KING KAMEHAMEHA DAY

Hawaii is the only location that celebrates this holiday in honor on the first ruler of the Hawaiian Kingdom, King Kamehameha I, who was born on February 1758, November 1737, or May 1, 1738.  Yes, historians are not sure.  The 1758 year is popular because Hawaiian legend prophesied the appearance of a comet, and that was the year Halley’s Comet appeared.  Speculating on activities over time, the earlier dates look more likely.

 

He was born of Kohala aliis, and at the age of 14 lifted the Naha Stone (now positioned in front of the Hilo Public Library), somewhat reminiscent of King Arthur and his Excalibur, as there was another legend that this warrior would unite the islands. This he did, but not quite by battle.  Starting from the Big Island, he somewhat easily conquered all the islands by 1795 using muskets and cannons, save for Kauai and Niihau.  Invasions continued to fail until sandalwood merchants stepped in to preserve their trade by convincing Kaumualii, alii nui of Kauai, to negotiate a peace.  Thus Kamehameha the Great in 1810 emerged as the first King of Hawaii.

 

His reign was indeed successful and many books have been written of his rule and the system he established.  His late years were spent where the King Kamehameha Hotel is now located, where the Iron Man World Triathalon starts and finishes in Kailua-Kona.  He died on May 18, 1819, and to this day his resting place remains a mystery. King Kamehameha Day was first proclaimed by King Kamehameha V, his grandson, in 1871. This monarchy continued until 1898 when Hawaii was annexed by the United States.

 

Interesting that this holiday is a holiday, for nothing much is happening today.  However, festivities began on Kauai on May 30 in Lihue with a floral parade and on the Big Island yesterday for Ka ‘Ahu Lei ‘O Kamehameha  at the Wailoa State Park statue site in Hilo

 On the island of Oahu:

 

  -  Friday, June 12, 3:30 P.M. -Music by the Royal Hawaiian Band at Ali`iolani Hale, as a prelude to the statue decoration ceremonies (see photo above)

  -  Saturday, June 13, 9:30 A.M. - 93rd Annual King Kamehameha Celebration Floral Parade, beginning at King and Richards Streets and ending at the Queen Kapiolani Park, where festivities begin at 9 AM.

To follow will be the 36^th Annual King Kamehameha Hula Competition at the Neal S. Blaisdell Center Arena from 6PM on June 26, continuing on Saturday at 1PM.

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The Dow Jones jumped +144, then declined to +32, to settle at 8771.  Gold went up $3/toz to $956 and crude oil remained above $72/barrel.

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There remains the potential for storm development south and west of Baha.

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Oh, by the way, that Swine Flu Pandemic was declared today by the World Health Organization.  See my views on this subject below.

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THE SWINE FLU (Part 4)

This is my fourth posting on the swine flu.  My first occurred on April 24.  I'm doing this again because the Honolulu Advertiser this morning featured an article with a large headline at the top of page 3, WHO may declare swine flu pandemic.

This article by Frank Jordans of the AP reported that the World Health Organization is poised to announce the first flu pandemic in 41 years.  Pardon me, but didn't Director-General Margaret Chan (photo at top) on April 29 already raise the pandemic level from level 4 to 5?  The answer is yes.  What Jordans meant, I'm sure, was that WHO will soon, because of a spike in Australian swine flu cases, increase the level to the highest possible:  6.  Australia is now up to 1200 cases...but not one person has died!  Are they tough or what.

The final paragraph of Jordans' piece ends with:

"The writing has been on the wall for weeks," said Chris Smith, a flu virologist at Cambridge University, adding he didn't know why WHO had waited so long to declare a pandemic. "WHO probably doesn't want people to panic, but the virus is now unstoppable."

Who is Chris Smith, anyway...and UNSTOPPABLE?  For the record, let's see where we are on the swine flu.  H1N1 Swine Flu cases are now up to 26,563 (590/day since first observed in Mexico), with 140 deaths (3 deaths/day).  The death rate per day has not changed much from a month ago.  I posted an article in the Huffington Post last week entitled, "A Pandemic Worse than the Swine Flu."  I wasn't exactly poking fun at the swine flu, nor the attitude of WHO, but please read that contribution and let me know your views.

