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Saturday, April 25, 2020

COVID-19: A Different Reality

From Worldometer, I extracted data to look closely at new deaths from yesterday:

DAY     China   Italy   USA   Spain   Germany   S. Korea  WORLD

Apr  15         1    578   1558      324            97               3        6351
        16         ?    525   1796      318          139               4        6239
        17   1290    575   1338      298          151               1        6857
        18         ?    482   1090        41            74               2        4888
        19         ?    433   1117      410            10               2        4344
        20         ?    454   1202      399            64               2        4307
        21         ?    534   1481      430            86               1        5362
        22         ?    437     931      435          125               1        5008
        23         ?    464   1435      440            54               2        5033
        24         0?  420     718      367            78               0?      4200
        25         0?  415   1073      378            59               0?      4650

Summary:
  • New deaths increased for the World and USA.
  • The population of South/Central America is almost double that of the USA.  This area seems to be increasing in catching COVID-19:
    • Brazil  2229
    • Peru  3683
    • Ecuador doubled just from yesterday
    • Mexico  1239
  • Total cases/million is a deceptive statistic, for it all depends on the availability of test kits.  However:
    • World  372
    • Spain  4786
    • Italy 3231
    • Qatar  3248
    • USA  2857
    • China 58???
  • Deaths/million, however, is a meaningful impact:
    • Spain  4786
    • Belgium  3911
    • Switzerland  3339
    • Italy  3231
    • USA  2857
    • Portugal  2294
    • World  372
    • China  58??
    • South Korea  5
    • Japan  3
    • Singapore  2
    • Pakistan  1?
    • South Africa  1
    • Afghanistan  1?
    • Thailand 0.7 (when I visited this country in February, it was #2 in cases, next to China at #1)
    • India  0.6?

Switching to the subject for this Saturday, I've always been fascinated with colors.  My favorite course in college was Color.  Thus I felt particularly sorry for  a classmate on my floor of Wilbur Hall who could only see black, white and shades of gray. 

Maybe that's why I dress too colorfully.  I have travelled just to visit cherry blossoms and tulips. On one of my around the world trips in the Spring of 2012 I only stopped in two foreign countries:  Japan and the Netherlands.

Of course, I love looking at rainbows. Thus, color mysteries intrigue me.

Ever wonder if your pet sees the same color as you?  The answer is they don't.  Their eyes see two colors and they are more pastel.  Jumping spiders see ultraviolet and green; bees--ultraviolet, blue and yellow; crustaceans--blue and red; snakes--some color and infrared.  But all apes see exactly the same as us humans, and so do African monkeys...but not South American monkeys, who don't really see red.  You can thus deduct something evolutionary just from colors.  Here is just one example, humans versus a butterfly:


A rattlesnake can see through the black bag:


When my wife looked at a flower, what she called blue was usually a shade towards purple or maroon, and not exactly blue.  Perhaps I am too much a purist, and she was a generalist.  Not an uncommon difference.  This is a Blue Climbing Rose, and you can get it from Amazon.com.  But it's not blue.

There is a further refinement about what we see.  The color depends on how you grew up.  Your brain on birth was mostly a blank slate similar to humans and apes, to which personal experience was added, leading to the fact that we all have different perception capabilities.  If your brain can't correctly figure out what it sees based on what it knows, it makes up a logical conclusion. 

On the internet a couple of years ago was a dress that some viewed as gold and white, while others saw it as black and royal blue, or something else.  This amorphous outcome, it turned out, just reinforced the fact that our minds are all different.

