WHAT YOU CAN DO TO HELP PREVENT THE PREDICTED COMING DOOM

For nearly a year now, a group of colleagues, mostly from Hawaii, but also throughout the nation and world, has been exchanging thoughts on how Peak Oil and Global Warming might affect the economy and our lifestyles. An update was presented in my recent Huffington Post article.

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There is a core (10-20%) not only concerned that the worst might happen, but is already taking precautions by planning for survival. No one is absolutely of the opinion that this recession is merely just another economic downturn. There is an uncertainty factor that is worrisome, and some of the bad case scenarios seem to be looming out there. I might well be the resident optimist in this melange of attitudes.

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Cyclone Hamish was a Category 5 storm, but is weakening and appears now not to be a serious threat to Queensland (Australia). The coastal islands, however, remain in danger.

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Chris Martenson has produced a widely viewed UTube series on this subject. His final chapter seems to well summarize our economy, energy and environment discussion. While predictive of bad case scenarios to be expected, he is not doomsdayish and suggests a prescriptive pathway. Chapter 17 specifically covers these three E's.

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There was also doom coming to Australia, but Cyclone Hamish, once a Category 5 storm, is weakening, and is now not considered to be a serious threat to Queensland (Australia). The coast islands, however, remain in danger.

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CHAPTER 1, BOOK 2 (Part 28): JAPAN, THE EUROPEAN UNION AND INDIA

The following continues the serialization of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

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Further analysis only includes Russia and China because the European Union, India and Japan don’t appear to be particularly dangerous future military foes. But for comparative purposes, here are some statistics, mostly from the CIA World Factbook:

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..........................Japan.......EU.............India

Age (years).........30,000...2 million........500,000
Current
Government......1300............52.................62

Size (km2).....377,835.........4,323,782......3,287,590

Population.....128 million..490 million...1,130 million

GDP..............$4 trillion......$15 trillion.....$3 trillion

GDP/Capita..$33,600........$30,000.........$2,700

Military Exp..$33 billion...$293 billion...$103.9 billion

Military Exp.

..%GDP...........1.2%..............2%................3.5%

In the spirit of the previous sections, though, one point worth mentioning is that, India, a Hindu nation, with a minority of 150 million Muslims, still has more Muslims than Pakistan or the entire Middle East. The unemployment rate for Indian Muslims is 52%, and, while making up 11% of the total population, they are 40% of the prison population. Yes, India is incredible and making a major economic move. However, there is a loudly ticking time bomb here that has to be defused.
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The Dow Jones Industrials went up 33 to 6627. All world markets fell today. Unemployment last month reached 8.1%, a 25-year high. Gold rose $1.74/barrel to $45.52. Gold increased $7/toz to $940.

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ANOTHER VIEW OF THAT PEARL HARBOR GOLF BALL

Well, here is yet another view of that Pearl Harbor golf ball, also known as the billion dollar Sea-Based X Band Radar.  This ten million pound marine defense equivalent of the Dodo bird, is just hoping that the soon to be launched North Korean missile heads towards Hawaii instead of outer space.  Otherwise, SBXBR is enjoying an almost perpetual R&D assignment in Hawaii, somewhat similar to my lifestyle in Hawaii.  Oh, this is a photo I took today from the Royal Kunia Golf Course.

First, the Dodo was discovered by Portuguese sailors (which is an insult in itself, as the natives of Mauritius had lived with this bird forever) in 1507.  A dodo, or, more correctly, doudo (also doido), in Portuguese, means simpleton.  On the other hand, the Dutch also take credit, for, nearly a century later, Vice-Admiral Wybrand van Warwijck also arrived and named this island Mauritius.  But they called this nearly 50 pound bird, walgvogel, the loathsome bird, maybe in reference to the palatability (although it was more tough than inedible).  The Dutch term dodoor means sluggard, so they certainly must be given some consideration for this dubious distinction of founder.

Actually, the dodo's call sounds like "doo-doo," so the onomatopoeic approximation could well be Mauritian.  Whether it was man, or the dogs/pigs/rats/monkeys Europeans brought to this island in the Indian Ocean, by 1681, this bird became extinct.  But, aha, there is sufficient DNA in British and Danish museums that, someday, could well be used to bring the dodo back from extinction.

What has this got to do with the Pearl Harbor Golf Ball?  You can draw your own conclusions.

