WILL THE WORLD WILL REACH 8 BILLION PEOPLE TODAY?

Did you know that only 2.3 billion people live in a democracy? That's 29% of 8 billion.  Donald Trump wants to lower this number by a few more percent. 

One thing about the global population is that no one knows for sure.  So will the number of people reach 8 billion today?  No, we're already past that number.   Time magazine says the world will reach 8 billion on January 1:  WORLD POPULATION UP 75 MILLION THIS YEAR, STANDING AT 8 BILLION ON JAN. 1.

Officially, the United Nations announced that 8 billion was reached in mid-November of last year.

• On 30 July 2022 my posting reported that the world would reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022.
• Then on 19 November 2022, I confirmed that the world hit 8 billion on 15 November 2022.  This number and date were announced by the United Nations Population Division.  
• Watch Rachel Snow of the United Nations Population Fund on November 11 make this video about reaching 8 billion.

AP also came out with the same announcement as Time, citing the U.S. Census Bureau.  

• 
  Actually, if you look very closely at the right graphic, and do the math, the Census Bureau actually said 8 billion was reached on September 23, 2023.  So the Time citation of January 1, 2024 was wrong.
• Further, AP indicated that the UN actually declared 22 November 2022 as the Day of 8 Billion. 
• AP also said that this discrepancy is due to countries counting people differently...or not at all.  India and Nigeria, for example, have not conducted a census in over a decade.
• Some other details.
• The current global median age is now 32.
• But this number will jump to 39 in 2060 because people will be living longer.
• The minimum number of births to remain at the current population is 2.1/female.  Almost 75% of people now live in countries with a fertility rate at that number.  The only countries with a fertility rate above 5 are in Africa.

So what is the correct answer about when the world population reached 8 billion?  Probably at some point between 15 November 2022 and 23 September 2023.

Interesting that the UN in 2012  summarized 65 different maximum sustainable sizes, and the most common figure was 8 billion.  Paul Ehrlich, author of Population Bomb in 1968, a half century later in 2018 thought that there was a near certainty that our civilization would collapse within decades at 8 billion.  He and his wife Anne (who was a co-author of that seminal book) thought this number should be between 1.5 billion and 2 billion.  Then last year, the Ehrlichs, with other experts, stated that the sustainable level of our human population at between 2 and 4 billion.  So by current consensus, we have too many people trying to survive on Planet Earth.

Worldometer, my source for those years of Covid-19 data, has a page showing the world population at 8.082 billion, changing by +2.4 every second.  A few other bits of information.

• Books published this year at 2.8 million, with a new one every 10 seconds.
• Internet users in the world today at 6 billion.
• Overweight people in the world at 1.7 billion.
• Communicable disease deaths this year at 13 million.
• 44.6 million abortions so far this year.
• 45 million HIV/AIDS infected people in the world.
• 392,674 deaths by malaria this year.
• Just a little more than a million suicides in the world this year.
• 1.344 million road traffic fatalities this year.

That's Nigeria above the USA, and Pakistan just below.

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WHEN WILL WE REACH 8 BILLION PEOPLE?

Sorry for being a little late today.  I went to Shimazu Shave Ice and had a Ling Hing Mui flavored shave ice, topped with condensed cream...for $7.

Looking at the Worldometer data of yesterday, Japan remains #1 with 230,555 new cases.  The USA is #2 at 99,061.  The pandemic epicenter has shifted from Europe to Asia/Oceania.  Ranking of major countries in terms of new cases/million population:

• #1  Japan  1831
• #2  Australia  1733
• #3  South Korea 1660
• #4  New Zealand  1579
• #6  Singapore  1335
• #7  Taiwan  974
• #8  Italy  909
• #9  Austria  831
• #10  Germany  783

The average for the U.S is 296 new cases/million.

Most think global warming is our biggest problem.  Over-population is also way up there as a concern.  According to the United Nations, the World will hit a population of 8 billion on November 15. 

• The World reached 7 billion in 2011.
• Our global population is growing at its slowest rate since 1950, increasing at a rate of less than one percent growth rate/year.

• 
  Fertility in two-thirds of the world is now below 2.1 births/woman, roughly a level for zero growth rate.  This was 4.5 in mid-70's.
• The COVID-19 pandemic dropped global life expectancy at birth from 72.9 in 2019 to 71 last year.
• But longevity is expected to rise to 77.2 in 2050.
• More than half of the projected population increase will come from eight countries:  Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines and Tanzania.

