To recap parts 1 to 3, the FREE Hydrogen Age was advocated as a solution to be considered if the world got suddenly clobbered by the combined hammer of Peak Oil and Global Warming, triggering a global depression. Certainly, under business as usual conditions, the notion of FREE hydrogen, or FREE anything, would only draw ridicule. These posts were also carried in The Huffington Post (http://HuffingtonPost.com).
-
Last week, at the G8 meeting in Japan, our global leaders made what to some might seem like a promising declaration: cut carbon dioxide by half by 2050. The problem is that this is kind of what they also said last year in Germany, except, this time with weakened language. Is this progress? In a sense, one shoe (the environmental one) has, thus, fallen.
Last week, at the G8 meeting in Japan, our global leaders made what to some might seem like a promising declaration: cut carbon dioxide by half by 2050. The problem is that this is kind of what they also said last year in Germany, except, this time with weakened language. Is this progress? In a sense, one shoe (the environmental one) has, thus, fallen.
Regarding the other, Peak Oil and prices, former Shell chairman, Lord Ron Oxburgh, warned in September of 2007, that oil could reach $150/barrel, and in November, Usameh Jamali of OPEC said the same. Morgan Stanley was more specific, and earlier this spring predicted $150/barrel oil by July 4. Well, that did not happen, but, at $146/barrel, got awfully close the day prior. In May, Goldman Sachs forecast $200/barrel oil by the end of the year. A really hot summer, where millions succumb, plus oil at this lofty range, could well trigger a devastating economic plunge to set the stage for that FREE Energy Age.
I recall an AMERICAN SCIENTIST cartoon way back when where a professor at a blackboard solved a difficult problem by inserting "a miracle happens." Avoiding the hard question of who will actually make the command decision (I think the G8 group should be it, but that is another post) and how, let's say a miracle, in fact, occurs. A legal proclamation is made to make hydrogen free by January 1, 2020. How might the transition look?
First, it will be extremely difficult to provide unlimited free hydrogen by that date, but not impossible. The infrastructure is currently lacking. You can't instantly convert the ground and air transport system to use hydrogen. But that's not the point, for industry will do all it can and begin maximizing the availability of anything that uses hydrogen. With wind power and all the other solar options, made competitive by a severe carbon tax, facilities can be mass-produced to make free hydrogen. The supply should at least match the means to utilize it. Would electricity, too, be made free? Something to consider if generated from a renewable source. So, maybe we should be saying, FREE Renewable Hydrogen and Electricity Age. In any case, if everything works to perfection, only a relatively small fraction of actual energy utilized in 2020 will in fact be FREE hydrogen, or electricity from anything related to hydrogen, but this is of secondary importance, for an exponential trend will have been initiated.
The Free Hydrogen Age will need a bridging renewable liquid fuel, and the world, as I intimated in an earlier post ("What is the Best Biofuel?"), seems headed down a dead end bioethanol / biodiesel pathway. Either go to Part 2 of that article ("Ethanol versus Methanol") or Chapter 2 of my book on SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth found in the box on the right, and learn why biomethanol is the wise choice.
-
Part 4 is now getting too long, so let me stop here. For Part 5, you can today go to http://huffingtonpost.com/, type "Patrick Takahash" into the upper right box, click on SEARCH, than click on Part 5, which will also be covered in this blog tomorrow.
-
Oil is really dropping, today to $130.17/bbl. The Dow Jones Insdustrials are happy, rising 207 today to 11467.
-
Tropical Storm Bertha is moving EAST, away from the U.S., and will turn to the northeast, weakening and moving north of Maine by later this weekend. However, Hurricane Elida is now at 80 MPH, moving west toward a position south of the Big Island. This is a good a time as any, to repeat the story of Iniki, which on September 8, 1992, was moving west, at a position 385 miles South Southwest of Hilo, when it became a hurricane. However, on the 9th, the subtropical high pressure ridge weakened, and Iniki turned WNW. On the 10th at 5 AM, Iniki was 425 South of Honolulu. This path continued until, at a point 400 miles South of Lihue, Iniki turned more nothward, than more east than west. In the early morning hours of September 11, Iniki was 130 miles SSW of Lihue. Yes, 9/ll is also a catastrophic day for Hawaii. At 3:30 PM, the eye crossed the south coast of Kauai just East of Waimea as a Category 4 Hurricane of 140 MPH, with gusts up to 175 MPH. The worth of damages today amounted to $3 billion, with 1,421 homes destroyed. A month later, only 20% of the electricity had come on line. Who knows what would have happened if Iniki struck Honolulu--as the pathway on the 10th showed a direct line to Oahu for a period--as the devastation could have easily been ten times worse. WHILE ONE DOES NOT WANT TO CRY WOLF ALL THE TIME, INIKI MAINTAINED A FAIRLY CONVENTIONAL PATH FROM MEXICO, WEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...UNTIL SOMETHING UNUSUAL HAPPENED. A post-script is that there is one theory that Iniki actually began off Africa, moved across the Atlantic into the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, skipped through Central America (shrouded as a front), gained speed in the Pacific, and hit Hawaii.
-
No comments:
Post a Comment