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The Dow Jones Industrials tumbled 281 to 6594, and so did all world markets.  Oil dropped $1.40/barrel to $43.78 and gold stayed unchanged at $928/toz.  However, T. Boone Pickens predicts oil to hit $75/barrel by the end of the year.  I wouldn't take this too seriously, for I have tracked his predictions since his wind farm bravado, and he has been consistently wrong, and embarrassingly so.  On the other hand, his reason for this price jump is the one I gave in my Huffington Post article on this subject.

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CHAPTER 1, BOOK 2 (Part 27): USA

I continue serializing SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity. We have been working our way though Chapter 1, and the issue today? Is the USA the best country ever? Let's see.

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Checking GOOGLE and typing, “in what way is the United States the best country,” I saw only one obvious site that looked positive:

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10. Even lowly interns can meet the President.
9. Them other countries got nothing but foreigners!
8. The Pamela and Tommy Lee tape.
7. Three glorious words: “World Wrestling Federation.”
6. In the U.S. it is acceptable for a grown man to wear skimpy shorts and a lot of oil.
5. Mexico invented the burrito. But we made it microwaveable!
4. Jeopardy’s host: Canadian. Nine out of 10 winners on Jeopardy: American.
3. If you’re really good at sports, you get to kill people.
2. Europe may be architecture, but we’ve got Hooters!
1. No fruity accents.

Okay, what’s happening? Is GOOGLE breaking down? So I tried Ask.com. Nothing! Bernard Goldberg wrote, 100 People Who Are Screwing up America. Try typing that in and see what you get…nearly 2 million entries. “Why America is good” yielded more items about we not being so.

There clearly are areas where the U.S. is lacking:

o National medical coverage is one. South Africa is the only other developed country with a similar absence, but their silver bullet is a consumer driven health savings account. The American Medical Association is just too strong, as Michael Moore’s Sicko disclosed. As a symptom, we rank anywhere from #38 to #45 in various rankings of life expectancy. Andorra is (#1).

o We are the only country to drop the Atomic Bomb on civilians, and we did this twice.

o We are #36 in infant mortality, soundly beaten by Cuba, with Singapore at #1.

o With 5% of the world population, we emit 25% of all the greenhouse gases and maybe as much as 50% of all civilian-owned guns (270 million firearms for our 300 million people).

There is a definite problem: congressional lobbyists. The Military-Industrial Complex is formidable. The farm lobby is legendary. So is the fossil fuel industry and, of course, the National Rifle Association. Campaign reform occurs every year, but only for show. This is a definite challenge that has withstood the test of time.

We seem to be shrinking in height, at least Caucasians, on a relative basis. In 1860 the average height of white males in the U.S. was about 5’ 8 ½”. Today, it is 5’10 1/2'”. But, the 5’5” Dutch male of 1830 is now over 6’, and similar growth was shown by Danish men. Worse, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the U.S. is #1 on the world obesity scale. However, we will later see that there are countries in the Middle East, particularly, fatter than us.

We are stingy. There is a “Commitment to Development Index,” which ranks rich nations by how well they help poor ones. The U.S. is #13, with Japan at #21 and Netherlands #1. There is a Global Peace Index comparing 121 countries. Iraq is last, Iran is #97 and the USA sits at #96. Norway is #1. The Scandinavian countries all seem to fare well in these two categories.

Life is not equal in our country. Those running the company can get 500 times more than the average worker and Howard Stern in half a minute makes more than most of us in a week. If you are of a minority race, of the female gender or handicapped, you will generally not be uniformly treated. However, there are innumerable laws that provide an intent to be fair. But this is a free enterprise system, with merit and effort usually producing rewards.

But, certainly, freedom of the press, this we have. We can say almost anything in the USA. Well, maybe not. Reporters Without Borders announced its third annual worldwide index and placed Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Slovakia and Switzerland, tied as #1.The U.S., with Belgium, is in…22nd place. We were also beaten by Lithuania (#16) and Bosnia and Herzegovina (#21). Well, we were better than Turkmenistan, Myanmar, Cuba (#76) and North Korea (#77).

What about happiness? According to Ruut Veenhoven, who is responsible for the World DataBase of Happiness, citizens of Denmark rank #1, with Switzerland #2 and Austria #3. The U.S. sits at #15. In the survey of Global Projection of Subjective Well-Being by Adrian White, again, Denmark, Switzerland and Austria ranked one, two and three. The U.S. took 23rd place. Interestingly, Bhutan, which focuses on Gross National Happiness, ranked #8.