The following from Current Biology.  First of all, the actual dress was brown and a light blue, but more people said they saw either black and blue or gold and white:
  • gold/white by older people and women, and these personally favored a cool illuminant like a blue sky
  • blue/black by those who envisioned a warm illuminant, like incandescent light
  • blue/brown by subjects who assumed a neutral illuminant

Why am I showing you those above images?  Mostly to indicate that the study was quite thorough.  (If I were you, I'd stop reading here and go to the end for the usual joke or entertainment special, for it gets complicated.)  Selecting just the graph (click on it to see a larger version):
  • 57% saw black/blue
  • 30%        gold/white
  • 11%        blue/brown (which is the correct answer)
  •   2%        other combinations
  • females saw more gold/white than males
  • the older you were, the more you would say you saw gold/white
  • if the dress image was made blurry, the gold/white percentage dropped
The scientific explanation?  
  • A color percept is the visual system’s best guess given available sense data and an internal model of the world []. 
  • Visual cortex shows a bias for colors associated with daylight [, ]; this bias may represent the brain’s internal model. 
  • We hypothesize that some brains interpret the surprising chromatic distribution (Figure 1B) as evidence that a portion of the spectral radiance is caused by a color bias of the illuminant [] (see Supplemental Information for further discussion). 
  • Some people may expect a cool illuminant, discount short wavelengths, and perceive white/gold; others may favor a warm illuminant, discount longer wavelengths, and see blue/black. 
  • The remaining people may assume a neutral illuminant and see blue/brown. But what causes the individual differences? People experience different illuminants and adapt []. 
  • If exposure informs one’s prior, we might predict that older subjects and women are more likely to assume sky-blue illumination because they are more likely than younger subjects and men to have a daytime chronotype []. 
  • Consistent with this prediction, women and older people were more likely to see white/gold. Conversely, night owls may be more likely to assume a warmer illuminant [] common for artificial light, and see blue/black. 
  • Alternatively, all people may have a similar prior on the illuminant, but different priors on other aspects of the scene that interact to produce different percepts of the dress.
This concept of perceived reality explains why some believe in God, while others think that the whole concept is merely a mash of folk tales.  It also partially elucidates on why we almost all  as we mature figure out that Santa Claus is phony, but that God is real.  In the U.S., this God belief rate is between 80-90%.  Even higher in Muslim countries.  Perhaps on Sunday I'll further delve into this conundrum.

That was my lesson for the day.  Moving on, one tends to form favorite songs in time of life transitions.  In 1962 I graduated from Stanford and took a job with a sugar company in Naalehu, which had no TV nor radio.  Even my classmates who went to Africa and the Philippines had radio stations.  I also suffered through the toughest job I ever had (that was good, for it built character), met someone who less than four months later became my wife, until she passed away.   Here are the top songs of 1962.

Of course, your favorites many times are not in the top 30, or 100.  For example, high on my personal list was Johnny Get Angry by Joanie Sommers (right).  But not because of my wife.  My sugar company placed me in a trainee cottage which I shared with someone from Sudan.  He was called Johnny and this was his favorite song.  We worked out a system where he cooked one night, me the next and a restaurant the third.  The problem is that he tended to prepare brains and parts of animals I never knew existed.  He returned home and I fully expected Johnny to become a national leader in something.  Totally lost track of him,

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Friday, April 24, 2020

COVID-19: A New Project Apollo

My recent postings have been too technical, long and disjointed.  I hereby promise to better crystallize the essence, and let me begin by asking you to click on Worldometer to access the information I have been providing.  I'll also condense the summary of new deaths:

DAY     China   Italy   USA   Spain   Germany   S. Korea  WORLD

Apr  15         1    578   1558      324            97               3        6351
        16         ?    525   1796      318          139               4        6239
        17   1290    575   1338      298          151               1        6857
        18         ?    482   1090        41            74               2        4888
        19         ?    433   1117      410            10               2        4344
        20         ?    454   1202      399            64               2        4307
        21         ?    534   1481      430            86               1        5362
        22         ?    437     931      435          125               1        5008
        23         ?    464   1435      440            54               2        5033
        24         0?  420     718      367            78               0?      4200

Summary:
    I've long been thinking about how the world could work together to combat this novel coronavirus pandemic.  We haven't because of President Donald Trump.  But there is a simple solution.

    Everyone must know something about the Manhattan Project (MP) of World War II to build atomic bombs and Project Apollo (PA) to land Man on the Moon.  I could have picked either one for vanquishing COVID-19.  However, MP eventually led to the potential for a nuclear winter, thus possibly wiping out Humanity.  PA was both a technological and political victory that ultimately ended the Cold War.  It cost the equivalent of $160 billion (2020 dollars) spread out over eleven years.  Appropriately enough, in Greek/Roman mythology, among many other roles he had, Apollo was god of diseases and healing.