Anyway, here is a quote from my above HuffPo posting:

1. The regular flu kills one in a thousand, while the swine flu seems closer to one in a hundred. That previous avian flu of a decade ago has a 60% mortality rate, but it is not all that contagious. The fear is that the swine flu will morph into a more dangerous form. The potential of this happening is very low, and, in any case, it is appearing that all 50 or so variations might turn out to be treatable with one vaccine. So, certainly, continue the vigilance and spend my tax dollars to develop a common vaccine, but don't close down countries and schools, and, by the way, tourists can safely return to Mexico and Hawaii.

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2. The numbers are embarrassingly obvious. Since the so-called epidemic was announced only a little more than a month ago, we have had about 500 cases and 3 deaths a day. I wouldn't want to be one of those statistics, but consider that a million people daily contract some form of flu and at least a thousand die, every day, usually from complications (heart, pneumonia, etc.). This terrifying swine flu is thus hardly detectable noise. I might further add that traffic fatalities number 3000/day, but we drive on.

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Can anyone who is reading this blog please comment and tell me what the really big deal is about this current swine flu? 

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The Dow Jones Industrials dropped 24 to 8739, but world markets were more up than down.  Gold settled $3/toz to $953 and oil continued to march up, now at $71.87/barrel

By the way, I sold GMGMQ today from $1.66, providing a 20% profit over the past two weeks.

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There seems to be a weather disturbance forming south and west of the Baha tip.  Nothing serious yet.

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COUNTRY #10: AUSTRIA

The Austrian flag has been around for 800 years, with the white standing for peace and honesty, and red for hardiness, bravery, strength and valour.

The Republic of Austria is slightly smaller than Maine, with 8.3 million people. More correctly, it is a federal parliamentary democracy, and voting begins at the age of 16. The capital is Vienna. Ninety percent speak German and about a quarter is Roman Catholic.

The GDP/capita is $39,200 (or as high as $45,000, depending on source). Austria actually has proven oil and natural gas reserves, but imports almost ten times more oil than it exports and five times more natural gas.

The Federal President is Heinz Fischer. As it is part of the European Union, the Euro is used. The internet country code is “at.” Both genders serve for 6 months of active duty and 8 years of reserve service. Drug transshipment is a concern.

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Austrian history dates back to 976, when Leopold von Babenberg became the ruler of much of present-day Austria. In 1276 Rudolf I became the first Habsburg to ascend to the throne, and the Habsburgs ruled Austria for nearly 750 years.

In 1938 Germany sent its military forces into Austria and annexed the country, an action that received enthusiastic support among most Austrians. The great majority of the 200,000 Jewish population of the country was murdered or forced into exile. With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, greater attention was given in many countries to unresolved issues from World War II, such as this one. Since 1994, Austria has committed to providing victims and heirs some $1 billion in total compensation.

Last year, the far right gained 29% of the vote, and the most charismatic of the lot is 39-year old Heinz-Christian Strache, the leader of the Freedom party. Perhaps a Neo-Nazi, Islam, he says, is the fascism of the 21st century, that many immigrants need to be deported and is known to mock gays. A former dental technician, he is the new poster boy of Europe's extreme right. Oh, Hitler was born in Austria, but the country is also famous for apfelstrudel, Pez candy, Red Bull, Mozart, Strauss, Freud and Arnold Schwarzenegger.
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Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrials went up 1; today, it dropped 1, to 8763. World markets were mixed. Gold rose $1/toz to $955. Oil finally finished the day above $70/barrel. Well, Fereidun’s $40/bbl prognostication might fall short by a factor of two.

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Oh, I must report on my GM adventure. To recap, I bought GM at $1.38/share a week before bankruptcy. I held it to the bitter end, hoping something would happen. Well, the company went bankrupt and I thought I got wiped out. But, to my shock, the stock became GMGMQ, and just today, shot up to $1.50/share. I thus sold, and made a few bucks in the process, because I had only bought it as a hedge against my Ford shares. But, primarily to maintain a sense of idiocy, I equally converted the resultant GMGMQ funds into SIRI, FRE and FNM, for this Ameritrade account is mostly to take ridiculous gambles...and, after nearly a decade, it is plus 20% or so, not much of an annual return, but better than the 20-40% loss many are experiencing.
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PEAK HUMANITY: 1998

If the doomsdayers are right, when did society begin to decline? Let me suggest 1998. Why?

- In December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was signed (close enough to 1998).

- Bill met Monica, resulting in his impeachment, which Hillary labeled a “vast right-wing conspiracy.”

- Our U.S. Senate passed a resolution urging President Clinton to respond to the threat of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction program.