• 
  By 2050, there will be twice the number of those 65 years and older than children under 5, and about the same as those up to 12 years old.
• World Population day was July 11.  No one seemed to have cared.

World growth:

• It took hundreds of thousands of years for the world to reach 1 billion in 1804.

• 
  While this is controversial, the eruption of Mount Toba in Indonesia around 74,000 years ago might have dropped our population to as low as 1000 breeding pairs, possibly all in Africa, which is why we all have original roots from that continent.  This eruption was 12 times greater than the largest in recent history, which was Mount Tambora, Indonesia in 1815.  This is Lake Toba today.

• Then by 10,000 BC, our population grew to somewhere between 1 and 15 million.
• From 1 billion in 1804 it took 207 years to reach 7 billion.
• Maybe 10 billion in 2058?
• 2100?  Perhaps 11 billion.

What is the optimal population of Planet Earth?

• In 1994 when the world population was 5.6 million, Paul Ehrlich and his colleages said 1.5 to 2 million.
• Then in 2021 Sir Partha Dasgupta of Cambridge University said:  from half to 5 billion.  
• In both cases, the matter of limited resources was why.  From Dasgupta:

Finally, humans versus others.

• If a virus was the size of a 5 cent coin, a bacterium would be about the size of a dinner plate, and Danny Devito would be 656,168 feet tall.
• Viruses  more than a quadrillion quadrillion.
• About one nonillion, which is 1 followed by 30 zeroes.
• Ten times more than all the bacteria.
• Ants  perhaps 1 quadrillion, which is 1000 trillion or 1 million billion.
• Cockroaches  up to 3 trillion.
• Chickens  26 billion.
• Humans  8 billion.
• Cattle  1 billion.
• Pigs  0.8 billion.
• Blue whales, the largest creature ever--somewhere between 10,000 and 25,000.
• Northern White Rhinos  2 (yes, two, both female)

Finally, there are 550 gigatons of carbon life in the world.  Of that humans are only 0.06 GTC.  All the bacteria are 1,166 times more massive.  Another way of looking at this is that humans make up just 1/10,000th of Earth's biomass.  We are virtually insignificant.

From National Geographic:

A dazzling, multicolored cuticle. A shiny chitinous armor. Photos taken with a microscope lens reveal the hypnotic beauty of the critters we usually dismiss as bugs. 

These colors come from chitin, a substance that forms an insect’s hard outer covering as well as its wings and other flexible parts. The chitin, which has been in arthropods for as long as 550 million years, is behind the metallic-colored scales of the Chrysiridia butterfly’s wings, or the thousands of lenses in a hornet’s compound eye.

You can have a ringtail cat as a pet.

Blood Lily at 10 days:

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INDIA NOW HAS MORE PEOPLE THAN CHINA

Season 21 of American Idol has two weekends to go.  Last night three contestants were eliminated and now 5 remain.  The show also had a scoop of a lifetime, for on walk in King Charles III and Queen Camilla.  He was only crowned Saturday.  Lionel Richie and Katy Perry had joined Nicole Scherzinger, Andrea Bocelli and others in just entertaining them.  Watch this all here.  

One of the five finalists is Iam Tongi, Kahuku High student from Hawaii.  The next show will be on May 14 to whittle the number down to three for the final on Sunday, May 21.

About the topic of today, here is a headline you might have missed...from the United Nations:

UN DESA Policy Brief No. 153: 

India overtakes 

China as the world’s most populous country

Some time last month--can't find the exact day--both their population reached 1,427,775,850.  But India is growing, while China is declining.

Both countries had close to 6 births/woman in 1970.  This number has dropped closer to 1 for China and 2 for India.

Here is why.

The reason why the UN has not settled on an exact date when India surpassed China is that they don't quite know how many babies are actually born in India, for many births are just not reported.  

• The guess is 24 million births/year, or around 66,000/day.  Or, every 21 days the babies born in India equal the current population of Hawaii.
• Of course there too are deaths, and China has a death rate of 29,2311/day, while India's is 25,640 because China has an older population.
• So counting births and deaths, India needs 36 days to equal the current population of Hawaii.