Okay, then, what about our national stability? Foreign Policy magazine announced its Failed State Index for 2007, and had Sudan at #1 and Iraq at #2. The U.S. came in at #160, but Norway took the top spot at #177.

In addition to all the energy we use and carbon dioxide we produce, there is also the matter of lifestyle and what we eat. I got this from the internet, without any reference attribution, so this might not be entirely accurate, but the order of magnitude seems reasonable for cost of food per week per unit (numbers indicate people/family):

o 6.....Chad...........$ 1.23
o 12...Bhutan........$ 5.00
o 4.....USA............$300
o 4.....Germany.....$500

So if the above table is anywhere close to being real, we do set aside a lot of money for food, but there are other countries that spend more.

There are other defects, of course, but let us look at the positives. The United Nations Human Development Index rates Norway as #1 and the U.S. as #8. Not so good, but better than 170 other countries. Plus, if you don’t like cold, you can move south, or to Hawaii, and still remain in this country.

The International Labor Organization of the United Nations reports that the U.S. is the #1 rated nation in productivity. Each employed person in 2006 produced $63,885 of value. Ireland, at #2, was nearly $8,000 behind, and Japan, at #16, only produced $44,877/person. How did we accomplish this? Part of the success is that we work longer during the year—1804 hours, versus 1401 for Norway and 1564 for the French—and have a system with no paid holidays and vacations, and no guaranteed health care. Use of information and communications technology also contributed. We are #2 in wealth created per hour at $35.63, but Norway, at #1 with $37.99, is temporarily in the lead only because of its oil exports. Adjusted for inflation, though, since 1973, average wages grew by a total of only one half of one percent. Labor unions, which in the 50’s represented more than a third of all workers, have seen this percentage drop to 7.4% today. Part of this is the result of shipping labor intensive work offshore and the use of migrant labor for menial tasks. All this makes for good business sense, but comes with the discomfort that Big Brother could well be industry, with too much of an influence over the legislative and administrative branches of government.

Yet, a lot more people want to come here than leave. From 2002 to 2006, 1,342,570 immigrants, annually, were legally admitted. The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that an additional unauthorized half a million sneak into the country each year. It is estimated that there are between 11 million and 21 million illegal immigrants now residing in the U.S. This has created some difficulties, to the point where Congress has regularly considered building the Great Chain-Linked Wall of Texas, New Mexico, Arizona and California to stem northern migration from the south. I can agree with President George Bush, who has his heart in the right place on this issue, for he is not as ruthless as some Congressional Republicans on this issue, as this party generally believes that our borders should be protected and rights must be earned.

Of course, there would be no all-powerful United States were it not for immigration, and as a grandson of one, I particularly appreciate this good fortune. Partly due to this influx, the USA is the only developed country that is growing at a healthy rate, if you subscribe to the theory that a little population growth is good for the economy. Finally, 123 of the 300 2006 Intel (formerly Westinghouse) Science Talent Search semifinalists had foreign sounding names, mostly from the Orient.

So, it’s no wonder that The Economist reported America boasts 17 of the world’s top 20 universities and 70% of all the Nobel laureates. The best three universities are Harvard, Stanford and Cambridge.

So how great is the USA? Greatest ever! Are we declining, after only a little more than two centuries? Probably not, but let’s look at a really bad case scenario. Over the next hundred years, we continue to embarrass ourselves in minor wars. China rises, but they will have their hands full just maintaining order within. Plus, what good is it, these days, with a global economy, to conquer nations militarily. So, the U.S. does, in fact, begin to decline. By mid-millennium we become like Rome and Italy, which still has fine wines, great food, and culture. Not a bad way to go, actually.

I could cite other studies and get scholarly. However, preparing the reader for Chapter 6, let me just say: preeminent in higher education (which will extend our position as the world’s most powerful), outstanding scientific minds, Gross National Product, first to the Moon, film-making, baseball, Grand Canyon, freedom and opportunity. Plus, we did save the world from imperialism, fascism and communism, are doing our best on terrorism…and are still only a little more than 200 years old. Warts and all, America is the best today, and, perhaps, ever. We should learn from past failures, and generally listen to what the world is saying, but, nevertheless, for now, consider much of global rhetoric to be, at least in part, sour grapes and jealousy.