- The FDA approved Viagra.

- An antitrust suit was filed against Microsoft.

- This is the year I announced my retirement from the UH. Officially, it was the end of the following year. Yes, a decade ago.

- Charlton Heston became president of the NRA.

- The Catholic priest scandal unfolded.

- Russian banks collapsed and the world stock markets registered their second largest decline in history. However, our Federal government showed a surplus of $70 billion, the first in 29 years.

- Google was founded.

- Jesse Ventura was elected governor of Minnesota. Now they have the Al Franken embarrassment.

- Sonny Bono skied into a tree and died.

Actually, not really an eventful year. However, based on 2009 dollars, oil reached a near all time low of $15.96/barrel in 1998, as compared to 1950 ($25.10/bbl), 1972 ($14.29/bbl), 1980 ($99.18/bbl) and around $70/bbl today, but surely to go up and up. I could have analyzed historical GDP/capita data and all those other parametric comparisons, but I’ll leave that to others. Yes, Humanity, perhaps, began to decline, maybe for good, in 1998. Blame the price of oil.
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After dropping 136, the Dow Jones Industrials recovered to plus 1 at 8764, but world markets almost all declined. Crude oil inched up to $68.65/barrel and gold eased down $1/toz to $954. Money Morning hints that we might be on the leading edge of a new bull market, or not.

Here is something really interesting. I thought my GM stocks were worthless when it went bankrupt. As I mentioned, I bought some shares the weekend before it went under, just as a hedge for Ford. Well, looks like GM is now GMGMQ and the value has actually come up recently, so I can actually still cash it in and not lose any money. Amazing! I called Ameritrade, and the person on the line said, who knows what will happen, but there is a chance that the price will go up further, but could also get zeroed out, as in the cases of United Air and Enron. I guess I'll hold on to see what happens.
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If you wondered what the photo was all about, it is just a 1998 gathering of a SETI group, for my chapter 4 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity hints that the answer to our destiny might well be streaming in from outer space.

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D-DAY 2009

Barack Obama, Prince Charles, Gordon Brown, Stephen Harper and Nicholas Sarkozy

Yesterday, was the 65th anniversary of D-Day. Very few know what the D stands for, as the correct answer is that it does not really stand for anything like Decision. D-Day is a military term to denote the day for a combat attack (when you don’t want to indicated in advance what day that will be). Originally, D-Day was to be June 5, 1944, but the weather forced a delay to June 6.

All the deception worked, as the German officer in charge of the defense, General Erwin Rommel, himself went home to celebrate his wife’s birthday. Allied mistakes also helped, as there was some information sent to the French resistance when an attack appeared to be imminent in May, but the German intelligence intercepted these signals, passed them up the hierarchy, but only caused them to doubt those June 5 notices as another false wolf cry. Hitler’s staff also refused to awaken him that morning, so the deployment of tanks was severely delayed.

The Normandy Landings were the first operations of the Allied invasion known as Operation Neptune and Operation Overlord. There were also subsidiary 'attacks' mounted under the codenames Operation Glimmer and Operation Taxable to distract the German forces from the real landing areas. The operation was the largest single-day amphibious invasion of all time, with 11,590 support aircraft, nearly 7000 marine vessels and 156,000 troops landing along a 50-mile stretch of the coast. By the end of the first week, more than double the number of ground forces and 54,186 vehicles passed through the beaches.

What is generally not known is that in April and May of 1944, something on the order of 12,000 airmen and 2,000 aircraft were lost to pave the way for D-Day. Up to 20,000 French civilians were killed from these bombings. At most, 5,000 allied forces died in the invasion and immediate aftermath. Details can be found at http://www.dday.org/. German losses were said to be between 4000 and 9000. However, over 425,000 troops from both sides were killed, wounded or were listed as missing during the entirety of the Battle of Normandy. The worst came after D-Day. Plus, 200,000 Germans were captured as prisoners of war.

While the Spanish Armada and Napoleon were unsuccessful in crossing the English Channel, D-Day was the clear success that led the way to end World War II in Europe less than a year later. For some reason, the first significant movie was not made until 1962, THE LONGEST DAY. Then came The Big Red One, Saving Private Ryan and the TV series, Band of Brothers. The most obscure D-Day movie might be Up from the Beach, a sequel starring Red Buttons (who was in The Longest Day).
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My blog stock challenge status as of now is 155%.

