REVISITING TRILLIONS

The Obama budget, as proposed, is $3.6 trillion (or maybe $3.9 trillion) for fiscal 2010. Is this a lot of money? It is about 25% larger than the Bush 2009 budget, but included this time is money for war, the alternative minimum tax, natural disasters and the like, something Bush merely later asked of Congress, knowing he would get what he wanted. Bush 2009 will result in a deficit of $1.75 trillion (his best guess a year ago was a deficit of $407 billion), the Obama 2010 will result in a more tolerable $1.17 trillion. We had an annual surplus when Clinton was president.

How do these numbers compare with other large sums? Here are a dozen tidbits:

1. The national debt is nearing $11 trillion, meaning each of us owes $38,000 (yikes, what if someone comes to collect?), so the interest payment this year will exceed half a trillion dollars, or $58 million / hour. Remember, the total amount spent for the combination of the Manhattan Project, Marshall Plan and Apollo Project was in the neighborhood of $250 billion, in 2009 dollars.
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2. Laid end to end, a billion one dollar bills would circle the globe at the equator four times. A trillion would take us from Earth to our Sun.
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3. The floating golf ball of Pearl Harbor cost $1 billion and the next nuclear aircraft carrier (which is already obsolete for any real war) is estimated at $8 billion, but the annual Department of Energy layout for renewable energy R&D over the past decade has been less than one billion dollars.
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4. Farm subsidies amount to $25 billion/year, at a time, because of ethanol, when farmers are doing really well.
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5. We will probably spend less than $1 billion/day this year on gasoline, but that is only because prices are much lower than it was last year (when $4/gallon was exceeded, see current prices on the right) or will be in the near future.
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6. Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz estimates the Iraq War at $3 trillion.

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7. Our gross national product is about $13 trillion, while that of the world is $65.6 trillion (the U.S.'s is 20% of the world's).
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8. General Motors reported on a record annual loss of $38.9 billion, but that was a year ago for 2007. Toyota did indicate that it will lose $3.8 billion for this fiscal year (which ends on March 31), the first net loss since 1950. I haven’t seen the 2008 numbers for GM, and this delay can only be taken as ominous.
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9. American oil company profits for 2007 were up to a record $155 billion. Interesting that nothing much has been reported for 2008, although profits should be good, if not obscene.
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10. American airline losses were predicted to be $13 billion for 2008, but the drastic drop in jet fuel prices have at least halved that expectation. But, no official reports yet.
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11. The International Energy Agency last year reported that it will take $45 trillion to cut emissions by half by 2050. In comparison, the value of all publicly traded companies in the world neared $60 trillion in May of 2008, dropped to around $40 trillion in September, and is probably today down to $25 trillion.
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12. A quadrillion is a thousand trillions. But a quadrillion is 1,000,000,000,000,000--and only has 15 zeros. I calculated in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth that the odds of any of us being born were 1 chance in 1 with 34 zeros. A googol has 1 followed by 100 zeros.
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The Dow Jones Industrials crashed 300 points today to 6763, and is now down 23% for the year. There are fears of nationalizing both our banks and the auto industry. Controlled bankruptcies, though, are sounding more and more rational. Should you buy now or wait until 6000? Fisher Investments can be consulted. (Click on "Stock Market Outlook" in the free stuff being offered, meaning you need to jump through a few hoops) World markets were all down, mostly in the 3% to 5% range (DJI, -4%). Crude oil sunk $4.11/barrel to $40.23 and even gold slipped $14/toz to $928. The Sun is brightly shining over Honolulu, and, while a bit chilly today in the 70's, is at least looking great while the world declines.
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Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle has been lurking for a few days in the South Indian Ocean, and is now at 40 MPH heading away from Indonesia and Australia.
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