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The Dow Jones Industrials rose as high as +252, but settled to +150 at 6727. World markets largely went up. Crude oil increased $3.53/barrel to $45.18 and gold also, $21/toz to $928.

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GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

The International Pacific Research Center is hosting yet another global climate change gathering, beginning this morning at the East West Center’s Jefferson Hall. While this is an invitational meeting (meaning there is a galaxy of these scientists in attendance from the world over), IPRC has opened it up to campus faculty and students (and anyone interested, for there is no one checking name tag badges—just walk in and find any seat you want—plus, there is a generous buffet of breakfast foods, coffee and tea, also free).

The format is one where a bunch of authors gives three minute talks at the beginning, then, after an hour or so, these presenters move to their poster located at the back of the room so small groups of interested participants can personally interact. The next session begins at 2PM this afternoon, and continues each morning (through Friday) at 9AM. A particularly useful presentation is the final one from noon to 1PM on Friday, when John Houghton, Susan Solomon and Thomas Stocker talk about IPCC Assessments of the Physical Climate System: A View from the Past to the Future.

Several observations:

1. The presenters are very international, and, as my hearing is beginning to go, I had difficulty truly understanding what was being said, although it is more probable that the arcane graphs and terms were the greater hurdle.

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2. It is ironic that these climate change scientists have probably the worst carbon footprint of any profession.

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3. Our sea level is continuing to rise at about 3 mm/year, or, if this pace is maintained, that would be about a foot increase a century from now.

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4. The permafrost is melting, sea ice over the North Pole is contracting at record rates and glaciers are shrinking, everything you already know, but still important in view of recent counterarguments that the globe has cooled since 2000.

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5. The available data suggest that there is a 90% probability that global climate warming is real,

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6. 90% of greenhouse gas induced heat escape into space. Of the 10% captured, 90% is in the ocean, and, interestingly enough, one third of that energy is in the deeper ocean. This means that the effect on marine methane hydrates at the sea bottom, now in dynamic equilibrium, could possibly be affected by serious climate warming. The Venus Syndrome?

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7. Susan Solomon gave me a pin of Planet Earth with the statement: Warming is Unequivocal. She had just presented a detailed analysis of why “unequivocal” was adopted by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the group with Al Gore receiving the Nobel Peace Prize), essentially, because the dictionary apparently prevailed. I wanted to tell her that “unequivocal” might be accurately descriptive of reality, but a poor choice because, aside from academics like her, the masses don’t know what that word means. But I had already reached the limit of her patience with my inquisition about those 90% probability issues above, so I did not have the heart to bring this up.

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Well, was this akin to preaching to the choir? Mostly, but you can make your own assessment if you have any interest in the subject by participating. Tomorrow, for example, there is a poster on “Is the Climate Warming or Cooling?” and on Wednesday is one on the significance of methane.
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The Dow Jones Industrials experienced a rollercoaster ride today, opening at plus 89, dropping to minus 80, jumping to plus 80, and ending minus 37 at 6726. World markets also all declined. Oil rose $1.42/barrel to $41.65 and gold went up $11/toz to $928.
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REVISITING TRILLIONS

The Obama budget, as proposed, is $3.6 trillion (or maybe $3.9 trillion) for fiscal 2010. Is this a lot of money? It is about 25% larger than the Bush 2009 budget, but included this time is money for war, the alternative minimum tax, natural disasters and the like, something Bush merely later asked of Congress, knowing he would get what he wanted. Bush 2009 will result in a deficit of $1.75 trillion (his best guess a year ago was a deficit of $407 billion), the Obama 2010 will result in a more tolerable $1.17 trillion. We had an annual surplus when Clinton was president.

