WHY IS HAWAII USING SO MUCH FOSSIL FUEL?

Why is Hawaii using so much fossil fuel?  Simple, it is the cheapest and most available form of energy. Fossil fuels are utilized for more than 90% of our electricity, and most of this is petroleum.  In the USA:

The oil percent is so small, it is listed at less than 1%.  How did Hawaii get stuck on petroleum?  That's a posting for another day

Thus, The Gas Company announced they would be shipping in liquified natural gas (LNG).  Is this smart?  Nope!  But the wind energy projects for Lanai and Molokai are being resisted, geothermal energy has long been fought on the Big Island and even a biomass to electricity plant near Hilo is being criticized.  Wait until OTEC International or Lockheed Martin announces their intent to build a 100 MW floating OTEC plantship, and see what comes out of the woodwork.  A few environmentalist will whine about LNG, but I would not be surprised if this option experiences less opposition than wind farms.

Isn't this crazy?  Yes, but the problem with energy is there is no public willpower to approach our future energy needs intelligently.  Whether it's not in my backyard, culture, resistance to any kind of new technology, noise, smell or just an uncaring attitude, we are in a crisis of inaction.  This is why we have never had a NATIONAL energy policy.  

In just another example, I feel like I am the only person in the islands who has been harping on the need for our State to put on a full court press to replace current jetliners or find a substitute and sustainable jetfuel.  That Huffington Post article I wrote on this subject was only three years ago, but I have been saying this since the 1970's, when I went to work for the U.S. Senate to draft the hydrogen bill that became the Matsunaga Hydrogen Act.  

(By the way, I remind readers every so often, but for the above and next visual, just click on them so you can read the words and numbers.)

Once the price of oil jumps to $150/barrel and higher, Hawaii will go into a prolonged economic depression because tourism is our only industry and the next leap, if due to Peak Oil, could well stay elevated a long time, and maybe forever.  Oh, the bad news is not only that a next generation hydrogen jetliner is beyond the fringe, but in two recent energy conferences I've attended this past month, the overwhelming attitude from industrial experts is that jetfuel from algae might never get cheap enough.  What about from terrestrial biomass?  Don't even bother with jetfuel.  Gasify and catalyze into methanol for the direct methanol fuel to power ground transport.  Oh, another problem.  The Farm Lobby effectively prevented the Department of Energy from doing any work on this technology so they could protect ethanol.

Here is another key point.  Electricity is generally only about one-third of a location's energy needs.  Over time, solar, wind, ocean, geothermal and other options will cover this need when prices jump even higher.  The undersea electric cable project will eventually cost more than $2 billion, but, let's face it, it makes sense to link the islands for a common price where the neighbor islands provide "their" natural energy to Oahu.  

The huge problem is that we are doing very little about ground and air transportation.  Plug-in electric vehicles?  In Hawaii?  You've got to be crazy to go down this path because EVs are having problems at electricity rates about one third that of Hawaii (12 cents/kWh versus 36 cents/kWh).  Plus, for a long time to come, much of the electricity will continue to be supplied from fossil fuels, especially if LNG gets established. A fuel cell car will take it five times further than a lithium battery system, but hydrogen is too expensive.  This is where the direct methanol fuel cell was supposed to have been readied because one gallon of methanol has 1.4 times more accessible hydrogen than a gallon of liquid hydrogen.  Imagine the difference in cost!  I should mention that fuel cells currently only can use hydrogen, but methanol, being the simplest biofuel, is just about the only liquid that actually can be directly processed, for Toshiba already markets one for portable applications.

However, it will take at least a decade to commercialize a DMFC for vehicles.

Oh, yes, one more important thing.  It is not cheap to establish the infrastructure for LNG.  Hawaiian Electric will need to install the interface equipment for their powerplants, our harbors must be converted to accept this fluid and an armada of trucks will add to safety problems and traffic.  Ours won't be so complex, but a recent LNG plant on the East Coast cost a billion dollars.  Hmm, maybe an offshore floating harbor.  We should contact the Maritime Alliance for their Portunas concept:

A one acre port will only cost $15 million, but, of course, you will need to add the LNG handling equipment.  Then get the liquified gas to land, then to the user.  Energy is difficult.

