EARTH 2020 AND SETI

You can click on my True Story of Easter from last year if you so wish, but on this day of resurrection, I am emboldened to suggest that Earth 2020 could well be a globe in economic shambles, so why not further predict that first contact will occur that year?  I am re-visiting the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence (SETI) mostly because I saw in the morning paper an article on the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) in Chile (above).  This photo brought back vivid memories:

More than forty years ago, NASA's Project Cyclops began as a workshop of university professors led by Barney Oliver of Hewlett Packard and John Billingham of NASA's Ames Research Center (left).  In 1972 they published their seminal work kicking off four decades of SETI.  You can read the entire publication by clicking on Project Cyclops.

Two years later, the same people involved with the above effort provided funds to another group of university faculty--Jim Dator (below) and I from the University of Hawaii--for a public education program entitled, EARTH 2020:  Visions for Our Children's Children.  I was responsible for the first part, and Hans Mark (director of Ames) came up with the theme, enhancing a quote from Jane Stanford (she and her husband founded Stanford University).  

Can you believe that in the summer of 1974 more than 2,000 people weekly jammed the NBC Concert Hall to listen to people like Garrett Harden ("Tragedy of the Commons") pontificate?  To interact with these world thinkers, Jim and I selected an outstanding group of university and high school teachers, most who, like Phil Bossert, went on to become university presidents, legislators, principles, etc.

Then two years later, in 1976, I was invited by the originators of Project Cyclops to join yet another professorial team to Ames for Project Orion:  A Design Study of a System for Detecting Extrasolar Planets.  

Which, thirty six years later, brings me back full circle to 13March2012 when I attended a lecture by Nader Haghighipour of the Institute for Astronomy at the University of Hawaii on this subject.  More specifically, I asked him to comment on a concept I had in 1976 advanced, with the aid of Charles Townes, to directly detect extrasolar planets.  I await his analysis.

In those days no one had yet confirmed planets around other stars.  Today, we now know there are many hundreds (now approaching 1000), and, speculated to be on the order of 160 billion, just in our galaxy. and there are, maybe, 500 billion other galaxies in our universe.  

Evoking the dream of SETI, I finish with a quote from Frank Drake:

At this very minute, with almost absolute certainty, radio waves sent forth by other intelligent civilizations are falling on the earth. A telescope can be built that, pointed in the right place, and tuned to the right frequency, could discover these waves. Someday, from somewhere out among the stars, will come the answers to many of the oldest, most important, and most exciting questions mankind has asked.

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NOTABLE GEEZERS OF SPORTS AND CUISINE

Today, Jamie Moyer starts for the Colorado Rockies and Fred Couples tees off, tied for the lead at the Masters.  At the age of 49, Moyer would be the oldest Major League Baseball winner of all time and, if Couples continues to prevail tomorrow, well...  He last won the Masters golf tournament twenty years ago at the age of 32.  Yes, he is 52 and 8 strokes ahead of Tiger Woods.

Jamie Moyer throws his fastball at 80 MPH.  A mediocre college pitcher throws at least 85 MPH.  As power is the cube of the velocity, a 100 MPH pitcher throws with just about twice the power of Moyer.  There are at least a dozen capable of reaching this speed.  Arnoldis Chapman of the Cincinnati Reds has been timed at 105.1 MPH, so that would be about a factor of 2.25.  So why is Moyer still effective?  Batters miss time the ball, expecting to get a slow ball, and getting one even slower.  His location is also uncanny.  A big plus is that he doesn't wear out his arm by slowing so deliberately.

Knuckle ball pitchers (which Moyer is not) also are known for longevity.  Literally, the inside knuckles are contacting the ball at release to impart "no" spin, resulting in a path that flutters, at 70-75 MPH.  Tim Wakefield of the Boston Red Sox would have been 45 if he returned this year.  

Satchel Paige, because of the color barrier, finally became a rookie in 1948 at the age of 42, but played for only five years.  In his prime, his fastball might have reached 100 MPH

Moyer last year actually threw a 9-inning shutout and had a good Spring.  He currently has 267 wins and wants to get to 300.  Three eleven win years would get him there.  He would then only be as old as Fred Couples.