How do these numbers compare with other large sums? Here are a dozen tidbits:

1. The national debt is nearing $11 trillion, meaning each of us owes $38,000 (yikes, what if someone comes to collect?), so the interest payment this year will exceed half a trillion dollars, or $58 million / hour. Remember, the total amount spent for the combination of the Manhattan Project, Marshall Plan and Apollo Project was in the neighborhood of $250 billion, in 2009 dollars.
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2. Laid end to end, a billion one dollar bills would circle the globe at the equator four times. A trillion would take us from Earth to our Sun.
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3. The floating golf ball of Pearl Harbor cost $1 billion and the next nuclear aircraft carrier (which is already obsolete for any real war) is estimated at $8 billion, but the annual Department of Energy layout for renewable energy R&D over the past decade has been less than one billion dollars.
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4. Farm subsidies amount to $25 billion/year, at a time, because of ethanol, when farmers are doing really well.
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5. We will probably spend less than $1 billion/day this year on gasoline, but that is only because prices are much lower than it was last year (when $4/gallon was exceeded, see current prices on the right) or will be in the near future.
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6. Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz estimates the Iraq War at $3 trillion.

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7. Our gross national product is about $13 trillion, while that of the world is $65.6 trillion (the U.S.'s is 20% of the world's).
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8. General Motors reported on a record annual loss of $38.9 billion, but that was a year ago for 2007. Toyota did indicate that it will lose $3.8 billion for this fiscal year (which ends on March 31), the first net loss since 1950. I haven’t seen the 2008 numbers for GM, and this delay can only be taken as ominous.
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9. American oil company profits for 2007 were up to a record $155 billion. Interesting that nothing much has been reported for 2008, although profits should be good, if not obscene.
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10. American airline losses were predicted to be $13 billion for 2008, but the drastic drop in jet fuel prices have at least halved that expectation. But, no official reports yet.
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11. The International Energy Agency last year reported that it will take $45 trillion to cut emissions by half by 2050. In comparison, the value of all publicly traded companies in the world neared $60 trillion in May of 2008, dropped to around $40 trillion in September, and is probably today down to $25 trillion.
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12. A quadrillion is a thousand trillions. But a quadrillion is 1,000,000,000,000,000--and only has 15 zeros. I calculated in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth that the odds of any of us being born were 1 chance in 1 with 34 zeros. A googol has 1 followed by 100 zeros.
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The Dow Jones Industrials crashed 300 points today to 6763, and is now down 23% for the year. There are fears of nationalizing both our banks and the auto industry. Controlled bankruptcies, though, are sounding more and more rational. Should you buy now or wait until 6000? Fisher Investments can be consulted. (Click on "Stock Market Outlook" in the free stuff being offered, meaning you need to jump through a few hoops) World markets were all down, mostly in the 3% to 5% range (DJI, -4%). Crude oil sunk $4.11/barrel to $40.23 and even gold slipped $14/toz to $928. The Sun is brightly shining over Honolulu, and, while a bit chilly today in the 70's, is at least looking great while the world declines.
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Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle has been lurking for a few days in the South Indian Ocean, and is now at 40 MPH heading away from Indonesia and Australia.
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CHAPTER 1, BOOK 2 (Part 26): ISRAEL

Judaism is older than The Bible. The Patriarchs, Abraham, his son Isaac and grandson Jacob, settled in the Land of Canaan (present day Israel) around 1800 BC, but famine, say some historians, forced the Israelites to migrate to Egypt. The First Exodus, led by Moses out of Egypt, say essentially these same historians, occurred in the 13th century BC, and around 1020 BC, King David made Jerusalem the national and spiritual center. In 586, most Jews were exiled to Babylonia (Iraq), but they returned a half century later. They were then ruled by the Greeks, Romans, Byzantines, Arabs and, finally, Ottomans, for 400 years, until 1917, when the British pledged support for establishment of a Jewish national home in Jerusalem. The League of Nations granted Britain the Mandate for Palestine. In 1947, the United Nations proposed the establishment of Arab and Jewish States, leading to proclamation of the State of Israel in 1948 after the War of Independence. Israel joined the UN in 1949, prevailing in the 1967 6-day war against Egypt and neutralizing aggressors Syria and Egypt in the Yom Kippur War of 1973.

Israel became an associate member of the European Common Market in 1975. Since then, with sporadic peace periods, Israel has been besieged by its neighbors. Israel has subsequently depended mostly on the U.S. for security and diplomatic support. The October 1973 war saw massive American airlifts of military equipment and from 1948 to 1985 the U.S. provided $31 billion, mostly grants. There have been innumerable agreements, accords and attempts at peace, including a latest last gasp attempt in 2008 by President George W. Bush. President Obama will have yet another challenge to meet.