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Seventy nine countries have visited my blog: 2117-118-79

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ETERNAL LIFE (Part 5)

The following continues the serialization of Chapter 3 from SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Humanity:

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My Waning Years in Biotechnology

How does one mourn the death of a grandchild? There is an Oriental proverb that says one’s responsibility to family is not completed until the grandchildren are successful. I thus have, in part, failed, for there has been a premature death, of a promising young child.

I have no real children, but I can point to a number of visions in various stages of attaining reality, or not. In most, I am a generation removed from actual parenthood. That is, I planted a crucial seed. In 1990, when I chaired the World Hydrogen Energy Conference held in Hawaii, I was referred to as the grandfather of hydrogen—U.S. Senator Spark Matsunaga was the father—for I had, a decade previously, drafted the very first legislation on hydrogen introduced in the U.S. Senate. I was all of 50 years old when called grandfather. I few years later, at a biohydrogen workshop in Tokyo, the speaker, David Hall of the UK, showed a slide of a project on which we had worked together, and pointed out I was a collaborator, and he referred to me as the grandfather of the field. This was partly, too, because I had chaired the first three international biohydrogen workshops a decade earlier mentioned in the previous section. Having written the first Senate draft of the bill on hydrogen, which became law, I take particular pride in serving as the grandfather of biohydrogen, and, perhaps, hydrogen in general (Chapter 4 in Book 1 treats this subject.) Yes, Henry Cavendish, in 1766, discovered hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe, but call him an early great grandfather.
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The Dow Jones Industrials went up, then down 139 in the first 70 minutes of activity, then recovered to plus 13 at 8763. This stabilization was important for next week, as, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.4%, the rate of loss slowed. A steep descent at the end of the day would have been ominous for a day of relatively good news. World markets all went up, except for Scandinavia. Oil stayed relatively steady at $68.54/barrel.

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COUNTRY #9: AUSTRALIA

The Australian flag uses the Union Jack in the top left quadrant, with a seven point star representing the six states plus territories below, while on the right is the Southern Cross constellation using five stars, one five pointed smaller one and four seven pointed and larger. Australia is the smallest continent and largest island.

The indigenous inhabitants were there 48,000 years ago. The Spaniards came as early as 1561, followed by the Dutch in 1606. Neither made any attempt at settlement, so in 1770, Captain James Cook claimed the Eastern portion for Great Britain. Yes, the first settlers in the late 1700’s were mostly convicts. In 1829, the entire continent was made part of the United Kingdom. Soon after gold was found in 1851 (just after the San Francisco 49ers), the more traditional form of emigration occurred. Various original tribes once numbered 350,000, but significantly declined over time. But today there are just over half a million, 2.5% of the population.

The Australia Commonwealth has six states, each headed by a premier. The capital was transferred from Melbourne to Canberra in 1927, with the city designed by American Walter Griffin, which was just as well because their Constitution was patterned after ours. The current prime minister is Kevin Rudd. Australia supports the U.S. in Afghanistan.

This is officially a constitutional democracy, but recognizing Queen Elizabeth as sovereign and having a parliamentary system of government make it a constitutional monarchy. It is about the size of the 48 contiguous United States with 7% the population (21 million, doubling since World War 2, with nearly a quarter being foreign born). The life expectancy is approaching 83 and GDP/capita is $38,000. Literacy is 99%. The ethnicity is 92% white, with most being Christian, although 30% either are unspecified or have no religion.

Australia is now in its 17th year of uninterrupted economic expansion and enjoys a higher standard of living than any G7 country save for the United States. The federal government has zero net debt and, through the "Future Fund," is building a net asset Both oil and natural gas are produced, with the former also imported and latter exported on balance. There is no nuclear powerplant. Military expenditures are 2.4% of GDP.

Tasmania is one of the six states, located 150 miles south of the continent and is about the size of West Virginia. Opium is legally produced. While the country at large has the kangaroo, this island has the Tasmanian Devil (see photo), a marsupial about the size of a small dog. It is carnivorous, but, unfortunately is endangered because of a tumor disease.

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The Dow Jones Industrial climbed 75 to 8750, oil is just under $70/barrel and gold rose $15/toz to $980.

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COLLEAGUES: DO THE THE BEST AND RIGHT THING

The State of Hawaii is in terrible economic shape, but it could be worse. Governor Linda Lingle has proposed a furlough of 3 days/month for two years for all State employees, which will reduce their paycheck by 14%. The Department of Education and University of Hawaii have boards that will need to make the final determination on how to cut an equivalent amount of funds.