To give Couples some encouragement, Sam Snead won the Greater Greensboro Open in 1965 within two months of turning 53, but that was his eighth win of that tournament, the current record.  Snead is also on record as being the oldest golfer to make a PGA cut...in 1979 at the age of 67.  Jack Nicklaus won the Masters in 1986 when he was 46.

Don't think this record will be broken in London this summer, but Oscar Swahn of Sweden won the gold medal for an event called the 100 meter team running deer shooting event in 1912 at the age of 64.   Then again, there are contradictions about the gold being given that year for this sport.  Jim Thorpe, All American, won two golds  that year, but had them taken away because he had played a kind of professional baseball earlier.  He, indeed, though, was all-everything, as he excelled in track and field, football, basketball, lacrosse, tennis, handball, bowling, golf, swimming, billiards, gynastics, rowing, hockey, boxing and figure skating.  He retired from professional sports at the age of 41 into a life of poverty.  Swahn did win the silver medal at the age of 72.

Of course, we can't leave this posting without a mention of Jiro, who at  86, still runs the best sushi restaurant in the world.  If you don't know anything about him, click on his name.

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OCEANSPHERE AND THE BLUE REVOLUTION

Growing up in Kakaako, I regularly fished at Kewalo Basin, only a few minutes walk from my home.  The excitement of a school of sayori appearing to chumming bread, and that sudden catch is an experience you just can't forget.

While aquaculture now supplies half the seafood we consume, the hunting and gathering tradition in the open ocean is finally at the threshold of transition, not unlike the period 11,000 years ago when wheat began to be farmed in the Fertile Crescent.  China produces two-thirds of farmed fish, mostly grown in freshwater, while Norway and Chile lead in the marine production of cultivated salmon.  Then, of course, there is Neil Sims and his Kona Kampachi to the left.

To the surprise of many, international trade in seafood dwarfs other commodities such as sugar, tobacco and rice, now approaching $100 billion annually.  But here are the problems and opportunities:

  -  all fisheries are in advanced stages of depletion

  -  most aquaculture facilities challenge the land and sea environment

  -  nutrition patterns are changing from red meat to marine products, and world population continues to grow

  -  there is a rising demand for oily (omega-3 fatty acids, for example) fish to reduce the risk of cardiovascular diseases

  -  a decade ago fish was cheaper than steak--today, high quality seafood is more expensive than meat

Just this week I paid $38/pound for a small piece of chu-toro (medium fat blue-fin tuna--this one to the left actually sold for $1238/pound in Tokyo), and even more per pound for salted salmon eggs.  While the very best wagyu beef in Tokyo can sell for $150/pound, when was the last time you even saw a $15/pound rib eye in a market?  In Hawaii, a lobster sells for $16/pound, but the real cost is $40/pound because the flesh is around 40% the total weight.

So what can be done about seafood production?  Well, for one, you can extend salmon cage culture by cultivating other species, but in a manner that is compatible with the marine environment.

A colleague, Bill Spencer, CEO of Hawaii Ocean Technology, Inc (HOT), finally did get State of Hawaii approval to raise big-eye and yellow-fin tuna in his patented Oceansphere.  According to Bill, Hawaii imports 85 of the seafood we consume.  While this 50th State has been a pioneer in tapping the coastal riches of our ocean, HOT spent a lot of time and money wading through the laws, while contending with the opposition, largely environmentalists and a Hawaiian group or two.  The Maui Chapter of the Sierra Club, for example, is not happy.

Hawaii imports most of the energy we use, food we eat, and almost everything else.  If our long professed goal is to reach for independence and sustainability, why is it that we are opposed to wind power, mariculture and geothermal energy?  Yes, industry has in the past polluted our land, waters and atmosphere, but that does not mean every development is bad.  HOT is exactly the kind of enterprise we need to make for a progressive state.  

I just this week was asked to support a group protesting a biomass power project on the Big Island.  What it came down to was that a mother was concerned that her children would breath the fumes and particulates from the nearby powerplant.  I can sympathize with her, but what is the solution for NIMBY (not in my backyard)???  While the gripes, protestations and red tape hurdles will continue, Bill has come a long way and I hope the perseverance and finances to eventually succeed.  Hawaii needs more companies like HOT to lead the way.  Government and citizen groups should do a lot more to encourage, not discourage, the efforts of well-intentioned firms.