A comparative look at the primary Middle East challengers would be useful:

.............................Israel ...........................Iraq ........................Iran

Age ....................9,000 years ................7000 years .............9000 years
Current Gov.............61 years ................just forming ................30 years

Size ...................20,770 km2 ...............437,000 km2 .......1,648,000 km2

Population ..........6.4 million ..................27.5 million .............69 million

GDP ..................$170 billion .................$88 billion .............$562 billion

GDP/Capita ........$26,800 .......................$2,900 .................$8,300

Military

Exp. ................. $12 billion ....................$7.6 billion ............$4.3 billion

Mil. Exp.

%GDP ................7.3% ............................8.6% ....................3.3%

Israel, about the size of New Jersey, is much smaller in population and territory than Iraq and Iran. But Egypt has twelve times more people and lands nearly 50 times larger, but got embarrassed in the 6-day War.

The countries of the Middle East believe that Israel is for all intents and purposes a puppet of the United States, and history has shown this to be largely correct. For example, Israel served as the secret channel for the U.S. to provide arms to Iran in the middle ‘80’s. Now, Israel is strategically positioned to take out possible nuclear facilities in Iran, if they ever came to be, something the U.S. would have difficulty perpetrating in view of our Middle East quagmire and need to shore up international respect. That Israeli air strike in October of 2007 on a suspected North Korea nuclear site in Syria could well just have been an appetizer. Thus, Israel will continue to serve as the catalyst for future conflicts for a long time to come, as today, that has become a necessary problem. The obvious danger is that an Israeli strike on Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz, where 40% of shipborne oil must pass, and oil prices beyond $100/barrel will result. This could happen very soon...or not at all.

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CAP & TRADE VERSUS THE CARBON TAX

I today received an e-mail message from James Hanson (NASA, global climate change hero who bedeviled the recent Bush Administration) pointing out two things:

1. A carbon tax is the "most honest effective" way, according to Hanson, to control carbon dioxide emissions. Then why is only the cap & trade concept being discussed in our White House and Congress? The reason is that American industry can profit from this option. Now that is not necessarily bad if cap & trade can work. Hanson thinks not.

2. Secondly, I’ve said this before, and will repeat it here: our political system is overwhelmingly controlled by lobbyists (take the military industrial complex, for example, but unions and religious and other issues groups can also be very influential). While small (and usually, legal) favors help an officeholder, just the getting re-elected part dominates the priorities of any office, and these organizations know how to play that game. Hanson points out that there are 2340 cap and trade lobbyists, many wearing alligator shoes, trying to influence our President, representatives and senators to insure that this policy is enacted. He mentions another group, of 2500 mostly young citizens, who will on March 2 peacefully protest, essentially, for the need to phase out coal. They bear no gifts and will need to pay their own way to the Capitol. Guess which group will have any effect on legislation?

Which then leads me to share with you some of my calculations on the carbon tax:

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A $50/ton carbon tax would raise coal-powered electricity from

..............................4.2 cents/kWh to 5.4 cents/kWh

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A $348/ton (4.74 cents/pound CO2) carbon tax would raise coal-fired electricity from

..............................4.2 cents/kWh to 12.55 cents/kWh

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A 5 cents/pound CO2 tax would raise coal-fired electricity from

..............................4.2 cents/kWh to 13 cents/kWh

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A 5.75 cents/pound CO2 tax would raise gasoline by $1/gallon

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Thus, a 5 cents/pound carbon dioxide investment surcharge (also known as a tax) would increase oil by $47.72/bbl.

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I have long advocated a 5 cents/pound CO2 investment surcharge. Jim Hanson recommends a 5.75 cents/pound CO2 tax. We are in amazing agreement.

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The Dow Jones Industrials sunk a further 119 to 7062. Well, I guess I need to buy those same stocks I bought way back in November when the market "bottomed" at 7500. Our Gross Domestic Product dropped 6.2% during the fourth quarter last year, the worst in nearly 27 years. That period happened to follow the second energy crisis. World markets were mixed, but mostly down. Crude oil slipped 27 cents to $44.34/barrel and gold rose $2/toz to $945. Note that people in the know earlier this week were predicting that gold would rise to $1200/toz in the near future.  Who can you believe these days?

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IS ALCOHOL GOOD OR BAD FOR YOUR HEALTH? WHAT ABOUT FINASTERIDE?

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About the yellow tree shown yesterday, the official name is Tabebuia donnell-smithii, Bignoniaceae, prima vera, GOLD TREE.