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Everyone is complaining. Much of it is political, but those affected are also saying why do we have to take all the burden. Sad to say, but that is what can be expected from our society today.

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This is an ideal moment for teachers and faculty to declare that they would be willing to accept this pay cut, and continue to teach and supervise research for the benefit of their students. Under the current conditions, this would be the best and right thing to do.

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My sense is that the world economy will slowly recover, tourists will return and state revenues should experience an improvement by 2010. It is possible, then, that this sacrifice could well extend only for a year.

My greatest worry is not this recession but the possible coming depression. I will predict that, when the economy improves, the price of oil will spike past the high of $147/barrel attained in July of 2008. Not sure when, but certainly in five to ten years. Saudi Arabia already warned on 26May2009 of $150/barrel oil in THREE YEARS.

Here is the problem when oil is priced at that rate:

1. Our economy is too dependent on tourism. Even high tech was decimated this year by the State Legislature. I've long been suggesting the Blue Revolution, but my pontifications rarely gain any attention.

2. Jet fuel prices will skyrocket again. Tourists will, then, really stop coming to Hawaii, with no relief possible unless we can find a way to reduce their travel expenses. I can foresee a State depression for a very long period.

3. Biofuels from terrestrial crops will be very expensive and cannot be expected to replace jet fuel. This will be a matter of pure economics. However, do the R&D, and pray for a miracle.

4. Biofuels from marine algae have a shot at replacing jet fuel, except that it is not yet ready, and will take at least a decade to develop with ten times more funding and various tax incentives. My survey of specialists in this field indicates that oil would need to go up to something in the range of $200/barrel for current microalgae systems to begin to become competitive. This should be a very high priority R&D effort for the University of Hawaii.

5. There is no next generation airliner capable of replacing the current planes.

There is, however, one longshot concept that deserves a chance. Rinaldo Brutoco, president of the World Business Academy, has proposed the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper. His idea is to design a dirigible filled and powered with hydrogen from renewable energy locations (such as windfarms and the Puna geothermal field) capable of flying at speeds up to 500 miles per hour (although 350 MPH is his current maximum). The H2 Clipper would then carry passengers and deliver renewable hydrogen to the West Coast.

As corporations like Boeing and Lockheed Martin will never themselves initiate such an adventure, we need the Federal government to step in and take the lead. However, 75% of the Department of Defense energy budget is for jet fuel. We thus have something in common with that most supported of agencies beginning to do something about this problem. With Senator Dan Inouye as Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman, Barack Obama as President of the United States and a commitment by the current White House to go green (sustainable aviation has not even been discussed), we have never, ever, been in a better position to take a leadership role to develop something like the Hawaiian Hydrogen Clipper.

Yes, there is the Hindenburg disaster, no existing hydrogen market and a million reasons why this project should not work. Let's, though, see how this can succeed. Does anyone have a better idea?

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After dipping more than 150 points, the Dow Jones Industrials recovered over the final half hour to only lose 66 to 8675. European markets all fell and those in the Orient rose. Maybe Fereidun might have a clue after all, as oil dropped $2.30/barrel to $66.25. $26 dollars to go. Gold fell $19/toz to $963.

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THE FUTURE PRICE OF OIL

Petroleum now sells for $68.17/barrel. This morning, the Honolulu Advertiser reported that Fereidun Fesharaki predicted crude oil would drop to $40/barrel this summer because of inventory build-up. This is contrary to historical precedence, for summer driving normally reduces this supply. Yet, this recession is tricky, and our economy might yet cave in again. Anyway, is he believable?

Well, he has been a Manoa Campus colleague of mine for about thirty years. He was energy advisor to the president of Iran in the late 1970’s, when he was asked to re-invigorate their nuclear program. He chose to leave the country and ended up at the East-West Center, where he has been speculating on the future price of petroleum. He is a Senior Fellow at the Center and drives a very expensive car, so he must be doing well.

Does this mean he has predicted well in the past? Not necessarily, for like all prognosticators, he is sometimes right and many times wrong.

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Let me start by quoting Alexei Miller, CEO of Gazprom, the world’s largest natural gas company, who said on 10June08 that oil prices will reach $250 a barrel in the foreseeable future. A month later, T. Boone Pickens said, oil will never go below $100/barrel again. T. Boone had double egg on his face, for on December 8, long after oil sunk below $100/bbl, he made another guess that oil would not drop below $40/bbl. Alas, oil, that month, slipped below $33/bbl. However, Pickens and Miller are natural gas men.