That Figure 2 above has other interesting data.

• The USA had 200 million people in 1970 and had the third largest population.  Russia had 130 million and was #4.
• However, the USA grew 140 million to 340 million in 2023, while Russia only grew by 14 million to 144 million.
• Further, the population of Russia is expected to drop by 8 million to 136 million in 2050.  The U.S. will grow by 35 million to 375 million, but still will drop to #4 in the world.
• Why?  
• Nigeria had a population of around 26 million when I was born in 1940.
• That jumped to 56 million in 1970, and to 224 million in 2023.  
• It is expected to jump by 153 million in 2050 to 377 million, replacing the U.S. as #3.
• Eight countries will be responsible for half the growth of the world population from now to 2050.  Five of them are from Africa.
• Just the sub-Saharan population will double from 1 billion to 2 billion by 2050.
• You can take drastic measures like China did by invoking a one-child policy, and suffer the consequences.
• But Africa does not have a communist form of government, so improving the economy will be the most effective way to control their numbers to minimize world population growth.
• Next to Russia going crazy and initiating a nuclear holocaust, or global warming, and perhaps a more serious pandemic, population control today is high on this list for concern and solution.
• India in 2050 will have 1.67 billion and China will decline to 1.3 billion.
• One more comparison:
• Japan has a population of 125 million.  Vietnam, around 100 million.
• In 2050, Japan will drop to 106 million, while Vietnam is expected to rise to 110 million.
• Japan is expected to further shrink to 83 million in 2100, with over a third of the population 65 and older.  Already, today, more adult diapers are sold in Japan than infant ones!

In the late 1970's, India was more affluent (in economic output/person).  Then China chose a hybrid enterprise pathway--market forces and foreign investment--still controlled by the central government.  In effect, China abandoned communism.  The chose the American way of business over the Soviet Union.

India waited until the 1980s to open its quasi-socialist economy.  But there was too much politics and competing interests.  One advantage of the China form of governance is that the central government dictates.  Why foreign companies chose to locate in China over India were the aggressive investments by China in roads, airports, rail networks and other infrastructure.  Even the USA fell behind in all these areas.

One other reason why India will lag economically is the gender gap in education.  For example, only one-fifth of Indian woman have a formal job.

So while China's population is declining, for now, they will continue to be an economic powerhouse.  However, the country will get old before it gets rich.  China's Singles' Day on 11/11 (the opposite of Valentine's Day) is now the biggest shopping day in the world.  More and more of the younger generation is staying single.  

Perhaps by 2050 there will be too few of them to take care of the elderly.  There is no social security system.  Look for a serious economic decline at some point between now and then, and certainly by 2065.

About the world, the UN reported that on 22 November 2022 we reached a population of 8 billion, with a peak of 9 billion expected around 2090.  That is one UN point of view.  Another says the world population will stabilize at nearly 11 billion in 2200.  

In any case, from a resource availability standpoint, we are over what should be our optimal global population.  From Wikipedia:

Paul R. Ehrlich stated in 2018 that the optimum population is between 1.5 and 2 billion.^[15] Geographer Chris Tucker estimates that 3 billion is a sustainable number, provided human societies rapidly deploy less harmful technologies and best management practices.^[16] Other estimates of a sustainable global population also come in at considerably less than the current population of 8 billion.^[17][18][19]

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THREE WORLD SHAKING EVENTS

Today, I bring you up to date on what is happening around our world.  First, did you know that our world population reached 8 billion on November 15?  Historically and into the future:

Population Milestone	Year Reached
1 Billion	1804
2 Billion	1927
3 Billion	1960
4 Billion	1974
5 Billion	1987
6 Billion	1998
7 Billion	2010
8 Billion	2022
9 Billion	2037
10 Billion	2058

Other facts:

• Notice that it took 12 years from 2010 to reach 8 billion.
• However, growth is slowing, and the expectation is 15 years to get to 9 billion and another 19 years to attain 10 billion.  Certainly too many people for the available resources and the threat of global warming.
• Worrisomely, 96% of the global population growth since 2010 has occurred in less developed countries.
• Our exponential growth could, though, before 2100 begin declining;

The World Cup begins tonight at 7PM in Doha, Qatar, and we board the Regent Seven Seas Explorer in Dubai for Qatar tomorrow.  Well, no, because the country cannot accept any more ships, so we are being sent instead to Bahrain.  Interestingly enough for me, the first time I went around the world on PanAm, one of our stops was to this country.  But I wanted to return to Qatar, for my most read posting in my 14th year of this daily blog was from there a dozen years ago.  Almost exactly 12 years ago my Huffington Post article, indicating: Can Qatar Lead the World Toward Sustainability?