    The novel coronavirus is not even close to being as treacherous as Hitler conquering the world or the end of Humanity.  However, COVID-19 has awesomely crippled the world economy and will forever change human relations.  Just the U.S. has found $2.5 trillion to strike back, already 15 times more than the cost of Apollo.  While 3% of the world perished in WWII, this latest Pandemic has killed less than 0.027% of our world population, and, with the death curve already plateauing, at the very worst, perhaps 0.1% of us will die.

    Suggesting a New Project Apollo (NPA) is dead on arrival, for there is no way that our present PUS (President of the United States) will even consider such a ridiculous proposition...to him.  We can't wait until November 3.  All this should have started months ago.

    The best two hopes we had were covered in my postings of President Trump resigning for the good the people, followed by he himself becoming incapacitated with COVID-19.  I can't even fantasize that VP Pence will do anything imaginative.  However, if aliens from outer space (best I can do at this time) kidnap both Trump and Pence, of all the ironies, Nancy Pelosi becomes President of the United States.

    How will President Pelosi proceed?  To begin, there is a sum of  $25 billion just appropriated by Congress for testing.  The next recovery package can cover whatever else is required.

    What will the New Project Apollo do?
    • The leader of the country takes full responsibility for:
      • Testing:
        • A billion 5-minute tests to cover the next year.
        • A million contact tracers (maybe the U.S,. military) working with Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Google.
        • A billion instant antibody tests, also for the next year.
      • Vaccine development:
        • Remember that we still don't have any vaccine for the SARS coronavirus, which was that pandemic of 2003, and COVID-19 is also a coronavirus.
        • Also consider that we still don't have a vaccine for HIV
          • or for the common cold.
          • or for cancer.
    • Integration of the national program into an international effort. The World needs to work in partnership to develop that vaccine, just what German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for yesterday.  Yes, the World Health Organization has been less than adequate in the past, but they are the key to insuring that the whole world is covered.  If anything provide additional funds.
    That's it.  But as my books have noted, simple solutions are so difficult to realize.  Certainly, someone out there must have a better game plan than my aliens scheme.  It's in your hands.

    With COVID-19 conquered, we can then work together for global warming and world peace.  By 2100 it could well be that that the value of this novel coronavirus was that it showed us a way to a safer and secure Planet Earth for Humanity.

    It's Friday, and someone sent this to me.  She probably knew what I was most desperate for:


    For this one, find the camel:


    That should have been easy.  No gimmicks.  No tricks.

    Ending the week with more nostalgic music.  Today, Top Songs of 1961.  What I remember most is a girlfriend arranging and paying for a night out in San Francisco for dinner and the opening of West Side Story.

    I was one year from graduation.  Several of my close friends wanted to join President John Kennedy's Peace Corps, and the FBI came to me for character checks.  I had to do something similar, so I applied to help out the sugar industry in Hawaii.  They would be earning $99/month, while I would be getting $500/month.  They would be going to some marginal developing nation while I would be returning to Paradise.

    I guess this is again getting extended, but here in 10 minutes are the top 30 songs to make you SMILE.  Frankly, I don't agree with this list, but that's because my mind is different from WatchMojo's.  My posting tomorrow will delve into why people think differently.  Oh well, here is a second ten minutes of songs to make you SMILE.

    One reason to smile.  Captain Brett Crozier of the USS Theodore Roosevelt will return as commanding officer of this aircraft carrier.