How is our Department of Energy doing? At the end of 2007 it predicted that oil would cost $70/bbl in 2030….yes, 2030. Then in half a year, oil surged to $147/bbl. So, in December of 2008, they said oil would go to $130/bbl in 2030. They could be right, but do you know how much this forecast is worth?

So in February this year, when oil again dipped below $35/bbl, the USDOE reported that oil prices would average $43.25/bbl in 2009 and $54.50/bbl in 2010. They had the nerve to stick in those cents. At about the same time, Morgan Stanley saw a drop to $25/bbl in the April-June period (and oil barely got within $10/bbl of that figure), averaging $35/bbl in 2009 and $55/bbl in 2010. Tossing into a pot and stirring, we might get something like $40/bbl in 2009 and $55/bbl in 2010.

As oil is looming to hit $70/bbl soon, you can only wonder why these largely credible individuals and organizations bother to keep embarrassing themselves. My rule of thumb is that these prognosticators could be right, but they are usually wrong. But, then, again, baseball hitters don't even get 4 hits out of 10 at bats for the year. On the other hand, you want your personal heart surgeon to be right 100% of the time. Oil economists fall somewhere between these extremes.

The only way that the USDOE and MS can be close is if Fesharaki’s surmisal turns out to be true. Absent any better information, then, the following table (dollars/barrel) should prevail.


YEAR...ACTUAL........ADJUSTED

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1960 .........2.91 ...................20.88

1972 .........3.60 ...................18.29

1975 ........12.21 ..................48.22

1979 .......25.10 ...................73.44

1980 ........37.42 ..................97.47

1998 .......11.91 ...................15.52

2008........99.65....................99.65

2009.....($40??) ...............($40??)
2010.....($55???)……...….($55???)

I don’t predict oil prices with any kind of seriousness (although you can analyze my 2012 prophecy in the box on the right), but my gut feeling is that the $55/barrel figure will turn out to be correct, but for 2009, and 2010 will exceed $70/bbl. T. Boone, incidentally, now says that oil will hit $75 by the end of this year, confirmed by PVM Oil Associates, which expects a rally to $78/bbl in six months.

In case you missed it, on 26May09, Saudi Arabia predicted $150/bbl in three years. Yes, 2012 is shaping up to be a monumental year.

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The Dow Jones Industrials rose 19 to 8741 and world markets were mixed. Gold increased $8/toz to $982.
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GM IS DEAD, BUT MY BLOG CHALLENGE IS LOOKING GOOD

General Motors is bankrupt, but the stock market rejoiced, zooming up 221 to 8721, as did all world stock exchanges. I should be in mourning, as I plunked down a few bucks, hoping for a miracle. But his was a hedge on my Ford holdings. I should mention that I still also have useless United Air and Enron certificates from the pre-challenge days.

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That article above had a telling table: GM will have nearly ten times more retired people to be supported by those working. Further, two decades ago, GM had ten times more hourly workers than today.

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Some of you might remember my blog stock challenge when the market dipped in early November. It dropped again that month, which triggered a second buy, then I waited until March before picking up Ford. Including the GM debacle, today, I am 65% ahead. That means your $1 investment should today be worth $1.65. Remember, too, I implemented a virtually insane plan: buying only those companies into sustainable resource development. Dumb because I caught the price of oil as it was plummeting, and no one with any sense should be investing in renewable energy development firms when the crude price was heading to an almost all time low. Remember, it was in 1998 that oil hit bottom (yes, even lower than 1973, in current dollars). My Chapter 1 of SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth goes into these details.

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Now, the price of crude oil has doubled from that low (but is not even half of what it was on July 11, 2008) and the stock market is more than 2000 points higher and rising, so the challenge is looking better and better.

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Gold dropped $5/toz to $974 and oil prices are still creeping up towards $70/barrel (see right).

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Cyclone Aila's death toll is finally approaching the 300 predicted last week. This is the storm that devastated Kolkata and Bangladesh. Of course, our hurricane season starts today. Meterologists are worried about the unpredictability of Atlantic storms and are suggesting above average conditions this year. The Eastern Pacific is expected to have an average year, but that still means more and worse compared to the Atlantic.

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