dead and 32 are still missing.  Watch this spectacular footage.

There are 110 live volcanoes throughout Japan, and the biggest worry is Mount Fuji, located 60 miles from Tokyo:

While the last major eruption was in 1707, scientists have linked the Great Tohoku earthquake of 2011 to risky subsurface conditions under Mount Fuji and have expressed considerable concern.

The front page headline of the Honolulu Star Advertiser was Kilauea's UNSTOPPABLE FLOW, referring to the molten lava heading for Pahoa.  While the flow has slowed, there seems to be a sense of inevitability that the town will in time be consumed.  No plans are being considered to slow or stop the activity for fear that the damage could occur somewhere else.  That photo shown on the front page was a failed attempt in 1986 to stop the advance into Kalapana using water.

Volcanic eruptions, tsunamis and earthquakes happen right away.  Hurricanes and lava flows are incessant, and all you can do is hope that the storm fizzles or goes elsewhere, and the eruption to stop.  Kilauea (right) has now been exuding molten rock for more than 30 years.  What are the odds?

As I assess this posting, it occurred to me that I shouldn't have used horror in the title, for these two depicted eruptions are almost trivial relative to the truly great ones.  As for example:

• The 1980 Mount St. Helens explosion, while only producing around one cubic kilometer of material, about one-fourth of a cubic mile, was nevertheless much more severe than Kilauea and Mount Ontake.  Well, actually, I did some research, and it turns out that in 31 years, Kilauea has produced about one cubic mile of lava, so I guess, this is not inconsequential.
• The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora on what is now Indonesia emitted 160 cubic kilometers, and caused global cooling.
• In 1783 Laki on Iceland erupted, and killed 6 million people, including a million in Japan (from famine), but less than 10,000 on the island.

• Between 1650 and 1500 BC, Santorini (today to the right) in the Mediterranean destroyed the Minoan civilization, and cause famine in China, leading to the collapse of the Xia dynasty.
• Around 70,000 years ago, Lake Toba (over a volcano), also Indonesia, had an eruption that, it is said, killed most of humanity, leaving, perhaps 3,000 humans alive.
• How they get this info should be interesting, but 132 million years ago, when Africa and South American had not yet separated, there was an eruption of 8,600 cubic kilometers.

So, mentally change "horror" in the title above to "anguish."

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Tropical storm Phanfone is now at 60 MPH, will attain Category 3 strength, head straight for Japan, but, if computer models are right, will pass north of the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam, and should turn northwest, skirting the eastern coastline of the country:

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THE RISKIEST CITIES IN THE WORLD

       From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

        DAY  USA  WORLD   Brazil    India    South Africa

June     9    1093     4732         1185       246       82

July    22     1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12     1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9     1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21     1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25      2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30      3880    14748       1224       299      465

Jan     14       4142    15512         1151        189       712              

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

          25       2414    10578        1582        119      144

Mar     2        1989      9490       1726       110      194

          31       1115      12301        3950       458       58

April   6         906     11787         4211        631       37

May    4         853     13667         3025     3786      59 

         26         607     12348         2399     3842     101

June    1         287    10637        2346      3205        95

          30         249      8505        2127        991      383

           7          251      8440        1595        817      411

         13          307      8117        1613        623      633

Summary:

• Suddenly, Indonesia yesterday had the most number of new cases at 47,899, with Spain #3 to Brazil's #2.
• However, while Indonesia also had the second most number of new deaths with 864, Spain only had 13 new deaths.  Something does not read right here.
• Africa is showing a serious ascent, and not only South Africa.

For the topic of the day, I typed into my computer, which is the deadliest city in the world, and saw that Tijuana is it.  I was looking for those sites threatened by natural hazards, but since I found this information:

• #1  Tijuana, Mexico:  138 homicides/100K people.  Drug trades and human trafficking by gangs are why.
• #2  Acapulco, Mexico:  The playground for the Hollywood set is now in a drug war.  111 homicides/100K people.  You might adjust your vacation plan if these two Mexican cities were being considered.
• Caracas, Venezuela:  100 murders/100K people, cause by poverty, poor law/order.  Kind of forget Central and much of South America

Incidentally, #1 in the USA with 65 murders/100K residents is St. Louis.  Next Baltimore with 58...and you'd never have guessed #3 correctly...Birmingham, Alabama with 51 murders/100K.  Yikes, Baton Rouge is #6 with 32. I spent almost four years there.  And, New Orleans is #7 with 31, but I knew that was problem back then.  #13 is Washington, D.C. at 25, and spent three years there.  I partly left because I thought it was a dangerous place.  Wait a minute, where is Chicago?  #28 with only 18.  I don't see New York City on this list of 65 worst. But then, it depends on which study.  The map on the left is from Statista.  Click on it to read the details.

So the United States is not too bad about murders.  However, the World Peace Index says that the USA is only the 128th safest country, meaning we are way below average.   Progress, for the latest index that just came out says we are better than that:  #122.  Did it help that Biden is now president?

• #1      Iceland
• #5      Slovenia (huh, where is this?)
• #28    Mauritius (I want to go back there, one of my favorite places)
• #41    Botswana (Hawaii's antipode, and #1 for not being involved in wars)
• #50    Vietnam
• #67    Kazakhstan
• #80    Kosovo
• #83    Rwanda
• #87    Cuba
• #100  China
• #113  Thailand
• #122  USA
• #123  South Africa (which I have avoided)
• #140  Mexico
• #141  Iran
• #143  Israel (#1 for danger from wars)
• #151  North Korea
• #154  Russia
• #163  Afghanistan

Here is a particularly interesting quote:

• The global economic impact of violence was $14.96 trillion PPP in 2020, equivalent to 11.6 per cent of global GDP or $1,942 per person. The year-on-year increase was primarily due to higher levels of military expenditure. 