    -

    Wednesday, April 22, 2020

    COVID-19: How to Reduce Deaths

    Worldometer:

    The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances. The day is reset after midnight GMT+0. The list of countries and territories and their continental regional classification is based on the United Nations Geoscheme. Sources are provided under "Latest Updates". Learn more about Worldometer's COVID-19 data

    New deaths:

    DAY     China   Italy   USA   Spain   Germany   S. Korea  WORLD

    Apr    1         7  727     589      463            83               3        3239
              2         6  760     522      709          158               4        4183
              3         4  766     716      587          123               5        3822
              4         4  681     769      546            55               3        4755
              5         3  525     909      471          106               6        3595
              6         2  636     874      528            78               3        4414
              7         ?  604   1371      556            95               6        6291
              8         2  542   1400      628          176               8        5431
              9         2  610   1286      446            82               4        3779
            10         1  570   1739      523          121               4        6506
            11         3  619   1476      399             ?                3        5358
            12         ?  431   1090      366            74               3        4533
            13         2  566   1147      280            21               3        4489
            14         ?  602   1754      300          100               5        5726
            15         1  578   1558      324            97               3        6351
            16         ?  525   1796      318          139               4        6239
            17   1290  575   1338      298          151               1        6857
            18         ?  482   1090        41            74               2        4888
            19         ?  433   1117      410            10               2        4344
            20         ?  454   1202      399            64               2        4307
            21         ?  534   1481      430            86               1        5362
            22         ?  437     931      435          125               1        5008
            23         ?  464   1435      440            54               2        5033

    Summary:
    • Not a particularly good day for Humanity, although the World, Italy, Spain and the USA have clearly plateaued, with new deaths declining on a three-day average.
    • Something is either fabulous, or not going right, about China and Japan.
    • India only had five new deaths, and nothing particularly bad is occurring on the African continent.
    • The antibody test program just completed in New York State showed that 14% suffered from COVID-19, or theoretically, extended to the general population, there should have been 2.72 million novel coronavirus cases.  But the confirmed cases only add up to 257,216.  This means that a lot more people were infected than authorities thought--99%--and did not know they were contagious.  This is that dangerous group that will walk around and infect others if COVID-19 isn't allowed to run its course before people return to work and schools.  Conversely, I would guess that there were a lot more deaths than what has so far been reported, so the 78% figure will drop, but even if it declines to 50%, that is still too high for any quick return to normalcy.  THE  BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ANTIBODY TESTS SHOULD BE MADE UNIVERSAL BEFORE ANY HASTY QUARANTINE REMOVAL DECISION.  Unfortunately, not only are these post-test kits in short supply, but many of them are inaccurate. 
    • A month ago the World Health Organization said that 3.4 to 3.8% of those who contracted COVID-19 died.  I then speculated that this was only because they did not know how many actually had this disease because they were not tested.  I further indicated that when all is said and done, the death rate of this novel coronavirus would drop to 0.6%.  New York also today reported that this death rate, based on the antibody test project, indicates that "only" 0.5% of those infected would die.  Mind you, the seasonal flu kills 0.1%, so COVID-19 is still five times more fatal.
    • The economy will need to suffer a little longer, perhaps into the summer.
    • This will lead to wholesale bankruptcies, which will be a financial opportunity, for most of those major companies going that route to eliminate debts will still operate, and some will be attractive investments upon recovery.  I recall in 2008 buying a whole lot of General Motors (GM) stocks because they were so cheap.  They went bankrupt.  I thought I lost my investment.  However, the next day, they became GMX, with my funds still intact.  The value quickly jumped and I sold a few days later.  I am thus today not as poor as I would have been had I not taken that step.
    **************************

    I had earlier composed the following, but decided not to post it, for it made fun of something too serious.  However, when I looked at my blog site this morning, I apparently had clicked the wrong button, and an incomplete version was accidentally thrust into the public, meaning it had been active overnight.  So, here it is again, but with the alert that, while still perhaps too sardonic, you should treat this like a Trump coronavirus joke.


    Age of Coronavirus Deaths

    We are collecting and analyzing the data from all US States. In the meantime, below we show the data provided by New York City Health as of April 14:
    AGE
    Number of DeathsShare of deathsWith underlying conditionsWithout underlying conditionsUnknown if with underlying cond. Share of deaths
    of unknown + w/o cond.
    0 - 17 years old 
    3
    0.04%
    3
    0
    0
    0%
    18 - 44 years old 
    309
    4.5%
    244
    25
    40
    1.0%
    45 - 64 years old 
    1,581
    23.1%
    1,343
    59
    179
    3.5%
    65 - 74 years old 
    1,683
    24.6%
    1,272
    26
    385
    6.0%
    75+ years old
    3,263
    47.7%
    2,289
    27
    947
    14.2%
    TOTAL
    6,839
    100%
    5,151
    137
    1,551
    24.68%You eliminate nursing home deaths, and you cut the death rate in half.
    So to repeat:  you eliminate nursing home deaths, and you cut the death rate in half.

