Al Gore sounded the trumpet yesterday: $5 trillion to produce 100% Earth-friendly electricity in a decade. The current annual U.S. Gross Domestic Product is $12 trillion. Go to http://hawaiienergyoptions.blogspot.com/ for the details.
Ten years ago, the average cost of electricity in the U.S. was about 8 cents/kWh. Today, the average price is approaching 11 cents/kWh, a 38% boost. Idaho only pays 6.5 cents/kWh (hydro and old coal plants are cost effective), but Connecticut is at 20 cents/kWh.
In Hawaii, the price of electricity in 1998 was 12 cents/kWh. Today, it is just above 30 cents/kWh. Maui is around 40 cents/kWh and Lanai is at 45 cents/kWh or so. Powerplants on the mainland rarely use oil or, as in the case of Hawaii, Bunker C and equivalents, the gooey leftover after jet fuel, gasoline and other liquids have been refined out of the crude.
But is this why electricity rates have soared in Hawaii? Yes, as while coal prices have doubled or tripled and natural gas has increased by a factor of 3.5, oil has jumped from $12/barrel to $129 during the past decade, a factor greater than 10. An interesting sidenote is that natural gas sells for $9/1000 cubic feet in the nation, while in Hawaii we pay $25 for the same amount of synthetic natural gas.
Gasoline in Hawaii on July 17, 2008 was $4.55/gallon, while the national average was only 44 cents less, at $4.11. Thus, Hawaii’s gasoline is only 11% above the national norm, whereas our electricity is 172% and SNG 178% higher. As we get frustrated about spending $100 filling our SUVs, remember that the general price of gasoline in Europe is over $10/gallon. Germany was reportedly $11.37/gallon a month ago. See my various articles on methanol versus ethanol, etc.
Back to electricity, then, should we thus switch to nuclear fission? Uranium (uranium oxide) cost $10/pound in 2000, jumped to $136/pound.a year ago, but has settled in the range of $50/pound. Thus, uranium prices have recently become metastable, plus there are the radioactive waste storage and terrorist worries, not to speak of trying to get anything like this endorsed by the general public. With our stifling traffic, we have been debating rail for 20 years. You can well imagine how long nuclear power might take. It is, though, a non-issue for Hawaii.
Windpower is surging, as government incentives have made this option competitive with coal and nuclear. You’ve of course read about David Murdock on his $750 million windfarm of up to 400 MW emanating from Lanai. T. Boone Pickens will be spending many trillions to build a 4,000 MW windfarm in Texas, which spurred utility officials to give preliminary approval for $5 billion to build new transmission lines. But in Hawaii, as we’re not linked to the national grid and winds come and go, some sort of back-up or storage complement is needed for this alternative to supply more than 20% of the total capacity. Ultimately compressed air or hydrolysis of water into hydrogen might someday be considered, but, for now, this is not a problem because we have the existing electrical production system that can in time be refined for this purpose. The best wind sites in Hawaii are on the open ocean between our islands, for the winds are channeled and enhanced, while the “land” is almost free. The marine technology, though, is not yet in sight.
Solar thermal has recently gained momentum in Southern California, as utility scale electricity is reportedly in the range of 10 cents/kWh. Numbers are widespread for coal, nuclear and wind, but, in general, something on the order of 4-8 cents/kWh have been reported for all three. If a severe carbon tax is instituted, coal electricity could go up to 11 cents/kWh and natural gas systems to 10 cents/kWh.
Geothermal power supplies around 25 MW on the Big Island, and worldwide can be produced in the 4-8 cents/kWh range. As a rough rule of thumb, 1000 MWs are needed for a million people, as in our entire state. There remain environmental roadblocks to geo-expansion in Hawaii. The combination of those who live in the Puna region and don’t want a lifestyle change, marijuana growers, Hawaiian religious purists, and those not particularly fond of noise (usually very quiet) and smells (hydrogen sulfide is a natural component of our volcanic emissions) have successfully fended off this option. The Hawaii Natural Energy Institute twenty years ago guided a geothermal effluent products program, where artworks were fashioned from glass made from the silica in the fluid, agriculture was enhanced with the available heat and the concept of Hawaiian geothermal onsens was featured. Details can be found in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth (http://simplesolutionsbook1.com/). This was the only geo-project popular with the local community.
Solar photovoltaics have hovered around 20 cents/kWh, and, even if the announced paint on PV becomes real, the cost will remain above 15 cents/kWh, with potential for 10 cents/kWh for utility scale applications.
Ocean energy? Wavepower is very, very risky and ocean thermal energy conversion remains to be demonstrated. We await development and hope for success, as, like geothermal, OTEC provides baseload electricity, plus, freshwater, too, if desired. Then there is the Blue Revolution. Go to http://hawaiienergyoptions.blogspot.com/ for the latest announcements.
The relative electricity costs vary quite widely, but a reasonable average in mid-2008, might be:
Cents/kWh
Coal without carbon capture……….…..…….…...6
Coal with carbon capture………………....….…..11
Ten years ago, the average cost of electricity in the U.S. was about 8 cents/kWh. Today, the average price is approaching 11 cents/kWh, a 38% boost. Idaho only pays 6.5 cents/kWh (hydro and old coal plants are cost effective), but Connecticut is at 20 cents/kWh.
In Hawaii, the price of electricity in 1998 was 12 cents/kWh. Today, it is just above 30 cents/kWh. Maui is around 40 cents/kWh and Lanai is at 45 cents/kWh or so. Powerplants on the mainland rarely use oil or, as in the case of Hawaii, Bunker C and equivalents, the gooey leftover after jet fuel, gasoline and other liquids have been refined out of the crude.