Anyhoo, while cage-culture is a necessary bridge to food for our future, can we hope for better in the long-term future, for it is reported that it takes five pounds of wild fish to produce one pound of salmon.  Experiments are ongoing to reduce this ratio by substituting other protein and carbohydrates, but why not have your stock feed itself?  The ultimate ocean ranch is a concept I've been dreaming about for several decades.  To quote from my Huffington Post article:

1. Place these ranches in the open ocean away from coastal environments.
2. Link to the cold water effluent of ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plantships. These waters are very high in nutrients in the exact ratio and composition needed for sea life.
3. Conduct the basic science and engineering for the process:
     a. Utilize nutrient or temperature barriers (i.e., no cages).
     b. Close the growth cycle so that no feeding is necessary (see #2).
     c. Acoustically harvest the seafood (not too adventuresome, but sound can attract fish).
     d. Develop the robotics to protect the bioproduct.
     e. And so on.

For now, I look forward to enjoying some King Ahi sashimi in the not too distant future.  By 2020, perhaps grazing Blue Revolution plantships like the Pacific International Ocean Station can provide a wide range of open ocean seafood products from next generation fisheries featuring the ultimate ocean ranch.

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I'M TAKING A DAY OFF

Great day for sports, as Major League Baseball finally got off to a real start (I have 7 fantasy teams this year--I was on sabbatical for three years), the Masters teed off, the University of Hawaii baseball team is hosting Fresno State and I just golfed 27 holes at the Ala Wai Golf Course, bantering with Kenji Sumida for five hours (we shared a cart and our team won) and walking 9 holes with Cathy/Kwok Ho and Paul Yuen (University of Hawaii colleagues).  After a long bath with two Yoichi (which is #1 today) Japanese scotch whiskeys on large chunks of ice (something that could get you deported from Scotland), I'm trying to decide if I will barbsecue a rib eye with foie gras or unfreeze three pieces of pizza.  For those who have complained that my postings are too long, I'm listening to you.  Return tomorrow for something of possible relevance to Planet Earth and Hawaii.

WHY IS THERE SO MUCH INTEREST IN THE WHALE SHARK?

A little more than a month a go I posted an article on:

     CAN THE WHALE SHARK REPLACE CATTLE?

More viewers clicked on this suggestion than anything else all year, by far.  Number two was:

     IS THERE HOPE FOR THORIUM?

Well, this is an energy and environment blog, so I can understand the interest in thorium.  But the whale shark?  Perhaps the audaciousness of the concept drew readers.  Or maybe, like sin and sex, I guess people are also drawn to sharks?  I've toyed over time about changing the title of this site, "Planet Earth and Humanity," so maybe I should try "Sin, Sex and Sharks."  The visitor count should soar.

In any case, sharks are again biting people.  A surfer in Honolulu yesterday was chomped on by a tiger shark (above), a SCUBA diver was killed by a great white (below) only a few days ago in Australia.  Are sharks increasing their  consumption of humans?  Actually, yes, for these encounters are the highest in 19 years, with 12 kills just last year.  But none in the USA.

Click on Shark Attacks to learn the truth about Hawaii.  In 2007, 7.4 million visitors came to Hawaii and "only" 8 swimmers were attacked.  That was a recent high.  From 1882 to 2009 only 114 were recorded (meaning less than one/year), 11 fatally.  Mind you, an average of 60 people die annually from drowning in Hawaii.

However, how fair is this?  The FAO indicates that 73 million sharks are killed by fishermen every year, mostly for the fin, which can cost $100/bowl.  However, laws are being passed and there now seems to be a decline from a high of 90 million in 2003.

If you've come this far, you might as well click on "20 things that kill more people than sharks:"

  -  roller coasters

  -  vending machines

  -  football

  -  ants

  -  dogs

  -  jellyfish

  -  hot dogs

  -  deer

The list goes on.

I guess one way of looking at this is that we have a 10 million to one advantage over sharks in kills, which are not as dangerous as ants or jellyfish.  Also, too, we can avoid drowning and shark attacks by staying out of the sea.  For the record, whale sharks have never swallowed a human.  Whales, maybe.  I should note that the whale shark is a fish, while the whale is a mammal, like us.