You also need to consider the matter of fracking, which will only grow in controversy.  What is this?  You don't want to know.

Okay, so let me return to natural gas.  Without getting too messy, let me just say that Bloomberg reports that natural gas for June delivery is about $2.50/million BTU or 1000 cubic feet (TCF).  However, keep in mind that liquified natural gas sells for around $11/TCF.  But, get this, synthetic natural gas costs $55/TCF in Honolulu today.  Here is the historical price of natural gas:

Actually, natural gas as of June 2012 has dropped further to below $2.50/TCF.  We have long been paying extraordinarily high prices in Hawaii for synthetic natural gas (SNG), so I can only wonder why we did not import liquified natural gas from the very beginning of time?  Might have something do with Pacific Resources Inc. nearly half a century ago having the refinery that produced the SNG for a gas company they owned.

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COI: One of Two Best Restaurants in San Francisco

The Seasteading Conference is over, except there is a cruise dinner left.  So, as I was walking to the pier, it occurred to me that Coi, the #58 rated restaurant in the Pellegrino Best 100 in the World and a Michelin 2-Star awardee, was only a couple of blocks away.  There are no 3-Star locations in the City and four with 2-Stars.  (I two nights ago had dinner at another 2-Star, Benu)  I've long wanted to try Coi, but it is closed Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, and does not serve lunch.  So at 5:40 PM on this Saturday I barely found the place, for, while on Broadway, the door is not that obviously the restaurant.  I poked my head in, indicated that I have been traveling the world to dine at Michelin 3-Stars and they graciously gave me the best table in the whole place.  Really!   Remember, this is Saturday night.

The decor was upscale and service impeccable.  I ordered their 12 course special with wines selected by my server, Brian Gavin.  The chef is Daniel Patterson.   Never went to culinary school and did not train under the best.  He just opened his first eatery in Sonoma at 25 and went from there.  There is terrific teamwork and the tip of 18% is just placed on your bill and shared, but they alert you to this.

Some puffed rice and avocado came with a Harushika Happo Junmai sake from Nara, Japan:

The first serving was a Mandarin Sour:

The second course was  an oyster dish:

Note the artistry.  The dishes reminded me of DOM in San Paulo, #4 on the Pellegrino list..  Then a simple beet salad:

Next a chilled English pea soup with a Hirsch Gruner Veltliner Niersteriner Bruckchen from Rheinnesser, Germany, a crisp white:

Course #5 was a grilled crawfish over artichoke:

#6 was an excellently prepared Monterey Bay abalone:

#7 was not fired egg, but egg, nevertheless, very special:

My third drink was a Peay Pinot from Sonoma, accompanied by a young duck in two servings:

They were both spectacular.  The servings are small, so I could eat everything.  Then came a series of desserts with La Montecchia Fior D'Arancio Mosato from Veneto, Italy:

Grapefruit 2006, Blueberry something or another and frozen lime marshmallow.  At the end a sheep milk cheese with a fabulous crust:

Then a honey almond wafer cookie at the end, which I had with some coffee.  I slowly walked back to the Le Meridien.   It was not quite dark, so I felt safe.  Cost?  Could have been worse.  I definitely recommend Coi for those who want the latest California fusion cuisine infused with Spring vegetables, and can afford it.

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SEASTEADING CONFERENCE: Day 2

Patri Friedman introduced Mike Gibson (left) of the Thiel Foundation, who talked about Let a Thousand Nations Bloom, a blog site,  Joe Quirk (right) is writing a book with Patri on Seasteading:  How Ocean Cities Will Change the World.  Shenzhen is a Chinese city that started with a dream, from 20,000 people in 1979 to perhaps a population approaching 15 million today.  People are searching for a place to test their dream. The ocean is this hope of a Cambrian explosion for progress.