The most popular betting event in the world is the World Cup.  USA has no chance, right?  Right, but Time magazine has a bit more optimism, mainly because of 22-year old Brandon Aaronson.  The U.S. plays Wales on Monday, November 21 at 10PM, Doha time, Qatar.

This region is in high anxiety for the first match between Qatar and Ecuador tonight.  There are two large screens we can see from our hotel room with ultra loud speakers that kept us awake last night.  Spectators pay from $100/seat, plus a lot more for the more luxurious areas, then for any drinks or consumables. 

That boycott of Qatar by Saudi Arabia and its Arab allies ended last year, and all eyes are now focused on Doha.  Even Israel will have its first direct flight to Qatar.  But there continues mounting criticism over foreign worker's and LGBT rights.  Plus there is that matter of blatant bribery to gain approval.  Oh, all alcohol was just banned, and it was underscored that there could not be any public display of affection by fans.

Qatar is the smallest nation to host.  The Big Island of Hawaii has 4027 square miles...Qatar, only 4468 sq.mi.  Population, close to 3 million, but fewer than 12 percent are natural citizens.

• The first first cup was only held in 1930 with 13 teams.
• 32 teams will be competing in 64 games in 8 stadiums, all air-conditioned.
• First ever winter World Cup.
• This will hopefully be a carbon neutral World Cup.

• 
  Qatar spent $300 billion in preparation.
• Just about all 3 million tickets have been sold.
• Youngest player will be Boussoufa Moukoki of Qatar.
• Most promising prospect is Jamal Musiala of Germany.

• 
  Oldest?  Dani Alves (39), Thiago Silva (38), Cristiano Ronald (37), Guillermo Ochoa (37), Luka Madrid (37) and Lionel Messi (35).
• Messi (right) hopes to pass Diego Maradona's 21 World Cup games.  When I was paid to advise Qatar on energy 12 years ago, Messi was playing for Barcelona, which was sponsored by the Qatar Foundation.  This is the shirt they gave me, which I happen to have brought with me on this trip.

• 
  There will be female referees.
• The next World Cup in 2026 will be co-hosted by Canada, Mexico and the USA...with 48 teams competing.

About betting odds, the USA is listed at +10000 to win the World Cup.  In other words, we have LESS than a 1% of attaining this goal.  The favorites are Brazil (22%), Argentina (17%), and France (12.5%).

Jungkook of BTS will tonight perform the official tournament song called Dreamers alongside Qatari singer Fahd Al-Kubaisi, as one of seven acts in a half-hour program beginning at 5:4PM Doha time in the Al Bayt Stadium, and you can catch the Doha Metro to this site, which is 22 miles away.   5:45PM Doha time is 9:45AM in New York and 4:45AM in Honolulu.  Their song festival continues for several weeks.

The U.S. will lose to England on Friday, November 25 at 10PM.  The finals will be held on Sunday, December 18, which is Qatar National Day, at 6PM. After its all over, this venue will become a 5-star hotel.

I thought I'd also show the table I usually provide on Thursdays and Fridays.

    From Worldometer (new  COVID-19 deaths yesterday):

          DAY  USA  WORLD    Brazil    India    South Africa

2020

June     9     1093     4732         1185        246       82

July    22      1205     7128         1293      1120     572

Aug    12      1504     6556        1242        835     130

Sept     9      1208      6222       1136       1168       82

Oct     21      1225      6849         571        703       85

Nov    25       2304    12025        620        518      118

Dec    30       3880    14748       1224       299      465

2021

Jan     14       4142    15512       1151        189     712

Feb      3       4005    14265       1209       107      398

Mar      2       1989     9490        1726       110      194

April     6        906    11787         4211       631       37

May     4        853     13667        3025      3786     59 

June    1        287    10637         2346      3205      95

 July    7         251      8440        1595        817      411

Aug     4         656    10120        1118        532      423 

Sept   22      2228      9326          839       279     124

Oct      6       2102      8255          543       315       59

Nov    3        1436      7830         186        458       23

Dec     1       1633      8475          266        477       28

2022

Jan     7        2025      6729         148         285     140

Feb     2        2990   12012          946        991      175

Mar     2        1778     7756          335         173       28 

Apr     1          439      4056         290          52       12

May    5          225      2404         151            ?        64

June    2         216      1413         130          10        31

July    6          316      1627         335           35       12 

Aug    4          311       2138         258          70         ?