But is this why electricity rates have soared in Hawaii? Yes, as while coal prices have doubled or tripled and natural gas has increased by a factor of 3.5, oil has jumped from $12/barrel to $129 during the past decade, a factor greater than 10. An interesting sidenote is that natural gas sells for $9/1000 cubic feet in the nation, while in Hawaii we pay $25 for the same amount of synthetic natural gas.
Gasoline in Hawaii on July 17, 2008 was $4.55/gallon, while the national average was only 44 cents less, at $4.11. Thus, Hawaii’s gasoline is only 11% above the national norm, whereas our electricity is 172% and SNG 178% higher. As we get frustrated about spending $100 filling our SUVs, remember that the general price of gasoline in Europe is over $10/gallon. Germany was reportedly $11.37/gallon a month ago. See my various articles on methanol versus ethanol, etc.
Back to electricity, then, should we thus switch to nuclear fission? Uranium (uranium oxide) cost $10/pound in 2000, jumped to $136/pound.a year ago, but has settled in the range of $50/pound. Thus, uranium prices have recently become metastable, plus there are the radioactive waste storage and terrorist worries, not to speak of trying to get anything like this endorsed by the general public. With our stifling traffic, we have been debating rail for 20 years. You can well imagine how long nuclear power might take. It is, though, a non-issue for Hawaii.
Windpower is surging, as government incentives have made this option competitive with coal and nuclear. You’ve of course read about David Murdock on his $750 million windfarm of up to 400 MW emanating from Lanai. T. Boone Pickens will be spending many trillions to build a 4,000 MW windfarm in Texas, which spurred utility officials to give preliminary approval for $5 billion to build new transmission lines. But in Hawaii, as we’re not linked to the national grid and winds come and go, some sort of back-up or storage complement is needed for this alternative to supply more than 20% of the total capacity. Ultimately compressed air or hydrolysis of water into hydrogen might someday be considered, but, for now, this is not a problem because we have the existing electrical production system that can in time be refined for this purpose. The best wind sites in Hawaii are on the open ocean between our islands, for the winds are channeled and enhanced, while the “land” is almost free. The marine technology, though, is not yet in sight.
Solar thermal has recently gained momentum in Southern California, as utility scale electricity is reportedly in the range of 10 cents/kWh. Numbers are widespread for coal, nuclear and wind, but, in general, something on the order of 4-8 cents/kWh have been reported for all three. If a severe carbon tax is instituted, coal electricity could go up to 11 cents/kWh and natural gas systems to 10 cents/kWh.
Geothermal power supplies around 25 MW on the Big Island, and worldwide can be produced in the 4-8 cents/kWh range. As a rough rule of thumb, 1000 MWs are needed for a million people, as in our entire state. There remain environmental roadblocks to geo-expansion in Hawaii. The combination of those who live in the Puna region and don’t want a lifestyle change, marijuana growers, Hawaiian religious purists, and those not particularly fond of noise (usually very quiet) and smells (hydrogen sulfide is a natural component of our volcanic emissions) have successfully fended off this option. The Hawaii Natural Energy Institute twenty years ago guided a geothermal effluent products program, where artworks were fashioned from glass made from the silica in the fluid, agriculture was enhanced with the available heat and the concept of Hawaiian geothermal onsens was featured. Details can be found in SIMPLE SOLUTIONS for Planet Earth (http://simplesolutionsbook1.com/). This was the only geo-project popular with the local community.
Solar photovoltaics have hovered around 20 cents/kWh, and, even if the announced paint on PV becomes real, the cost will remain above 15 cents/kWh, with potential for 10 cents/kWh for utility scale applications.
Ocean energy? Wavepower is very, very risky and ocean thermal energy conversion remains to be demonstrated. We await development and hope for success, as, like geothermal, OTEC provides baseload electricity, plus, freshwater, too, if desired. Then there is the Blue Revolution. Go to http://hawaiienergyoptions.blogspot.com/ for the latest announcements.
The relative electricity costs vary quite widely, but a reasonable average in mid-2008, might be:
Cents/kWh
Coal without carbon capture……….…..…….…...6
Coal with carbon capture………………....….…..11
Natural gas without carbon capture………………7
Natural gas with carbon capture………………...10
Nuclear…………………………………...…………8 (waste disposal??)
Wind Power…………………………….…………5-7
Solar Thermal………………...…...…………… 9-12
Solar Photovoltaics.....................................15-20
Natural gas with carbon capture………………...10
Nuclear…………………………………...…………8 (waste disposal??)
Wind Power…………………………….…………5-7
Solar Thermal………………...…...…………… 9-12
Solar Photovoltaics.....................................15-20
So in quick summary, windpower is competitive, solar power towers and other thermal facilities appear reasonably close to prime time, but those next generation high tech photovoltaics concepts await realization. So why is gasoline here only 11% above the national average, while electricity is 172% higher? To repeat, most powerplants on the mainland use coal and natural gas, while those in Hawaii mostly burn oil, which has experienced a price increase greater than ten during the past decade.
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Oil dropped below $130 to $128.88/barrel today. This is $3.07/gallon. The stock market loves this free fall as the Dow Jone Industrial Average went up 50 points to 11,497.
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-Bertha is back to being a hurricane again, but is headed in a NorthEast direction, away from the U.S. Whew, Elida is now barely a tropical storm with winds at 40 MPH and supposedly will become something called a remnant by the time it reaches a point south of the Big Island. But Fausto is now a hurricane, and is moving an unusual path in the NorthWest direction.
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