Then followed the Blueseed Panel:  Dario Mutabdzija (President, left) and Max Marty (CE0), right).  Business without borders.  Success can only come from usefulness.  Risk-taking is essential.  It's okay to fail.  That above (well, the first one will be a used cruise ship, actually, for a brand new version, as shown, will probably cost $100 million) Blueseed ship, estimated launch as early as 2013, could well be the headquarters for 1000 startup incubator occupants, a Googleplex of the Sea, moored twelve miles off Half Moon Bay, California.  Benefits:  no visas or immigration restrictions, lower regulatory costs, international staff, less living stress, perpetual hackathon atmosmosphere.  Total cost as low as $1200/month each for four people, including office space, place to sleep and meals, but there will need to be shared equity.  More than 700 entrepreneurs in more than 200 startups from 52 countries have expressed interest, a quarter from the U.S.  The long term vision would be a wide array of Blueseed ships throught the world.  To quote Steve Jobs, "The people who are crazy enough to think they can change the world, are the ones who do."

Alex Wissner-Gross focused on Liquidity at Sea:  finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing in toto is a business sector actually larger than any current other American investment, such as mining, etc.  Touched on neutrino communications.

There were three talks on medical (including dental) tourism: Marc Joffe (Public Sector Credit Solutions), Peter Wei (medical student at Duke University) and Nishant Bagadia (Health Travel Technologies and PhD candidate at the University of California at Berkeley).  Medstead is a potential area of interest, utilizing, perhaps, doctors from Cuba, who will work for far less money.  There is a wide-range of medications cheaper than the U.S. pharmaceutical cost structure and beyond FDA limits available if the treatment occurs 12 miles off the coastline.  Gaming (gambling) will probably be provided.  Sealand off the UK coast might also be utilized:

(Wei/Bagadia/Joffe)  There are around 10 million physicians in the world, 90% outside the U.S.  648,000 Americans went offshore for medical treatment in 2009, and the numbers are escalating.  Even Blue Cross will pay for these cheaper options because of affordability.  If Medstead works, red tape would be cut, further dropping costs.  In the long term, if the ocean can successfully compete, then, perhaps, the price of conventional medical care could drop.   

For lunch we had a taste of Italy.

In the afternoon, there were three "mariculture" presentations, beginning with Ocean Algae for Seastead Integrated Solutions (OASIS Project), with Ryan Larsen, Baojuang Zhai, and Charlie Deist of the Seasteading Institute.  SunEco is the largest ocean algae firm in the world.  NASA Omega system shown to grow algae for biofuel in the open ocean.

Sea Farming by Ricardo Radulovich of the University of Costa Rica.  Funded by Gates Foundation.  99.8% of seaweed culture is in Asia.  Suggests growing fish at the lowest trophic level:  filter feeders and herbivores.  Crustaceans and sardines can of course be added to the system to handle the biowastes.  Some day there will be no cages, for there is promise for nutrient barriers instead of cages.  He also grew land vegetables at sea (but irrigated with freshwater) and found that there were no pest problems.  Tomatoes months after reaching maturity can still be consumed.  Marine biomass?  Dry and burn them.  Liquid and gaseous fuels are in the future.  He made a lot of sense.  I previously had a chance to chat with him and we share very similar opinions about the ultimate ocean ranch and the effort required to reach the stage of commercialization.  He claims to be both an expert and academic because he has made so many mistakes.  Sounds like me, too.  As he says, "who dares to take the plunge."  He ahs done real work.