Sep    1          272       1732         174            ?         ?

Oct     6          281       1305         119            9         ?

Nov    3          167         980           16            ?         ?

        10          148         985           42            6         ?

        19            66         567           36           21        ?

Summary:

• Really good news.  The new deaths/day figure has dramatically dropped.  The world leaders in new deaths/day (with new deaths/million population in the parentheses):
• #1 Japan  101 (0.8)
• #2  USA  66 (0.2)
• #3  S. Korea  65 (1)
• #4  Russia  62 (0.4)
• #5  Taiwan  59 (2)
• Taiwan was world #1 new deaths/day/million, Chile #2 and S. Korea #3.
• A look at new cases/day yesterday.
• #1 Japan  89,887
• #2 S. Korea  50,435
• #3 France  50,435
• #8 USA  6,194
• #14 China  2,137
• #15 Singapore 1,666
• #27 Qatar  147

Congratulations, WHO should shortly declare the end of the pandemic.  In Dubai, no matter where you go NO ONE IS WEARING A MASK, except us.

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ARE WE GETTING TOO OLD?

Swerving away from eternal life to the other end of the moral spectrum, the following was published today in The Huffington Post:

BACKGROUND

I am currently featuring Eternal Life in my daily report, which is Chapter 2 of Simple Solutions for Humanity. Globally, almost 60 million die each year. This total could well drop by a huge fraction if the aging gene is found and checked. Developed countries are already getting old. Eternal Life could become a real problem.

As an early step, look for a full court press in the U.S. Congress on health. I expect some sensible action here, especially with the arrival of Al Franken. No, not because he is the medical savior, but because he is now the 60th Democrat in the U.S. Senate. 

However, wait till they need to later re-look at retirement, as the 65 age requirement was enacted in 1935 when the life expectancy was 62. Yes, in 1983 an adjustment was made to increase this age to 67 by 2027, but by then the life expectancy will be 82. There is a significant disconnect here with reality, but this condition is also encouraged by a private sector desiring better educated and cheaper youth over less productive and expensive elders.  

See #6 above to view how long Europeans, Japanese and Americans can enjoy retirement.  Mind you, I'm all for this terrible situation in my present capacity.  Appreciate, then, below, how AARP will continue to fight for me .

POPULATION

While the world population today is 6.8 billion (click to get current number), you might find interest in how we came to be. It is estimated that there have been about 100 billion of us since a little more than 150,000 years ago when Homo sapiens appeared. Halfway into our existence, about 74,000 years ago, we almost went extinct when Mt. Toba, another Sumatran volcano, erupted, keeping the world "dark" for six years. Our population dropped to, perhaps 1,000. As recently as 10,000 BC, there might still have only been a thousand of us, or maybe as much as 10,000. There are no census reports. Estimates vary, but there were probably several hundred thousand humans around the time of Jesus Christ in the Year Zero.

The first billion was reached in 1804, second in 1927, fourth in 1974 and the next doubling to 8 billion is expected to occur in 2025. Nine billion is now looming for around 2050 or later. We might never reach 10 billion for reasons to be presented. However, considering resource availability, the ideal world population should certainly be far less than the current 6.8 billion. Some doomsdayers say it is already too late.

Our population reached two peaks: 2.2% annual growth in 1963 and 163 million births about a decade ago, now already down to 137 million/year. This growth rate, fortunately, has been halved today.

China has the highest population with 1.3 billion, India is #2 at 1.1 billion (but will overtake China by 2030), Europe is #3 with 0.5 billion and the USA #4 with 0.3 billion. India will gain #1 status in two decades. In 1900, Africa had 8% of the people and Europe had 24%. In 2150, the prediction is that Africa will have 24% and Europe 5%.

ARE WE GETTING TOO OLD?