    Let's say half of COVID-19 deaths are of old people in high density living.  About nursing homes in the U.S.:
    • Number:  16,100
    • Residents:  1.5 million
    Not sure what percent of those "old" people who died actually came from nursing homes, but it appears that these sites are are the hot spots in every state, except Hawaii, so far.

    Why do nursing homes experience so many deaths?
    • Everyone is old.
    • Most have all kinds of pre-conditions.
    • Concentrated living conditions.
    • Essentially impossible to keep 6 feet away from others all the time.
    But how does a coronavirus infection get started?
    • Staff and incoming stuff, like food, towels, etc.
    • Family and friends who visit.
    • Residents who sneak out to do something.
    Most nursing homes now prohibit any visits from anyone.  The administration thoroughly checks their staff when they enter, and they all wear masks at work.

    Thus, the likely infection source is a resident who goes out, which is largely allowed.  How do you prevent this?  First, apply all the guilt factors to work on their conscious.  Prohibit them from leaving, which could be legally illegal.  Or pay them to stay home.

    How much?  As much as you can afford.  Or, get to your congressional delegates and have them insert a clause in the next COVID-19 legislative recovery package to provide only $10,000 for every resident of a nursing home who survives this pandemic.  In a way, this evens things out, as this aged group doesn't get any of the COVID-19 survival money in the congressional handouts.  Doing the calculations, this equitable allowance to nursing home residents is only $10 billion.  How little is this sum?  Less than one-half of one percent of the $2.5 trillion thus far allocated by Congress.

    Is 15 Craigside (if you clicked on that link, watch the clip) a nursing home?  Maybe, but maybe not.  It is a seniors community.  Just in case, our congressional delegation should be able to insert somewhere in the appropriations certain qualification exceptions, like 15 Craigside.  I saw this done when I once worked in the U.S. Senate, not for pandemics, but with respect to renewable energy.

    Actually you can avoid all that subterfuge by opening things up to anyone 80 and older.  They represent around 1.4% of the population, bringing up those eligible to 4.5 million people, or 1.5% of the total economic package passed by Congress.  For the record, I'm not 80 yet.

    Ah, all the above was written with tongue largely in cheek.  Don't take this too seriously.  This was my joke for the day...on the other hand....

    *****************************

    Someone sent me this 15-minute clip as a particularly memorable motivational speech, by U.S. Navy Admiral William H. McRaven.  I agree.  These 15 minutes could well change your life.  The younger you are, the more you won't appreciate it...but the more you consider what was said, you will only become wiser and more successful.  About McRaven:
    • McRaven is credited for organizing and overseeing the execution of Operation Neptune Spear,[16] the special ops raid that led to the death of Osama bin Laden on May 2, 2011.
    • From 2015 to 2018, he was the chancellor of The University of Texas System.  (He resigned for health reasons.)
    • In August 2018, McRaven expressed support for former CIA Director John O. Brennan, whose security clearance had recently been revoked by the Trump Administration. He authored an open letter to President Donald Trump in The Washington Post entitled "Revoke my security clearance, too, Mr. President", in which he affirmed his regard for Brennan, his former colleague, and offered criticism of the decisions and personal behavior of President Trump.[29] McRaven said of Brennan, "He is a man of unparalleled integrity, whose honesty and character have never been in question ... except by those who don't know him." Of Trump, McRaven wrote, "Through your actions, you have embarrassed us in the eyes of our children, humiliated us on the world stage and, worst of all, divided us as a nation."[30]
    Note the date of that letter.  He sent it way before this COVID-19 Pandemic occurred.

    This is a posting of I should have...but didn't.  I should have stopped with McRaven, but will continue my nostalgic quest and end with the Top Songs of 1960.  Ten minutes for the 30 best.

    -