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Monday, April 20, 2020

COVID-19: Who will President Trump Next Fire?



The coronavirus COVID-19 is affecting 210 countries and territories around the world and 2 international conveyances. The day is reset after midnight GMT+0. The list of countries and territories and their continental regional classification is based on the United Nations Geoscheme. Sources are provided under "Latest Updates". Learn more about Worldometer's COVID-19 data


New deaths:

DAY     China   Italy   USA   Spain   Germany   S. Korea  WORLD

Apr    1         7  727     589      463            83               3        3239
          2         6  760     522      709          158               4        4183
          3         4  766     716      587          123               5        3822
          4         4  681     769      546            55               3        4755
          5         3  525     909      471          106               6        3595
          6         2  636     874      528            78               3        4414
          7         ?  604   1371      556            95               6        6291
          8         2  542   1400      628          176               8        5431
          9         2  610   1286      446            82               4        3779
        10         1  570   1739      523          121               4        6506
        11         3  619   1476      399             ?                3        5358
        12         ?  431   1090      366            74               3        4533
        13         2  566   1147      280            21               3        4489
        14         ?  602   1754      300          100               5        5726
        15         1  578   1558      324            97               3        6351
        16         ?  525   1796      318          139               4        6239
        17   1290  575   1338      298          151               1        6857
        18         ?  482   1090        41            74               2        4888
        19         ?  433   1117      410            10               2        4344
        20         ?  454   1202      399            64               2        4307

Summary:
  • The World deaths/million people rate has further declined for the third straight day.
  • Italy, the USA and Germany had slight increases.
  • Not sure what is happening with China, India and Japan.
Surely, this can't be you, for all the TV-watching you're doing, but click on this to view a really neat graphic series MAKING SENSE OF ALL THOSE NUMBERS, sent by colleagues from the Florida Solar Energy Center.

About President Trump's rush to prioritize the economy over unneeded deaths, let us look at Sweden, relative to Norway and Denmark:

                      Cases   Deaths  Deaths/million

Sweden         14,777   1,580         156
Denmark         7,515      364           63
Norway           7,127      181           33
Finland            3,868        98           18
Iceland            1,773        10           29

According to Politico:

STOCKHOLM — When the history of the global response to the coronavirus pandemic is written, one corner of Europe could find itself in sharp focus: the Nordics.  Despite their clear political, economic and cultural similarities, these small nations have gone about fighting the virus in very different ways.
Norway, Denmark and Finland, with a combined population of around 15 million people, have been on lockdown for around a month. Schools, businesses and public spaces have been shuttered as the governments there have sought to bring a hard stop to the spread of the disease.
Meanwhile, Sweden’s 10 million citizens have been largely free to go about their business as normal: Schools and shops are open, gatherings of up to 50 people are allowed, and outdoor sports continue across the country, with the strategy more about slowing the virus than stopping it.

The Swedish decision is a forerunner of what President Donald Trump prioritizes:  the economy over deaths.  Fox news, once made jokes about Swedish culture.  Now, it is a big fan.  In a war, you will have deaths.  Most of the deaths are of the old, who don't anymore contribute to the society.  Are we better off in the long run with a few more deaths, but a stronger economy?


To start with, it’s a myth that Sweden is doing nothing about the virus. Most Swedes have changed their habits a lot. Schools for older kids are closed, as are universities. People are working from home, when they can, and the elderly are being urged to keep to themselves. Gatherings of over 50 people are prohibited, and ski resorts are closed. Restaurants and bars are allowing table service only, and grocery stores are installing glass dividers between customers and cashiers. People who go to Stockholm may be stunned to see bars and cafés with customers, but they’re seeing only the Swedes who choose to run higher risks. They’re not seeing all the Swedes who are staying home.