The answer is yes for developed countries, and here is what is happening. Much of Europe is already experiencing negative population growth. Russia, at 140 million today, will drop to 110 million in 2050. Japan, now at 127 million, will sink below 100 million in 2050. Interestingly enough, the U.S. is still growing (see #3 above--note that the USA is the only country above 2.0 on fertility alone), 40% of this by immigration. Hmm, that border issue? Maybe we do need more youth. Our superpower status should be completely unchallenged by mid century because even China, because of their current birth control policy, will get old before becoming rich.

Thus, another huge economic crisis is looming because, for developed countries, in the 80's, 5 workers supported a retired person. This has dropped to 4:1 and will crash to 2.2:1 in 2050. The current Economist has a special report on aging populations, and much of the following is extracted from that feature.

Let's look at China, for if they get serious about one child per family, this individual will have two parents and four grandparents to support, or 1:6. Note that this ratio has reversed. Of course, China does not have that strict a policy and some of the grandparents will not be around. In any case, the ratio could well be less than 1:1. The two countries we most toss around as current and future enemies, China and Russia, will thus have huge internal problems over the next few decades. The time might now already be at hand to shift our lopsided national security expenses toward more humanitarian pursuits in anticipation of their decline. Iran and North Korea will not stimulate a nuclear winter.

Yes, we still are wrestling with our economy, and coming down the pike are Peak Oil and Global Warming. If the American Clean Energy and Security Act is a sign of how effectively we are considering these issues, I shudder to think what will happen to aging, for more than half of our population will be older than 50 by 2025. In particular, watch out for AARP (formerly known as the American Associated of Retired Persons). 

The whole point of the above is that decisions on retirement age must be made, if not now, very soon, or the politics of the situation will make necessary decisions impossible. Oh, Eternal Life? Never mind.

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The Dow Jones Industrials rose 57 to 8504, while world markets also mostly increased.  Crude oil is now just below $70/barrel.  Interesting how Saudi Arabia a few months ago indicated that $70/bbl was just about right, and the price has indeed vacillated around that price.  Gold rose $12/toz to $941.  

My blog stock challenge today is at 1.56 (that is, I am ahead by 56%).

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If you were wondering why the traditional Atlantic hurricane from off the African coast has not made an appearance, note how cool the waters are in the East Atlantic.  But give it some time.

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THE FUTURE OF POPULATION

The Economist last week reported on "Women and Work," with one chart particularly catching my attention, that the world population birth rate has significantly dropped over the past half a century:

The world rate was halved from 5 to 2.5 children/woman, the USA fell by a third from 3.4 to just over 2, China tumbled from 6 to below subsistence, 1.8, and Japan from 3 to not much over 1.

The world fertility rate by color follows:

   7–8 children

   6–7 children

   5–6 children

   4–5 children

   3–4 children

   2–3 children

   1–2 children

   0–1 children

The number of people on our globe depends on who you ask.  The United Nations announced a population of 7 billion on 31October2011.  The  U.S. Census Bureau today has this figure at:


World 6,979,795,370
20:17 UTC (EST+5) Dec 07, 2011

The ten largest countries are:

World population (millions)
#	Top ten most populous	1990	2008	2025*
1	China	1,141	1,333	1,458
2	India	849	1,140	1,398
3	US	250	304	352
4	Indonesia	178	228	273
5	Brazil	150	192	223
6	Pakistan	108	166	226
7	Bangladesh	116	160	198
8	Nigeria	94	151	208
9	Russia	148	142	137
10	Japan	124	128	126
	World total	5,265	6,688	8,004

Note that Japan is not growing at all, while Russia will experience a drop in population.

The following seems to hint that the world population might hit a peak at 8 billion sometime after 2040.  My Huffington Post article of June, however, predicts 7 billion in 2050.  How can that be?  Well, I fear that Peak Oil in combination with Global Warming will so seriously affect the economy that the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse (I replaced War with...) will prevail with...poverty, pestilence, famine and death.

The growth in Africa, though, looks ominous, and, I suspect this is where these unanticipated deaths will occur.

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The Dow Jones Industrials rose 46 to 12,196, with world markets mostly down.  Gold jumped $10/toz to $1739, while the WTI crude is at $100/barrel and the Brent Spot at $110/barrel.

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Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Alenga is west of north Australia, but is weakening and should pose no threat to land.

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