The Velella Project from Neil Sims (introduced by Patri) of Kampachi Farms.  We need to move from hunting and gathering to cultivation. Today, the wild fish are basically gone, especially large fish.   Fish without footprints means to have the cages (Aquapod to the left)  unanchored.  They also serve as fish aggregating devices, so fisherman love their presence.  Also, on several occasions, WHALE SHARKS visited.  (My editorialization:  So, if there is any future interest in this specie as the bioproduct of choice, they pass through Hawaii, and Neil indicated that he has heard the flesh is tasty.)  These cages have no environmental consequences of significance, especially if they are allowed to move with the currents (and they should generally return to the same spot).  Kona Kampachi is looking at alternative feedstocks (from soybean) and expansion from Hawaii to locations closer to the marketplace, like Texas, Mexico and the Middle East.

John Chisholm (left, Seasteading  board) led a discussion on Presenting the Seasteading Concept to New Audiences.  A number of suggestions were provided, but nothing worth repeating.

Open Forum:  various questions and comments, but I thanked Seasteading for hosting this gathering and reinforcing my enthusiasm about the Blue Revolution.  Further, it is clear that this is a concept that people, organizations and countries will need to work together over time to maximize the chances for success.

Closing Remarks by Patri Friedman, Chris Williams and Randolph Hencken.

I never saw Peter Thiel during these sessions.  He was the original investor for Facebook and got Seasteading going.  However, his Foundation was visibly represented, all relatively young, eager and helpful individuals.  A couple of them showed high interest in the concept of the Blue Revolution and the Pacific International Ocean Station.

What's next?  The Seasteading Institute will be headquartered on the open sea soon and the Pacific International Ocean Station will sail in a few short years.  Patri ended with "Occupy Water....hmmmm"

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THE SEASTEADING CONFERENCE: Day One

The Seasteading Conference at the Le Meridien in San Francisco began with a free continental breakfast, where I joined Myron Nordquist (left), a collegue from my Senate days, someone I hadn't seen for decades.  The first talk came from James O'Neill of the Theil Foundation. He articulated on the promise and challenges.

Patri Friedman, co-founder of the Seasteading Institute, gave us a vision for the Big Picture. He said, Let a Thousand Hong Kongs Bloom, similar to my 10,000 ocean countries concept.  He indicated that the largest industry in the world, by far, was government.  We need a more efficient paradigm.  Communism failed.  Democracy as presently practiced, does not work.  What about Dynamic Democracy?  Our Oceans and the Evolution of Societies was a second theme.  We need a new place to try new rules...new government options, and the seas offer this opportunity.  In a way, the ocean could well be the new America, where an open frontier is again available for progress.  Evolution without revolution.  Two recent developments:

  -  Seasteading:  How Ocean Cities Will Change the World

     New book by Patri Friedman and Joe Quirk

  -  $8 million, 275 foot vessel, will be the first Seasteading Institute at sea.

William Riedy (left, with Randy Hencken and Patri in the background) of the Maritime Alliance (San Diego, new frontiers for blue tech and blue jobs) gave a presentation on the Economic Viability of Large Floating Structures.  Ninety nine percent of our ecosphere is in the ocean.  The Exclusive Economic Zone doubled the size of our nation.  150 countries border the ocean.  The Portunus Project (of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory), an offshore Port Concept for security and efficiency, was discussed.  U.S. imported nearly $15 billion of fish and shellfish in 2010, but we have no meaningful industry.   We today import 50% of our needs and this will increase to 67% by 2030 unless we do something about it.  Desalination is already a $10 billion industry, and will grow to $30 billion in 2030.

George Petrie (Seasteading Institute director of engineering) provided an overview of Where We've Been, Where We Are, and Where We Are Going.  Seasteading will adopt what might work, not develop new technology.  Club-Stead resort/casino and flotels could be early profit centers.  Economic feasibility studies have been completed.  Where should the Seasteading headquarters be placed?  (Maybe one of their branch outlets might be on the Pacific International Ocean Station someday.).  An initial study of shipstead aggregation locates it in the nearshore, but the grand vision, the metropolisstead, is in the open ocean.  Barges will not work well under difficult sea conditions, while semi-submersible should (no, the Yellow Submarine was not the solution, but it is pictured in a Seasteading page).  Seasteading has minimal staffing at this time, and depends on interns, volunteers, linkages and relationships.