    Sweden is betting that this half-way approach with concern will avoid any second wave. The hospitals are challenged, but not overwhelmed.  This is a socialist country, so that would be expected.  But how can one nation among Scandinavia react so differently?  Their thinking is that, sure, you could save lives by dropping the traffic speed limit to 10 MPH, but why not 40?  Important, though, to keep families away from nursing homes.  
    So Sweden is staying the course. If you wanted to frame things in a zero-sum manner, you could say that either Sweden makes a fool of itself, or it makes a fool of everyone else.

    With all the above looseness, Sweden's deaths/million figure is half that of the UK, which is in lockdown.  Maybe Donald Trump has a point.  Here with Swedish Prime Minister Stefan Lofven.

    How is Hawaii doing relative to the Nation and World?  The USA is at 126 Deaths/Million People, while the World is at 22 D/MP.  Note Sweden is at 156 D/MP.  New York is at 1651 D/MP.   The Wyoming has had only 2 deaths (3.5 deaths/million), South Dakota 7 (8.0 D/MP), Alaska 7 (9.6 D/MP) , and Hawaii 10 (7.1 D/MP) .  However, the unemployment rate, while heading towards 20% for the country, is already at 37% in Hawaii.  We have a real lockdown, and while there was a weak protest by Trump supporters, it's pretty clear that the overwhelming majority supports this quarantine.  We do also have the Pacific Ocean protecting us.  Latest news:  as relatively safe as we are, Governor David Ige indicates that the stay at home order will probably be extended into May.


    Our White House Correspondent Maggie Haberman writes:  "The President, who ran as an insurgent in 2016, is most comfortable raging against the machine of government, even when he is the one running the country."


    "You’ll have so many swabs you won’t know what to do with them," Trump said during the daily White House coronavirus briefing. 

    How can our fearless leader miss the whole point of doing what is right?  SWABS?  The Defense Production Act should be invoked for the whole package of pre- and post-testing kits.  Now! 

    Getting tired of your lockdown?  Rather work in a hospital?  Or, what about:

    'It’s nonstop’: Inside the life of a New York City gravedigger during the coronavirus.
    Sometimes I feel sorry for those who practice teetotalism:

    "It's like New Year's every day" as lockdowns drive increase in booze and pot sales.

    Finally, this from Fortune on April 13:

    Trump’s oil deal: The inside story of how the Saudi-Russia price war ended

    Having been involved in the negotiations, to put it mildly, the number that OPEC+ is looking to cut is 20 Million Barrels a day, not the 10 Million that is generally being reported. If anything near this happens, and the World gets back to business from the Covid 19.....
    33.2K people are talking about this



    So what happened?  Hope this typical Trump braggadocio performance does not spread to the pandemic.  Remember when oil cost $2/barrel before the First Energy Crisis in 1983?  Well, today American oil dropped to $2/barrel.  $2 then is worth anywhere from $5 to $12 today, depending what you use as the measure of comparison.  Thus, the price of oil dropped to the equivalent of 17 cents to 40 cents/barrel.  The USA produces more oil than anyone else.  Of course this is temporary, and I see oil rising back up to $50/barrel, maybe even before the year is over (oil futures are $35/barrel in December and $55/barrel in February of 2031), but see how much damage the Leader of the Free World is causing?  And this is only petroleum, not COVID-19.  In many ways, oil is like a canary in a coal mine.  The price of petroleum in recent recessions has been the true indicator of a screwed up economy.  THIS NOT A JOKE!!!

    Oh, the title of this posting asks who Trump will next fire?  Meaning, who will he next blame for his own mistakes.  So far he has fired China, the World Health Organization, a range of Inspector Generals, Barack Obama and a whole host of news reporters.  Next?  Robert Redfield.  No, not the actor, Robert Redford, although he has regularly criticized Trump.  Robert Redfield (left) is the director of the CDC, the organization now being accused of botching the coronavirus testing program, Trump's next big crisis.  Oh, then Trump will again fire China for hoarding, price gouging and selling defective COVID-19 test kits.

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