The following prepares you for Chapter 2 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity, which is on eternal life. I began Chapter 1 on October 11 and have several more parts to post, but two articles in the daily paper yesterday spurred me to comment on these matters of our health.

Over the past few years, the prevailing sentiment has been that red wine was good for your health. In fact, two glasses were recommended for men (less for women, mostly because of lower body mass), and that adds up to 10 ounces, or the volume of a can of soda. This no doubt worried some doctors and others, for moral conscience argues that drinking is bad. Well, Rob Stein of the Washington Post reports of a British study of 1.3 million middle-aged women, which found that just one glass of any alcohol per day, increased the risk of cancer.

The headline is sufficient to scare off a good number of marginal drinkers, which, I guess, is probably good, except from the beverage industry’s point of view. The reality, though, is that if you are female, and continue to have a drink a day, there is a 15 in 1000 chance (30 for two drinks) you would be one of those unlucky few. Would you want to give up a lifetime of “one drink a day” for a 1.5% higher chance that you might be stricken with cancer? Plus, medical science keeps re-studying something, many times arriving at a totally different conclusion. Butter-margarine and eggs are just two examples where what was bad is now probably okay…until the next study.

If you are male, you can’t feel totally comfortable just because only females were mentioned. It just happens that the study was focused on women. The odds are high that you, too, should take heed. However, this risk depends on body weight, so if you are really big or somewhat fat, that 1.5% drops some for one drink.

The second article had to do with prostate cancer, the second (skin cancer is #1) most common form in men. Here, women can feel comfortable about being immune. One in five (or six) men will get prostate cancer, and if you’re black, there is a 123% greater chance of death.

The treatment for prostate cancer is another controversial area, which has also undergone various adjustments. At one time, the standard PSA blood test was almost routine, until it began to get questioned for being somewhat unreliable, as a positive result does not necessarily mean you have cancer. In fact, no major medical group now recommends this test. The other dilemma is that if you have prostate cancer, do you wait out the danger (for growth is slow and usually non-life threatening) or go into surgery, which often causes sexual performance or bladder control problems. Well, this article now mentions a drug called finasteride (Proscar) which might prevent this disease. Here is where it gets almost totally puzzling: this drug, so it is said in the article, doesn’t apply to men who choose not be screened. Huh? The bottom line is to check with your doctor.

What has all this to do with eternal life? Not much, except that if the aging gene is checked (or reversed), you can still die from diseases, accidents and the like.

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The Dow Jones Industrials jumped 133, then slowly sank to minus 89 to finish the day at 7182. European markets went up and Asia went down. Oil went up a couple of bucks to $44.61/barrel. Gold dropped $10/toz to $945.

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THE SUSTAINABLE PARADISE OF THE PACIFIC

Clearly, I'm making a case for Hawaii as Paradise, so let me begin with what is a typical sunset (symbolically beautiful, but like the sun, declining), moving on to a wonder of nature, a resplendent rainbow (tomorrow, the potential to be reborn in splendor--go to the cover of my first book, SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth, for the multi-spectrum bridge to the future is so obviously evident with a concerted effort and a lot of help), and that incredible chartreuse blossom (actually, today, just outside my campus office). These are what make Hawaii different and better. How can something so beautiful be so challenged, relatively clueless and lacking in leadership? I digress, but the following is Part 2 of the discussion initiated yesterday on how Hawaii can best diversify:

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What is, then, the answer? In short, we need to focus on where we have a natural advantage. Hawaii cannot afford billions of dollars to start new industries nor wean us off petroleum. To be blatantly frank, we need money from beyond our shores: people, companies and organizations eager to then market our success elsewhere. In this critical transition, they can enjoy our hospitality. Not an entirely bad bargain if they end up profiting.

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This is a crucial period when oil prices are in a temporary canyon between the $147/barrel oil of July 2008 and the $200/barrel price of circa 2012. What is it that Hawaii can offer to the national government and major corporations to want to invest in our state?

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We are blessed with renewable energy, and the current White House and Congress will be supportive of our efforts toward energy self-reliance. We are in the middle of the largest ocean and neither Hawaii nor the Nation is doing anything about developing the riches of the sea. Tourism will continue to be the backbone of our economy for some time to come, so we need to either find a replacement for the fuel jetliners use, or help someone invent a new form of flight which uses hydrogen.