Melissa Roth gave a comparison of the energy options, beginning with a diesel generator ($.46/kWh), and into OTEC ($.75 - $1.00--but Bob Nicholson said they are negotiating at $.19/kWh), solar photovoltaics ($1.10) and windpower (best, but untested).

Guillaume Ardoise, Seasteading Institute Engineering Board Advisor, focused on wind and wave energy.  Wave energy density is 5000 kWh/square meter, which compares with solar PV at 100-200.  Or 200 barrels of oil/square meter/year.  

I was the next speaker, and provided the first Powerpoint presentation of the Pacific International Ocean Station, largely put together by Guy Toyama, now posted on the Blue Revolution Hawaii website.

Bob Nicholson, President of OTEC International, waxed on the potential and reality of OTEC.  They hope to sign a power purchase agreement with Hawaiian Electric Company in July for a 100 MW OTEC facility at 19 cents/kWh.  As electricity costs run from 33 cents and higher in Hawaii, there is profit to be made.

LUNCH.

Ben Harmon talked on Seastead Security.  These floating structures need to install screening mechanisms and guard against piracy, etc.  How do you do all this without operating like a police state?  Certainly items worth considering and implementing.  A company such as Bowline Defense provides offshore platform security.

Then followed a two man panel on ocean law of Myron Nordquist (first photo above) and John Briscoe (University of Virginia and Cal-Berkeley, respectively).  The Law of the Sea might finally be ratified by the U.S. Senate this year.  He referred to the Wall Street Journal plead yesterday from the living Republican Secretaries of State (Henry Kissinger, Condoleeza Rice, Colin Powell, George Schultz, James Baker) to pass that damn legislation.  The Republicans, you see, are opposing passage. By the way, Democrats have long been in the affirmative.  The motivation was that the developing Group of 77 felt that the developed nations should share the ocean with the rest of the world.  Much of this initially had to do with seabed minerals.  The matter is not unlike religion.  It's all in what you believe. And the views all contradict.  Thus, lobbyists fighting ratification, they fund Republicans, go back to 1983 when President Ronald Reagan promulgated (meaning edicted), that the USA has an EEZ and it's ours.  We basically don't wish to share our rights and technology.  My guess?  The LOS treaty will not be ratified, this year, nor anytime soon.

Myron Nordquist shared more anecdotes, including that true tale about the Glomar Explorer and the Russian K-129 submarine with nuclear weapons, at 18,000 feet northwest of Oahu, partially salvaged by the ship in secret.  While the various stories were funny, the reality had everything to do with what Seasteading would be faced with in terms of maritime law.  For example, it was exactly 50 years ago when the Republic of Minerva attempted to form a nation on a reef in the Pacific.  The Tongan government got concerned and the rest is history, although recent highlights include Fiji fencing with Tonga about that same reef  and utopia.  That's a Minerva coin to the right above.

The day ended with lightning rounds:

  John Trepl (Marine Hydroelectric Company):  a simple wavepower system, really.
  Mike Doty (Delishus Fishes):  poly fish culture
  Michelle and Thrond Toftely (Res Judicata):  a better way to handle government services
  Gabriell Rothblass (Terasem):   intelligent design and pharming for Seasteading
  Tim Potter (Bamboo:  (Nature's Aluminum Poles):  he talked about the decline of bamboo
  Henry Mariano (Harvest Energy):  power generation by force, like on roads and through mooring
  Lissa Morgenthaler-Jones (Live Fuel):  fuels from algae (phosphorus is important and the sea is the solution (above)                                  
  Neil Sims (IMAGn Project):  geoengineering of the ocean through mariculture

Neil deserves a full photo because he closed the program for the day, although Jonathan Cain, President of the Thiel Foundation, provided the final word:

Jonathan is important because he provides funds for this type of thing.

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