Of course our USA is the culprit here:

Well, returning to the topic of the day, I actually knew the answer about cities in peril, and selected this topic because I wanted to feature the location of the Summer Olympics, Tokyo.  According to Business Insider:

• #1  Tokyo-Yokohama, Japan
• 57 million in jeopardy, and death could be instantaneous. 
• I was in a 7.1 earthquake there.  That was a mere blip for people living in Tokyo.  But what was the highest Moment Magnitude earthquake you've experienced?  The Richter Scale is now obsolete.
• Earthquakes, typhoons, floods and tsunamis.
• 
  I might add that Honolulu is similarly in danger, but we never make any of these lists.  I wonder why.  
• Maybe it's because a hurricane has never made landfall over my island of Oahu in recorded history. 
• An 1868 earthquake on the Big Island might have been at 8.1 MM.  But the worst for Oahu was only a 4.8 in 1948, and even that one was offshore.
• 
  The 1946 April Fool's Day tsunami from Alaska reached an amplitude of 55 feet.  
• But that was the Big Island.
• Supposedly a million years or so ago part of Lanai fell into the ocean, creating a 1000 foot tsunami.

• 
  Then there was the 2000 foot tsunami 1.5 million years ago when a third of the northern portion of Molokai crashed into the sea.
• I'm writing a book where a larger chunk of the Big Island crashes into the sea, creating a mega tsunami headed for the West Coast of the USA.
• 
  Oahu experienced wave heights up to 36 feet at Kaena Point and 27 feet in the region around Kahuku Point.  I have visited this latter site where huge boulders can still be seen inland.  Waikiki went up to 9 feet, with Honolulu Harbor only attaining 4 feet.  Reefs apparently help protect.
• I haven't found a good reference about a serious tsunami to hit Hawaii emanating from South America.  Then, Waikiki and Honolulu should be in severe danger.
• However the 9.5 MM 23May1960 Chile tsunami which killed 61 in Hilo with a wave amplitude up to 20 feet, only got up to 5 feet in Honolulu.  I was in California for that one.

• 
  #2  Manila, Philippines
• 34.6 million people.
• Typhoons are particularly a threat.  The three most powerful typhoons ever, all at 190 MPH and stronger, made landfall here.
• Earthquakes are possible.

• 
  #3  Pearl River Delta. China
• 34.5 million in the cities of Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Dongguan, Macau and Guangzhou.
• Storm surge, cyclonic winds and floods.
• #4  Osaka-Kobe, Japan
• 32.1 million.
• The 1995 Great Hanshin earthquake killed 6,000, causing $100 billion in damage.
• Also tsunamis and typhoons.
• 
  #5  Jakarta, Indonesia
• 27.7 million.
• 40% of the city is below sea level.
• Floods.
• Others in the top ten were Nagoya, Kolkata, Shanghai, Los Angeles and Teheran.
• I have been to all but Teheran.

Cities@risk outlook, a more comprehensive assessment, indicates that Asia is home to 99 of the World's 100 cities facing the greatest environmental challenges.  

• 576 of the world's largest cities were included in all aspects of the environment.
• #1 worst was Jakarta, and #2 New Delhi.
• Europe is home to 14 of the 20 safest cities, and Glasgow, host for the next UN climate conference in November, is the least vulnerable city to this problem
• India had 13 of the top 20 cities, with air quality being the problem.

• 
  China had 37 terrible cities.  If you've been to China, especially in January and February, as I have several times, you don't want to go back, and I won't.
• Interestingly enough, while African cities were fairly safe, 38 of the 40 cities from that continent are most at risk from global warming.
• The most vulnerable U.S. city is Los Angeles, mostly for air quality.
• This article has colorful graphics, which you need t click on to read:

• Business Standard provided the following:

So what it comes down to are the parameters used to determine worst/deadliest/riskiest/whatever city in the world.

Conversely, which are the safest cities in the world?  And this is a shocker.  The Economist in 2019 did such a ranking incorporating, digital, health, infrastructure and personal security.  Based on the above, incredibly, Tokyo was rated the SAFEST!!!

• #1    Tokyo
• #2    Singapore
• #3    Osaka
• #4    Amsterdam
• #5    Sydney
• #6    Toronto
• #7    Washington, DC (what???...I lived there...personal security is a huge problem)
• #8    Copenhagen
• #8    Seoul
• #10  Melbourne
• #11  Chicago
• #13  San Francisco
• #15  New York City
• #17  Los Angeles
• #23  Paris
• #31  Beijing
• #37  Moscow
• #47  Bangkok
• #52  New Delhi
• #60  Lagos

How can the same city be the most hazardous and the safest?  It depends on the parameters of consideration.

Maybe it doesn't matter, for things can very rapidly change.  I recall way back around 1980 when a survey showed that the Falklands was the safest place to live on Planet Earth.  Then in 1982 came the war with the UK and everything changed.

In all the above no study even mentioned Mount Fuji as to why Tokyo might be in danger.  While the last major eruption occurred in 1707, there apparently is a link to the 2011 Great Tohoku Earthquake that caused the tsunami and nuclear cataclysm.  And this volcano is only 60 miles away from Tokyo.  Also too, there is a 70% probability of a major earthquake in Tokyo or off the coast in the next 30 years.  

But you can't spend all your time worrying about natural or man-made disasters no matter where you live.  Honolulu is particularly vulnerable to a major hurricane, serious earthquake, damaging tsunami, or perhaps even a nuclear bomb accidentally exploding in storage at Pearl Harbor.  Those are the conditions one faces in Paradise.  I love it here and am not the least bit worried.

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