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As the first step, we need to get our Legislature, Governor, congressional delegation, private sector, academia, and, most important of all, the people, to agree that, unless we instantly work together to design and build a pioneering sustainable resource pathway for our future, we will be faced with sure catastrophe.

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Our best hope at saving ourselves is to become the national and world model for energy independence. Having about the highest energy prices in the nation make clean options closer to being competitive. Being relatively small (less than one half of one percent of the national population) means the investment can be more affordable. Our detachment from the national grid provides an urgency that is necessary to galvanize action.

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Here is what we must do:

1. Gain White House support to immediately host a World Summit to produce a plan of action as a symbol for the globe.

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2. Capture a greater share of the various stimulus packages to match industrial investments in wind power farms and solar energy (and conservation) retros to existing residences and apartments (with all new construction mandated to install solar water heaters and PV systems).

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3. Augment the 70% in 2030 government-utility incentives. For example, as has been done in Germany (where something higher than a 50 cent/kWh rebate is provided for residences contributing electricity into the grid--making this country now #1 in PV) have the PUC orchestrate a similar payback of twice the cost of what the customer is charged for homes and entrepreneurs (open it up to them, with some sunsetting) so that the utility becomes the storage option (batteries and hydrogen are just too expensive to consider today).

4. Install a smart grid connecting all our islands, even Kauai, which might be easier said than can be done, but is not impossible. This will cost $2 billion, at least. Who will be paying for this tab? These are the details that need to worked out. Remember how we got all those bucks to build national defense highways? Easy, then, to justify national defense grids. And we got the right people in the White House and Congress to do just that. How lucky can we get?

5. Do everything possible to explore for and install geothermal power plants on the Big Island, and, perhaps, Maui. Develop industrial parks around these facilities, as there are various co-products worthy of commercialization. Geothermal is a particularly key part of the mix because it is baseload power not dependent of the availability of the sun or winds.

6. Provide every encouragement for ocean thermal energy conversion, for this technology not only provides baseload electricity, but freshwater, next generation fisheries, marine biomass plantations for materials and fuel, and more. The Hawaii problem is beyond energy...we also need to begin to export some commodities. Hawaii should be the leader of the Blue Revolution.

7. But all the above is mostly about electricity. More energy is used in ground and air transportation than for electricity. Because it is beginning to happen, initially use a mix of plug-in electric cars and flex fuel hybrid vehicles. A command decision must be made to bypass ethanol and biodiesel for methanol. In time, the direct methanol fuel cell could replace the lithium battery.

8. For aviation, continue the effort to develop jet and other biofuels from algae, for this microorganism is at least 5 times more efficient in converting sunlight into biomass than any terrestrial crop. In parallel, explore prospects for the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper, a hydrogen dirigible, advanced by Rinaldo Brutoco, president of the World Business Academy. Clearly, too, the tourist industry must re-invent itself to cater to more affluent visitors and expand eco- and mari-attractions, like Hawaiian onsens. A floating casino or two powered by OTEC and featuring something like Sea World or Disney at Sea might work.

9. Seek special status to become the national symbol for energy self-sufficiency. That should mean more federal-industrial partnerships with Hawaii. Become the national leader for developing marine resources: marine biotechnology, seabed resources, next generation fisheries, marine biomass plantations, etc. Find a way to get the Department of Commerce (wasn't Senator Inouye the past Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee chairman?) to designate Hawaii as a Special Sustainable Resource Zone to commercialize renewable energy and ocean resources. This will surely bring some tax incentives (what about the equivalent of Act 221/215 funded by Commerce just for this Zone?) and facilitate patent rights.

In time, the billions we currently spend on imported fossil fuels can be eliminated and the new sustainable resource industry can rival and someday exceed revenues from tourism. The next two or three decades will be trying. By 2100, but hopefully sooner, Hawaii should become the Sustainable Paradise of the Pacific.

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The Dow Jones Industrials neared minus 200 in the first couple of hours, leaped to plus 55, then limped home minus 80 at 7271. By the way, the House today passed the spending bill (with less, but still, a lot, of pork) to keep the government operating, which was about half the size of the Obama stimulus package. Of course, Democrats largely voted in the affirmative, while most Republicans voted no and lambasted the beast. Crude oil jumped $2.57/barrel to $42.47. Gold dropped $13/toz to $954.