My Huffington Post article on the swine flu about seven weeks ago indicated that, worldwide, there were 500 new cases and 3 deaths each day. Turns out that is exactly the situation for the USA today. The global statistics are 1500/day with 9 deaths/day. Compare this with 1,000,000 flu cases/day and 1000 deaths/day from the “common” flu, and there are three points that can be made:
1. Relative to the flu, then, swine flu remains in the noise level.
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2. However, the fact that the incidence of new cases has risen by a factor of 3 is a concern, with the more dangerous season still to come.
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3. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention surmised that, actually, there have thus far been more than a million cases, just in the U.S. The official reported total as of today was 43,771 cases, so something makes no sense here. This article goes further to state that U.S. health officials strengthened their recommendations for seasonal flu vaccines on Friday, saying all children aged 6 months to 18 years should be immunized -- especially because of the H1N1 flu pandemic. However, in the very next sentence is the following: the seasonal vaccine provides little or no protection against H1N1 swine flu. Thus, you need to read this article to try to make any sense of it. If you figure it out, let me know.
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What is the status of a swine flu vaccine to protect you? Well, it's apparently now on trial, and the federal government has already spent more than a billion dollars to purchase a sufficient quantity for all of us. The problem is one of timing and priorities because the availability is to some degree being delayed by production problems. The companies making this vaccine are Sanofi-Aventis, Novartis, Baxter, GlaxoSmithKline and Solvay. Check out their stock values since the scare began.
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Two months ago, there was about a one chance in a hundred of you dying if you contracted the swine flu. Today, this number is less serious, as one in 150 now pass away. However, only one in a thousand succumb to the flu, so you don’t want to take a chance on getting the swine flu.
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So, the concern I have repeatedly brought up is the matter of overreaction. I still think this is the case, and wonder why the World Health Organization, in particular, is making such a big fuss about it. But people are worried, and what is a billion dollars to prevent a pandemic when we are spending a trillion to help Wall Street?
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The Dow Jones Industrials edged up 15 to 9109, with world markets almost all also up. Crude oil remains in the $68/barrel range and gold increased $3/toz to $954.
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