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SIMPLE SOLUTION ESSAYS: Global Warming and the Afterlife

Today I continue to serialize SIMPLE SOLUTION Essays.  This article was published in the Huffington Post on 11August10.  Updates will be inserted as appropriate.  

I decided to link a topic from Book 1, global warming, with one from Book 2, religion.  Part of this composition is to further understand my mystification of why Americans are so prone to believe without proof.  I find it difficult to comprehend why 90% of our citizens have faith in a heaven with no confirmed evidence, while less than 50% don’t think much of global warming, when most of the responsible scientists say that this is real.  I repeated this message in a subsequent HuffPo.

Chapter 4 in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth reports on global warming, and points out the greater peril of THE VENUS SYNDROME, with methane, not carbon dioxide, as the threat. Chapter 5 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity is a different take on religion, and wonders why 90% of Americans believe in the afterlife, while this figure is below 25% in most of Europe, Israel and Japan. The following synthesizes those two chapters, and anyone desiring details can go to those books, for 731 full references are provided.

Decision-makers are influenced by their constituency. If the public does not care that much about a problem, these leaders tend to ignore the significance of the issue. Conversely, if an overwhelming percentage of, say, voters, believe in something, then potential candidates take heed.

For example, most polls taken over the past few decades seem to indicate that around 90% of Americans believe in some afterlife and a God. It would thus behoove political candidates to be religious. The odds are, of course, that most of them actually believe themselves. At the national level, only Congressman Pete Stark is on record as not believing in God. However, he does not plan to run for office again.  There are, reportedly, 27 others.  But they are not ready to come out.  The fact of the matter is that something on the order of 90% or more of Americans would consider a black person or woman, but less than half would vote for an atheist.

As an interesting sidebar, only 5% of biological scientists in the National Academy of Sciences believe in the afterlife. Is there something this elite group knows that we don't?  (In comparison, 82% of Americans believe in something after death.)

Well, no. There are certain things that might not ever be known, while there are some other things that should be scientifically provable. Let's take global warming as an example. Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists believe that the global average temperatures have increased over the past 50 years, and 84% say that the cause is human-induced. Only 13% believe that there is relatively little danger to Planet Earth and us. Only 1% of them believe that the TV/cable media are very reliable and 3% rate local newspapers as very reliable. You can make your own conclusions on what these numbers mean.

We all know that polls can be skewed by how you ask the question and who you solicit. So take the following any way you wish, but most recent surveys show that the American public is split about the environment being given priority over the economy and vice versa. In 2000, 67% favored the environment. Today, this percentage has slipped to 36%:

Last year 56% thought that cars and industry at large are mostly to blame, but the fault dropped to 54% this year. Slightly more feel that government should fine or tax company emissions, but only 52% to 45%. We tend to be concerned about water and air pollution, but only 37% worry about global warming.

Yet, Al Gore and others like him might be having an effect, as in 1997 only 25% said that global warming would pose a threat to their way of life (with 69% saying no), and this year the apprehension shifted to 40% yes and 58% no. All in all, though, climate change is not a huge concern to our populace.

I might add that a World Public Opinion poll reported this year that 43% of Americans felt that carbon dioxide was a pressing problem, while the returns from the world showed: Australia at 69%, Argentina 63%, Israel 54%, China 42%, Russia 32% and India 19%. Interestingly enough, 71% of those in the United Kingdom believed that this was all a natural occurrence and not a result of this gas. The recent UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report by more than 2,500 scientists found a 90% chance that people were the main cause and drastic action was needed to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

How then is global warming related to the afterlife? No, nothing to do with afterlife being hell, although that might make for an entertaining movie. Simply, for both, logic seems almost irrelevant. We tend to believe what we want, heavily influenced by our upbringing. Science is not welcomed in religion, for can you imagine the fate of a political candidate who might foolishly state: the greatest immorality of religion is that there is no proof of an afterlife. It's particularly worrisome that science is failing to have much effect on public opinion. There is no simple solution, but I'm trying, with Chapter 3 on education and Chapter 5 on religion in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.

Comments (11):  I again quote from my summarizing response to one of the inputs—

I would agree with much, if not all, of what you said. The fact that 90% of Americans believe in a God and the Afterlife, probably helps to keep most people honest and caring, with the availability of an almost necessary psychological crutch for many. There is much value there. However, my purpose of linking Global Warming and the Afterlife was to stimulate conversation on how religion might, then, best take an active role in ameliorating climate change. I took on this self-proclaimed mission to Save Planet Earth and Humanity from Peak Oil and Global Warming by first writing those two SIMPLE SOLUTIONS books pictured on the right, then, reaching out into the ether through The Huffington Post. Common sense was not working, so I posted a two-part VENUS SYNDROME (Chapter 5 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth) nightmare, hoping that fear would work. That did not make a ripple. So I tried an out of box political solution by suggesting in a five part Huffington Post series to make renewable energy FREE. That never gained any traction. Thus, I thought I'd play the spiritual card. All you who are faithful, pass thls post on to your congregation! If this fails, still to come is the joker (sort of the antipode to religion) in the deck: THREE STRIKES AND YOU'RE DEAD. Details on this concept can be found in Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity.

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HOW NOT TO MAKE SUSHI--Part 2

I did not expect to have a part 2.  (To go directly to part 1, scroll to the bottom of this article.)   However, one of the benefits of retirement is that after a great weekend, the vacation continues on Monday.  After much mulling, I chose to see the movie "Salmon Fishing in Yemen."  This was an excellent film with a lot more in terms of relationship, stress and enjoyment than "Hunger Games."  Mind you, world-wide, HG has made more than $360 million, while SFIY only has box office revenues of $3.6 million.  However, like in "Jiro," I was again spurred to have a follow-up meal related to the title.

The theater was in the Kahala Mall, so I strolled over to the Japanese section of Whole Foods and picked up a salmon (of course) onigiri (rice ball), sunomono (vinegared cucumber) and two soups, miso and beef bourguignon.  Combined with the really expensive sashimi leftover and ridiculously priced sake (of course, it has a lower concentration of arsenic), I had a spectacular follow-up dinner:

Those are the Hawaii State flowers in the background.

As predicted, Kentucky is the 2012 NCAA basketball champion.

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HOW NOT TO MAKE SUSHI

Anyone who has visited this site knows that I dabble in world cuisine and sometimes even experiment with cooking.  For example, the Huffington Post published my effort at roasting a turkey.

I yesterday saw the movie, Jiro Dreams of Sushi, which compelled me to drive to Marukai to purchase the ingredients to make sushi.  Mind you, as in my turkey experience, I have never attempted to make sushi in my life.  Well, unlike that Thanksgiving success, things did not turn out perfectly this time.

First, this was the longest 82 minute film I've enjoyed.  While sometimes plodding, with a great soundtrack, it is a documentary of the best sushi restaurant--Ginza's Sukiyabashi Jiro--in the world, operated by 86 year old Jiro Ono, who started at the age of nine, and today with only ten seats and no restroom, has earned 3 Michelin stars.  He has one price, $368, for which you get 20 choreographed pieces of sushi:

- Hirame　(ひらめ)

- Sumi-ika　(すみいか)

- Shima-aji　(しまあじ)

- Akami　(あかみ)

- Chu-toro　(ちゅうとろ)

- Oo-toro　(おおとろ)

- Kohada　(こはだ)

- Hamaguri　(はまぐり)

- Aji　(あじ)

- Kuruma-ebi　(くるまえび)

- Sayori　(さより)

- Tako　(たこ)

- Saba　(さば)

- Akagai　(あかがい)

- Uni　(うに)

- Kobashira　(こばしら)

- kura　(いくら)

- Anago　(あなご)

- Tamago　(たまご)

Drinks are extra.  You pretty much need to make reservations a year in advance, but as I'm staying at the Hotel Seiyo Ginza in a couple of weeks, hmm...maybe I'll check it out.  Or, perhaps, the shop run by his younger son in Roppongi, which is the mirror image of the original (father is left handed, son is right handed), which, with "only" two stars, should be similar.

Jiro represents purity and perfection, driven by will and psychotic repetition.  My problem is that I had to compromise on quality and did not know what I was doing.  It takes ten years for an apprentice to be entrusted to make sushi at Jiro's.

Perhaps the rice is the most important part of the recipe.  I used only the #2 rice from Japan, an Akita Iwate Hitomebore.  I must have run out of the #1 Niigata from Japan.  I bought these two bags for something around $7/pound from Mitsukoshi, across the street from the Tokyo Westin.  A pound of California rice can be purchased for less than $1 in Hawaii.  I decided not to use a rice cooker, but instead, adventurously steamed the pot over an open flame on my roof.  Well, it boiled too quickly and, it turned out, I undercooked it.  But, I thought, okay, for risotto in Italy is always al dente, and spaghetti in Florence is almost crispy in the middle.  But, then, I remembered when working the sugar industry of incidents where Filipino laborers died from eating undercooked rice.  Something to do with expansion of the grains in their stomach.  So, I was wary.

At Marukai I splurged a bit, picking the fattiest chu-toro (bottom right):

Note the $38/pound.  Then, I economized by choosing the cheapest junmai daiginjo sake on sale (or so I thought):

The Kamikokoro Ohshima Shuichi sake from Okayama, 16% ethanol, at $40, was the most expensive sake I've ever purchased, for the bottle was only half a liter.  I now see why it was cheaper, because the bottle size is deceptively standard.  It was also too sweet.  So much for sake and rice in this meal.

I went to Google to find out how much rice vinegar and sugar to add to the rice, and used much less because, frankly, I don't like vinegared rice.  I went overboard, though, on two other items:

  -  I bought a tray of real wasabi for $7.  You can get two large tubes for that price, which could last a whole year.  Then, I couldn't find the grater, so only cut the roots into tiny pieces.  There was no hotness at all to this wasabi.  I've asked people in Japan if they preferred one or the other, and unanimously, they all use the manufactured version.  While this is not real wasabi (they are almost always some chemical composite not even involving the plant), it is really hot, cheap and convenient.  It took me at least ten minutes to scrape off the skin and cut the roots.  Well, I'm now up to strike three and the eating has not even started.

-  Then, I took a chance on ikura (salted salmon eggs).  For the past three months I have been closely checking my blood pressure and have been assiduous about minimizing my sodium intake.  Ikura is mostly salt.

So here is my sushi extravagance with sake and Kirin beer:

I spent so much for the blue-fin tuna that I had a side order of sashimi, and more sodium.  Those green specks with the red salmon egg are the pieces of wasabi root.  The rice grains did not hold together well, and it was a struggle to get anything into my mouth.  Note that there are no utensils.  I used my fingers, which is the way they eat sushi in Japan.  Strike four.

Have you noticed there are no females making and serving sushi at a bar?  That is a Japanese tradition, although an all-female sushi restaurant last year opened in Akihabara, the electronics center of the country.

The good news is that after that sodium-infused meal, my blood pressure did not rise that night, and was measured to be 115/68 this morning.  I wonder if all that alcohol neutralized the salt?  Maybe I can have more salt in my diet if I maintain a high imibibition rate.  And I did enjoy a beautiful sunset with my meal:

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REPUBLICANS REVEAL THAT ENTIRE PRESIDENTIAL RACE WAS A PRANK

Well, this is 1April2012.  April Fool!!!  Actually, there could well be some truth to this, yet.

SCALIA (that's the Justice above, whoops, I mean below right) UNABLE TO NAME ALL 9 SUPREME COURT JUSTICES!  Well, this one is from the Daily Onion, so what can you expect?  There seems to be a number of Supreme Court  hoaxes this year.  And sometimes you don't really know if it is, indeed, a joke.

Google has a new car without a driver to save lives in NASCAR races.  Nope, that's co-founder Sergey Brin.  Two years ago, GOOGLE became TOPEKA.  Here are ten Mashable bests, starting with another GOOGLE prank.

Andy Borowitz is becoming famous on this day:  AN ARGUMENT AGAINST HEALTHCARE.  Read his comedic blog site.  Watch him on Michelle Bachmann, which is not an April Fool's joke.  He has been known to say:

There are some people on the Supreme Court I wouldn't trust to judge a cat show.

Justice Alito compared the healthcare plan to burial insurance, which coincidentally is the Republican healthcare plan.

Some of you might want to re-visit my April Hoax postings from 2009, 2010 and 2011.  You want a lot more?  Go to Daily Kos.